This is inaccurate. Duran started the year in AAA and Hernandez had just been moved to SS in the wake of Story’s injury.
Duran was promoted about a week after Duvall hurt his wrist.
Should the Sox sign a right handed bat? If so, who?
- Thread starter kazuneko
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Duran was promoted about a week after Duvall hurt his wrist.
Based on their whole body of work I think Pham is a better bet as a hitter in 2024 than Duvall, though I suppose that is debatable. Re O'Neill as LF vs RF, Cotillo reported as follows just after the trade on December 9:
"On Wednesday, Cora said he expected Abreu to play a lot in right field with Duran splitting time between center and left field and Rafaela, if in the majors, as a center fielder with the ability to mix into the infield. The defensively-limited Yoshida is exclusively limited to left field and will almost surely get more at-bats at designated hitter in 2024. It’s easy to envision O’Neill seeing lots of time in left (his primary position) and covering center if Rafaela is not ready; although he hasn’t played right field since 2019, the Red Sox envision him getting some run out there as well. Rob Refsnyder remains on the roster as a bench option who is capable of hitting lefties; his status on the roster will be determined by health and Rafaela’s readiness."
"On Wednesday, Cora said he expected Abreu to play a lot in right field with Duran splitting time between center and left field and Rafaela, if in the majors, as a center fielder with the ability to mix into the infield. The defensively-limited Yoshida is exclusively limited to left field and will almost surely get more at-bats at designated hitter in 2024. It’s easy to envision O’Neill seeing lots of time in left (his primary position) and covering center if Rafaela is not ready; although he hasn’t played right field since 2019, the Red Sox envision him getting some run out there as well. Rob Refsnyder remains on the roster as a bench option who is capable of hitting lefties; his status on the roster will be determined by health and Rafaela’s readiness."
Yeah, my guess is it's O'Neill in center, Duran in Left, and Abreu in right to start the year most nights. Against LHP Abreu and Duran will sit sometimes for Yoshida/Refsnyder and Rafaela once he joins the big club. One or both of Duran and Abreu will get a chance to play full-time out there, or close to it, but I don't know: I see a lot of people citing Duran's performance against LHP last year as a sign that he'll get at bats against them this year, but he only had 45 PA against them last year because he was almost always sitting against them. His career wrc+ against LHP is just 49.
I think unless that breakout continues, or Abreu shows he can mash against LHP (or at least get on base) Refsnyder will get a lot of those ABs.
And for $1.5 million
I assume he chose Detroit because of playing time but the Sox could have offered him 4-5 games a week if they were willing to agree to give DH time to both Casas and Devers (which would be a good idea). Wonder if he would have been more amenable to a less secure position on the Sox for two or three times what he got from Detroit? Probably would have been worth it.
Yeah, it's also possible the Sox have decided Reyes+Dalbec will give them approximately the same value, and that Urshela would also block Rafaela, etc. I don't know. I'm not super worried about it, I don't think it really moves the needle all that much.And for $1.5 million
I assume he chose Detroit because of playing time but the Sox could have offered him 4-5 games a week if they were willing to agree to give DH time to both Casas and Devers (which would be a good idea). Wonder if he would have been more amenable to a less secure position on the Sox for two or three times what he got from Detroit? Probably would have been worth it.
I think it's a pretty major assumption that an Urshela who accepts a $1.5m one year deal coming off a pelvis fracture is actually healthy. It scans to me like they'll keep rehabbing him in hopes of getting him healthy enough to flip at the deadline.
Do you think that forcing Devers and Casas to split DH time so the team could offer more playing time to Gio Urshela wouldn't be an issue for Devers or Casas? Not to mention, the goal with Casas HAS to be to have him play as much first base as possible in order to get better there, both for the Red Sox and for his career.And for $1.5 million
I assume he chose Detroit because of playing time but the Sox could have offered him 4-5 games a week if they were willing to agree to give DH time to both Casas and Devers (which would be a good idea). Wonder if he would have been more amenable to a less secure position on the Sox for two or three times what he got from Detroit? Probably would have been worth it.
