I'm going to use this list as the top 20 QB in the Super Bowl era (only counting guys that have retired or have recently moved on to other teams (like Rodgers), so Mahomes, who would definitely be on this list, doesn't count for this exercise.
1. Tom Brady, NE
2. Joe Montana, SF/KC
3. Peyton Manning, Ind/Den
4. John Elway, Den
5. Dan Marino, Mia
6. Aaron Rodgers, GB
7. Brett Favre, GB
8. Drew Brees, SD/NO
9. Johnny Unitas, Bal (Colts)
10. Steve Young, SF
11. Fran Tarkenton, Min
12. Roger Staubach, Dal
13. Troy Aikman, Dal
14. Terry Bradshaw, Pit
15. Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
16. Bart Starr, GB
17. Warren Moon, Hou (Oilers)
18. Kurt Warner, StL/Ari
19. Jim Kelly, Buf
20. Dan Fouts, SD (LAC)
We can quibble with the list as a whole, and certainly with the order of guys and where they rank. That's not even really the issue. This exercise is all about how difficult it is to replace an all-time great QB. I'm going to go through the list and see what each team did to replace their HOF caliber QB. I'll work my way from 20 to 1. To make this job easier I'm just going to use pro-football-reference's "top passer" list for each team each year.
20. Dan Fouts, SD (LAC)
- Mark Malone (1)
- Jim McMahon (1)
- Billy Joe Tolliver (1)
- Joe Friesz (1)
- Stan Humphries (6)
- Craig Whelihan (1)
- Jim Harbaugh (1)
- Ryan Leaf (1)
- Doug Flutie (1)
- Drew Brees (4)
- Philip Rivers (14)
- Justin Herbert (4)
- VERDICT: They wandered the QB wilderness from 1988-2006 (19 seasons) before getting their next great QB (Rivers), and as great as Rivers was, they didn't win anything with him. They only got to ONE conference championship in Rivers' 14 seasons, and of course with Herbert, have only been to the playoffs once too. I shouldn't forget that they had Brees, but had only one good season with him before moving on.
19. Jim Kelly, Buf
- Todd Collins (1)
- Doug Flutie (1)
- Rob Johnson (1)
- Alex Van Pelt (1)
- Drew Bledsoe (3)
- Kelly Holcomb (1)
- JP Losman (1)
- Trent Edwards (2)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (4)
- EJ Manuel (1)
- Kyle Orton (1)
- Tyrod Taylor (3)
- Josh Allen (6)
- VERDICT: Bledsoe was fine for them, but they only got him via a trade with NE, which itself only happened because Tom Brady arrived on the scene. They were in the QB wilderness from 1997-2018 (20 seasons) minus the three years of Bledsoe and maybe the two years of Flutie (he was fine with them, making one Pro Bowl and leading Buffalo to the playoffs twice).
18. Kurt Warner, StL
- Marc Bulger (8)
- Sam Bradford (4)
- Austin Davis (1)
- Nick Foles (1)
- Case Keenum (1)
- Jared Goff (4)
- Matthew Stafford (3)
- VERDICT: Bulger was solid during his time with the Rams. They made the playoffs twice. Goff was pretty good one year and made the Super Bowl. And Stafford obviously got them a Lombardi. Pretty good job by the Rams staying relevant at the QB position once Warner was gone.
Kurt Warner, Ari
- Derek Anderson (1)
- Kevin Kolb (2)
- Carson Palmer (1)
- Drew Stanton (1)
- Carson Palmer (3)
- Josh Rosen (1)
- Kyler Murray (4)
- Josh Dobbs (1) though it will be someone else by season's end
- VERDICT: They were good during some of Palmer's seasons, making it to a conference championship in the 2015 season. So not too bad. But still, there's a lot of riff raff in that mix.
17. Warren Moon, Hou
- Billy Joe Tolliver (1)
- Chris Chandler (2)
- Steve McNair (7)
- Billy Volek (1)
- Steve McNair (1)
- Vince Young (2)
- Kerry Collins (1)
- Vince Young (1)
- Kerry Collins (1)
- Matt Hasselbeck (1)
- Jake Locker (1)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (1)
- Zach Mettenberger (1)
- Marcus Mariota (4)
- Ryan Tannehill (5)
- VERDICT: McNair was league MVP and they were terrific during his time, so it only took them a few years to make a nice transition. Since McNair, it's been a lot of meh though the team had some good years with Tannehill. But it's not like he's any sort of legend. Overall, not bad though.
