I’m happy with the two losses. Zero complacency and then have to fight back to get some wins. No losing focus like say the Clippers lull since their 35-5 run. Reg season losses are a good thing for a team like us.
2023-24 Celtics
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- Start date
Certainly highlighted some of the same observations from the first Denver game:
- KP cannot guard Jokic
- The Celtics badly needed another widebody---Tillman ain't perfect but he's a big addition (puzzled Al didn't play more---he was solid vs Jokic in initial game)
- Either the Celtics need to shoot better from 3 or they are going to be in trouble vs Denver
.....and, the Celtics absolutely have the weapons to beat these guys.
- KP cannot guard Jokic
- The Celtics badly needed another widebody---Tillman ain't perfect but he's a big addition (puzzled Al didn't play more---he was solid vs Jokic in initial game)
- Either the Celtics need to shoot better from 3 or they are going to be in trouble vs Denver
.....and, the Celtics absolutely have the weapons to beat these guys.
The last time the Celtics didn't beat every single team in the regular season but won the Finals was 1983-84. That one team was the Lakers. Between Henderson's steal, the heat game in Game, and ML Carr deeming it an 'all-out war', that series had it all.
It has no statistical bearing of any sort but I found it fascinating in a media-esque angle sort of way in parallels regarding the regular season too of the Denver losses this season from 40 years ago:
-1983-84 Celtics vs. Lakers at home: 2-point loss.
-2023-24 Celtics vs. Nuggets at home: 2-point loss
-1983-84 Celtics at Lakers: 109-115 final score, 224 total points.
-2023-24 Celtics at Nuggets: 108-116 final score, 224 total points.
...and who did those Celtics play after losing in LA? The Suns in Phoenix. Just like this year, the Suns are next. in what I tend to think is the finals matchup a plurality of the time. If you really want to run with this like Roger Bannister, would a Knicks second-round matchup and Bucks Conference Finals matchup really surprise you?
It has no statistical bearing of any sort but I found it fascinating in a media-esque angle sort of way in parallels regarding the regular season too of the Denver losses this season from 40 years ago:
-1983-84 Celtics vs. Lakers at home: 2-point loss.
-2023-24 Celtics vs. Nuggets at home: 2-point loss
-1983-84 Celtics at Lakers: 109-115 final score, 224 total points.
-2023-24 Celtics at Nuggets: 108-116 final score, 224 total points.
...and who did those Celtics play after losing in LA? The Suns in Phoenix. Just like this year, the Suns are next. in what I tend to think is the finals matchup a plurality of the time. If you really want to run with this like Roger Bannister, would a Knicks second-round matchup and Bucks Conference Finals matchup really surprise you?
It's clear that Denver represents the most difficult potential playoff matchup for the Celtics, and may still possess the better overall roster when it comes to playoff style basketball. Nuggets should probably be favored in a Finals matchup. But the edge seems fairly small; Celtics should have won the first one at home, and deserved to lose this one.
Too small a sample size, or is it safe to say that Denver would pose considerable problems for Boston in the finals, should both teams make it there? Doesn't appear to be a good matchup for the Celtics. Absolutely zero answer for Jokic. Which, of course, is true for most teams, but though that is true, doesn't make it any less true for Boston. He just destroys them.
I think it’s reasonable to say that Denver would pose considerable problems for the Celtics. They are defending champs and they have the best player in the league. Celtics are certainly capable of beating them but it requires them to reach a level that they’ve reached against most of the league this year but, for some reason, not Denver.
In some respects, I want the media to dump on this team. Get angry for the playoffs and let your play do the talking. The Celtics aren’t winning a title with the version of Tatum we saw last night.
Fun to watch this after the game, really was some high level basketball. A couple thoughts:
PP really did nothing and got targeted defensively, as some feared might be the case in the playoffs.
Quiet night for Horford. Tillman got some run and looked decent but they need a little more out of the bench.
Tatum just looked passive and unengaged. Maybe the altitude bothers him more than others. Got beat defensively and on the boards by Gordon all night.
Wow JB. Maybe one of the best games I've seen him have. Was a force defensively as well. Just gotta make some FTs.
Didn't get much offensively from Jrue and DW until Holiday's late game flurry. I thought both were solid otherwise.
Porzingis was good overall but can't handle Jokic in the post, obviously.
Good points. CJM seemed to go with a playoff like 9 man rotation. The Celtics bench came up small and was underwhelming with only 10 points for the game whereas Denver's reserves played well while Jokic was sitting and their bench scored 30 points.
JB was spectacular, Tatum was not.
I think I would have liked to see more KP pick and roll action.
The Celtics nearly stole a W despite Tatum and the bench having off nights. I wonder what we would be talking about had Tatum's open three gone in with 45 seconds left and the Celtics won the game.
