his era is a mirage, he walks a fucking ton of guys and never stays in games long. He's just about a lock to be a 4.5-5 era starter in Fenway and a giant waste of money.Is there a reason to not want the reigning Cy Young winner in Snell?
his era is a mirage, he walks a fucking ton of guys and never stays in games long. He's just about a lock to be a 4.5-5 era starter in Fenway and a giant waste of money.Is there a reason to not want the reigning Cy Young winner in Snell?
Yeah, there's also a good chance Rafaela is a 3-4 win player year-in, year-out because of his defense, and that he pushes 4 and 5 some years because he has a good run of batting luck. We have, uh, one of those guys as a position player right now, unless Story rounds back into form and Casas becomes much better defensively.I'm generally down on Rafaela because I share the concerns about his plate discipline, but I think he'd have more value than what we'd think. Grissom was never a top 100 prospect. Rafaela was #72 on MLB.com's most recent rankings, and Keith Law had him at #48. I think there's a good chance he could be used as the prospect centerpiece for a controllable starter.
This is more of a function of Grissom getting rushed to Atlanta at the age of 21 with 98 AA at bats. He didn’t even have a chance to make top 100 boards before he lost eligibilit.I'm generally down on Rafaela because I share the concerns about his plate discipline, but I think he'd have more value than what we'd think. Grissom was never a top 100 prospect. Rafaela was #72 on MLB.com's most recent rankings, and Keith Law had him at #48. I think there's a good chance he could be used as the prospect centerpiece for a controllable starter.
This is how I see it too. I doubt anyone with inside info is just giving it up voluntarily - they’re trying to signal the market in some way (or it could be a give one, get one situation but less likely with a local reporter). In this case, it’s not a Red Sox team source as there’s really no benefit to leaking this because it could potentially impact leverage in trade negotiations. It’s unlikely to be another team as they wouldn’t have insight into the Sox spending constraints (again why would the Sox want that info leaked). So the most likely source is an agent. And my guess would be to keep the Sox as a potential destination (whether real or perceived) for one of the top names on the market.Its an agent full stop. This isnt the first time Chis and masslive wrote an article this week alone that essentially said the sox are cheap.
Agreed--I'd prefer to roll the dice with Imanaga if they're going to go with another high-risk guyhis era is a mirage, he walks a fucking ton of guys and never stays in games long. He's just about a lock to be a 4.5-5 era starter in Fenway and a giant waste of money.
It's the difference between normal leverage and something extra based on a reputation of spending. Boston, like any team with a need and money to spend, can be used as leverage. But the leverage an agent can invoke by implying the Red Sox are interested in their client is less (possibly significantly so) than the implication that the Dodgers or the Mets are interested. The Mets, Dodgers, Phillies and Yankees all have the reputation, right now, of spending what it takes to get the player they want. The last time the Red Sox did that was in 2015 when they signed Price. I don't think the Red Sox have that reputation anymore, and thus don't think an agent 'gets' anything extra by having them involved.And is that not enough for agents to use the Sox as leverage?
Yoshida last year?It's the difference between normal leverage and something extra based on a reputation of spending. Boston, like any team with a need and money to spend, can be used as leverage. But the leverage an agent can invoke by implying the Red Sox are interested in their client is less (possibly significantly so) than the implication that the Dodgers or the Mets are interested. The Mets, Dodgers, Phillies and Yankees all have the reputation, right now, of spending what it takes to get the player they want. The last time the Red Sox did that was in 2015 when they signed Price. I don't think the Red Sox have that reputation anymore, and thus don't think an agent 'gets' anything extra by having them involved.
That's a 8-year-in-making mirage. Career 3.20 ERA and 3.44 FIP. Pretty big sample to be fool's gold.Snell's ERA is definitely a mirage, he doesn't have good control, and he wasn't high on my list for the offseason.
Having said that, other teams know this as well and there are fewer dumb teams than there used to be. These things are probably baked into his price.
At age 31 on a short-ish term contract, I would still be happy with him (again, if the price is right). He threw 180 innings last year and has consistent 95 mph+ avg fastball velo for awhile. There's more than 1 way to succeed as a pitcher and he's been good.
I think he's as good of a bet to be a 3-4 WAR starting pitcher next yaar as we are going to find, so I hope the FO is sniffing around if the price comes down.
Yeah I don’t get the Snell hate. He’s older, 31, so wouldn’t want a lengthy contract but he’d be a large upgrade over anything else the Sox have.That's a 8-year-in-making mirage. Career 3.20 ERA and 3.44 FIP. Pretty big sample to be fool's gold.
