We have multiple threads for Teoscar Hernandez. The other FA who's been consistently linked with the Red Sox is Lucas Giolito, so let's give him a thread, too. There's discussion of him already, quoted below!
Lucas with the lid off
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Except that some reporter tweeted yesterday that he might get $20 million a season. That's two Klubers!
I understand how Ohtani or Judge or even Yamamoto can get the contracts they command, and how those deals can still make sense for the team offering them. I don't understand how players who have been at best mediocre in recent years, and often significantly worse, can get the dollars they do in today's market.
The money doesn't really matter to me, they have tons of room to spend. I'm against them signing the guy he's been the last two years, but I'm just a guy scrolling around on Fangraphs and statcast, so if Breslow and Bailey have a plan to get him back to who he was prior to 2022, that's worth way more than $20m and he's still youngish.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/lucas-giolito-608337?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb&season=2021
Yep. Fastball, Curve, Slider all have spin fall hugely after the June 16 start in 2021.
Since then 3 teams have tried to fix him.
Pass.
Yep. Fastball, Curve, Slider all have spin fall hugely after the June 16 start in 2021.
Since then 3 teams have tried to fix him.
Pass.
But what about our limited financial resources?
And completely not a shot at you at all, just wondering for future reference... is the "Brez and Bailey's wizardry with the pitching" the new "Chaim will be able to replicate the Tampa magic here?"
Asking for myself.
He’s always been kind of mediocre- has always given up way too many homers, and issued too many walks. He’s young and durable, so maybe worth a flier on the idea that you can get more out of him than the last few teams have; worked with Wacha.
Not sure I’d want to go more than 2 years, though.
Not sure I’d want to go more than 2 years, though.
Even with Chicago last year he had a solid 4.43 FIP (3.79 ERA), he just fell apart afterward. The homers were an issue (as has always been the case) but as mentioned, he's been durable with good K/BB. If Breslow/Bailey think they see something there, I'd be happy to give him 3 years or 2 years with an opt out.
They aren't going to just sign the guy and have the last year-plus continue, right? This stuff is Breslow's bread and butter, so either they know something more than his spin rate has dropped, or the rumors are false.
If you look at his game log from this past season, he had 17 game scores of 50+ in his 33 starts, including 11 over 60 (very solid starts). He also averaged 5.5 innings per start. Doesn't that sound more like inconsistency than an across-the board diminishment of his stuff?
If you look at his game log from this past season, he had 17 game scores of 50+ in his 33 starts, including 11 over 60 (very solid starts). He also averaged 5.5 innings per start. Doesn't that sound more like inconsistency than an across-the board diminishment of his stuff?
For some reason that link just gives me his general statcast page and I'm not sure how to find spin rates on their game logs. What happened with his 2021 season that his overall spin rates for the year remained consistent with where he'd been in previous years, given that June drop-off?
I don't expect B&B to magically fix any pitchers, but I expect them to have a realistic idea of both who they can target for improvement and their own abilities to fix those targets, so I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt until they prove themselves incapable of doing so.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF|&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2023|2022|2021|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&pitchers_lookup[]=608337&metric_1=&group_by=name-date&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_stats_velocity=on&chk_stats_spin_rate=on&chk_stats_api_break_z_with_gravity=on&chk_stats_api_break_z_induced=on#results
You have to use the search function with Baseball Savant. Try the link above which groups by game date. I have it filtered for just four seam fastballs but you can play around with it.
The other thing about Giolito - and something I’m sure appeals to Breslow/Bailey/Willard - is that he’s known as a very analytical pitcher. This year he changed the shape of his slider to feature more downward movement. It seemed like it was working in the earlier part of the year but maybe the league caught up with it a bit (or it could be the off field problems understandably impacting his performance). So I think he has the mind and the willingness to make changes to maximize his performance, the question would be how much more our pitching infrastructure could squeeze out of him.
Oh sure, the old sox pitching jedi’s can fix him mantra.
Hard Pass.