These are people, who have goals and futures in this, or another, organization. It isn't MLB The Show where everything is ones and zeroes. Urshela wants to get another contract after this one, after missing half a season with a broken pelvis. He wants a spot he could play every day, and there is no world where the Red Sox were going to guarantee him that, and I don't blame them, even a little bit.
I want Devers to improve at 3B, but he is already unhappy going into this season so I don't see how pushing him to more of a DH role would improve on that attitude, either.
Anyone else on the market, at least the offensive players that are left, is a marginal upgrade at best. They might be a slight improvement somewhere (Urshela probably is an improvement on Reyes, assuming he comes back healthy), but there aren't any true "holes" that they need to fill.
I hope to see another SP added before the season starts, but I really think the offense is what we can expect to have out there on Opening Day for the most part.
I voted none of these, FWIW.
The pickings just keep getting slimmer. A big part of the pain in this discussion is we really don't know what to expect out of the entire outfield.
I don't think worrying about the players feelings should be put ahead of fielding the best team possible. And I'm sure both are mature enough to handle being DH'd one out of 4 games. Heck Yoshida had enough humility to accept the prospect of being the regular DH this year (when that possible was brought up to him). That said, I do recognize the concerns about Casas and how there is still hope for improvement. Devers meanwhile, feels like a lost cause. Let's remember, his career OAA is the worst in baseball at his position since he broke into the league, and that's despite his remarkable anomaly year in 2019. Simply put, he has no grounds for complaining. Heck, since nothing else has worked maybe increasing his ABs at DH might help light a fire under his butt to improve his fielding.
Anyway, it's a moot point now. Urshela is gone and there doesn't seem to be a different 3b/1b free agent available that could have played the same role (other than Solano who is a horrible fielder at 3b).
I guess I disagree here, because they work hand in hand.
Now, if the player were a clear upgrade, sure, maybe you risk that relationship. But Devers is going to be here for 10 years, Casas will be here hopefully for that long, but at least the next 4. I don't think it is worth risking the relationship with those players for a marginal bench upgrade like Urshela (and while Urshela is gone, everyone else on that list, aside from MAYBE Chapman for defense, fits the same bill, they are all marginal upgrades at best).
I have been pushing for another right-handed bat all winter, so it doesn't seem fair to give up now. I have no faith in Bobby Dalbec being able to be a productive glove or bat for the Red Sox this year, so somebody who could play some outfield and plays 1B well enough to give Casas 15-20 days off is all I'm looking for at this point. Maybe Garrett Cooper, but I was just checking out projections for Will Myers and Evan Longoria to show how little is left right now.
So why are they DHing Yoshida? What about his feelings? Because they recognize the need to upgrade the defense and have an abundance of young outfielders that need playing time. That said, it’s not as if Yoshida was a worse fielder last year (by OAA) than either Casas and Devers; he was better. So are you saying that if the Sox had a glut of young infielders instead of outfielders they wouldn’t considering moving Devers to DH? And to be clear, my suggestion was only to DH him one out of four games. I thought a guy being signed longterm should mean the team has less reason to worry about how these types of decisions might affect the players future with the team.
Let’s face it, although he might not be switched to DH this year, it’s something that is very much in his future. Heck, if Chapman ends up cheaper than expected or could be had for a shorter deal than predicted (or both) I think the Sox should seriously consider making that future a reality this season. You can’t tiptoe around the issue. Devers has been the worst third baseman in baseball since the day he put on the uniform. If he can’t understand that because of that it might be better for the team if he shifted to DH, then maybe they shouldn’t have signed him to that contract. I actually don’t think he’s that hard headed.
So if I could nitpick one thing here...