No doubt, but no one can deny there's a worrying trend in the BB numbers. Not since 2016 has he posted a BB/9 over 5. In the last three years he's been at 4.8, 3.6, and 5.0. before that it was mid 3's for three years.That's a 8-year-in-making mirage. Career 3.20 ERA and 3.44 FIP. Pretty big sample to be fool's gold.
Sorry if I wasn't clear, I meant the 2023 2.25 ERA (3.44 FIP).That's a 8-year-in-making mirage. Career 3.20 ERA and 3.44 FIP. Pretty big sample to be fool's gold.
All fair points, but every team isn't in on every player at every point of every FA or trade season. I think it's also fair to say that the Sox seem to be in a very different place this off season than they have been in the past few. As for reputations... are those forever set in stone?It's the difference between normal leverage and something extra based on a reputation of spending. Boston, like any team with a need and money to spend, can be used as leverage. But the leverage an agent can invoke by implying the Red Sox are interested in their client is less (possibly significantly so) than the implication that the Dodgers or the Mets are interested. The Mets, Dodgers, Phillies and Yankees all have the reputation, right now, of spending what it takes to get the player they want. The last time the Red Sox did that was in 2015 when they signed Price. I don't think the Red Sox have that reputation anymore, and thus don't think an agent 'gets' anything extra by having them involved.
Even in Grissom's breakout year in 2022, I think Keith Law had him towards the back end of his midseason list. And don't get me wrong, I like Grissom, but I don't think the industry considered him as the same level of prospect as Rafaela.This is more of a function of Grissom getting rushed to Atlanta at the age of 21 with 98 AA at bats. He didn’t even have a chance to make top 100 boards before he lost eligibilit.
If you feel Ceddanne can be the center piece of pitching I think you are setting yourself up for massive disappointment.
Sure we do. There were plenty of reports of people declining to even interview for the job. We don't know why that is or who a top choice for ownership might've been, but top baseball minds were wary of a move to Boston.You don’t even know that
I think a big part of the problem is that Snell has only rarely pitched a full season (3 out of 8 seasons with 25+ starts), so he's only put up an average of 2.8 WAR per season (prorating 2020, he's pretty similar by both flavors of WAR).Sorry if I wasn't clear, I meant the 2023 2.25 ERA (3.44 FIP).
He is a good pitcher with good stuff, he just walks a lot of guys and got kind of lucky last season.
I'm 100% on board with him as the Red Sox opening day starter, as long as the price is reasonable.
Good question.I get that you are saying that you're anticipating that all of this will be factored into his market, so with that in mind I'm curious what you think a reasonable and realistic deal for him would look like.
I think that Snell would be a very high variance signing, but I agree with you that if the market correctly values him that the variance wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing. That said, I'm not at all confident that the market will adequately correct.
If Snell is going to get 200M I agree we should be way out on that.The problem with giving Snell $200M is what happens when he inevitably loses his stuff?
It's hard to tell if there are even leaves to read when everyone's just circling in the Boras holding pattern.If Snell is going to get 200M I agree we should be way out on that.
Maybe I'm incorrectly reading the tea leaves, but I think all teams have similar concerns and he may not get that kind of $. I'd be pretty surprised if he beat Nola.
Is it though? There's no rule they have to open with a near-maxed out payroll, and that might not be a wise thing to do.They are currently 46 mil under the tax threshold. If they need to clear payroll to get both Hernandez and Paxton, that's a bad sign.
Cot's has 191 mil. Are they missing something?Is this right? Red Sox payroll has them at 201.01… or roughly 36 under.
I noticed those two payments listed at redsoxpayrolls. Turner's $4.15M doesn't get added to the 2023 payroll total?A big chunk of the difference seems to be nearly $5m owed to Turner and Hosmer that's not on Cot's? I trust redsoxpayrolls to provide the most detailed accounting available, but I think there's still a lot of speculation that goes into any of these.
Yes, I had the same thought; I suppose it's basic math. Given the depth they have in the pen, I think they could survive well without Jansen. If moving him means room for Hernandez, Snell/Montgomery (and presumably a 3rd cost controlled pitcher in a trade), then good heavens we can all declare it's a new era!!Looking at the payroll data you can see why moving Jansen makes sense.
Minus Jansen they are at 175.
Then you add Hernandez at 17 and say Montgomery at 25 so you are at about 217.
This also suggests the second pitcher is coming via trade.
