Offseason rumors

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chawson

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This, to me, sounds absurd.
Hey, that’s entertainment!

Quite the scoop here. Certainly jells with what we’re hearing all around. Joel Wolfe kept us and our two-year, $50 million dollar offer for Yamamoto firmly in the mix for weeks, according to national reports.
 

SouthernBoSox

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This, to me, sounds absurd.
Carrabis said on his podcast that the Red Sox are currently "Unwilling to offer more than 2 years" on any free agent. Its unclear if this is some sort of mandate or strategy or if it's true or not.

We will see. The Imanaga sweepstakes will be very telling in my opinion.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Carrabis said on his podcast that the Red Sox are currently "Unwilling to offer more than 2 years" on any free agent. Its unclear if this is some sort of mandate or strategy or if it's true or not.

We will see. The Imanaga sweepstakes will be very telling in my opinion.
FWIW, I deleted my own posts on this. Sorry if it took people too far down a rabbit hole that maybe we shouldn't be following. If a dope doesn't think it is more than apparent BS, I apologize for entering it, and ask that it be stricken from the record.

Really hoping that one of Imanaga or Stroman appear on the Red Sox for the next 3+ years. Along with a trade for another SP. Since Speier has indicated the Red Sox aren't in the center of it for Imanaga, I have to strongly assume it won't be him. Because I do think Speier is very credible.
 

HfxBob

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Carrabis said on his podcast that the Red Sox are currently "Unwilling to offer more than 2 years" on any free agent. Its unclear if this is some sort of mandate or strategy or if it's true or not.

We will see. The Imanaga sweepstakes will be very telling in my opinion.
And Speier has reported that the Red Sox are only "lurking" on Imanaga.
 

CR67dream

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If a dope doesn't think it is more than apparent BS, I apologize for entering it, and ask that it be stricken from the record.
Hold on, I didn't say that, I said there could be nuggets of truth, or bullshit. It's fine to post it, but it's also OK to comment on what was posted. I was just sort of reminding folks to consider the source before engaging in blind belief.

And none of what I posted there was as a Dope. I can't stress that enough. If the post was objectionable/against the rules, it would have been removed. There was clearly nothing against the rules there, and no reason for my mod hat to be on. My thoughts are as open to scrutiny as anyone's when it comes to posting them on the board.
 
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Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Hold on, I didn't say that, I said there could be nuggets of truth, or bullshit. It's fine to post it, but it's also OK to comment on what was posted. I was just sort of reminding folk to consider the source before engaging in blind belief.

And none of what I posted there was as a Dope. I can't stress that enough. If the post was objectionable/against the rules, it would have been removed. There was clearly nothing against the rules there, and no reason for my mod hat to be on. My thoughts are as open to scrutiny as anyone's when it comes to posting them on the board.
Fair enough. As someone that is a long time lurker but just started posting a little over a year ago, I wasn't certain on something being a mod post or not and wanted to err on the side of caution. Especially since a lot of my posts are on strong disagreement with the way things have been transpiring. Which is very odd for me because I do adore FSG and what they have done for the organization, city and fans. To see the complete 180 from what they did and had massive success with for 20 years to what we've seen recently just strikes me as discussion worthy (and odd).


For purposes of discussion. I had posted something "corroborating" the information @SouthernBoSox mentioned from Carrabis. That, Jimmy Stewart (a producer on Felger and Mazz that is usually somewhat reliable) has heard Breslow isn't allowed to sign free agents for longer than 2 years. It was on Friday afternoon around 5pm as I sat on 128 needing 45 minutes to go 4 miles, so no, I don't have a link. (And even if I did, who knows how reliable Jimmy Stewart even is).

It could be a mandate. It could be his call. It could be what @Salem's Lot says and he just needs to get it agreed to first. It could be complete and utter BS. I have no idea. People are more than free to disregard it completely.

I will say that when I hear all kinds of nuggets dropped about the Red Sox recently seem to imply that we shouldn't expect Imanaga, Stroman or anyone of consequence on a long term deal. IF that ends up being the case, AND IF they can't swing the kind of prospects for pitching deals that Breslow apparently is trying to (because I take him at face value there), THEN I hope Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, Refsnyder, and anyone else on a one year deal are dealt for the best prospects possible before the season starts - then replaced with whoever else will take one year deals to flip at the deadline in an attempt to buy more prospects twice and not just once.
 

CR67dream

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Fair enough. As someone that is a long time lurker but just started posting a little over a year ago, I wasn't certain on something being a mod post or not and wanted to err on the side of caution.
That's completely understandable, it can be a fine line and it's not always clear. Truthfully, I don't think we as a group have stressed enough that while we moderate the site, we're also long time members who love to participate here. Seems we need to try to be clearer on what's a mod action and what's not.

A lot of the reason I've cut way back on posting is because I've gotten a lot of reactions like that because people think they can't take me to task because of a tag. Please do so!

I've learned a hell of a lot more in life being wrong than being right, and when I'm wrong, I want to know it. If I don't think I am, I want to defend it. What I don't want is anyone thinking that my tag identifying me as someone who moderates/administrates the place means anything in the course of normal conversations/debates. I'm not, and no one is, immune from a case of the dumbs.
 

