This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots
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Count me in as one who agrees with BB being a poor judge of WR talent.
Lack of analytic use?!!! Do tell.
Yes - I get that.
"He" (BB) doesn't use it.
So what? Where's the proof that it works in football? And where's the proof that the failure to use 'analytics' (whatever that's defined as) causes long-term failure for an NFL franchise?
Um. Their offense is bad. It would be amazing with analytics throwing the ball. Duh.
Obviously maudlin, but sad it ends like this. I suppose all things do, but I wish Bill and even Bob had a more dignified finale.
I just don't understand this sentiment...at...all. I agree he built this mess but that's why he needs to go. Amazing coach* (*TomBrady) but the Pats need a clean break from BB. Under the next coach's tenure they'll probably suck balls as well given the offensive roster construction so why not start rebuilding now.
Pats won 4 games this year how is this even a discussion.
Really? You don’t get why people might want to give the guy who went to 9 Super Bowls in 18 years one more season to see if he can right the ship? At all?
You're right. He did it once, 22 years ago and has done nothing since then. Seriously, no GM in history has put together more great teams over a longer time span than BB, so yeah, I think it's likely he can do it again.
This thread is madness and more like an old-school V&N thread than a BBTL thread.
They also literally went to the playoffs 2 years ago, and were in a win and in last year... it's not like they have been terrible for multiple years, they were a competitive team every year until this one.
People can want to move on, but it's not even close to a slam dunk, not even clear it would be if Bill wasn't the most successful coach ever.
There are two answers to this.
First, perhaps everyone who is reluctant to see BB go hasn't adjusted to the reality you are seeing. Alternatively, your post sort of suggests that there is absolutely no room for you to be wrong about this topic. But what if you are actually wrong about this topic?
For the record, I too want the Patriots to compete again but I am not sure what the best course is here. My only lean is that if you want the best chance to tempt someone into a job that may not be great relative to some other landing spots, you can dangle the opportunity to help pick the key ingredients.
That said, if they keep him, I am nowhere near as certain as you that its the wrong decision.
I hear ya on the “competitive” component, and to me that’s because Bill is still a helluva coach.
However, I also think Bill has made a lot of poor personnel decisions going back to the off-season heading into 2019.
If Bill is let go I think it’s because of his failure as GM.
I agree. Under a new coach, the offense may be better, the defense is likely to be worse, we will see horrible time management at end of games like we see all over the league each week and we know we won't get some truly horrible long term contracts that kills teams.
Oh I think Bill has definitely made plenty of mistakes, and it isn't insane to move on from him, just like it wouldn't be insane to keep him. I just was noting that maybe people aren't clear on how the rest of the league lives after 2 decades because the last 4 years really only has 1 bad one by rest of the league standards. Not ideal, but not some disaster that means the coach must be fired. I mean... McVay's Rams went 5-12 last year, even the best teams just have disaster years sometimes when their line/QBs are bad and/or hurt.
What evidence have you seen that he can build a formidable offensive roster?
Not sure why the strawman is necessary. All the greats become less effective at some point. He’s lost important staff over the years that helped him to those great teams and hasn’t replaced them well.
I find the “people are dumb because they’re second guessing a guy on the verge of retirement” more V&N than curiosity about what he has left in the tank. There’s no need to be dismissive when it’s clearly an interesting conversation for the entire board.
That doesn't mean I don’t think teams have a lot of agency when it comes to what happens with their QBs.
I just don't think it's so clear when choosing QBs, or any prospect, that this guy is clearly awesome and this guy stinks.
I said I thought it was likely that Buffalo if they had the higher pick that they would've taken Darnold. Darnold and Mayfield were a fairly consensus top two QBs in that draft by the draftniks, then the next three were Allen, Lamar and Josh Rosen in different orders.
It's possible Buffalo had Allen ahead of Darnold, but I'd guess they didn't and just didn't have a high enough pick to get him. But they still had the agency to choose among Allen/Lamar/Rosen, or choose another position or trade back, and they used that agency to hit a home run.
I think we all as fans see things as more black and white. Buffalo saw something in Josh Allen and knew Darnold stunk. Maybe. Or maybe they also would've been wrong, but weren't in the position to be wrong so we'll never know. I think luck plays a much bigger part in these things than fans generally think, and that doesn't mean I believe it's all luck.
I mean, as Patriots fans we should know this. If any other team had just picked Tom Brady before pick 199, we may still be here wondering if the Patriots will ever win a championship.
Your post wondered how someone could be of two minds whether to keep BB. We don't need to get into a rehash of his roster building record that has dominated just about every thread around this season.
I don't share your view of BB overall but if they part ways, it feels like a logical place to end things. I am just not as certain as you that its the best decision for the franchise.
This team has been not been that well-coached the past few years. Penalties, mental mistakes, not being lined up right, spending timeouts to get correct personnel on the field, bad special teams, etc.
I am very appreciative of what Bill gave this franchise, but it’s time to move on and that’s ok. Everything eventually runs its course.
