2023-2024 General NBA Season Thread

PedroKsBambino

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Expressed less as an inevitable conclusion, I would say Doc's gaps around adjustments, creativity, and xs and os are still likely to come up along the way. His skill at getting guys to buy-in is part of the solution---and only part of it.

We saw him mostly get Harden to buy in last year....and ultimately, he still wasn't able to get the team to do what it needed to motivation-wise or execution-wise in games 6-7.

He's an improvement, and he's still not a top-tier coach. I personally suspect he's a downgrade from Coach Bud - some similar gaps, and while some different strengths I'd take my chances wtih Bud first. This being a vet team who might not need as much intricacy from the head coach is only caveat there for me
 

lars10

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What it looks like to me with Bucks is that the reason they fired Griffith becasue the team had quit on him and the ways that showed up---transition defense being invisible, etc.---were the evidence of it. And Doc just getting them to try again is a big win, and a validation of the decision to jettison Griffith.

I don't know if it's 100% real - e.g. sustainable and against good and different offenses - but I can believe pretty easily that trying makes a big difference for a defense and that seems to be the most basic thing going on here!

Doc isn't a great coach, but he is a good people coach still. That is at least part of whta Bucks needed, seems to me
Let’s see how they do over the next 12. Their schedule over the last 9 was pretty easy. If they play well in these next 12 against quite a few playoff teams.. then maybe we can say Doc has gotten them to buy in.
 

InstaFace

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By Bk-Ref's Simple Rating System (net rating adjusted for strength of schedule), 5 of the top 6 teams in the NBA are in the Western Conference. Cavs are #7, followed by the Knicks, Bucks and Sixers. The East also has the worst 3 teams in the league (Charlotte, Washington and Detroit, though Charlotte has somehow won 6 more games than the other 2 despite a meaningfully worse rating).

In 2008, the East was similarly barren, except for our eventual ECF opponent Detroit, which was #4 by SRS (after the Lakers and Utah). #s 5-8 were all Western Conference, then the Magic (dispatched by Detroit in 5 in the ECSF). The 8th-best team in the West (And top 8 all made the playoffs) was better than the 4th-best team in the East.

This year is shaping up to be a similar set of patsies in our conference. The difference between our SRS (11.45) and #2 OKC's (7.76) is about the same as the difference between OKC and #7 Cleveland.
 

Tudor Fever

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Speaking of SRS, ours is currently the best in franchise history by a considerable margin (11.45 this year, #s 2 and 3 are 07-08 at 9.30 and 85-86 at 9.06.) That’s….impressive.
 

lovegtm

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Feels a lot like the 2014-15 Warriors: they had previously come up short a couple times (far, far earlier in the playoffs than the Celtics), but then when the season started it was obvious they were the best team, and that carried on right through the Finals. There were minor hiccups against Memphis (where they pioneered the strategy of just ignoring Tony Allen) and the Cavs (where they figured out how to hit Dray on the short roll over and over), but they were clearly head and shoulders above. (Would have been different with healthy Kyrie and K-Love though.)

It's funny that Steph was already a year older than Tatum when they won that title. Tatum has been through so much more scrutiny and come so much closer.
 

lovegtm

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I don’t think the Celtics are head and shoulders above Denver though, and they wouldn’t have the best player or coach in the series.
Jokic is the best player in the world and it's not close, but I don't think Mazzulla is behind Malone in any way at all.

Celtics have also beaten plenty of teams in the playoffs where you wouldn't have said Cs had the best player going in. The whole "best player in the series" thing is a cute heuristic, but there are so, so many exceptions that it doesn't have much information value imo.

Prior to the series in 2022, everyone would have said that Brooklyn had the best player, and that Milwaukee had the best player. Butler is arguable, but he was maybe the best player in that series.

They lost to the Warriors and Steph was the best player, but the real problem was that Tatum was the 5th best player, and not 2nd best. With 2nd best Tatum, Celtics win that in 5-6 games.
 

