At a certain level (re Hunter Brown) I admit there is some wishcasting in there, mostly because the idea of a season of Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Pivetta and one of Houck, Whitlock Winckowski followed up by an ostensible season of Bello, Crawford, and then continuing to cobble together from Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski and Fitts is so incredibly awful to think about that I'm trying to find any way that the rotation might not be horrible from now until however long it takes Breslow to fix the minor league pitching (non)pipeline...They traded 2 prospects for Verlander - one in AA and one in A+. It’s unlikely either one of those guys will make an impact within the next couple of years. People are talking about trading for Hunter Brown and Chas McCormick. Brown was a consensus top 50 prospect who had a good rookie season and McCormick put up nearly 4 WAR last year. Not only would the cost be astronomical but both figure to contribute significantly to their team this year. I don’t see how it’s comparable at all.
However, as to why I think it COULD make some sense, like you said, Houston has a wide open two year window, but it's probably more like a GFIN year for them since both Verlander and Altuve are up at the end of this year, and neither is getting any younger.
The top half of their rotation is set (Vadlez, Javier, Verlander) AND they have a lot of SP4/5 type depth (JP France, Brandon Bielak, Jose Urquidy) AND they have their own version of James Paxton (Lance McCullers, who gets hurt every year, is generally pretty good for the 20ish games he pitches and is supposed to be back around the ASG) AND that would leave them their top prospect in Arrighetti that isn't too far off from MLB. Oh, and as an added bonus, they also have Luis Garcia who should be back from TJS in 2025.
Then, Boston is paying for (and rebuilding) their bullpen by sending them Jansen and Martin. Oh, and you're giving them a SP for this year in Pivetta to replace Brown while they see which of their 5 Tanner Houck's sticks in the rotation, or if that's Arrighetti. Along with Luis Garcia coming back in 2025. Beyond that, you're taking approximately $20m off their books (Abreu) that they can use to sign one of Hoskins, Santana, Belt or Cron.
Houston is also right up close to the tax threshold, and they generally haven't been an organization to just blow through that. So it's asking Houston to make a call for this year on which they think is better suited toward winning a world series.
Valdez, Javier, Verlander, Brown, France (guessing) with Urquidy, Bielak, McCullers (July) and Arrighetti.
Bullpen of Pressley, Abreu and whatever else they have.
Jose Abreu and his .680 OPS as their 1b.
No money left to spend (assuming $LTT).
Valdez, Javier, Verlander, Pivetta, France (still with Urquidy, Bielak, McCullers - in July - and Arrighetti.
Absolutely filthy bullpen of Pressley, Jansen, Abreu, Martin.
Approximately $20m to spend filling 1b and other assorted holes, and I'll call that Rhys Hoskins or Brandon Belt for around $15m and an additional $5m to use.
FWIW, BTV hasn't updated agreed to arb deals yet (Pivetta) but a deal of:
Houston gets Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and $31m to pay their salaries ($7.5m, $16m, $7.5m)
Boston gets Abreu (Houston pays no money) and Hunter Brown
Comes out as 37.8 total value from Boston; 35.6 total value from Houston. I suppose we have no idea if Houston would rather have Hoskins or Belt than Abreu, but I could see why they might.
I think the latter iteration is a lot more likely to win a World Series, but that's just me.
*I still don't think Houston would do it, but I can see why asking might make some sense. Plus, there was no part of me that would have thought (pre deal) that Atlanta would trade Vaughn Grissom for Sale.
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