Too much of a reclamation exercise yet again; that is only fruitful in the offseason hopes and dreams.
Hard Pass.
Too much of a reclamation exercise yet again; that is only fruitful in the offseason hopes and dreams.
You can also go to the general statcast page and look at "pitch tracking" below the "pitch % by season" graph. To get to the game data, use the drop-down boxes under the graph. In the third one, change from "season" to "game" and in the last one, change from "all seasons" to "2021". The graph and "pitch tracking" table should update.
You can then click on the header "pitch type" in the pitch tracking table to sort by type. It should remain sorted by date. You can then look at the spin rates and see the before and after pretty clearly for each pitch.
It sounds cumbersome, but it's pretty useful to look at "before and after" events for any pitcher you might care to consider. I find it's pretty good when considering injuries and fatigue and those sorts of things.
This is about as stark a spin drop-off as you're going to see. You can see the same thing for Garret Richards if you go to his page and sort the same way. Night and day.
I don't understand why they're willing to commit $20 million/year to Giolito but not $25ish/year for Montgomery? The difference that Montgomery would immediately make to our rotation is worth way more than $5 million. At worst, you're getting a solid, durable #2 pitcher without the question marks.
I know about his drop off that June, I was wondering how he kept his season-wide spin rate in line with previous years despite that, and why we didn't see full-season decline until 2022.
Answering my own question with thanks to your statcast tips: looks like he started 2021 with career best spin rates and then fell to something like current numbers, so the average on the year looks like prior seasons.
I'm in favor of Montgomery too, but nobody here has any idea what they're willing to commit to anyone.
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I'm not sure what the season-wide numbers you're looking at? If you look at his June 2021 the RPM numbers fall of significantly to a new band and remain there for the rest of his career. It's the same if you resort sort by month, or by year - fastball, slider, and rarely thrown curve. The point being that, stuff-wise, his 2019 all-star season was consistent with the beginning of 2021. . .until the sticky ban. Since which he has not thrown as well.
He may adapt - there may be other ways he can be effective, even with diminished spin. But he's only shown effectiveness in brief flashes since the middle of 2021. If there's something discrete tied to those flashes, and it's replicable, he's a different kettle of fish. But if not, his post-sticky-ban-self likely is what it is.
Because Giolito is likely looking for a 2yr deal, 3 tops to re-establish his value and hopefully score another contract when he is still in his early 30's. Montgomery is looking to get paid like an ace on a 6-7 year deal, which scares the crap out of me if I'm Breslow. In addition, being a Boras client, he may not sign until February. No Thanks, we need 2 SP and at 2yr/38 million with an option year based on some performance incentives isn't nearly as scary. It also leaves the flexibility to fill the other holes (another SP, 2B RHH power) sooner rather than later.
I join you in your lack of comprehension. And yet, one doesn't hear a peep about the Sox and Montgomery anymore.
Edit: I see the point was made about the length of contract Montgomery may be looking for. That does make sense to me.
I’m pretty sure if they were willing to commit 20 mil a year to Giolito, he’d be here already.
Most of the reports I've seen have him at 6-7 years, $150 million. $25 million/year isn't ace-level, especially after the Ohtani/Yamamoto madness. 170 IP of 120 ERA+ is more than worth that contract.
Outside of Bello, we have absolutely no one in the high minors who we can pencil into the front of a rotation. Either we wait to see if any of the Bloom draftees matriculate, we gamble on whether Bailey can fix Gioloto, or we pay Montgomery for some solid, durable production that will immediately make the team better in 2024 and 2025. Option 3 certainly takes some of the pressure off the new guys.
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Flexibility!
This is one thing that has driven me crazy in recent years. We're not willing to pay star players long term money because we don't want to get stuck with highly paid players producing mediocre results because of age or injury for several years. Instead, we end up paying a lot of money to mediocre players producing mediocre (or worse) results because of age or injury a year or two at a time. Kike, Kluber, Richards, Perez, JBJ, Paxton, Hill.