Euclis20

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I don’t think the Celtics are head and shoulders above Denver though, and they wouldn’t have the best player or coach in the series.
I don't think the 2015 warriors were head and shoulders ahead above a healthy cavs team, but they were largely without kyrie, and love missed the entire series. If the Celtics play the nuggets and both Murray and Gordon can't play, I expect Boston will look miles better than Denver, too.
 

benhogan

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Don’t look now….but Doc has this Bucks team defending like they were pre-Lillard. Over the last 10 games they trail only Minnesota in Defensive Rating, have won 5 in a row, 4 of these on the road and 4 of the 5 wins by double digits.
It definitely feels like they are improved since AS Break
But the last 3 games: Charlotte, Charlotte, Chicago

The next 8 games are against winning teams, very interested in seeing how this plays out over the next few weeks.

Clippers are on a BTB road game tonight. Do Kawhi, PG, Harden get rest on BTBs?
 

benhogan

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I'm getting a kick out of the NBA media treating the 2023 Nuggets like they are the 2018 Warriors.

Great they won the Championship last season but they aren't some multi-year Finals playing juggernaut.
They faced 2 PLAY-IN teams in the WC & NBA Finals. One of the softest FINALs opponents ever, especially when Caleb Martin stopped playing like MJ.

They have by far the best player in the NBA, but their +4.2 Net diff this season is pretty meh. I doubt they survive a brutal WC, but if they do, there will be scar tissue by the Finals.
 

tims4wins

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I'm getting a kick out of the NBA media treating the 2023 Nuggets like they are the 2018 Warriors.

Great they won the Championship last season but they aren't some multi-year Finals playing juggernaut.
They faced 2 PLAY-IN teams in the WC & NBA Finals. One of the softest FINALs opponents ever, especially when Caleb Martin stopped playing like MJ.

They have by far the best player in the NBA, but their +4.2 Net diff this season is pretty meh. I doubt they survive a brutal WC, but if they do, there will be scar tissue by the Finals.
The Pelicans have a higher point differential despite playing 5 more games against the west.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It definitely feels like they are improved since AS Break
But the last 3 games: Charlotte, Charlotte, Chicago

The next 8 games are against winning teams, very interested in seeing how this plays out over the next few weeks.

Clippers are on a BTB road game tonight. Do Kawhi, PG, Harden get rest on BTBs?
George had been out since the All-Star break w knee flare up so I don’t expect him to go tonight on backend and Westbrook broke his hand last game so he is out. Harden and Kawhi have played B2B all year so expecting them to go. Clips played a playoff style slugfest last night so good spot for Bucks to take advantage of this.
 
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InstaFace

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I'm getting a kick out of the NBA media treating the 2023 Nuggets like they are the 2018 Warriors.
OK but they also came to our house and beat us, ending our like 20-game home win streak. In a game where we had everyone available, hardly turned the ball over at all (2 TOV to Denver's 9), and Denver shot poorly from 3 (8 for 31, .258).

We'll get a chance to set the record straight in Denver on Thursday. But the media holding them up as a team that has what it takes to threaten us is hardly a reach. Maybe they're not the Hamptons Five over there, but if there's one other team in the league that deserves to get hyped, it's the Nuggets.
 

Euclis20

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I'm getting a kick out of the NBA media treating the 2023 Nuggets like they are the 2018 Warriors.

Great they won the Championship last season but they aren't some multi-year Finals playing juggernaut.
They faced 2 PLAY-IN teams in the WC & NBA Finals. One of the softest FINALs opponents ever, especially when Caleb Martin stopped playing like MJ.

They have by far the best player in the NBA, but their +4.2 Net diff this season is pretty meh. I doubt they survive a brutal WC, but if they do, there will be scar tissue by the Finals.
By far the best player and what seems like an invincible crunch time offense make for a pretty convincing argument against a team (Boston) that hasn't won it all before. Very good point about how last year's title run was against the 2nd weakest possible set of opponents (8 seed, 4 seed, 7 seed, 8 seed is crazy), and their winning percentage last year (.646) would be just the 8th best this season. It feels like the top of the west is a lot stronger this year (Memphis lost Ja and was the 2 seed, inexperienced and defensively challenged Sac was the 3 seed and Phoenix was the 4 seed having barely played together), so we'll see how easily they get through the west this spring.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Jokic is the best player in the world and it's not close, but I don't think Mazzulla is behind Malone in any way at all.