16. Bart Starr, GB
- Scott Hunter (2)
- Jerry Tagge (1)
- John Hadl (2)
- Lynn Dickey (2)
- David Whitehurst (2)
- Lynn Dickey (6)
- Randy Wright (2)
- Mike Tomczak (1)
- Don Majkowski (3)
- Mike Tomczak (1)
- Brett Favre (16)
- Aaron Rodgers (9)
- Brett Hundley (1)
- Aaron Rodgers (5)
- Jordan Love (1)
- VERDICT: They were in the QB wilderness for a long time (22 seasons) until they found Favre. Then obviously after a great run with him, they followed it up with Rodgers, who is an all-time great. Now they have Love and are starting it all over.
15. Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
- Kenny Pickett (2)
- VERDICT: Too early to tell, but Pickett isn't looking like anything great. Better W-L than Mac but a much worse passer rating (78.5).
14. Terry Bradshaw, Pit
- Cliff Stoudt (1)
- Mark Malone (4)
- Bubby Brister (3)
- Neil O'Donnell (5)
- Mike Tomczak (1)
- Kordell Stewart (2)
- Tommy Maddox (2)
- Ben Roethlisberger (15)
- Kenny Pickett (2)
- VERDICT: Malone, Brister, and O'Donnell were not very good but not godawful either. They had a great team with Kordell Stewart but we all know he wasn't a great QB. It took them 18 years to land their next great QB (Ben).
13. Troy Aikman, Dal
- Quincy Carter (1)
- Chad Hutchinson (1)
- Quincy Carter (1)
- Vinny Testaverde (1)
- Drew Bledsoe (1)
- Tony Romo (4)
- Jon Kitna (1)
- Tony Romo (4)
- Matt Cassel (1)
- Dak Prescott (4)
- Andy Dalton (1)
- Dak Prescott (3)
- VERDICT: Romo was a terrific QB, but of course they never won a conference championship with him. Prescott has been a good QB for them too, but same story.
12. Roger Staubach, Dal
- Danny White (4)
- Gary Hogeboom (1)
- Danny White (1)
- Steve Pilleur (1)
- Danny White (1)
- Steve Pilleur (1)
- Troy Aikman (12)
- Quincy Carter (1)
- Chad Hutchinson (1)
- Quincy Carter (1)
- Vinny Testaverde (1)
- Drew Bledsoe (1)
- Tony Romo (4)
- Jon Kitna (1)
- Tony Romo (4)
- Matt Cassel (1)
- Dak Prescott (4)
- Andy Dalton (1)
- Dak Prescott (3)
- VERDICT: White was pretty good and they went to 3 straight NFCCG with him at the helm. Obviously Aikman is a HOFer. Overall, not a bad job finding a good replacement for Staubach.
11. Fran Tarkenton, Min
- Tommy Kramer (4)
- Steve Dils (1)
- Tommy Kramer (3)
- Wade Wilson (3)
- Rich Gannon (3)
- Jim McMahon (1)
- Warren Moon (2)
- Brad Johnson (2)
- Randall Cunningham (1)
- Jeff George (1)
- Daunte Culpepper (5)
- Brad Johnson (2)
- Tarvaris Jackson (1)
- Gus Frerotte (1)
- Brett Favre (2)
- Christian Ponder (2)
- Matt Cassel (1)
- Teddy Bridgewater (2)
- Sam Bradford (1)
- Case Keenum (1)
- Kirk Cousins (6)
- VERDICT: They had some pretty good years in the post-Tarkenton era. 15-1 with Cunningham (but that was a one-year wonder). Culpepper was pretty good. But on the whole, they moved on and on and on from their QBs because they couldn't find and settle on a great one.
10. Steve Young, SF
- Jeff Garcia (5)
- Tim Rattay (1)
- Alex Smith (2)
- Trent Dilfer (1)
- Shaun Hill (1)
- Alex Smith (3)
- Colin Kaepernick (3)
- Blaine Gabbert (1)
- Colin Kaepernick (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (1)
- Nick Mullens (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (1)
- Nick Mullens (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (2)
- Brock Purdy (2)
- VERDICT: Garcia was pretty solid, and they had good years under Kaepernick, reaching a Super Bowl. Some decent QB play in the mix here, but obviously it's not like they found their next superstar either. Who knows if Purdy will get there.