If the team was actually willing to DH Casas and start Cooper this would be a pretty big upgrade in the field (of course, I don't think they would do that because they still hope Casas will improve). Casas was putrid last year and Cooper was a + fielder at 1b. Solano would also (probably) be a significant upgrade on Casas though he has less experience at 1b.
Even more notably, Michael Taylor would definitely not be a marginal defensive upgrade for this team. Switching from Duran to Taylor and having Duran move over to LF and Yoshida to DH could be an absolutely huge defensive upgrade. The only concern is it's not clear they want to give that many ABs to a 36 year old in a rebuilding year, especially because Rafaella might be able to provide similar value.
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Lost in all of this is that Devers has never had a shortstop playing next to him for a full season as polished and athletic as Story is. Xander was steady but never elite. This can only help him.
Maybe but it should be noted the Sox have been connected to a lot of RH OFs that have signed (Teoscar, Soler, Gurriel, Grichuk) and some that haven’t (Duvall, Taylor). So they’re clearly looking for something there.
Being connected to players by reporters isn't necessarily the same as looking for something. It would be malpractice for Breslow or any GM/POBO to not talk to as many free agents as possible (well, talk to their agents), even if it only consists of checking in once to gauge price and if there's any mutual interest. And that check-in is all it really takes for an agent to be able to whisper to a reporter or two that they have had interest from Team X. Clearly agents think it's beneficial to have clients tied to the Red Sox considering they are a high revenue team that historically has a high payroll. We see it every year.
Nearly every signing/acquisition the Sox made this winter seemingly came out of the blue. There were barely any rumors or suggestions of something happening. The first sign was usually that the deal was done. Which makes me doubt if not the veracity of most of the rumored connections, then the seriousness/intensity of the discussions they hinted at. Not sure we can point to the media rumors regarding Hernandez et al and say that's evidence that they really wanted one of them.
They literally made a two-year offer to Teoscar. He said it himself in an interview.
In lieu of a Jordan Montgomery signing, let the kids play. Is Abreu a starting caliber outfielder? Can Rafaela lay off enough pitcher’s pitches to let Roman Anthony become our very own Kyle Tucker out in right field? If they’re not bolstering the starting rotation, then I think finding answers to these types of questions in 2024 is in the team’s best interest.
If they add a strong piece to the rotation, I’d change my vote from no one to Duvall.
If they add a strong piece to the rotation, I’d change my vote from no one to Duvall.
Honestly, I don't think the team needs a RHH platoon bat. They've got that already in O'Neill or Refsynder. The need a big bat from the right side to play everyday. It would take some other moves, but JD is the best bat available, and if last season was any indication, he's got stuff left in the tank. Getting him would likely require trading one of Yoshida, Duran, or Abreu. And with Rafaela's potential emergence, Refsynder might well become disposable.
JD sitting between Devers and Casas could be very nice - be helpful to all three.
JD sitting between Devers and Casas could be very nice - be helpful to all three.
I want 150 games from Devers, Casas, and Yoshida. If Yoshida plays maybe half his games in LF, and the other half at DH. . .that's not exactly a huge opportunity for someone like Urshela.
Who is the DH for those 75 games when Yoshida is in LF? If Devers is the DH for a significant number of those, presumably someone else needs to play 3b.
Of course, if all the starters play 150 games, there will be limited playing time for backups. Worth noting that Devers was the only Red Sox to play 150 games last year, and 2019 was the last year in which three Red Sox had three players play 150+ games.
Ad hoc, I'd expect. Cora used 14 players at DH in 23, 13 in 22, and 12 in 21. And all those years had dedicated DHs. For 2024, I expect it will likely be Valdez and/or Dalbec getting the lion's share - basically whomever the bench players are.
Breslow has said he does not want a dedicated DH. So I doubt he's going to sign one.
This isn't the first time you've brought this up. Do you think there's a specific problem here?
Breslow did say that, but then, more recently, Cora said Yoshida would be the regular DH, no?
