Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)

Cellar-Door

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How did they tear it down to the studs outside of trading McCaffrey and DJ? Isn’t most of their issues just the culmination of poor personnel decisions during the Rhule era?

I also don’t see many people advocating a similar strategy for the Pats.
yeah to be fair I thought they let way more guys walk. They traded Anderson, McCaffrey, DJ and a rotation tackle, let their center walk along with a few guys on D. But you're right mostly they just didn't develop their picks.
 

Cellar-Door

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Big Giants win, Pats now can win and be guaranteed at top 5 pick, TEN driving, if they won it would let the Patriots win a game and be guaranteed top 4.
 

Ed Hillel

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Amazing night.

Almost to the point we can root for Pats to cause Mahomes to have a conniption.
 

DJnVa

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Titans win!

Knocked out of survivor pool but great night for pick.
 

Cellar-Door

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So today helped a lot. Going forward here are the biggest individual impact games for the Patriots:
1. All of our own games obviously. Lose out and finish no lower than 3rd.
2. WAS vs. Jets. Not only do we really want WAS to win for safety, if it comes against the Jets even better as it has a big SOS impact (a win for a team we played, but a loss for a team we play twice)
3. TEN against MIA on Monday night.... less likely outcome, but again clears a 4 win team and has a double SOS impact.
4. Giants v. New Orleans... any Giants win is good, but the two PHI games are worse than NO or GB as it helps WAS a lot in SOS.
5. Any ARI game, but likely particularly CHI.
2 of these have now happened 1 day later.
 

E5 Yaz

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Washington vs NYJ in week 16 looming large.
Washington finishes at home against the 49ers and Cowboys, and play at the Rams this week. That Jets game is likely their only chance to win one for Rivera on his way out the door.
 

wilked

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1. Car 1-12 - vs Atl (+3), vs GB (+2.5), at Jax (+9.5), vs TB (+1.5)
2. NE 3-10 - vs KC (+10), at Den (+4.5), at Buf (+8), vs NYJ(-3.5)
3. Ari 3-10 - vs SF (+14), at Chi (+3.5), at Phi (+13.5), vs Sea (+3)
4. Was 4-9 - at LAR (+7), at NYJ (+1.5), vs SF (+11), vs Dal (+7.5)


down to a 4 horse race (really 3 horse race for 2-4). As last night shows, anything can happen.

I do think there’s a real scenario where that final week of the season the Cowboys have little to nothing to play for. If the Eagles are a game up on them and also hold the tiebreaker (they split season series), they could be locked into WC1 and open the door for a backup game / Was win.
 

BaseballJones

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Definitely a good day for the Pats last night with the Titans and Giants winning.

Question: If Zappe plays the rest of the way like he did on Thursday, will that be sufficient (if NE has a top-2 pick) for the Pats to NOT draft a QB? Could they actually possibly go with Zappe next year? (I am hoping not but this is why I'm asking)
 

NomarsFool

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A lot will change as folks really start to dig into evaluating the prospects, but I think IF Zappe shows the ability to be a mediocre QB and they aren’t that thrilled with Maye, I could see the Pats trading out of #2 to someone who likes him there.
 

BigJimEd

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lot will change as folks really start to dig into evaluating the prospects, but I think IF Zappe shows the ability to be a mediocre QB and they aren’t that thrilled with Maye, I could see the Pats trading out of #2 to someone who likes him there.
I don't think Zappe will have anything to do with it but otherwise agree. If they aren't enamored with QBs available, I won't be surprised if they trade down.
 

DJnVa

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I don't think Zappe will have anything to do with it but otherwise agree. If they aren't enamored with QBs available, I won't be surprised if they trade down.
Man, if they don't like their choices from the 3 or 4 available near the top this year (a few different types as well), when will they ever? They aren't Manning or Luck type guys, but still. They're mocked highly because they're good prospects not because it's a bad QB year.
 