9. Johnny Unitas, Bal (Colts)
- Morrall (1)
- Marty Domras (2)
- Bert Jones (4)
- Bill Troup (1)
- Greg Landry (1)
- Bert Jones (2)
- Mike Pagel (4)
- Jack Trudeau (2)
- Chris Chandler (1)
- Jack Trudeau (1)
- Jeff George (4)
- Jim Harbaugh (4)
- Peyton Manning (13)
- Curtis Painter (1)
- Andrew Luck (5)
- Jacoby Brissett (1)
- Andrew Luck (1)
- Jacoby Brissett (1)
- Philip Rivers (1)
- Carson Wentz (1)
- Matt Ryan (1)
- Gardner Minshew (1)
- VERDICT: Bert Jones was a solid NFL QB so that was fine. Then came a long list of crap before they finally landed another star in Peyton Manning. Luck followed shortly thereafter. On the whole, good job with Jones, but then a lot of bad QB play led to them being able to draft Peyton with the #1 pick.
8. Drew Brees, SD
- Rivers (14)
- Herbert (4)
- VERDICT: Obviously Rivers is a close Hall of Famer (he may get in) so that was pretty nice for them to get him right away, followed up by Herbert. They've done great. They got Rivers due to the Eli Manning trade, which Eli forced on them. They did have a high draft pick though.
Drew Brees, NO
- Jameis Winston (1)
- Andy Dalton (1)
- Derek Carr (1)
- VERDICT: So far....bleh.
7. Brett Favre, GB
- Aaron Rodgers (9)
- Brett Hundley (1)
- Aaron Rodgers (5)
- Jordan Love (1)
- VERDICT: Obviously going from Favre to Rodgers is about as good as it gets.
6. Aaron Rodgers, GB
- Jordan Love (1)
- VERDICT: Can't say at this point. Love doesn't look great but who knows.
5. Dan Marino, Mia
- Jay Fiedler (4)
- AJ Feeley (1)
- Gus Frerotte (1)
- Joey Harrington (1)
- Cleo Lemon (1)
- Chad Pennington (1)
- Chad Henne (1)
- Matt Moore (1)
- Ryan Tannehill (5)
- Jay Cutler (1)
- Ryan Tannehill (1)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (2)
- Tua Tagovailoa (3)
- VERDICT: Maybe they've got their guy in Tua, but there was lots of unadulterated garbage for about 19 years before Tua arrived.
4. John Elway, Den
- Brian Griese (4)
- Jake Plummer (4)
- Jay Cutler (2)
- Kyle Orton (2)
- Tim Tebow (1)
- Peyton Manning (4)
- Trevor Siemian (2)
- Case Keenum (1)
- Joe Flacco (1)
- Drew Lock (1)
- Teddy Bridgewater (1)
- Russell Wilson (2)
- VERDICT: Plummer was solid for them, but then it was a pile of godawfulness before landing Peyton manning. Since then it's also been terrible for them.
3. Peyton Manning, Ind
- Curtis Painter (1)
- Andrew Luck (5)
- Jacoby Brissett (1)
- Andrew Luck (1)
- Jacoby Brissett (1)
- Philip Rivers (1)
- Carson Wentz (1)
- Matt Ryan (1)
- Gardner Minshew (1)
- VERDICT: Got Luck which was fantastic, but they got him because they had the #1 pick in the draft due to Peyton being injured and missing an entire season. So they "lucked" into that #1 draft pick. Since Luck though...yuck. Maybe Richardson is the next great QB for them though. We shall see.
Peyton Manning, Den
- Trevor Siemian (2)
- Case Keenum (1)
- Joe Flacco (1)
- Drew Lock (1)
- Teddy Bridgewater (1)
- Russell Wilson (2)
- VERDICT: 8 years in the QB wilderness. You'd think that Wilson wouldn't be that, but so far, pretty much.
2. Joe Montana, SF
- Steve Young (8)
- Jeff Garcia (5)
- Tim Rattay (1)
- Alex Smith (2)
- Trent Dilfer (1)
- Shaun Hill (1)
- Alex Smith (3)
- Colin Kaepernick (3)
- Blaine Gabbert (1)
- Colin Kaepernick (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (1)
- Nick Mullens (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (1)
- Nick Mullens (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (2)
- Brock Purdy (2)
- VERDICT: Obviously a total home run with Young following Montana, and as I said earlier, they've done a pretty solid job overall. Still, lots of turnover trying to find the next great QB.