Yes, I think the lack of offensive depth is a potential major problem. If Abreu, Duran, and O’Neill stay healthy and productive, things could be fine. If not, I’d suspect a lot of at bats from guys like Dalton Guthrie which probably wouldn’t be great.
It takes a lot of players to get through a major league season, I’d feel a lot better about the Sox chances if they added a few more depth pieces on both offense and defense.
Right now the bench looks like McGuire (C), Refsnyder (OF/1B), Reyes (IF), and two more - Valdez (2B) and Dalbec( SS)?, or Valdez (2B) and Rafaela (CF, SS)?
One spot; I’d imagine it’s Dalbec, not sure how Valdez fits but again, that’s assuming perfect health- not sure how often that happens. I think if you add, at a minimum, something like Pham and Ryu you’d be in better shape. Worst case is absolute perfect health and Abreu or Duran starts the season in AAA; and you probably have to drop one of Mata or Slaten, I guess. But that’s a pretty good worst case.
Ultimately, it probably doesn’t matter that much. But this team appears to have a fairly low ceiling to me and I think the more depth to start the season, the better.
I think the primary purpose of this season should be letting the kids play every day, not signing budget mediocre mid-30s guys to everyday roles in hopes of making it above 80 wins. Fill the backup roles with those types (like Solano and Refsnyder), sure, but I want as many starting spots as possible filled by guys with long term potential.
One of my concerns about the depth is beyond the people Rovin just mentioned, I'm not seeing any shuttle worthy hitters in Worcester. It isn't just a question of Dalbec being the 26th guy, there isn't another Dalbec in Worcester with a couple hundred MLB games behind them to fill in for 20 days.
Who suggested signing “budget mediocre mid-30’s guys to everyday roles”? It’s great to lock in a starting OF of Abreu, Duran, and O’Neill- but there’s major concerns with those three, isn’t there? If we are gonna stand pat with this roster than let’s agree that there will be no complaints when a few guys go down and Dalton Guthrie and Romy Gonzalez are getting lots of playing time.
Duran got almost 400 PA’s last year. Reyes, Urias, Chang, and Valdez combined for 500. Tapia got 100.
Giys get hurt. It’s easier to get depth now than to try to find it in May.
Yes, there's definitely concern and uncertainty about health and production. But signing a Duvall-tier guy now means Abreu has to start back in Worcester, and Rafaela is additionally bumped down the ladder behind him. So you're hindering development and it's not even clear you're upgrading on-field production. If it was Teoscar-tier it would make more sense maybe, but projections have Abreu outperforming Duvall this year to begin with. I'm all for making more minor league depth signings during ST as insurance policies, I just don't think it's worth it to block our young guys with the quality of player that's still out there.
I'm still of the mind that in the case of Dalbec, it makes sense to get someone that is better and makes Bobby the Worcester backup. Putting aside starts, having someone who could be a late innings defensive replacement for either Casas or Raffy makes a lot of sense, and is something that a contending Red Sox team should probably consider.
Good catch. It makes a bat-first DH type even less likely, since Rafaela may get the spot on his CF defense alone.
I'm sure they've considered it. The problem is finding someone who fits the criteria (good defender, preferably RHH) AND isn't aspiring to be a starter (or to have a path) somewhere isn't all that simple. Looking at the free agent list, Garrett Cooper might be the best choice for 1B and the longer he remains a free agent, the more likely they could sign him for a back-up role/price. He doesn't play 3B though.
As far as a defensive replacement for Devers in the late innings, could Pablo Reyes not fill that role? He appears to be a lock for the roster at this point as the utility infielder. From a defensive standpoint he's not going to replace Story and might wind up as a wash for Grissom, but he could be an upgrade over Devers if they wanted to go that way in the late innings.
Thing is, defensively replacing Devers or Casas in the late innings only makes sense in games where they have a substantial enough lead that they aren't concerned about losing their bat(s) should the lead be lost. Obviously, we want that to be a frequent thing but with the predictions most have for the season, will it be that frequent? Are we only talking 5-10 games over the course of the season? Seems like more of a luxury concern than a priority.