Celtics have also beaten plenty of teams in the playoffs where you wouldn't have said Cs had the best player going in. The whole "best player in the series" thing is a cute heuristic, but there are so, so many exceptions that it doesn't have much information value imo.

Prior to the series in 2022, everyone would have said that Brooklyn had the best player, and that Milwaukee had the best player. Butler is arguable, but he was maybe the best player in that series.

They lost to the Warriors and Steph was the best player, but the real problem was that Tatum was the 5th best player, and not 2nd best. With 2nd best Tatum, Celtics win that in 5-6 games.
I went to the Celtics-Nuggets game this year and to me the problem the Celtics have to solve is more micro: KP cannot guard Jokic. The reason I've been banging the drum for a widebody big is watching that closely and thus, thilled that Tillman is here.

But....

Tillman can only play so many minutes and also impacts the offense. So the question is: can they play Porzingis enough to benefit from what he enables offensively without Jokic destroying them at the other end? I am hopeful they can use two bigs to enable that with some Tillman/no Porzingis minutes and some Porzingis vs backup C minutes. To me, more than coaching or the abstract "Jokic is the better player" problem, that's the big one
 

benhogan

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I went to the Celtics-Nuggets game this year and to me the problem the Celtics have to solve is more micro: KP cannot guard Jokic. The reason I've been banging the drum for a widebody big is watching that closely and thus, thilled that Tillman is here.

But....

Tillman can only play so many minutes and also impacts the offense. So the question is: can they play Porzingis enough to benefit from what he enables offensively without Jokic destroying them at the other end? I am hopeful they can use two bigs to enable that with some Tillman/no Porzingis minutes and some Porzingis vs backup C minutes. To me, more than coaching or the abstract "Jokic is the better player" problem, that's the big one
I'd expect a combination of Jrue/Horford/Tillman will guard Joker at different points of the game (same for Giannis)

With KP cross-matching on AG, playing drop rim protection.
We'll get a look-see on Thursday

Anyways, I've got the field-making it over the Nuggets in the WC, where 1-10 is competitive.
Their road is 10X harder than the Celtics, which is a big part of the reason why I find it odd for the NBA Media to say the Nuggets & Boston have separated themselves from the rest of the league
 

PedroKsBambino

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Pretty confident Jrue is too small to guard Jokic; he can spot on Giannis (and has this year). He's strong and low, but Jokic is an absolute load---not at all sure Jrue would even be better than Porzingis for this specific matchup. Jokic also will just shoot over him if need be (which Giannis can't really do, skill-wise)

So, I hope that is no part of the plan! But we'll see....Jrue is awfully good I just think you're asking too much in this case
 

lovegtm

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I went to the Celtics-Nuggets game this year and to me the problem the Celtics have to solve is more micro: KP cannot guard Jokic. The reason I've been banging the drum for a widebody big is watching that closely and thus, thilled that Tillman is here.

But....

Tillman can only play so many minutes and also impacts the offense. So the question is: can they play Porzingis enough to benefit from what he enables offensively without Jokic destroying them at the other end? I am hopeful they can use two bigs to enable that with some Tillman/no Porzingis minutes and some Porzingis vs backup C minutes. To me, more than coaching or the abstract "Jokic is the better player" problem, that's the big one
And yet, Denver had a lot of trouble scoring in the first matchup, even down the stretch.

OK but they also came to our house and beat us, ending our like 20-game home win streak. In a game where we had everyone available, hardly turned the ball over at all (2 TOV to Denver's 9), and Denver shot poorly from 3 (8 for 31, .258).