Good thing there are none of those teams in the playoffs. /s
Seriously though (and I didn't see the game last night), this reminds me of that Celtics analysis that said this team has to be able to win the rock fights, because that's what the playoffs are. I think Jaylen is a guy you want in a rock fight. I'm not yet convinced Tatum is.
Ten Takeaways is always worth reading. A couple snippets:
One thing that this game got me asking myself, and I don’t think I have an answer yet, is, “If you’re getting open threes, but the process is bad in context to how the defense plays you, and what they’re willing to live with, are they still good shots? Or are you playing into their trap? After all, there’s a reason they’re willing to live with that outcome based on the process to generate the attempt.”
I’ll be mulling over that thought process for a while. But right now, just an hour after watching the game back, I feel like the perimeter-based offense lacked secondary actions to really blow the coverage open and score from a position of control rather than a position of acceptance.
Denver clearly wanted to limit Tatum. The point of having Porzingis is that he’s another star who can change the game and force defensive alterations. We haven’t seen him operate as a playmaking hub, and it may not be something that works over a prolonged stretch. Yet, for a few minutes in a quarter, when you’re looking to change the flow, there are far worse options to be explored.
https://www.celticsblog.com/2024/3/8/24094201/slim-margin-for-error-10-takeaways-from-boston-celtics-denver-nuggets-jaylen-brown-jayson-tatum-nba
One thing that this game got me asking myself, and I don’t think I have an answer yet, is, “If you’re getting open threes, but the process is bad in context to how the defense plays you, and what they’re willing to live with, are they still good shots? Or are you playing into their trap? After all, there’s a reason they’re willing to live with that outcome based on the process to generate the attempt.”
I’ll be mulling over that thought process for a while. But right now, just an hour after watching the game back, I feel like the perimeter-based offense lacked secondary actions to really blow the coverage open and score from a position of control rather than a position of acceptance.
Denver clearly wanted to limit Tatum. The point of having Porzingis is that he’s another star who can change the game and force defensive alterations. We haven’t seen him operate as a playmaking hub, and it may not be something that works over a prolonged stretch. Yet, for a few minutes in a quarter, when you’re looking to change the flow, there are far worse options to be explored.
https://www.celticsblog.com/2024/3/8/24094201/slim-margin-for-error-10-takeaways-from-boston-celtics-denver-nuggets-jaylen-brown-jayson-tatum-nba
Yeah, this was my takeaway too. They usually are able to dictate terms on offense and force teams to react, but that was almost never happening against Denver. I'd need to really watch the tape to see why, but it seemed to start with Tatum not generating advantages, even with 2 on the ball against him frequently.
Denver was also able to be physical on KP and not let him get his usual stuff going. Once Tatum and KP are out of the picture, it's tough. Jaylen got his and kept them in it, but you just don't generate enough quality 3s to open up the defense that way.
Thanks for posting. I think this point Adam makes - "At times, we see the Celtics executing at this level. We know they’re capable of it. However, it’s the consistency of the Nuggets that is impressive. Every action is as precise as the last. Every defensive coverage is structured, and every offensive movement has a purpose. This will be a good learning experience for the Celtics. We know they’re a championship-caliber team, but now they know what it takes to have championship-caliber consistency." - is the most important for the Cs' chances this year.
Will the Cs be able to execute consistently - as opposed to just being better than the other team - in a championship series? We know DEN can. And we'll never know if the Cs can until they win it all.
Someone upthread said that they hope someone else takes out DEN. So do I. BOS has a much better shot against any other Western team - even LAC - than DEN IMO.
It's too easy to get into the game of "I hope we avoid X team." That happened in 2020 and 2023 with avoiding the Bucks, and then the Heat knocked us out anyway.
Fuck avoiding Denver. I hope that Tatum puts on his big boy pants and picks apart these constant doubles they send, and that the team locks in and shuts down the non-Jokic bench lineups. Take these fuckers out.
Obviously BOS will have to play the opponents put in front of them and if they get DEN, I believe the Cs have another gear to reach and that they get there at least 4 times in a 7 game series.
But I won't shed a tear if DEN gets bounced before the Finals.
We got a snapshot of what playoff Pritchard might look like.
Tough for him to get engaged against a disciplined team that will hunt him out. He heaved one 3, he can't play unless he is adding value offensively.
Over the next 20 games we should see a heavy dose of Double BIGs. Denver's (& MIL) size could be troublesome. Wish we had seen a little more of Jrue aggressively fronting Joker. Letting Nikola comfortably catch a pass & back everyone down isn't a path to success.
Not many options with Joker, but Jrue relentlessly shoving/fronting him before getting the ball is one way to get him barking at the Refs and less involved in the game.
they have to know when to stop taking 3's--Denver didn't take as many and drove and got a lot of FTs--I think the key against Denver is tire Jokic out
Imo the issue was that they couldn't get enough 3s or drives. Denver was staying comfortable on defense for the most part, and wasn't forced into tough decisions.