People get hurt. I can’t say it enough. Duran just just surgery. O’Neil is always hurt. Abreu struggles with lefties.
Everyone here who doesn’t think Dalbec needs to be replaced is working under the assumption everyone is in perfect health 162.
It isn’t gonna happen.
Again, an Abreu would start back in Worcester…if there were no injuries. I don’t think it’s realistic to assume that the team will be in perfect health. Injuries happen. Accruing depth now is easier than later. But at this point, think we can agree to disagree here.
There's space for RHH OF X and Abreu on the MLB team, it would just mean Refsnyder is now your backup 1B. Not ideal and definitely a questionable use of roster space, but still arguably an upgrade over Dalbec.
Very true, you make a good point. Adding a RHH depth piece would be useful. I simply think adding a CORE everyday RHH power bat would be even more useful! In the best of all worlds the team would have both!
I think that would really require trading Yoshida in particular. The Sox want to DH one of their bad gloves and currently he’s the most likely - since they have multiple young OFers.
Of course there is some risk. JD has been inconsistent the last few years and is only getting older. Meanwhile, Yoshida was remarkably good in the first half last year; if he could regain that form he might outperform JD. Trading Yoshida might also require that the Sox pick up some of his contract -even for a low return. Long term it’s likely that keeping Yoshida is the move with more upside and it seems more and more that this team is more interested in future upside than maximizing wins next season.
The limited data we have suggests that Reyes performs best on the left side of the infield- with a higher OAA at both SS and 3B than 2b. He’d probably be a huge upgrade to Devers defensively if the Sox wanted to use him that way at the end of games. Rafaela, once he’s on the roster, would be another option at 3rd.
With Bellinger only getting a 3/year $80 million dollar deal (with opt-outs each year) where does that put Chapman? Might he be looking at something similar but lower (3/$60)??
If so, unless the team really isn’t willing to take on any other significant contracts how can the Sox not be interested? That’s not only a solid upgrade to their hitting, it’s a massive upgrade to the team’s fielding (Devers to DH).
Yes, you’d have to give up a pick but it might give the team the best right left side of the infield in the majors only one year after it had the worst right left side of the infield in the majors.
I know that the goal had been to upgrade the pitching but that type of IF defense would also impact the team’s pitching staff.
If so, unless the team really isn’t willing to take on any other significant contracts how can the Sox not be interested? That’s not only a solid upgrade to their hitting, it’s a massive upgrade to the team’s fielding (Devers to DH).
Yes, you’d have to give up a pick but it might give the team the best
I know that the goal had been to upgrade the pitching but that type of IF defense would also impact the team’s pitching staff.
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What's tough about that is it puts Yoshida back in the field, where he was quite miserable. so the improvement on defense you were getting by having Duran or whoever in left over Yoshida gets neutralized even as you get an improvement at 3B. It would also mean Abreu down to AAA to start the year, most likely, or else they'd trade someone. Not the end of the world, even a good thing for depth, and it would certainly improve the offense even if it neutralizes the positive effects of having Yoshida at DH.
I don't hate the idea of Chapman, I've floated it myself, but those are hard realities. And if it's between a pitcher and Chapman, I'd probably want the pitcher right now.
Well, that’s if you can get a 3.5 fWAR pitcher (in other words, players like Luis Castillo, or Corbin Burns) for a similar price - sure. But you can't, right?
Whoops...
Are you concerned that Raffy would be deprived the chance of competing for the modern era's all-time error record? After all, his career totals (129 in 6.5 years) have been truly historic. Devers is the Majors leader (among all players) in errors since he first debuted in 2017. A remarkable stat considering that he is the only fielder in the top 6 that isn't a SS (who get far more fielding chances). This of course is made possible by his absurd .942 Fielding Percentage during that time, something that is not only the worst in baseball (min 3500 innings), but also nearly 2 percentage points worse than the number two fielder during that period (Maikel Franco at .959). This also makes him one of only two players to have as many innings in the field and this low a fielding percentage since the AL first instituted the DH 50 years ago. Unfortunately, the advanced stats aren't much better. His -53 DRS, for example, is the worst by any 3rd baseman since he debuted, and again it's not close (Maikel Franco is number 2 at -27). In fact that's a bad enough number that DRS ranks him as the 2nd worst fielder in the entire majors (to Nick Castellanos) in that time.