DJnVa

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Definitely a good day for the Pats last night with the Titans and Giants winning.

Question: If Zappe plays the rest of the way like he did on Thursday, will that be sufficient (if NE has a top-2 pick) for the Pats to NOT draft a QB? Could they actually possibly go with Zappe next year? (I am hoping not but this is why I'm asking)
No way. He got hit once, and the Pats got nervous for the entire second half, and he did nothing. You can't play a whole season like that.
 

Justthetippett

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Unless they are enamored with some other QB that shakes loose (Fields, Cousins, Wilson (egad!)...pickings are very slim), or they think they can get their guy in R2 (Nix, Penix, McCarthy), I will be very disappointed if they don't take a swing at Maye, Williams or Daniels at the top of R1. Now is the time.
 

koufax32

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After the “disaster” in PIT, this weekend went about as well as you could have hoped for. One more WAS and ARI win could even make it so that we could actively cheer for NE in the last game. The only wrench between now and then is DEN.

Let’s go Commies and Fightin’ Kylers.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Definitely a good day for the Pats last night with the Titans and Giants winning.



Question: If Zappe plays the rest of the way like he did on Thursday, will that be sufficient (if NE has a top-2 pick) for the Pats to NOT draft a QB? Could they actually possibly go with Zappe next year? (I am hoping not but this is why I'm asking)
A lot will change as folks really start to dig into evaluating the prospects, but I think IF Zappe shows the ability to be a mediocre QB and they aren’t that thrilled with Maye, I could see the Pats trading out of #2 to someone who likes him there.
True. This goes double for Thornton. If they think he shows the ability to be a premier receiver in the NFL, they probably won't draft anymore offensive weapons.
 

lexrageorge

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Definitely a good day for the Pats last night with the Titans and Giants winning.

Question: If Zappe plays the rest of the way like he did on Thursday, will that be sufficient (if NE has a top-2 pick) for the Pats to NOT draft a QB? Could they actually possibly go with Zappe next year? (I am hoping not but this is why I'm asking)
They may trade down or select a non-QB just due to the number of holes in the roster on offense. I'll disagree with the move, as I think a Top 2 pick gives them a chance at an excellent QB. But I would not be shocked if they took a QB later in the draft as a result of a trade down either.

I don't believe Zappe's performance the rest of the season will influence their thinking very much. Pittsburgh had some injuries on defense, and was working with very little game tape on the 2023 version of Zappe. Yes, he played well, but hard to much stock into the outing. Even if he plays well the rest of the season, it still seems prudent to pick a potential franchise QB if one becomes available.

No way. He got hit once, and the Pats got nervous for the entire second half, and he did nothing. You can't play a whole season like that.
Well, in the first series of the 2nd half, Zappe did come out throwing, but then a penalty and sack resulted in the Pats going conservative on 3rd-and-long. Then Bailey threw a pick in the next series. Then a bad pass in a later series and his passing day was shut down. Doubtful the hit had anything to do with the 2nd half play calling.
 

BaseballJones

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For the record, my "what if" scenario has an extremely low probability, because Zappe just isn't very good.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Just want to double check...

The offense had 69 yards of total offense in the second half, had 5 punts and an INT, and were wondering if BB is comfortable keeping Zappe as starter for next season? The Zappe that BB thinks can't beat out Jones in practice?

Wow. Mac has really ruined people's brains here.
 

DJnVa

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Once again for those in the back: BAILEY ZAPPE WILL NOT BE THE REASON THE PATRIOTS DON'T DRAFT A QB IF ONE IS THERE.

He's being evaluated as a potential backup, nothing more.
 

lexrageorge

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Just want to double check...

The offense had 69 yards of total offense in the second half, had 5 punts and an INT, and were wondering if BB is comfortable keeping Zappe as starter for next season? The Zappe that BB thinks can't beat out Jones in practice?