Harry Hooper

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Carrabis said on his podcast that the Red Sox are currently "Unwilling to offer more than 2 years" on any free agent. Its unclear if this is some sort of mandate or strategy or if it's true or not.

We will see. The Imanaga sweepstakes will be very telling in my opinion.
Seeing that the team saw fit to put Carrabis up on a duck boat for the 2018 victory parade, I don't think this statement can be easily dismissed. I am curious about the context of what he said, though.
 

jbupstate

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And Speier has reported that the Red Sox are only "lurking" on Imanaga.
I will start by saying I like Speier and his work.

That said, how can I feel comfortable with that comment knowing that the Sox management has been leak free?

And couldn’t lurking mean ready to jump at or pounce? Would this comment help or hurt the Sox in negotiations?

It doesn’t make any sense to me that the Sox have watched Imanaga over time and are only interest to a point. The Sox are fully aware the market for pitching is cutthroat and he only costs money. And since there is an only 2 year mandate how were they mentioned in the first place?

I would love some of the “insiders” to say the Sox are “Out” on players. And take the hit if they are wrong… or making it up
 

teddykgb

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Has anyone done some long form research into why Yoshida is considered such a bad defender? It feels like everyone we ever put in LF has awful defensive stats and I know the stats attempt to correct for park but it’s weird to me how I keep reading that he’s awful out there and seldom thought that while watching him play.

My memory says that Verdugo put up some pretty lousy defensive numbers in LF as well but was always fine when played in CF or RF.
 

HfxBob

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I will start by saying I like Speier and his work.

That said, how can I feel comfortable with that comment knowing that the Sox management has been leak free?
It's a fair question, but are they actually leak free, and if so why did we find out immediately what they offered Teoscar?
 

CR67dream

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It's a fair question, but are they actually leak free, and if so why did we find out immediately what they offered Teoscar?
I made a differentiation earlier in the thread between the leaking of the actual deals they've made, and other stuff they might want out there. The former has been airtight up to now, and every organization does the latter.
 

mikcou

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Has anyone done some long form research into why Yoshida is considered such a bad defender? It feels like everyone we ever put in LF has awful defensive stats and I know the stats attempt to correct for park but it’s weird to me how I keep reading that he’s awful out there and seldom thought that while watching him play.

My memory says that Verdugo put up some pretty lousy defensive numbers in LF as well but was always fine when played in CF or RF.
Verdugo was basically average over his Red Sox career in LF, which is what he roughly was in LA. Then he actually got himself in shape and moved better in 2023. Red Sox have bad defensive LFers because realistically they can hide them in the small LF. This is much more the players arent good defenders than the dimensions (although they do have some impact and had a larger impact when advanced defensive stats first came out).

Yoshida is a bad defender because hes not the fastest guy to begin with, doesn't get a good read/first step, and doesnt take good routes. You put those together and you have a well below average defender. He can certainly work on the second and third items and improve a bit, but hes likely never going to be a solid defender and will likely always be better off not playing the field outside of Fenway.
 

jbupstate

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It's a fair question, but are they actually leak free, and if so why did we find out immediately what they offered Teoscar?
After the fact. All we heard was 4/$80m. Didn’t hear anything about what they offered YY. Shit… I’m the Sox and I feed 10/$325 to a reporter as willing to to go but no reason since LAD was foregone conclusion.

I’m speaking more towards the moves with O’Neil and Sale.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I will start by saying I like Speier and his work.

That said, how can I feel comfortable with that comment knowing that the Sox management has been leak free?

And couldn’t lurking mean ready to jump at or pounce? Would this comment help or hurt the Sox in negotiations?

It doesn’t make any sense to me that the Sox have watched Imanaga over time and are only interest to a point. The Sox are fully aware the market for pitching is cutthroat and he only costs money. And since there is an only 2 year mandate how were they mentioned in the first place?

I would love some of the “insiders” to say the Sox are “Out” on players. And take the hit if they are wrong… or making it up
There are lots of reasons why "leaks" occur, especially from inside an organization. Maybe the person speaking with Speier is annoyed that the Sox are essentially cutting themselves out of the free agent market before they get a real chance to jump into it. Maybe the person is fed up with the pressure that Warner put on the FO by saying that they're "going full throttle" and is essentially saying, "yeah, we'd love to go full throttle if only Ownership didn't put a governor on the engine." Perhaps one of the people who interviewed for Brelsow's position and is pissed that he/she didn't get the job and wants to grease the skids a little bit for his/her new boss.

It might not even be someone from the Sox FO. Baseball is a tight community of teenagers who love to gossip. It could be that someone from the outside is throwing real shade at the Sox.

There are a million other reasons why these comments could be true. I've been on record saying that the Red Sox beat writers are among the best in MLB and they don't simply make stuff up. That goes triple for a person like Alex Speier who is about the opposite of a hot-take shit thrower I've ever read. Does he have his biases? Of course he does, all writers do but slamming management without provocation isn't one of them.