It's rarely a decision of "oh we want to take more 3s" or "oh we want to get to the paint". It's about getting the opposing defense out of its comfort zone, and then seeing what they give up once they're in rotation. The Cs simply didn't force enough rotation, and most of that was on Tatum. Hopefully he is a lot more engaged when these teams meet in the Finals.
He was just invisible for most of the night. It's one thing when he shoots 6-20, but 5-13 makes it seem like he was sleepwalking. Tatum doesn't need to be the best player in every series for Boston to win the title (and it seems pretty unlikely he'll be the best in a finals series against Denver regardless of how well he plays), but he can't be the 5th best player on the court like he was last night.
If we're looking for silver linings (other than JB being unstoppable everywhere except for the free throw line), the Celtics really did a great job on Jamal Murray. In the first game, Murray had 35/8/5 on 21 shots with just 1 turnover, last night he was 19/6/8 on 18 shots with 5 turnovers (including that terrible one in the final minute, which nearly sunk Denver). Boston doesn't have any answers for Jokic, but it didn't make sense with the number of good to great perimeter defenders we have that Murray was so unstoppable in their first matchup. This was better.
They definitely figured out something as they were picking Murray up high and noticably messing with his dribble similar to how some teams defend (and fail of late) Jaylen. The result was Murray giving up the ball or taking a tough shot.
These games are so close. Maybe you clean up the back cuts on D or the FTs/3PM on O and that's the difference. But Denver has multiple problems to solve. Gordon and Watson did a lot of damage.
I hadn't really thought of Denver as an athletic team, but the supporting cast (KCP, Gordon, Watson, Braun, Nnaji) gives them some tough length and athleticism to deal with.
Should they consider starting Horford (for Jrue) against Denver (& maybe MIL) and just switch between Al & Tillman guarding Joker?
Its a waste of KPs talents (as a help defender) for him to body Jokic & get tossed around like a ragdoll.
I liked the idea of Jrue fronting Nikola for short minutes. CJM used it late in the game 2-3X (& was effective)
I'd keep the regular starting lineup same vs Denver, but do a pretty early (3-4 minutes in?) swap in of Al. That might be for KP if he's got fouls, or a guard.
I don't know what the next scheme is; I do not expect it to be Jrue in any material way. I do wonder if you bascially want 35-40 minutes with Tillman or Horford behind Jokic, really trying to be physical and wear him down, and a bit of Porzingis doing so. You want Porzingis out there vs Jokic' backup for those limited minutes. And so that means you are two bigs more than usual, with Porzingis more on Porter and helping on Jokic. Denver writers have noted that a burly guy behind him and a traditional 5 as a rover who can shade towards him is the least--bad/sometimes effective defense and Celtics have the guys to do that some.
I can't diagram it, but I could imagine trying more late doubles on him. That largely failed last night, and he's such a good passer it may not be worth it. But a guy like Jrue or White could possibly try it from behind the play on occasion and cause issues or draw a charge on a spin. It's a couple posessions---that's all you can really do.
The other thing you'd like Porzingis to be able to do, but which may not be teachable at this point in his life, is to lean in more low on Jokic---not because he's going to stop Jokic, but because it sets up two things he should try a couple times a game: a full-on flop when there's upper body contact (he sort of tried one late, but badly) and the 'pull the chair' move where you anticipate Jokic making a low push with his body and step fully away, usually putting Jokic on the floor. Porzingis plays him straight up and he simply cannot stop Joker that way....as we've seen for two games now.
Jokic is deservedly the MVP...but Porzingis on him just makes it too easy. The bottom line is he's going to get most of his, and you have to put up enough the other way. Celts need a bit better three point shooting than we saw in these two games, or a few more transition hoops. And we did see that Jokic struggles to guard Porzingis outside, so part of the answer is making him work hard (and exposing his limits) defensively. They tried hiding him on Jrue which didn't work, and there isn't anyone on Celtics Jokic can guard in space....so that needs to be an offensive focus, both to score and to make him work more.
IOW: in order to win a championship playing well is necessary.
IOW2: if the celts players play like we have seen them when they are at their best, no one (including Denver) beats them.
For example (if the last game is a lesson) Tatum being better disciplined when defenses focus on him, Jrue hitting his open shots, and D White reawakening.
IOW3: shortcuts and clever schemes can help a bit, but against the best won't substitute for playing well.
Maybe I'm the only one but I see a difference between execution and playing well. The Cs are so talented that against most teams, so long as a few of them play well, they will beat most teams. But execution is a different thing. It's about all five guys being on the same page on both ends of the court play after play. Maybe it's just that Jokic is so good he makes things easy - I mean DEN throws the ball to him most of the time and runs sets off of that - but one hallmark of their championship run was that they executed really well on offense and particularly defense.