Recency bias. Penalties and mistakes happened on this team since Bill has been here. It is magnified because the team is losing this year.
Yeah, it was funny going into the "What was" thread, watching replays of key games and seeing just the same mystifying penalties and mistakes even at the height of the dynasty. Difference is we had way more talent so we made up for it and it didn't kill drives.
Some penalties are coaching, a lot of them are just bad players getting beat. The only ones I think are on coaches often is delay of game (can be QB too) but those are usually playcaller errors, I'd have to look it up but feel like there were way more last year than this, and getting plays in on time was a struggle sometimes for Patricia (who was bad, and we should blame Bill for that).
I think it's pretty much consensus among people who cover the league that Bill is still one of the best coaches in the league in terms of preparing his team, scheming up defenses etc. He needs better offenses much of which has been on Bill the GM... not enough top end talent, and unimaginative playcallers/schemes that set up to hide the QB, but a passcatching corps that is set up for a good QB.
He did try to go to some new stuff in the Patricia year, but the ditched it pretty quick when they struggled and went back to familiar.
It’s not just this year. The frequency of them were as bad or worse last year as well. Combine that with the utter decay of the offense and we find ourselves where we are today.
Far more last year actually. This year the Patriots has the 9th FEWEST penalties, last year it was 10th most.
Superbowl years were a mixed bag, 2018 and 2016 they had 5th and 7th Fewest, but 2014 they had 4th most.
I don't think there is much of a correlation, just that penalties and mistakes hurt bad teams a lot more than good ones because they lack the ability to play from behind the sticks.
Jordan Love being lifted by his surroundings? It's the same receiving cast Rodgers had a poor season with last year plus rookies. They are all talented, but what he did this season was super impressive, it's not easy to put together a good passing game with nothing but young guys, no matter how good they are.
Will the Patriots also be ranked bottom 3 in EPA lost due to decisions to punt/kick on 4th down as they have been consistently for the past, say, 8 years? And I'll take a better offense at the cost of a worse defense any day of the week, the Jets, Saints, Patriots and Raiders were all in the top 9 of defensive EPA/Play and missed the playoffs, three of those teams didn't come particularly close. It's an offense driven league, prioritize that side of the ball.
It seems there's at least some evidence that this worm might be starting to turn. Anecdotally, offenses across the leagues looked pretty bad this year. (The number two and number six offenses by points scored grinded out a 21-14 game in great weather with tons on the line in a sloppy, turnover filled game just last night)
Statistically, 2.38 ALLTD is the lowest number since 2006. 1.39 RecTD is a tick higher than 2022 but much lower than 2010 - 2021. 218 passing yards per game is similar to last year but again down over the last decade. 4.1 TD% on passes is the lowest since '06. 10.9 YPC (tied with 2022) is actually the lowest in NFL history (unless my eyes are lying). 331 yards per game is the lowest since '08.
Looks like ol' Rog and the boys are going to have to go back to the lab and start handicapping the defenses through some rule changes because it looks like the defenses have caught up.
I thought this was an informative watch:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgbN4iCA6us
I thought this was pretty interesting in terms of a nuanced media response:
View: https://twitter.com/FoxworthShow/status/1744335672305951042
basically.... most GMs aren't great over a long stretch, most shiny new coaches fail. It's easy to pick apart the failures of a coach/GM over a long enough period, but there is a tendency to wish on potential that will never go anywhere over proven success with flaws.
View: https://twitter.com/FoxworthShow/status/1744335672305951042
basically.... most GMs aren't great over a long stretch, most shiny new coaches fail. It's easy to pick apart the failures of a coach/GM over a long enough period, but there is a tendency to wish on potential that will never go anywhere over proven success with flaws.
I wasn't being dismissive of the conversation in general. I was being dismissive of you saying he built a team 22 years ago with a different staff. There was no strawman, it was a direct response to the idea that BB only built a good team with that staff.
The conversation in this thread is often very interesting and very informative, but also filled with a lot of "But he's old!!" and "Different is better because different is better", and that is what reminded me of old V&N.
The Jordan Love situation is another example of putting a young QB into a situation to succeed, IMO. He started the season with 2 really good games, albeit against a Chicago team that was a disaster defensively and then in a dome at Atlanta. Then he went into a funk that would have had folks around here calling for Bailey Zappe to take over for him, 2-5 over 7 games, 8tds, 10ints, and a rating of 72.5.
But then things started clicking between him and his receiving corps. Folks got healthy (particularly Christian Watson) and they ran into a favorable schedule and he went off with 18tds and 1 pick, a ridiculous 112 rating and a 6-2 record. Now, he really only played one good defense (KC) in that stretch, IMO, but as I've said, you play the schedule.
But here's what I noticed. Green Bay's front office, after realizing they fucked up letting Adams walk, went crazy looking for offense. In the 2023 draft, they went TE at Pick #42 (Musgrave), WR at pick #50 (Jaden Reed, looks like a keeper), TE again at #78 (Kraft, who is going to be a player), and then took another WR in the 5th (Wicks) and yet another wide receiver in the 7th...That's 5 pass catchers in one draft. This was after they went WR in the 2nd round (Watson), 5th round (Dobbs) and 7th in 2022.