Since the end of 2019, the Red Sox Front Office has changed their free agent philosophy: they're not going to overpay or overextend a FA and won't sign anyone unless it's a team-friendly deal. We're literally on offseason five of this and I don't think that they're ever going back to the poet on payday ways of blowing money on free agents. That's kind of where we are in 2024. Will it be cool if they made a big splash? But I'm not holding my breath anymore. And it doesn't seem like baseball as an industry or the people who write about baseball disagree.

EDIT: or to put it another way: Krusty the Klown is getting smashed at Wimbledon and we're stuck with Barney in clown makeup.

I have no idea what you mean with your last sentence. Baseball free agent negotiations are fluid. Where one day it looks like a player is headed to one club (Hernandez was "a day away" from signing with the Sox two weeks ago), he could ultimately head to another club when talks break down. Are you asking for writers to state that Player X is definitely going to Team Y as a measure of competance? If so, how come?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It's a fair question, but are they actually leak free, and if so why did we find out immediately what they offered Teoscar?
National reporter vs local?

It seems like the local guys rarely ever break a trade or free agent signing by the Sox. It's almost always someone out of market, usually a national guy. Which lends credence to the idea that the Sox don't leak and the breaks/leaks that do get reported are likely coming from other teams or agents while speaking to reporters outside of Boston. I don't mean this as a slight to the Boston guys though. I like a lot of them and some of them are quite good/fast in confirming reports once they're done, presumably because the Boston FO is more willing to confirm something that's already done versus rumors about offers and discussions.

I tend to take nearly all rumors with a grain of salt this time of year, but it's usually a larger grain when it's a Boston reporter/personality reporting a Red Sox rumor. None of them seem to have that sort of access/sourcing.
 

chawson

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Here’s what I think is happening.

Boras is putting the screws to the Sox. (Other agents have followed suit). He knows that we're in a protracted PR crisis after Mookie, and that Winter Weekend is approaching, and Breslow and the Sox FO want to avoid another spectacle in his first year. You could argue that this kind of pressure led to them getting Devers’ extension done last year (two weeks before Winter Weekend).

One of the reasons Boras loves taking his time with free agents is that he knows that owners and front offices risk losing their fan bases' attention over the winter, or worse, rousing their derision. He uses the media well, knows that news cycles are as short as everyone's attention spans. Good reporters at reputable outlets (Speier at the Globe) uses what Boras will give him cautiously, knowing full well that it's clearly self-serving info but also not wanting to burn a source. Other reporters at outlets whose business models prioritize engagement rather than informing the public, they're happy to use what Boras gives them. And why not? The Sox aren't talking.

Snell and Montgomery are good pitchers, but there are perfectly good reasons not to want to overpay them. The former, an inferior one to David Price when we signed him, wants similar money at $200+ million. The latter, inferior to Chris Sale, wants a contract that far exceeds Sale’s extension. Snell, from Seattle, reportedly wants to stay on the West Coast. And the Rangers are reportedly Montgomery’s “first choice.”

But now Boras has for months laundered the idea that if the Sox don't wildly outbid the field — or at least wildly bid up the cost — for his very good starting pitchers, they will have failed their fans and become a "small-market team."

It's smart strategy on Boras's part. He's doing his job. I'm not arguing that he's bad or anything like that. (I think baseball players should be paid a greater share of total MLB revenue than they are, but I also want the Red Sox to be smart about roster-building within the rules of the game.)

However, we should recognize that Boras is under no obligation to provide information that is true. If he tells Cotillo that the Red Sox are acting like a small-market team, it is no more true just because the Red Sox don't bother to deny it on the record. And nobody — not the Red Sox, not the reporters — are at liberty to tell Boras to buzz off. They all need him to return their phone calls, and vice versa even more so.

Regardless, neither of Boras's guys sign before Imanaga. If he chooses the West Coast too, the pressure on the Sox increases. We whiff on all three and it's confirmation bias city. Everyone howls louder, harder, and we’re in some kind of ownership crisis. Or deeper in one.

Breslow, sensibly, would rather not cave to this kind of pressure in his first year. And, I think rightly, doesn’t want his legacy immediately tethered to the outcome of a risky, prohibitive contract for a very good-not-great starter (one of them seemingly not a great clubhouse guy). He probably likes Burnes and Fried more (I do), and may want to bid on Soto or Vlad Guerrero Jr. next winter and the following. I think he's legitimately in on Imanaga and cautiously in on Montgomery (Feinsand has reported we're in on "two of" BS, JM, and SI), and probably has a deal lined up for an outfielder or two, depending on which hitter or hitters we sign in the next week or so.

I also think it's all going to be fine. The AL East is a dogfight as always, but we're in really good shape going forward. The core is really interesting, and it includes more young pitchers than people realize. The key is not dropping nine-figure deals on guys to complement them when they're obviously bad fits.
 

nvalvo

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After the fact. All we heard was 4/$80m. Didn’t hear anything about what they offered YY. Shit… I’m the Sox and I feed 10/$325 to a reporter as willing to to go but no reason since LAD was foregone conclusion.