Rafaela is typically at the back end of most prospect lists as well... I think MLB has him in their top 100 and Baseball America doesn't.Even in Grissom's breakout year in 2022, I think Keith Law had him towards the back end of his midseason list. And don't get me wrong, I like Grissom, but I don't think the industry considered him as the same level of prospect as Rafaela.
I don't expect the Sox to get a good controllable arm for just Rafaela, but I think he'd have more value than Duran or Abreu, and that a controllable starter would be available for Rafaela + a Houck/Crawford type + another prospect on the same level as Yorke. I don't think it will take Anthony, Mayer, or Teel.
Teoscar is a proven, dependable RHH power hitting OF. None of the other OFs are reliable, proven power hitters, and most are LHH (O’Neill has power, but the only dependable thing about him is you can depend on him missing around 75 games).Worst case: repeating the Yoshida mistake and signing yet another mediocre/redundant OF (Teoscar) for $18M per, money that could be spent on a pitcher
Best case: giving up on the Houck as starter experiment, putting him in as closer (or 8th inning guy, with Martin as closer), and getting something decent in return for Kenley
I see a lot of people completely overlooking Martin’s usage pattern in ‘23.Worst case: repeating the Yoshida mistake and signing yet another mediocre/redundant OF (Teoscar) for $18M per, money that could be spent on a pitcher
Best case: giving up on the Houck as starter experiment, putting him in as closer (or 8th inning guy, with Martin as closer), and getting something decent in return for Kenley
This is barely a "rumor" but here is a round up of the market for Dylan Cease from a Chicago writer:
https://ontapsportsnet.com/white-sox/dylan-cease-trade-partners-for-chicago-white-sox-orioles-cubs-rangers-dbacks-yankees-red-sox
I wonder if Mayer, Duran and some lesser pitching prospects gets it done? I'd hate to trade Mayer but for a guy a year removed from a CYA season is where you consider it. Now that Grissom is the top prospect for 2b, with others lined up behind him (Yorke, etc), trading Mayer would only be bad if he turns into a 5-win type player, which is hardly assured, and only means you need a 5-win player in return. O'Neill and maybe Anthony (before long) makes Duran easier to trade, much as I love watching him, and if you solve the rotation issues without a dump truck full of money, signing Teoscar goes down easy.
Cease checks all the boxes for this org: he can be gotten via trade, and they would have at least a full year-plus to extend him and avoid the free agent market (albeit by paying close to top of the market in an extension). If the Sox' biggest vulnerability is out-competing 20 teams for top SPs, then the old sign-and-extend -- which is how we got Pedro, Beckett and Sale -- makes sense.
Cease stuff is in major regression.This is barely a "rumor" but here is a round up of the market for Dylan Cease from a Chicago writer:
https://ontapsportsnet.com/white-sox/dylan-cease-trade-partners-for-chicago-white-sox-orioles-cubs-rangers-dbacks-yankees-red-sox
I wonder if Mayer, Duran and some lesser pitching prospects gets it done? I'd hate to trade Mayer but for a guy a year removed from a CYA season is where you consider it. Now that Grissom is the top prospect for 2b, with others lined up behind him (Yorke, etc), trading Mayer would only be bad if he turns into a 5-win type player, which is hardly assured, and only means you need a 5-win player in return. O'Neill and maybe Anthony (before long) makes Duran easier to trade, much as I love watching him, and if you solve the rotation issues without a dump truck full of money, signing Teoscar goes down easy.
Cease checks all the boxes for this org: he can be gotten via trade, and they would have at least a full year-plus to extend him and avoid the free agent market (albeit by paying close to top of the market in an extension). If the Sox' biggest vulnerability is out-competing 20 teams for top SPs, then the old sign-and-extend -- which is how we got Pedro, Beckett and Sale -- makes sense.
Agree with all of this totally, and I think Mayer + Duran gets the Sox pretty close. Chi might prefer Rafaela with the latter having one more year of control and being two seasons away from starting arbitration, but I think either would be a decent 2nd piece.This is barely a "rumor" but here is a round up of the market for Dylan Cease from a Chicago writer:
https://ontapsportsnet.com/white-sox/dylan-cease-trade-partners-for-chicago-white-sox-orioles-cubs-rangers-dbacks-yankees-red-sox
I wonder if Mayer, Duran and some lesser pitching prospects gets it done? I'd hate to trade Mayer but for a guy a year removed from a CYA season is where you consider it. Now that Grissom is the top prospect for 2b, with others lined up behind him (Yorke, etc), trading Mayer would only be bad if he turns into a 5-win type player, which is hardly assured, and only means you need a 5-win player in return. O'Neill and maybe Anthony (before long) makes Duran easier to trade, much as I love watching him, and if you solve the rotation issues without a dump truck full of money, signing Teoscar goes down easy.