They took 2 tight ends and 6 wide receivers in back to back drafts. And they've built a young corps that has spent their time building chemistry with their young QB and their offensive line, even after losing Bakhtari, has been really good, and as important, really healthy, all season.
You also know what else Green Bay has? A young offensive minded coach.
I was providing context. Clearly there are differences between the successful run that he had over 20 years and the less than successful run he's had recently. It seems just as V&N to pretend like everything's the same as it was during that time, including him (as if your energy doesn't decrease as you age).
The staff isn't the only reason that he was successful - he's obviously a great coach - but it's important to note that he's had a difficult time getting consistency, for example, on the OL without Scarnecchia.
All of this is accurate except for your Christian Watson note. He hasn't played since December 3rd (although he did have his best game of the year on December 3rd) and he had 28 catches the entire year. He was great for two games the entire season, Thanksgiving and the week after. But that was it for him for the rest of the season. He only played 9 games.
It was Reed and Wicks who popped. And even Melton. But the rest is accurate, they tried to put the pieces there for him to succeed. And he did. The Pats got Thorton, Boutte, and Mikey Gesicki.
Watson was hurt early in the season too. He missed the first 3 games due to a hamstring injury, then came back and didn't look himself at all. As he started to get better, he was starting to get it going and had 14 catches for 186 yards and 4 tds in his last 3 games, before the season ending injury.
Those 3 games match up exactly with Love's turnaround after the dreadful start to the season. The following week, without Watson, Love had a bad game in a loss to the Giants, and then went on another tear with Reed and Wicks stepping up, and Kraft taking over for the injured Musgrave. They also had Aaron Jones return and get healthy, and he went for 127, 120 and 111 on the ground the last 3 games and they stopped resting him for AJ Dillon.
That's such a good little team they are putting together. I'm excited to see what they do next year.
Imagine trying to improve an offense by getting a ton of good players?
SEEMS CRAZY ENOUGH TO WORK!
Or just, you know, taking a ton of actual skill position players, and hoping you hit on like 50% of them.
But those 4th and 5th rounders are usually better spent on kickers and punters.
When you have a chance to get a guy who will hit 64% of his field goals, you gotta do it.
Honestly I was fine with taking a kicker in the 4th because the Pats have been good with kickers since 1996 or so and haven't really had a bad one since Scott Sisson or Jason Staurovsky. So I thought if they ID's Ryland as another Ghost we'd be good.
Whoopsie. Ryland is a bust. Hopefully they cut bait this offseason.
The thing is, you can find kickers.
The Browns blew a high draft pick on Cade York a few years and that guy was worse than Ryland. Then they scooped up Dustin Hopkins off whatever scrap heap he was lying on and he was an integral part in a number of wins with last second kicks. 33 for 36 with his kicks this year.
That doesn’t always work - see Matt Ruhle, Arthur Smith, Kliff Kingsbury, Josh McDaniels, Frank Reich, etc etc.
Luckily the Kraft family is pretty good, 2 for 2, hiring HOF caliber coaches…although both of them defensive.
Yup. Or look at Dallas with Brandon Aubrey.
Kickers are a weird group and very hard to draft/project
Someone here ran the breakdown on the Steelers' reputed prowess in drafting WRs, and I believe the "secret sauce" finding was they drafted a lot of them more than displayed a great hit rate on selections.
You “can” find kickers on the scrap heap, undrafted free agency but it’s akin to a lottery ticket. Most of those guys are awful, just like most draft picks are bad. The vast majority of college kickers simply aren’t NFL material in terms of college accuracy/power. Once you narrow guys down to “he has an NFL leg” you have to hope the mechanics/confidence/ability under pressure/kicking in bad weather factors all align
Kickers sometimes get a lot better (Vinatieri, Koo, even Folk to a lesser degree) but it’s painful in the interim. Some never get a chance to get better, some get a lot of chances and only get to the point of “emergency guy” (Matt Ammendola for example)
not just a lot of them but a lot of fairly premium picks. Their “secret sauce” didn’t help with Sammy Coates, Limas Sweed, Dri Archer, James Washington or Markus Wheaton (arguably didn’t help with Claypool who doesn’t exactly look great these days or Martavis Bryant but we can give them benefit of the doubt on those guys).
There are all sorts of practical reasons for this (contract terms, Rooney rule requirements, and so forth), but it also would not surprise me if RKK would, akin to Brady, give BB a handshake and thanks for all your contributions if BB wanted to leave.
This is my exact thought. If the process is as collaborative as BB said it was this morning, the brain drain of Adams, Scar, Pioli, Weis, and add Caserio is being felt. BB should only stay on if he builds back this infrastructure. He needs to have a plan for the Pats post his retirement.
I'd bet that BB objects to the word analytics not the practice. He's been "scouting tendencies" since he was in diapers and now someone wants to call that "analytics". I have no doubt that he knows how often a coach blitzes on third and short in the red zone and that goes into his decision making.
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