I’m speaking more towards the moves with O’Neil and Sale.
Well, we heard Teoscar was *seeking* 4/$80m, not that anyone offered him that. And given that he eventually accepted 1/$23m with some deferrals, do you think he had any offers materially longer or richer than the Sox offer of 2/$28m? I really doubt it, because it would be a terrible idea to invest long term in a guy in his early 30s who *might* bounce back after a terrible offensive season in Seattle, or might be completely cooked. It's also weird for a guy who didn't get offered a QO to get an $80m deal.

And then we heard that LA was maybe possibly going to go to three years, but that's not what he eventually signed.

I think what makes the most sense is that no one offered him more than 2 years, despite his agent's best efforts to float rumors to the contrary. And I also think that as Teoscar, a one-year deal is quite straightforwardly preferable to a two-year deal: he's earned tens of millions already, and as soon as he has a good month that convinces people he's not done (and that the Seattle experience was just a bad fit/down year/whatever), his value shoots back up, and he isn't getting any younger. If he has a great year, you could see him signing a three- or four-year deal a big dollars after his age-32 season. It's harder to see that when he's 33.

So maybe the Sox could have gotten him by offering him a richer one-year deal, or a two-year deal with an opt-out after year one, but I don't know that I would necessarily have wanted them to do that: that limits the upside considerably for a team that should expect to be better in '25 than '24. While I really think a three-year commitment would have been a bad gamble, I might have tried to get to yes with a bit more AAV on a two-year deal: I wouldn't have blinked at 2/$38m, for example.

I also honestly expect Teo to be available at the trade deadline. The Dodgers have a pretty interesting outfield prospect in the high minors in Andy Pages and *very* qualified fourth and fifth outfielders in Manuel Margot and Chris Taylor, and, uhh, there's this guy named Mookie Betts on the roster, as well. Gavin Lux is coming back, too, and they still have Miguel Rojas and a revivified Jason Heyward. If Teo is hitting well but not fielding well (not an unlikely scenario!) and the infielders are clicking, the LAD front office might well decide to ship him out to augment some other area and improve the outfield defense. They have a lot of good outfield options and just signed a DH for $700m (nominal).
 

bosockboy

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One of the pressure points is FanFest/Winter Warmups, where ownership has to face the music with the fans. I’m sure this is in Boras’ arsenal as well.
 

chrisfont9

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Seeing that the team saw fit to put Carrabis up on a duck boat for the 2018 victory parade, I don't think this statement can be easily dismissed. I am curious about the context of what he said, though.
Oh, I think there is total separation between the entertainment side of the house and the baseball side. He has connections but if they are on lockdown, he gets nothing.
 

PedroisGod

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Is Harold Ramirez a guy that would fit nicely? Rays are shopping him. 2nd year arb ... plays outfield and 1b... RH.... Had a pretty good season. What would we have to give up for him?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/rays-trade-rumors-harold-ramirez.html
I like Harold Ramirez. He hits the ball hard, but hits it on the ground a bit too much. He doesn't strike out much, but he also doesn't walk much. He offers very little defensively. I'm not too sure what they'd want, but my first instinct is that if the Rays want something that the Sox have, Breslow should be trying to figure out how to get whatever the Rays are trying to get out of that player for the Sox. I'd probably rather just pay Soler and get the better bat and avoid giving the Rays something that they'll turn into gold.
 

allmanbro

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Is Harold Ramirez a guy that would fit nicely? Rays are shopping him. 2nd year arb ... plays outfield and 1b... RH.... Had a pretty good season. What would we have to give up for him?

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/rays-trade-rumors-harold-ramirez.html
Ramirez would be interesting if he could be basically free (and he might be close to it).

The Rays IF in general is so stocked, and they even just traded for Caballero to replace Franco at SS. Paredes would be such a great fit for the Sox, but I assume would cost two arms and a leg, and would never happen. But the Rays could trade him and replace him with Caminero/Mead without much (if any) loss in 3b production in 2024, and probably better production in 2025 and on. Who wouldn't want a Caminero/Caballero left side of the infield?
 

jbupstate

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There are lots of reasons why "leaks" occur, especially from inside an organization. Maybe the person speaking with Speier is annoyed that the Sox are essentially cutting themselves out of the free agent market before they get a real chance to jump into it. Maybe the person is fed up with the pressure that Warner put on the FO by saying that they're "going full throttle" and is essentially saying, "yeah, we'd love to go full throttle if only Ownership didn't put a governor on the engine." Perhaps one of the people who interviewed for Brelsow's position and is pissed that he/she didn't get the job and wants to grease the skids a little bit for his/her new boss.

It might not even be someone from the Sox FO. Baseball is a tight community of teenagers who love to gossip. It could be that someone from the outside is throwing real shade at the Sox.

There are a million other reasons why these comments could be true. I've been on record saying that the Red Sox beat writers are among the best in MLB and they don't simply make stuff up. That goes triple for a person like Alex Speier who is about the opposite of a hot-take shit thrower I've ever read. Does he have his biases? Of course he does, all writers do but slamming management without provocation isn't one of them.