Cease checks all the boxes for this org: he can be gotten via trade, and they would have at least a full year-plus to extend him and avoid the free agent market (albeit by paying close to top of the market in an extension). If the Sox' biggest vulnerability is out-competing 20 teams for top SPs, then the old sign-and-extend -- which is how we got Pedro, Beckett and Sale -- makes sense.
It's funny cause I think Cease would be a great target if he'd missed 2022 entirely or something, I just think that one performance is going to weight the ask too much to be worth the risk.Cease stuff is in major regression.
Honestly, the more I look at what Breslow is doing, I think the target is going to be a good maybe not great pitcher with 4 years of control.
This team has 2 starters - Bello and Crawford, under control beyond 2025 coupled with very spotty starting prospects. They need controllable arms. The narrative “they only need top end arms” I think is misguided.
I don’t think it’s gonna be some star.
Conversely, that’s why I think they might consider it without a pitching prospect anywhere even close to the top 200 (which the Sox don’t have).To be clear, if
It's funny cause I think Cease would be a great target if he'd missed 2022 entirely or something, I just think that one performance is going to weight the ask too much to be worth the risk.
I don’t see a whole bunch of empathy / understanding for players going thru personal off the field stuff.The Suzuki comparison is interesting. His first year he only played 111 games at a 116 wrc+, then improved that to 138 and 126 this year.
Yoshida's first 111 games (of 140) this year (through 8/22) he had a 117 wrc+ and that was already nearly a month into his decline period. At the end of July his wrc+ was 128.
Between adjustments to American baseball, better conditioning in preparation for the full season and not starting a month early for the WBC, I see no reason not to project improvement for year 2.
Cease only having 2 years of control hurts.Conversely, that’s why I think they might consider it without a pitching prospect anywhere even close to the top 200 (which the Sox don’t have).
To acquire a young, controllable SP you generally need pitching prospects to go back (Beckett, Pomeranz, Sale) and the Sox are woefully short in that area.
Cease warts (and they exist) are why I think he’s worth talking about (same with Luzardo).
I think Yoshida being a full time DH will keep up the first half numbers, making his contract fully worth it.Similar to what? First half Yoshida gets that contract.
The guy the Giants signed plays better defensively but can’t hit like Yoshida… he got a big bag.
If you're trading from the upper tier of prospects I would hope to get a pitcher with more than 2 years of control. Three would be the minimum I'd like to see when you consider the remainder of Mayer,Teel and Anthony aren't likely to be impact players at the major league level until '25.This is barely a "rumor" but here is a round up of the market for Dylan Cease from a Chicago writer:
https://ontapsportsnet.com/white-sox/dylan-cease-trade-partners-for-chicago-white-sox-orioles-cubs-rangers-dbacks-yankees-red-sox
I wonder if Mayer, Duran and some lesser pitching prospects gets it done? I'd hate to trade Mayer but for a guy a year removed from a CYA season is where you consider it. Now that Grissom is the top prospect for 2b, with others lined up behind him (Yorke, etc), trading Mayer would only be bad if he turns into a 5-win type player, which is hardly assured, and only means you need a 5-win player in return. O'Neill and maybe Anthony (before long) makes Duran easier to trade, much as I love watching him, and if you solve the rotation issues without a dump truck full of money, signing Teoscar goes down easy.
Cease checks all the boxes for this org: he can be gotten via trade, and they would have at least a full year-plus to extend him and avoid the free agent market (albeit by paying close to top of the market in an extension). If the Sox' biggest vulnerability is out-competing 20 teams for top SPs, then the old sign-and-extend -- which is how we got Pedro, Beckett and Sale -- makes sense.
That’s not realistic if you’re trying to deal position players for SPs. Other teams aren’t going to assume Mayer is a can’t miss prospect right now. The other two maybe but I hope they don’t move either of them. Anyway Cease is only available because his clock is winding down. A year ago he wasn’t available at all.If you're trading from the upper tier of prospects I would hope to get a pitcher with more than 2 years of control. Three would be the minimum I'd like to see when you consider the remainder of Mayer,Teel and Anthony aren't likely to be impact players at the major league level until '25.