We'll get a chance to set the record straight in Denver on Thursday. But the media holding them up as a team that has what it takes to threaten us is hardly a reach. Maybe they're not the Hamptons Five over there, but if there's one other team in the league that deserves to get hyped, it's the Nuggets.
I went back and watched those last 5 minutes awhile ago and posted here about it. The Celtics ran really good offense, got great shots (including at the rim), and just missed literally everything. Everything. It wasn't a "make or miss 3s" type situation: they were bricking layups, FTs, middies, 3s......95% of the time that game is a 5-10 point Cs win where we talk about how they pulled away down the stretch once again.

I'm sort of bored of the disclaimer that "Jokic is the best player in the world, and the Nuggets are good", but I think people read way, way too much into that one game.
 

the moops

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I went back and watched those last 5 minutes awhile ago and posted here about it. The Celtics ran really good offense, got great shots (including at the rim), and just missed literally everything. Everything. It wasn't a "make or miss 3s" type situation: they were bricking layups, FTs, middies, 3s......95% of the time that game is a 5-10 point Cs win where we talk about how they pulled away down the stretch once again.
Yea it was a 98 - 97 Boston lead with 4:15 to go

Tatum missed an easy dunk/layup
Horford missed wide open above the break three
Tatum missed a free throw turnaround over Murray (not a good decision by Tatum)
Jaylen missed two free throws
Jaylen missed wide open three
White missed wide open three
Tatum blows by Gordon for a dunk
White missed wide open corner three
Tatum missed layup (probably another bad decision by Tatum - 1 on 3 layup)
Tatum post up turnaround for the win - another miss
 

benhogan

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If current standings remain, and favorites win

Denver would have to beat Sacramento, Minnesota, and OKC to make the finals

Boston would face Indiana, New York, and Milwaukee.

Not sure the east path is all that easier
In your scenario, Minnesota & OKC would have homecourt. Minnesota would be competitive & love OKC...Even the Kings would be a headache.

The Celtics are just a terrible match-up for Milwaukee. If I had concerns it would be with a healthy Knicks team, which is iffy with Randall & MRob. Playoff Heat would be more trouble than those 3.
 

tims4wins

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If current standings remain, and favorites win

Denver would have to beat Sacramento, Minnesota, and OKC to make the finals

Boston would face Indiana, New York, and Milwaukee.

Not sure the east path is all that easier
Is this post in jest?

Edit: to add some substance

Sacto is net +0.3
Minnesota is +6.9 and is 22-8 at home
OKC is +7.9 and is 24-6 at home

And as mentioned, Denver would be the visitor in the Minnesota and OKC series.

vs.

Indiana +1.3 and is 14-16 on the road
NYK + 3.7 and is 16-14 on the road
MIL +4.4 and is 16-14 on the road
 

PedroKsBambino

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And yet, Denver had a lot of trouble scoring in the first matchup, even down the stretch.


I went back and watched those last 5 minutes awhile ago and posted here about it. The Celtics ran really good offense, got great shots (including at the rim), and just missed literally everything. Everything. It wasn't a "make or miss 3s" type situation: they were bricking layups, FTs, middies, 3s......95% of the time that game is a 5-10 point Cs win where we talk about how they pulled away down the stretch once again.

I'm sort of bored of the disclaimer that "Jokic is the best player in the world, and the Nuggets are good", but I think people read way, way too much into that one game.
Don't get me wrong---I believe Celtics were better that night, and would be favored to win. But they had to switch the plan in 1st quarter becasue it was clear KP couldn't guard Jokic, and that is going to continue to be an issue. The Celtics present a lot of issues for Denver, too - Denver's perimeter players can match up wtih only two of the four Celtics "well"; Jokic can be spread out defensively etc.

My point is more that the biggest challenge the Celtics have is a specific tactical one, more than theoretical Jokic or Mike Malone or whatever one
 

benhogan

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Pretty confident Jrue is too small to guard Jokic; he can spot on Giannis (and has this year). He's strong and low, but Jokic is an absolute load---not at all sure Jrue would even be better than Porzingis for this specific matchup. Jokic also will just shoot over him if need be (which Giannis can't really do, skill-wise)

So, I hope that is no part of the plan! But we'll see....Jrue is awfully good I just think you're asking too much in this case
If Jrue can guard a healthy Embiid for 5 minutes to start Q1& Q3, I'd expect CJM to try it out on Joker (who is smaller & more of a playmaker).
 