Joe Montana, KC
- Steve Bono (2)
- Elvis Grbac (2)
- Trent Green (5)
- Damon Huard (2)
- Tyler Thigpen (1)
- Matt Cassel (4)
- Alex Smith (5)
- Patrick Mahomes (6)
- VERDICT: They've had some decent QB after Montana, and obviously have found their next megastar in Mahomes. But it was 21 years between Montana and Mahomes.
1. Tom Brady, NE
- Cam Newton (1)
- Mac Jones (3)
- VERDICT: 0-2. Time for the next guy.
So of these 20 guys representing 24 situations, the vast majority of teams have had a very hard time finding their next GUY. GB (Favre-->Rodgers) and SF (Montana-->Young) are obviously the gold standard. In both cases, they drafted their next guy (Rodgers/Young) while their star was still...a star.
Young was taken 1st in the 1984 NFL Supplemental draft out of the USFL, while Montana was just 28 and already had been top 5 in the MVP voting twice. The 49ers could afford to have Young just sit and spell Montana when Joe was hurt but also wait for a long time to get his shot. This was also pre- salary cap.
Rodgers was taken 24th overall in the 2005 NFL draft and Favre still had 3 more years as GB's starter to go, including a near-MVP season in 2008 (he finished 2nd). So like Young, Rodgers had to wait a while for his turn. Hard in today's NFL to spend a 1st round pick on a QB and have him sit for 3 seasons as an understudy.
Indy did well with Andrew Luck following Peyton Manning, but again, they had to get "lucky" and get the 1st overall pick ("suck for Luck") after Peyton got hurt and missed the season. Much easier to find your next guy when you get the #1 pick in the draft. The Chargers have done pretty well following Brees with Rivers and then Herbert, but of course, they haven't actually won anything either.
Otherwise, most teams really struggled to find their next guy.
So here's the moral of the story, and it's a depressing one: the Patriots are moving on from the GOAT. It may take a long time before they find their next star QB, and in the meanwhile, the on-field product might be a lot like the last couple of seasons - pretty bad.
1. Tom Brady, NE
2. Joe Montana, SF/KC
3. Peyton Manning, Ind/Den
4. John Elway, Den
5. Dan Marino, Mia
6. Aaron Rodgers, GB
7. Brett Favre, GB
8. Drew Brees, SD/NO
9. Johnny Unitas, Bal (Colts)
10. Steve Young, SF
11. Fran Tarkenton, Min
12. Roger Staubach, Dal
13. Troy Aikman, Dal
14. Terry Bradshaw, Pit
15. Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
16. Bart Starr, GB
17. Warren Moon, Hou (Oilers)
18. Kurt Warner, StL/Ari
19. Jim Kelly, Buf
20. Dan Fouts, SD (LAC)
We can quibble with the list as a whole, and certainly with the order of guys and where they rank. That's not even really the issue. This exercise is all about how difficult it is to replace an all-time great QB. I'm going to go through the list and see what each team did to replace their HOF caliber QB. I'll work my way from 20 to 1. To make this job easier I'm just going to use pro-football-reference's "top passer" list for each team each year.
20. Dan Fouts, SD (LAC)
- Mark Malone (1)
- Jim McMahon (1)
- Billy Joe Tolliver (1)
- Joe Friesz (1)
- Stan Humphries (6)
- Craig Whelihan (1)
- Jim Harbaugh (1)
- Ryan Leaf (1)
- Doug Flutie (1)
- Drew Brees (4)
- Philip Rivers (14)
- Justin Herbert (4)
- VERDICT: They wandered the QB wilderness from 1988-2006 (19 seasons) before getting their next great QB (Rivers), and as great as Rivers was, they didn't win anything with him. They only got to ONE conference championship in Rivers' 14 seasons, and of course with Herbert, have only been to the playoffs once too. I shouldn't forget that they had Brees, but had only one good season with him before moving on.