Wow. Mac has really ruined people's brains here.
Not sure anyone is wondering the bolded. I don't think anyone here actually thinks that Zappe's performance will influence Bill (or his potential successor) one way or another. Zappe's best opportunity is to try cement his position as a backup for next year's team (or some other team).
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Not sure anyone is wondering the bolded. I don't think anyone here actually thinks that Zappe's performance will influence Bill (or his potential successor) one way or another. Zappe's best opportunity is to try cement his position as a backup for next year's team (or some other team).
Did you even read the thread? There's literally two people in the last 24 hours that wondered this exact thing.
 

lexrageorge

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Did you even read the thread? There's literally two people in the last 24 hours that wondered this exact thing.
I did. You just interpreted the posts very differently, although we arrived at the same conclusion about Mac's breaking people's thought processes.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’m good with any of the top 3 QBs so just stay at 2 or 3. I’ll be good with either although prefer 2, obviously.
 

tims4wins

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Man, if they don't like their choices from the 3 or 4 available near the top this year (a few different types as well), when will they ever? They aren't Manning or Luck type guys, but still. They're mocked highly because they're good prospects not because it's a bad QB year.
Are we sure of this? I'm not convinced it's a very good QB year. I may be very wrong on that. And as we all know, sometimes the great QB years (2021) turn out horrible.
 

Justthetippett

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True. This goes double for Thornton. If they think he shows the ability to be a premier receiver in the NFL, they probably won't draft anymore offensive weapons.
He is good for one 40 yd sweep every two years. Maybe we should hire whoever's scouting WRs for Green Bay. They've put together an interesting group entirely through two drafts. And it's not like Love is helping them all that much.
 

trekfan55

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So are we sure the Bears are moving on from Fields?
But if they decide to stick with him do they trade that pick for another package?

This is assuming Carolina gets the worst record, which seems likely.
 

DJnVa

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Are we sure of this? I'm not convinced it's a very good QB year. I may be very wrong on that. And as we all know, sometimes the great QB years (2021) turn out horrible.
I haven't heard many (any?) people say Maye or Williams are only where they are because it's a bad QB year and they would typically be late first rounders. And even if great QB years turn out bad, you still gotta take a shot.
 

cshea

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So are we sure the Bears are moving on from Fields?
But if they decide to stick with him do they trade that pick for another package?

This is assuming Carolina gets the worst record, which seems likely.
I'd be stunned if Chicago kept Fields, but in the unlikely event they do decide he's their guy there's no doubt they trade #1 for a haul like last year.

My guess is he gets traded for a Darnold like package.

If anything a strong finish maybe gives Eberflus some rope. Debateable whether that's a good thing or not.
 

tims4wins

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I haven't heard many (any?) people say Maye or Williams are only where they are because it's a bad QB year and they would typically be late first rounders. And even if great QB years turn out bad, you still gotta take a shot.
Right, if anything their 2023 performance has taken a little bloom off the proverbial rose; they were both considered top 5, if not the top 1-2 picks coming into the year. Which is good. It's not a Burrow situation where they played themselves from off the radar to the #1 pick (Burrow being a favorable outcome; Wentz/Goff being less so). I guess I'm kind of worried it is more like a Winston-Mariota type of situation where both guys were hyped up for a while, but neither ended up very good. I agree that if you are picking #2 you have to take a shot. If you're picking 3 or 4, I think it is less clear.
 

Auger34

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Definitely a good day for the Pats last night with the Titans and Giants winning.

Question: If Zappe plays the rest of the way like he did on Thursday, will that be sufficient (if NE has a top-2 pick) for the Pats to NOT draft a QB? Could they actually possibly go with Zappe next year? (I am hoping not but this is why I'm asking)
Good lord no
 

Auger34

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Are we sure of this? I'm not convinced it's a very good QB year. I may be very wrong on that. And as we all know, sometimes the great QB years (2021) turn out horrible.
The draft community has been consistently saying this is a really good QB year. I think that you are very wrong on this (at least with the information that we have currently, who knows how it actually turns out)
 

RorschachsMask

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Daniels. He’s really grown on me after watching more of his games. I might actually prefer him to Maye at this point.
Daniels is my guy, over any of them.