BTW, do you know who is the second best fielder (per DRS) since Devers debuted? You guessed it, Matt Chapman (+92 DRS).
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Yet despite all that Devers remains the more valuable player over the past 5 years as well as 3 years younger.
He still has time to improve, and a new situation that seems like a good one to facilitate that (I believe all his negative OAA last year came before Story came back, and he was neutral over the last two months). Chapman already appears to be declining; his season line last year was a mirage with one hot streak and 4 months spent at 75 wrc+ or lower, mostly at normal BABIPs.
He still has time to improve, and a new situation that seems like a good one to facilitate that (I believe all his negative OAA last year came before Story came back, and he was neutral over the last two months). Chapman already appears to be declining; his season line last year was a mirage with one hot streak and 4 months spent at 75 wrc+ or lower, mostly at normal BABIPs.
Montgomery has averaged 3.4 over the last three years, isn't that close enough?
Longoria is a pretty good option. I just don’t think he takes the <200 PA the Red Sox can give if that’s all that’s left for him in the league. I guess it depends on how badly he wants to break those benchmarks.
In the field? Because I think we can all agree that Devers is not more valuable than Chapman as a fielder and no one is suggesting that Devers wouldn't remain in the lineup as the DH.
He still has time to improve? Well, I guess he has as much time as the team is willing to give him. That said, in the history of the majors only one other team that had the option of the DH continued to give fielding opportunities to this bad a fielder for this long. After all, if you have the DH, fielders like Devers usually end up there - long before they reach 7000 innings in the field.
I'm also not seeing any evidence to support your suggestion that Devers fielding improved once Story returned. While I didn't find any site with fielding splits that were that specific, I was able to find an August 15th MassLive article that reported that at that time Devers had 15 errors, a -7 OAA, and -5 DRS. Prior to that date, Story had only started 3 times at SS. After that point, roughly 1/4 of the season (42 games), he started 33 times. Presumably, in the vast majority of these games, Devers played beside Story.
Despite that, his numbers did not improve. In that stretch he had a -2 OAA (he was -9 OAA for the year), 4 errors ( he had 19 for the year), and a -4 DRS (he was -9 DRS for the year). In other words, he had a similar amount of errors per game and a far more negative DRS (nearly as many for the last quarter of the season than he had had for the 3/4 of a season leading up to that point). His -2 OAA is also about what you might expect for a guy who was at -7 OAA after three quarters of a season.
I'm pretty sure Chapman has always been a streaky hitter - his monthly numbers from his last three seasons suggests as much. He was also dealing with a finger injury from early August, which apparently affected him the rest of the season (he was placed on the IL for this in September after trying to play through it for weeks). It's also important to recognize that the reason I brought this up is that he's currently projecting to make a lot less than what was assumed when he hit free agency. He doesn't have to play like a superstar to be worth 3/$60 million.
If we can get Montgomery for as cheap as Chapman (maybe as low as 3/$60 million) I'd be ecstatic.
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Sox probably need another RH option for the OF, or platoon 1B. The couple of games I've seen of O'Neill, he approached batting and fielding with a twich. That's more of a football term for linemen, maybe I'd say herky-jerky. Maybe that' coupled with the weight room is why he can't stay healthy. The more this goes on with the FA's, I think Ref becomes the RH bat.
Can you explain this more? What is it he's doing that you think is making him more susceptible to injury? And what types of injuries is he susceptible to? Because looking at his past injuries, I don't really see a pattern or even much repetition.