Since the end of 2019, the Red Sox Front Office has changed their free agent philosophy: they're not going to overpay or overextend a FA and won't sign anyone unless it's a team-friendly deal. We're literally on offseason five of this and I don't think that they're ever going back to the poet on payday ways of blowing money on free agents. That's kind of where we are in 2024. Will it be cool if they made a big splash? But I'm not holding my breath anymore. And it doesn't seem like baseball as an industry or the people who write about baseball disagree.

EDIT: or to put it another way: Krusty the Klown is getting smashed at Wimbledon and we're stuck with Barney in clown makeup.

I have no idea what you mean with your last sentence. Baseball free agent negotiations are fluid. Where one day it looks like a player is headed to one club (Hernandez was "a day away" from signing with the Sox two weeks ago), he could ultimately head to another club when talks break down. Are you asking for writers to state that Player X is definitely going to Team Y as a measure of competance? If so, how come?
I could have left out the last sentence. Didn’t add to anything. Not sure I took a stand… much less one that demanded such a long winded response.

Still don’t understand what’s negative about lurking with regards to Imanaga. Doesn’t say out and that leaves some hope.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Still don’t understand what’s negative about lurking with regards to Imanaga. Doesn’t say out and that leaves some hope.
I have to think the negative connotation - at least that I admit I'm reading it as from Speier's report, is that the Sox aren't at the front of the pack in trying to land the player.

Now, could that be that they've made their pitch and offer, it's better than everyone else' offer and they're just lurking there waiting for him to take 5/$125m from them because they know he's not going to get close to that from the other suitors. Of course. Certainly possible. I don't discount that, but I'd also say there's like a 20% chance that is what was meant by "lurking."

Based on the way they've handled starting pitching at the MLB level for the past half decade or so, could it also mean that they're lurking by the bar waiting for 2am and then taking home whatever is the cheapest option left vs expending any real effort to do better earlier in the night - while understanding that it could end up looking really bad the next morning (or two years down the road) - and they do something like end up with a rotation of Bello, Giolito, Crawford, Ryu, Paxton and swing Pivetta again. It certainly could mean that as well. Based on the past 4 seasons of track record, I'm assuming the 80% here is more likely.





A couple of obvious caveats - a) really good pitchers are still out there beyond Imanaga, b) the trade market exists and I know both of those things. Though it's not fair for me (or anyone) to just say "I hate that x, y, z" moves after the fact if you're not saying it either a) in real time or b) more interestingly - taking a stand on what you'd like to see happen instead.

*It's why I spent so much time last year hoping for more middle class starting pitching to be signed and then complaining when it didn't happen. It's also why I spent so much time saying what I'd do leading up to the 2023 deadline and then being upset when nothing really happened. And it's why I'm trying to - I hope respectfully to you - share how I'm taking the comment differently and saying what I hope to happen. Then, of course, we'll see what it all looks like in Spring Training.
 
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John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I could have left out the last sentence. Didn’t add to anything. Not sure I took a stand… much less one that demanded such a long winded response.

Still don’t understand what’s negative about lurking with regards to Imanaga. Doesn’t say out and that leaves some hope.
I don't think that there's any negativity in saying that the Sox are lurking either, it says to me that they're still in the mix and that there's hope that he could come to Boston. However, one could read that same sentence is that the Sox will only get Imanaga if the leading teams fall out. In other words, they're waiting for a team to mess up and aren't actively taking a role in wooing him.

Like you've said, the Sox seem to have spent a lot of time and energy scouting him so I'm not sure what changed in the last week or so--unless the teams bidding for his services have crazily driven up his asking price.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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One of the pressure points is FanFest/Winter Warmups, where ownership has to face the music with the fans. I’m sure this is in Boras’ arsenal as well.
I haven't seen this reported and only saw a member here mention this, but don't believe there will be a formal Town Hall this year at Winter Weekend? In going to the Winter Weekend website, the Town Hall was not listed as an activity. So for better or worse it appears there will be no "facing the music" with the fans there.
 

ehaz

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I don't think that there's any negativity in saying that the Sox are lurking either, it says to me that they're still in the mix and that there's hope that he could come to Boston. However, one could read that same sentence is that the Sox will only get Imanaga if the leading teams fall out. In other words, they're waiting for a team to mess up and aren't actively taking a role in wooing him.

Like you've said, the Sox seem to have spent a lot of time and energy scouting him so I'm not sure what changed in the last week or so--unless the teams bidding for his services have crazily driven up his asking price.
According to Mark Feinsand a few minutes ago, "it's all pointing to" San Francisco being the favorite for Imanaga.

https://www.mlb.com/news/shota-imanaga-free-agent-market?partnerID=mlbapp-iOS_article-share
 

Archer1979

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Or his agent is so claiming.
This probably has its roots in almost every tweet where its stated that the Sox are in on Player X (and with DETAILS).

Agents need the Sox on the suitor's lists. That the Sox have a lot of money is a bonus for guys like Boras even if they don't spend it. That said, @chawson has a point, with the Sox being, not only tight-lipped, but also tighter on the purse strings than they have been on the past is not good for business from an agent's perspective.