19. Jim Kelly, Buf
- Todd Collins (1)
- Doug Flutie (1)
- Rob Johnson (1)
- Alex Van Pelt (1)
- Drew Bledsoe (3)
- Kelly Holcomb (1)
- JP Losman (1)
- Trent Edwards (2)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (4)
- EJ Manuel (1)
- Kyle Orton (1)
- Tyrod Taylor (3)
- Josh Allen (6)
- VERDICT: Bledsoe was fine for them, but they only got him via a trade with NE, which itself only happened because Tom Brady arrived on the scene. They were in the QB wilderness from 1997-2018 (20 seasons) minus the three years of Bledsoe and maybe the two years of Flutie (he was fine with them, making one Pro Bowl and leading Buffalo to the playoffs twice).
18. Kurt Warner, StL
- Marc Bulger (8)
- Sam Bradford (4)
- Austin Davis (1)
- Nick Foles (1)
- Case Keenum (1)
- Jared Goff (4)
- Matthew Stafford (3)
- VERDICT: Bulger was solid during his time with the Rams. They made the playoffs twice. Goff was pretty good one year and made the Super Bowl. And Stafford obviously got them a Lombardi. Pretty good job by the Rams staying relevant at the QB position once Warner was gone.
Kurt Warner, Ari
- Derek Anderson (1)
- Kevin Kolb (2)
- Carson Palmer (1)
- Drew Stanton (1)
- Carson Palmer (3)
- Josh Rosen (1)
- Kyler Murray (4)
- Josh Dobbs (1) though it will be someone else by season's end
- VERDICT: They were good during some of Palmer's seasons, making it to a conference championship in the 2015 season. So not too bad. But still, there's a lot of riff raff in that mix.
17. Warren Moon, Hou
- Billy Joe Tolliver (1)
- Chris Chandler (2)
- Steve McNair (7)
- Billy Volek (1)
- Steve McNair (1)
- Vince Young (2)
- Kerry Collins (1)
- Vince Young (1)
- Kerry Collins (1)
- Matt Hasselbeck (1)
- Jake Locker (1)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (1)
- Zach Mettenberger (1)
- Marcus Mariota (4)
- Ryan Tannehill (5)
- VERDICT: McNair was league MVP and they were terrific during his time, so it only took them a few years to make a nice transition. Since McNair, it's been a lot of meh though the team had some good years with Tannehill. But it's not like he's any sort of legend. Overall, not bad though.
16. Bart Starr, GB
- Scott Hunter (2)
- Jerry Tagge (1)
- John Hadl (2)
- Lynn Dickey (2)
- David Whitehurst (2)
- Lynn Dickey (6)
- Randy Wright (2)
- Mike Tomczak (1)
- Don Majkowski (3)
- Mike Tomczak (1)
- Brett Favre (16)
- Aaron Rodgers (9)
- Brett Hundley (1)
- Aaron Rodgers (5)
- Jordan Love (1)
- VERDICT: They were in the QB wilderness for a long time (22 seasons) until they found Favre. Then obviously after a great run with him, they followed it up with Rodgers, who is an all-time great. Now they have Love and are starting it all over.
15. Ben Roethlisberger, Pit
- Kenny Pickett (2)
- VERDICT: Too early to tell, but Pickett isn't looking like anything great. Better W-L than Mac but a much worse passer rating (78.5).
14. Terry Bradshaw, Pit
- Cliff Stoudt (1)
- Mark Malone (4)
- Bubby Brister (3)
- Neil O'Donnell (5)
- Mike Tomczak (1)
- Kordell Stewart (2)
- Tommy Maddox (2)
- Ben Roethlisberger (15)
- Kenny Pickett (2)
- VERDICT: Malone, Brister, and O'Donnell were not very good but not godawful either. They had a great team with Kordell Stewart but we all know he wasn't a great QB. It took them 18 years to land their next great QB (Ben).
13. Troy Aikman, Dal
- Quincy Carter (1)
- Chad Hutchinson (1)
- Quincy Carter (1)
- Vinny Testaverde (1)
- Drew Bledsoe (1)
- Tony Romo (4)
- Jon Kitna (1)
- Tony Romo (4)
- Matt Cassel (1)
- Dak Prescott (4)
- Andy Dalton (1)
- Dak Prescott (3)
- VERDICT: Romo was a terrific QB, but of course they never won a conference championship with him. Prescott has been a good QB for them too, but same story.