And when we have stretched on the contract length, its mostly been for players who have some identifiable risks that have resulted in disappointing results, at least so far - Story with his injuries, Yoshida with his transition to the US, Barnes with his historic mediocrity.
What good is flexibility if you're going to use it on mediocre players who are still not exactly cheap?
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Chawson beat me to it. Also there's no indication that Monty is settling for $25.
Just a guess here, but i think Giolito's camp is hoping for a 2yr deal at a higher AAV so he can become a FA again when he is 31. Teams like the Red Sox are likely more comfortable with something like 3/yr 50m.
Wow - that's horrible!!!!
But you'll be super-relieved to hear that I thought to ask some random uber-driver if there was a way I could get an overview on all the players the Sox signed. They suggested a place called MLB.com. I don't know if you've heard of it, but it's pretty cool!!!
I learned that since 2020 we signed or extended such players as: Xander Boegarts, Rafael Devers, Matt Barnes, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Wacha, James Paxton, Matt Strahm, Garret Whitlock, Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Chris Martin, Rob Refsnyder, and Adam Duval.
Don't you feel better now?
And now you know where you can go to find this information so it won't distress you so much!
Gosh, had no idea there was this thing called the Internet where you can find this information. Thanks for your help.
Boegarts singed his extension with the Red Sox on March 31, 2019. If you're going to be so obnoxious in your posts, you should at least get your facts straight.
This is awfully black and white and leaves out Devers, like the Sox should have more than one $300m commitment before we take them seriously? I agree with what I think your actual point is -- that we shouldn't just sit out the star player market because the right one can be a real driving force for a team. But the wrong one can ruin a roster too, and in the end you need 25 guys, so taking some low-cost high-upside swings is exactly what they should be doing most of the time.
It's a bit disingenuous to say three teams have tried to fix him. He was only in Anaheim and Cleveland for four weeks each. That's barely enough time to evaluate his issues, let alone fix him. I could very much see a team look at him and believe they might be able to make some progress in "fixing" him if they had him for two months of the off-season plus spring training plus the regular season.
I'm not necessarily in favor of the Red Sox being the team that attempts it, especially with an 8-figure price tag, but it's certainly defensible that someone thinks he is fixable.
Absolutely they should be doing that - David Ortiz was acquired that way. But to rely on this as a main source of talent acquisition is going to be very volatile, and a wealthy team should not be so dependent on rolling lucky sevens so often. And I would characterize a lot of the "low-cost high-upside" signings of recent years as not really that low cost (we gave both Hernandez and Kluber $10 million last season) and not really that high upside - how many of these players have really produced big years for us? Turner and Martin last year, Kike in 2021. Everybody else has been, at best, about what you'd expect from their prior performances, except that they've tended to miss a lot of time with injuries.
Giolito's possible outcomes seem very volatile to me. High chance that he's cooked, but maybe some chance of a rebound and small chance that he's excellent again. I'd love to have him on the roster at the right price, but the $20 million figure reported yesterday is crazy.
I agree that $20M per for Giolito seems high, but is it? Seems like any pitcher with a pulse is getting at least $11-$12M per (Severino, Lynn, Mahle, Gibson, Flaherty, Maeda, Nick Martinez) with guys like Wacha and Lugo in the $15-$16M per. I think Giolito should probably be in the Wacha / Lugo range but theoretically offers more upside than either of those guys, and probably won’t settle for what they got for a while.
Seth Lugo pulled down a $15M AAV from Kansas City; Michael Wacha got $16M annually. Why would Giolito, who is younger and has a longer and better track record, get less than either of them did? Also, $20 million is a figure that should not deter this ownership group or FO. Aside from Story, Devers and (to a lesser degree) Yoshida, there's no big long-term money on the books that would make that amount a deal-breaker. The back of this rotation is terrible, there's no starter depth, and aside from Bello and maybe Crawford, no one on the roster has the kind of ceiling that a healthy Giolito does. He'd be a sensible add at almost any price point.