I haven't had high expecations for the Sox in the off-season when it comes to free agency. After seeing what happened around the league this year (specifically San Diego and LA Dodgers), I'm inclined to think that you can't buy your way into contention without a good foundation from which to build. My thinking is that the Sox front office isn't going to be on the big hitters in any given year until they think that they have a solid shot at being a legit contender. The secondary issue with the Sox and FA is mid-tier players are getting upper-tier offers at this stage in FA. At which point, they'll start hunting for scraps once the market gets a bit more sane. Teams like the SF Giants have the money and are desperate to spend it which also drives up the price.

Its not a great look from a fan persepctive, but I'm getting the same vibe out of this as I did with the '84/'85 Sox. If they can start getting great production from the home-grown/cost-controlled players or make needle-moving trades using their farm, the Sox will start to spend big. Until then, it will be for guys to plug the holes.

The tl;dr version of this is that I don't think that the Sox front office is going to spend big unless it puts them in the contender discussion.
 

simplicio

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I like the Harold Ramirez idea, he does back up Casas and Yoshida and that's a good thing, and seems like he could likely be had for non-essential future pieces, which is exactly what we should be doing with our milb depth. I think my current order of preference is:

Turner
Ramirez
Soler
Duvall

If they're going after him in the same way they did with Jung Ho Lee, I don't see the sense in trying to compete with that.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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After seeing what happened around the league this year (specifically San Diego and LA Dodgers),
Not to single you out Arch, but the more that I think about San Diego's spending spree last year, the more that I think that was an anomaly. Owner Pete Seidler was dying, it wouldn't surprise me that he knew that he didn't have long to live and instructed his FO to buy everyone that they could so that he could see them win. Obviously it didn't go their way and he passed away without ever seeing his beloved team hold the trophy, but your point is correct in that super teams aren't always going to win and usually baseball teams built with stars need a year or two to gel before they get good (for whatever reason). The Pads didn't have a lot of time to gel, Seidler died and the jettisoning of stars began a few months back.

Even if they don't win, super teams are usually fun to watch. Add to the circumstances of Padre ownership and I was bummed out that San Diego didn't make a run.
 

Mike473

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Jul 31, 2006
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I say we go all in. Jettison Trevor Story and Connor Wong and let's see if we can assemble the worst fielding team in history.
I like Soler a lot more than most but the problem with him is he just cannot play in the field what so ever. So you are then forced into a DH/LF platoon with Soler and Yoshida which means you are looking at 100 games of Yoshida in left. Obviously less than ideal.

This team still has a lot of defensive work needed. I'm not so sure the easiest path to that isn't just trading Duran and plugging in Rafaela in center. But they have to accomplish some defensive upgrades beyond just Story (which is admittedly huge)
There has to be a better option than Soler. Seriously. As for Story, he is a huge upgrade, if he can stay on the field.
 

Mike473

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Jul 31, 2006
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Here’s what I think is happening.

Boras is putting the screws to the Sox. (Other agents have followed suit). He knows that we're in a protracted PR crisis after Mookie, and that Winter Weekend is approaching, and Breslow and the Sox FO want to avoid another spectacle in his first year. You could argue that this kind of pressure led to them getting Devers’ extension done last year (two weeks before Winter Weekend).

One of the reasons Boras loves taking his time with free agents is that he knows that owners and front offices risk losing their fan bases' attention over the winter, or worse, rousing their derision. He uses the media well, knows that news cycles are as short as everyone's attention spans. Good reporters at reputable outlets (Speier at the Globe) uses what Boras will give him cautiously, knowing full well that it's clearly self-serving info but also not wanting to burn a source. Other reporters at outlets whose business models prioritize engagement rather than informing the public, they're happy to use what Boras gives them. And why not? The Sox aren't talking.

Snell and Montgomery are good pitchers, but there are perfectly good reasons not to want to overpay them. The former, an inferior one to David Price when we signed him, wants similar money at $200+ million. The latter, inferior to Chris Sale, wants a contract that far exceeds Sale’s extension. Snell, from Seattle, reportedly wants to stay on the West Coast. And the Rangers are reportedly Montgomery’s “first choice.”

But now Boras has for months laundered the idea that if the Sox don't wildly outbid the field — or at least wildly bid up the cost — for his very good starting pitchers, they will have failed their fans and become a "small-market team."

It's smart strategy on Boras's part. He's doing his job. I'm not arguing that he's bad or anything like that. (I think baseball players should be paid a greater share of total MLB revenue than they are, but I also want the Red Sox to be smart about roster-building within the rules of the game.)

However, we should recognize that Boras is under no obligation to provide information that is true. If he tells Cotillo that the Red Sox are acting like a small-market team, it is no more true just because the Red Sox don't bother to deny it on the record. And nobody — not the Red Sox, not the reporters — are at liberty to tell Boras to buzz off. They all need him to return their phone calls, and vice versa even more so.

Regardless, neither of Boras's guys sign before Imanaga. If he chooses the West Coast too, the pressure on the Sox increases. We whiff on all three and it's confirmation bias city. Everyone howls louder, harder, and we’re in some kind of ownership crisis. Or deeper in one.