HomeRunBaker

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If current standings remain, and favorites win

Denver would have to beat Sacramento, Minnesota, and OKC to make the finals

Boston would face Indiana, New York, and Milwaukee.

Not sure the east path is all that easier
Man, I think that is the Celtics cakewalk scenario. Avoid the Miami matchup, Pacers are easily exploitable, the Knicks can’t beat anyone good, and we are the Bucks nightmare matchup.
 

Ed Hillel

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Don’t look now….but Doc has this Bucks team defending like they were pre-Lillard. Over the last 10 games they trail only Minnesota in Defensive Rating, have won 5 in a row, 4 of these on the road and 4 of the 5 wins by double digits.
Would have been nice had a chief competitor not handed them Patrick Beverley to make room for 38 year old Kyle Fucking Lowry...
 

Kliq

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Regarding Denver vs Celtics, not to get too far ahead of ourselves here--but the issue isn't "Can the Celtics stop Jokic?" because I think the answer is probably not, because Jokic's game is pretty much impossible to stop. It will be how well the Celtics can slow down Murray/Porter/Gordon and if the Celtics offense can rip through Denver's defense; both things I'd say are very possible for the Celtics to do without too much good fortune.
 

jon abbey

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the Knicks can’t beat anyone good
I don't know if this is right or not, but we haven't actually seen the Knicks together yet. They were 12-2 with Anunoby in January, including winning in PHI by 36 (when PHI still had Embiid) and beating DEN by 38 (DEN was at full strength). This January version of the team didn't have Mitchell Robinson and Bogdanovic/Burks were not there yet.

NY is quickly running out of time to put together a healthy version of the team for the stretch run and BOS is head and shoulders above everyone in the East (and maybe the whole league), my only point is we haven't seen NY at full strength yet even briefly (Anunoby and Robinson haven't played together yet at all).
 

Euclis20

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I agree Doncic is overrated by the media but I feel like the pendulum has swung wildly to the other end on here. he's still a top 10 player y'all, it's not like he gives everything back on D that he creates on offense. he did basically single handedly carry a Mavs team to the wcf.
Not to completely dismiss his run to the WCF, but it was just one trip, they got destroyed, then they missed the playoffs entirely the following season. Trae Young has brought his team just as far and just as often, and at least he pushed Milwaukee to 6 games in that conference finals loss.
 

jon abbey

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Not to completely dismiss his run to the WCF, but it was just one trip, they got destroyed, then they missed the playoffs entirely the following season. Trae Young has brought his team just as far and just as often, and at least he pushed Milwaukee to 6 games in that conference finals loss.
Doncic missed the first three games in the first round that year and it was only because Brunson outplayed Donovan Mitchell (like he did again last year) that DAL was up 2-1 when Luka came back. DAL went 7-8 with Luka that postseason.
 

snowmanny

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Had a guy next to me last night look up at the Bird/Isiah interview then ask me if I could answer a question without bias…..then asked who I thought was better, Bird or Doncic.
The "bias" that exists in that question is that current players are necessarily better than players from previous generations. Peak Bird was 1984-87: three MVPs, four Finals, two titles, and universally regarded as the best player in the world at a time that Malone and Jabbar were just past peak, Magic was pretty much near peak, Jordan was getting there, etc. etc. And that was only part of his eight year run on All-NBA first team and his MVP voting run of 4-2-2-2-1-1-1-3-2. Luka is great but nobody thinks he's the best player and he hasn't won a conference title.The better comparison is with Royals era Oscar Robertson.

edit -Or Jerry West. Or maybe Steve Nash.
 

Kliq

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Luka is very similar to peak Harden. Incredible offensive talent, can score easily at all three levels, great passer. But very heliocentric, questionable physical conditioning and often lazy defense. He's still so young and he's not as cynical as Harden, but it's very similar discussion around him. Easily one of the best players in the NBA and he may even win the MVP one day, but has some lingering questions about if you can win at the highest level with that kind of style of play.
 

the moops

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Is this post in jest?