ETA: Petagine beat me to the Lugo/Wacha point as I was typing but yeah, why would Giolito settle for less than what they got?
ETA: Petagine beat me to the Lugo/Wacha point as I was typing but yeah, why would Giolito settle for less than what they got?
He can have whatever number he wants in his mind. If he actually wants to sign somewhere, he needs to price himself to where the market is. Given the Lugo/Wacha comps, maybe asking for $20M is a reasonable starting point but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has to accept a lesser amount given how bad he was last year. But getting 2/40 from someone certainly wouldn’t shock me either.
Where is this narrative of Giolito being awful last season coming from? He had a 118 ERA+ in Chicago over 120 innings and then 60 bad innings for the Angels and Guardians where his home run rate was insanely high, and nearly half of his earned runs with those two teams came in two starts. Those innings happened and you can't magic them away, but he wasn't out there getting shelled every turn.
Regardless, unless this FO is going to go after Snell or Montgomery, there really is not much else out there, and this rotation badly needs help. What else is that $20 million going to be spent on at this point?
I can't remember which site it was, but the projection i recall seeing for him was 2yr/39m, so no, it wouldn't be shocking.
No problem buddy. I wouldn't want you to look like an idiot or a disingenuous hack or anything.
So true.
Now - what about the majority of the FA signings and extensions?
Have you calmed down now that you've considered them all?
Because that would be a topic worth discussing, instead of leading with, say, cherry-picked examples to support a specious argument.
You don't hear a peep about Montgomery anymore cause Boras likes to drag things out and there's no news. Every report on his market is still mentioning the Sox as one of his suitors.
I think you answered your own question. Because he was awful down the stretch. He wasn’t nearly as bad in Chicago, as you’ve noted, so that along with the previous production is why a team will invest in him.
I’m not fundamentally against a Giolito signing but it would have to be a short deal to get me interested. A $20M AAV on a short deal wouldn’t kill this team.
WAR, 2022-2023
Wacha: 5.7
Lugo: 2.4
Giolito: 2.1
And that's with Lugo being in the bullpen in 2022.
Yes, Giloito has a track record of a higher level of success. But it's been two years. That track record is why he's in their neighborhood, but he's not at a higher level.
It also probably doesn’t help them that much. If he’s good, what then? It costs a lot more to re-up. All these 1 year deals add up- don’t the Sox have been in a better spot if they had given, say, Wacha a 3 year deal rather than a one? Or closed the deal on multi-year deals with one or Eovaldi, Eflin, or Lugo- as they tried to? Seems like the primary benefit of a one year deal is that you are out of it quickly- which is great only if the guy stinks. So, isn’t it preferable to find guys you think will be good and lock them up for a bit, as opposed to just the endless stream of one year deals?
It's only "high," as far as I'm concerned (not my $), relative to the team budget, so if it's just 2-3 years, we already know they can absorb that one.
He’s 29, though- whereas Wacha is 32 and Lugo is 34. I think that matters, a bit at least.
Well, the WS tried different pitch mixes with him for about two seasons after the sticky ban. LAA tried a very different pitch mix, and then put him on waivers. Maybe LAA and CLE had no interest in him other than as a body, but the pitch mix change suggests there was something there they thought they could take advantage of.
I'm generally not of the "we can rebuild him" school - it happens, but rarely. Often you see pitching coaches looking to add an extra pitch or tweak one to fix a problem in an overall pitching portfolio.
The only interesting thing I see in his numbers is that a lot of the HRs he gave up would not be out of the park in Fenway.
Yeah, to be clear I don’t really love this strategy and it’s why I was ready to back up the Brinks truck to Yamamoto. We need some sustainable long term pitching outside of Bello. The constant turnover makes compiling a quality rotation difficult year to year. But I can at least see some of the upside with Giolito. If he’s a secondary piece to someone like Montgomery, Snell, or Imanaga, I’d feel a bit better. But the cost of the first 2 guys may be prohibitive, especially with Snell’s QO.
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