Breslow, sensibly, would rather not cave to this kind of pressure in his first year. And, I think rightly, doesn’t want his legacy immediately tethered to the outcome of a risky, prohibitive contract for a very good-not-great starter (one of them seemingly not a great clubhouse guy). He probably likes Burnes and Fried more (I do), and may want to bid on Soto or Vlad Guerrero Jr. next winter and the following. I think he's legitimately in on Imanaga and cautiously in on Montgomery (Feinsand has reported we're in on "two of" BS, JM, and SI), and probably has a deal lined up for an outfielder or two, depending on which hitter or hitters we sign in the next week or so.

I also think it's all going to be fine. The AL East is a dogfight as always, but we're in really good shape going forward. The core is really interesting, and it includes more young pitchers than people realize. The key is not dropping nine-figure deals on guys to complement them when they're obviously bad fits.
I will be in Springfield to see it. I imagine it will be even worse than the last time. They have to take their medicine there and move on.
 

chrisfont9

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Well I'm sure the usual suspects will start screaming at the Sox if this happens, but all we know about Imanaga is that he's mostly great when he's not allowing long fly balls. SF has a pretty favorable park factor for doubles and homers, which I suspect is like Seattle in that the thick marine air often keeps the fly balls down a bit, in addition to pretty average or greater fence distances. Fenway is not where you want a lefty who gives up too many long flies. How much this one bit of analysis ends up defining his MLB performance, I dunno, but it would be one simple explanation of why the Giants would value him higher than the Sox.

That said, there is one source for the story, and all he (?) says for this conclusion is that they missed out on other guys and will therefore be anxious to sign someone, which isn't really how smart teams work.
 

Mike473

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Jul 31, 2006
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If we went back to the end of last season, who would have imagined the off season panning out like it has so far?
 

jbupstate

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Not sure how to attempt to make this point…

The situation the Sox are in really has them over a barrel with agents and other front offices. The pressure and need to make something happen is so great and the leverage being applied by fans, media and all others makes improving the team immediately a tough task.

Knowing you have to potentially overpay dramatically to guarantee a transaction makes business tough.

I don’t think he did a great job overall but I admire Bloom for taking on an impossible task. Before anyone jumps on that comment… I blame FSG for Bloom’s marching orders to rebuild AND compete for playoffs. An absolute threading of the needle request. It almost paid off in 2021. But not selling down to the studs really hurts in retrospect.

It’s not the hopeless feeling I had from 1976 - 2003. I absolutely cherish the championships but it’s going to take some magic to get back there. Maybe Mayer turns into a Xander or Nomar. Maybe Anthony is a dynamic player like a Betts. Maybe the Marlins make a silly trade to us. Lots of maybe.

Still a solid core of young guys who are fun to watch. I’m coming around to the thought of see what we have with the kids… keep the older guys who take year to year contracts off the team. Just noise.

An eff the NYY and LAD.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I think the Sox are approaching the market in a similar fashion to the post few years; investigating lots of opportunities, and attempting to find value, while not being all that interested in any one individual player with the idea that they have a variety of options to which they can improve the team. So it’s great if Hernandez would have taken their offer, but if not, they will move on to Soler, and then maybe Duvall, etc etc.

I think they are betting that eventually someone will take their money on their terms. It’s not very satisfying as a fan, but waiting out the market isn’t the worst idea, and it seems like a lot of teams are doing this (and probably explains why Hernandez jumped on an LA offer that didn’t appear to be that great).
 

ehaz

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Well I'm sure the usual suspects will start screaming at the Sox if this happens, but all we know about Imanaga is that he's mostly great when he's not allowing long fly balls. SF has a pretty favorable park factor for doubles and homers, which I suspect is like Seattle in that the thick marine air often keeps the fly balls down a bit, in addition to pretty average or greater fence distances. Fenway is not where you want a lefty who gives up too many long flies. How much this one bit of analysis ends up defining his MLB performance, I dunno, but it would be one simple explanation of why the Giants would value him higher than the Sox.
Trevor Bauer had some interesting comments today about Imanaga in a podcast today (they were teammates last year), particularly about his fly ball pitcher profile. "I think what people miss though is... that's a fly ball pitcher in Japan, where it's hard to generate fly balls because the swing planes are flat, and people are trying to hit the ball on the ground." "So you think he's getting above barrels here [in MLB]?" "Yeah for sure."

Bauer went on to say that he doesn't think MLB hitters are really going to be able to hit his fastball. His primary concern on Imanaga was whether he can maintain his velocity upon transitioning to a 5-man rotation because he thinks the fastball is more hittable if he loses velo.

Skip to minute 36 if you just want the Imanaga scouting report and don't care for the Bauer redemption tour. I only listened to those 8 minutes but Middlebrooks also asked him about Yoshida's 2nd half struggles and they talk about some of the off-field issues with NPB/MLB transitions generally.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqpPHjIR2gM
 

Yelling At Clouds

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There are a million other reasons why these comments could be true. I've been on record saying that the Red Sox beat writers are among the best in MLB and they don't simply make stuff up. That goes triple for a person like Alex Speier who is about the opposite of a hot-take shit thrower I've ever read. Does he have his biases? Of course he does, all writers do but slamming management without provocation isn't one of them.