Edit: to add some substance

Sacto is net +0.3
Minnesota is +6.9 and is 22-8 at home
OKC is +7.9 and is 24-6 at home

And as mentioned, Denver would be the visitor in the Minnesota and OKC series.

vs.

Indiana +1.3 and is 14-16 on the road
NYK + 3.7 and is 16-14 on the road
MIL +4.4 and is 16-14 on the road
No, not in jest.

I consider Sacramento and Indiana to be equally not a tough matchup. Minnesota's offense is just not good enough to win a playoff series against Jokic. And I would put Milwaukee up against the youngsters in Oklahoma City any day
 

lovegtm

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Man, I think that is the Celtics cakewalk scenario. Avoid the Miami matchup, Pacers are easily exploitable, the Knicks can’t beat anyone good, and we are the Bucks nightmare matchup.
Yeah, I think people sometimes forget that it's the.....playoffs. The other team is always going to have some good players lol. There's no path that is just 3 rounds of the Pistons.
 

Devizier

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At the rate things are going, anyone going up against the Knicks in the playoffs are facing their Westchester roster anyways.
 

benhogan

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No, not in jest.

I consider Sacramento and Indiana to be equally not a tough matchup. Minnesota's offense is just not good enough to win a playoff series against Jokic. And I would put Milwaukee up against the youngsters in Oklahoma City any day
You're not still hanging on to the EC is as good as the WC, are you?
 

DeadlySplitter

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Denver-Boston also had WHite & Horford going scoreless in a 1 point loss. That game was a big outlier in many ways.
 

InstaFace

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As a whole? Of course not. But there is a path that is just as difficult or nearly as difficult in the east as the west
Out of the three East teams with a prayer against us, two are very likely to play each other before playing us (Cleveland and Milwaukee), and the third's locker room resembles a triage ward (Knicks). We play the Knicks at home a few days before the end of the regular season, and if they come in fully healthy and face an A-team lineup and proceed to stomp us, I will worry a little, but until unless that happens - we've swept the season series to date, we have a robot mentality that will avoid big emotional swings, and we match up really well with them to begin with. Same if Embiid somehow manages to return.

By net rating or SRS or whatever, there is basically no path to winning the East that is anywhere near as tough as the most likely paths to winning the West. Again, teams ranked #2 through #6 are all out there. You'd need some major upsets in order for that not to happen.
 

benhogan

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As a whole? Of course not. But there is a path that is just as difficult or nearly as difficult in the east as the west
1. Embiid injury turned Philly into a sub-.500 team. He will subsequently return out of shape and be useless after 2-3 games
2. The Knicks just can't stay healthy.
3. OKC youngsters all jumped (except Giddey)
4. Clippers-Harden honeymoon/love affair is in full bloom (James playing nice until Ballmer drops off his next bag)

Nuggets had the easiest of paths last season and won't find it so gift-wrapped this season.
 

the moops

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1. Embiid injury turned Philly into a sub-.500 team. He will subsequently return out of shape and be useless after 2-3 games
2. The Knicks just can't stay healthy.
3. OKC youngsters all jumped (except Giddey)
4. Clippers-Harden honeymoon/love affair is in full bloom (James playing nice until Ballmer drops off his next bag)

Nuggets had the easiest of paths last season and won't find it so gift-wrapped this season.
1. Embiid comes back at full strength and he continues his MVP level play
2. Knicks are getting all their injuries out of the way now
3. OKC youngsters have jumped, but no team this young makes a deep finals run their first try
4. James Harden continues to James Harden in the playoffs
 

lovegtm

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1. Embiid comes back at full strength and he continues his MVP level play
2. Knicks are getting all their injuries out of the way now
3. OKC youngsters have jumped, but no team this young makes a deep finals run their first try
4. James Harden continues to James Harden in the playoffs
I agree that sleeping on the Knicks is a mistake. If they get healthy, that team is loaded in all ways except missing a real #2 scorer.