His improvement over his career has been insane, and his upside is the perfect modern day QB, imo.
 

tims4wins

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The draft community has been consistently saying this is a really good QB year. I think that you are very wrong on this (at least with the information that we have currently, who knows how it actually turns out)
Yeah see my more recent post. Williams and Maye are pretty clearly very well regarded. It is my own, likely misguided, fear that this is Winston-Mariota 2.0.
 

BigSoxFan

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Daniels is my guy, over any of them.

His improvement over his career has been insane, and his upside is the perfect modern day QB, imo.
Agreed. Good athlete but more than just a runner. Just feels like a super hard worker who’s on a great trajectory. Maye still feels to me like the toolsy guy who never puts it all together. And I’ve soured quite a bit on Caleb.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Agreed. Good athlete but more than just a runner. Just feels like a super hard worker who’s on a great trajectory. Maye still feels to me like the toolsy guy who never puts it all together. And I’ve soured quite a bit on Caleb.
Also in on Daniels. Not sure what this has to do with the Offensive Guard pool that BB is looking at with his first rounder though. ;)
 

tims4wins

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Agreed. Good athlete but more than just a runner. Just feels like a super hard worker who’s on a great trajectory. Maye still feels to me like the toolsy guy who never puts it all together. And I’ve soured quite a bit on Caleb.
Do you think some of this is the “extra year effect”? In other words, if Daniels played another year, would we nitpick him and find more flaws due to the heightened expectations? I’m struggling with how this is impacting my opinion of Williams and Maye.
 

Cellar-Door

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Do you think some of this is the “extra year effect”? In other words, if Daniels played another year, would we nitpick him and find more flaws due to the heightened expectations? I’m struggling with how this is impacting my opinion of Williams and Maye.
Also worth noting Daniels played 5 years and it was his 5th that he broke out in... Williams played 3, all of them much better than Daniels' 2nd best year, Maye 3.

The more I start digging... I want Williams really badly. Unfortunately I assume he goes #1, but I think he's the best on tape, and he's been surprisingly consistent. I worry about his clock and whether he can play in structure, but I think he's got the best upside and his arm is amazing. He makes throws that are great.
 

BaseballJones

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ESPN's new mock draft is out.

2. New England Patriots (3-10)
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

Much like Chicago, the Patriots need to start over at quarterback, especially since the entire organization could reset this offseason. Mac Jones' fifth-year option decision is also coming this offseason, and after he was benched for Bailey Zappe, all signs point toward a new QB1 in New England for 2024.

Maye is a powerful thrower at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, with the arm talent to stretch the field vertically and the mobility to threaten on the ground. There are times his ball placement can be inconsistent, but his supporting cast at North Carolina did him few favors there. Maye -- who is declaring for the draft -- has the traits of a true franchise quarterback.


This has me giddy.
 

Justthetippett

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Do you think some of this is the “extra year effect”? In other words, if Daniels played another year, would we nitpick him and find more flaws due to the heightened expectations? I’m struggling with how this is impacting my opinion of Williams and Maye.
Probably. None of these guys are perfect, and more data generally provides more opportunities to find flaws. Each of Maye, Williams and Daniels is also quite different from a style/strengths/weaknesses point of view, so a lot will come down to scheme and personal preference too. It's going to be a fascinating process.
 

Ralphwiggum

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I am not a draft guy so I don't really have an informed opinion on the QBs likely to be drafted high, but if they end up with a Top 2 pick and don't pick one of them whoever is in charge should be fired into the sun. Yes there's always a chance that guys bust, but if the consensus is that Williams/Maye are 1/2 and you end up at 2, given the Pats current situation at QB you have to fire your shot there.