Since the end of 2019, the Red Sox Front Office has changed their free agent philosophy: they're not going to overpay or overextend a FA and won't sign anyone unless it's a team-friendly deal. We're literally on offseason five of this and I don't think that they're ever going back to the poet on payday ways of blowing money on free agents. That's kind of where we are in 2024. Will it be cool if they made a big splash? But I'm not holding my breath anymore. And it doesn't seem like baseball as an industry or the people who write about baseball disagree.

EDIT: or to put it another way: Krusty the Klown is getting smashed at Wimbledon and we're stuck with Barney in clown makeup.
I’ve been thinking about this. Before I start, I want to clarify that I’m not disagreeing with you, and I’m not really intending any of this as an endorsement or a condemnation of where the team is at right now. But you could argue that at the moment, the Henry era has been defined by two things: 1) Ringz and 2) Trading expensive baseball players. There have been a lot of high-profile trades of high-profile players! Manny, Josh Beckett, Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, David Price, Chris Sale. Then some smaller names, too, like Edgar Renteria, Coco Crisp, the 2013 cast of characters, etc. And in that time I think (?) they’ve only really done one “sell off” as we generally understand the term, in 2014. Plus guys like Pablo Sandoval who were straight-up DFA’d! I’m not sure how this compares to other organizations in terms of the dollars and, I guess, “star power” for want of a better term going out of the organization. But it sure seems like it’s a lot. And I’m not even counting that one guy (he has his own thread, take it there).

I can already hear some of you tapping out your replies, so I’ll say it: most of these were the “right” thing to do! Or at the very least they were defensible. (I’m still mad at BC about the Lackey trade.) And one could argue that many or even most of these signings were bad to begin with, and not even with the benefit of hindsight. Both valid positions! But not my point. I bring this up to note that it kind of seems like he’s never really been super-comfortable with the old free-spending ways, and maybe - even though that approach has brought him success in the past - now he’s just saying “nope, not doing that again.” Maybe.

Or maybe they’re about to give Imanaga a seven-year deal, I have no idea.
 
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Trapaholic

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I have not kept up with this thread, so apologies if this has already been covered:

If we assume that there will not be any free agents signed this winter that are going to be 2+ years in length, let's look at the payroll for 2026 as currently constituted. There is only a handful of guys making a lot of money at that point:

Devers - probably not going anywhere
Story - Player option. Not sure what the market will be, but it is hard to see him getting a better deal than he has now
Whitlock - $7.5 mil; valuable piece
Giolito - this may not come into play if he opts out after this year
Yoshida - $18.5 mil. Not terrible but could be bad if he is truly a DH only

Basically everyone else is on a rookie deal. Pivetta is a UFA after this year.

Is 2026 the year that the FO is allowed to go "all in"? Based on Sportrac, here are the free agents of note:

Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Tucker
Luis Robert Jr
Marcell Ozuna

Of course this does not factor in signing guys that are currently on the roster to extensions, or trading for guys then extending them. I guess I am just hung up on the significance of that 2 year window, if that is indeed the case.
 

Rovin Romine

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I have not kept up with this thread, so apologies if this has already been covered:

If we assume that there will not be any free agents signed this winter that are going to be 2+ years in length, let's look at the payroll for 2026 as currently constituted. There is only a handful of guys making a lot of money at that point:

Devers - probably not going anywhere
Story - Player option. Not sure what the market will be, but it is hard to see him getting a better deal than he has now
Whitlock - $7.5 mil; valuable piece
Giolito - this may not come into play if he opts out after this year
Yoshida - $18.5 mil. Not terrible but could be bad if he is truly a DH only

Basically everyone else is on a rookie deal. Pivetta is a UFA after this year.

Is 2026 the year that the FO is allowed to go "all in"? Based on Sportrac, here are the free agents of note:

Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Tucker
Luis Robert Jr
Marcell Ozuna

Of course this does not factor in signing guys that are currently on the roster to extensions, or trading for guys then extending them. I guess I am just hung up on the significance of that 2 year window, if that is indeed the case.
Frankly it does not make much sense to me. Like if Breslow could sign a key FA to a two year deal, or a three year deal at better value, he only has the option of the second? I kinda doubt it.

The only thing I could think of two support a two-year FA cap was if a bunch of key players were hitting arb in year 3 and they want to keep costs down for that future eventuality. . .Bello, Casas, Winckowski, Abreu.

But that seems far fetched.
 

SouthernBoSox

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We've been put in a position where we will have to deal top level prospects for pitching, when we could have signed pitching. At this point, I'd be absolutely stunned if they signed anyone of any real meaning.
 

bosockboy

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Frankly it does not make much sense to me. Like if Breslow could sign a key FA to a two year deal, or a three year deal at better value, he only has the option of the second? I kinda doubt it.

The only thing I could think of two support a two-year FA cap was if a bunch of key players were hitting arb in year 3 and they want to keep costs down for that future eventuality. . .Bello, Casas, Winckowski, Abreu.

But that seems far fetched.
At the risk of backlash as this gets thrown around occasionally, it has a vibe of selling the team.
 
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