The Cs are going to have to up their level of execution from both of the games they played against DEN. I'm sure they can and hopefully they will!
Well stated. I recollect from last year's championship; Denver often would turn it up and execute for a chunk of the 4th quarter -- and take control of the game.
And it was NOT always Jokic -- they got several minutes of effective play (i.e.; score several times in a row) from a number of players.
I want to see this team do it, and I think they can. Its on them.
Maybe JM and the rest of the brain trust can administer psychological exercises to help?
You're describing most Celtics' wins this year. They turn it up in the 3rd or 4th, lots of different guys score, they execute on both ends, and it's a win.
Denver didn't win every game last postseason. They dropped one to Minny, two to Phoenix, and one to Miami. Easily could have lost one or two to LAL.
The Celtics are winning in EXACTLY the manner you describe. Obviously whether they can do so in the playoffs is another question, but the regular season has been an unqualified success to this point.
They’re doing it to a ton of playoff teams in the regular season so that’s at least a nice plus.. even in games like tonite where one of their stars sits out.
Quick schedule update:
- 19 games remaining
- 7 of those games will be against above .500 teams
- Circled ones: PHX, MIL, @CHI, @NOLA, OKC, SAC, @MIL, NYK
- Added @CHI since we may see them in Round 1
- 4 BTBs the rest of the way
The season-long KP/Horford shrink wrap is going extremely well.
Expect some extra rest for the TOP6 down the home stretch against the lottery teams + BTBs.
More CJM rotational & zone experiments.
Reminder: 54.5 was the over/under win total for the Celtics before the season started.
The vast majority of the mouthbreathers here, myself included, had the OVER to start the season.
If you had the UNDER, mea culpas are good for the soul.
I'd guess 63-19 with plenty of pearl-clutching from the NBA Media with every loss.
- 19 games remaining
- 7 of those games will be against above .500 teams
- Circled ones: PHX, MIL, @CHI, @NOLA, OKC, SAC, @MIL, NYK
- Added @CHI since we may see them in Round 1
- 4 BTBs the rest of the way
The season-long KP/Horford shrink wrap is going extremely well.
Expect some extra rest for the TOP6 down the home stretch against the lottery teams + BTBs.
More CJM rotational & zone experiments.
Reminder: 54.5 was the over/under win total for the Celtics before the season started.
The vast majority of the mouthbreathers here, myself included, had the OVER to start the season.
If you had the UNDER, mea culpas are good for the soul.
I'd guess 63-19 with plenty of pearl-clutching from the NBA Media with every loss.
Yeah, I had the under when we did that poll. Didn’t realize the extent to which KP and Jrue are upgrades, or how much improved the coaching would be. Several of the holdover players have improved as well. Luckily I had no money backing up my bad instinct.
This morning, Tankathon shows them as having by far the easiest remaining schedule. Theirs is at .415 and the next easiest is Miami at .446.
This morning, Tankathon shows them as having by far the easiest remaining schedule. Theirs is at .415 and the next easiest is Miami at .446.
Interesting to hear Durant's thoughts on the way the Cs play.
View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzellNBA/status/1766815646220722341?s=20
Short story: He's a fan.
View: https://twitter.com/NoaDalzellNBA/status/1766815646220722341?s=20
Short story: He's a fan.
I can't wait for the last five games of the year when everything is clinched and Pritchard averages 30, 5 and 10 in 44 minutes/per.
I think that win last night was important for their confidence. Durant brought it, Tatum did not and they still controlled almost the entire game.
I think that win last night was important for their confidence. Durant brought it, Tatum did not and they still controlled almost the entire game.
Thanks for posting
KD probably scratching his head on how they can lose by double digits at HOME when he scores an efficient 45 (with Tatum not matching)
Game ball to Luke Kornet, guys are looking for his PnR
Boston now has a higher winning percentage, 82%, 14-3 with KP not playing than the 76%, 35-11 when he does play. Credit to Kornet, and Quetta earlier in the season, and to Horford of course.
Impressive to see the Celtics winning at a 67 game pace without KP. The 62 win pace with him isn’t too shabby either. The management of this team‘s big guys has been impeccable this season
Impressive to see the Celtics winning at a 67 game pace without KP. The 62 win pace with him isn’t too shabby either. The management of this team‘s big guys has been impeccable this season
What does it mean that I look forward to the G league games? I'm always curious as to what these guys have.
I'm all for resting players, but let's not rest the whole squad and lose to the Trailblazers, please. Start 3 of the starters and pull them if/when it gets out of hand. You blow this game and you just increase the likelihood you need to play starters against a more competitive, physical team down the line.
I don't think there's any realistic chance the Celtics don't end the season with the top seed.