12. Roger Staubach, Dal
- Danny White (4)
- Gary Hogeboom (1)
- Danny White (1)
- Steve Pilleur (1)
- Danny White (1)
- Steve Pilleur (1)
- Troy Aikman (12)
- Quincy Carter (1)
- Chad Hutchinson (1)
- Quincy Carter (1)
- Vinny Testaverde (1)
- Drew Bledsoe (1)
- Tony Romo (4)
- Jon Kitna (1)
- Tony Romo (4)
- Matt Cassel (1)
- Dak Prescott (4)
- Andy Dalton (1)
- Dak Prescott (3)
- VERDICT: White was pretty good and they went to 3 straight NFCCG with him at the helm. Obviously Aikman is a HOFer. Overall, not a bad job finding a good replacement for Staubach.
11. Fran Tarkenton, Min
- Tommy Kramer (4)
- Steve Dils (1)
- Tommy Kramer (3)
- Wade Wilson (3)
- Rich Gannon (3)
- Jim McMahon (1)
- Warren Moon (2)
- Brad Johnson (2)
- Randall Cunningham (1)
- Jeff George (1)
- Daunte Culpepper (5)
- Brad Johnson (2)
- Tarvaris Jackson (1)
- Gus Frerotte (1)
- Brett Favre (2)
- Christian Ponder (2)
- Matt Cassel (1)
- Teddy Bridgewater (2)
- Sam Bradford (1)
- Case Keenum (1)
- Kirk Cousins (6)
- VERDICT: They had some pretty good years in the post-Tarkenton era. 15-1 with Cunningham (but that was a one-year wonder). Culpepper was pretty good. But on the whole, they moved on and on and on from their QBs because they couldn't find and settle on a great one.
10. Steve Young, SF
- Jeff Garcia (5)
- Tim Rattay (1)
- Alex Smith (2)
- Trent Dilfer (1)
- Shaun Hill (1)
- Alex Smith (3)
- Colin Kaepernick (3)
- Blaine Gabbert (1)
- Colin Kaepernick (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (1)
- Nick Mullens (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (1)
- Nick Mullens (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (2)
- Brock Purdy (2)
- VERDICT: Garcia was pretty solid, and they had good years under Kaepernick, reaching a Super Bowl. Some decent QB play in the mix here, but obviously it's not like they found their next superstar either. Who knows if Purdy will get there.
9. Johnny Unitas, Bal (Colts)
- Morrall (1)
- Marty Domras (2)
- Bert Jones (4)
- Bill Troup (1)
- Greg Landry (1)
- Bert Jones (2)
- Mike Pagel (4)
- Jack Trudeau (2)
- Chris Chandler (1)
- Jack Trudeau (1)
- Jeff George (4)
- Jim Harbaugh (4)
- Peyton Manning (13)
- Curtis Painter (1)
- Andrew Luck (5)
- Jacoby Brissett (1)
- Andrew Luck (1)
- Jacoby Brissett (1)
- Philip Rivers (1)
- Carson Wentz (1)
- Matt Ryan (1)
- Gardner Minshew (1)
- VERDICT: Bert Jones was a solid NFL QB so that was fine. Then came a long list of crap before they finally landed another star in Peyton Manning. Luck followed shortly thereafter. On the whole, good job with Jones, but then a lot of bad QB play led to them being able to draft Peyton with the #1 pick.
8. Drew Brees, SD
- Rivers (14)
- Herbert (4)
- VERDICT: Obviously Rivers is a close Hall of Famer (he may get in) so that was pretty nice for them to get him right away, followed up by Herbert. They've done great. They got Rivers due to the Eli Manning trade, which Eli forced on them. They did have a high draft pick though.
Drew Brees, NO
- Jameis Winston (1)
- Andy Dalton (1)
- Derek Carr (1)
- VERDICT: So far....bleh.
7. Brett Favre, GB
- Aaron Rodgers (9)
- Brett Hundley (1)
- Aaron Rodgers (5)
- Jordan Love (1)
- VERDICT: Obviously going from Favre to Rodgers is about as good as it gets.
6. Aaron Rodgers, GB
- Jordan Love (1)
- VERDICT: Can't say at this point. Love doesn't look great but who knows.
5. Dan Marino, Mia
- Jay Fiedler (4)
- AJ Feeley (1)
- Gus Frerotte (1)
- Joey Harrington (1)
- Cleo Lemon (1)
- Chad Pennington (1)
- Chad Henne (1)
- Matt Moore (1)
- Ryan Tannehill (5)
- Jay Cutler (1)
- Ryan Tannehill (1)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (2)
- Tua Tagovailoa (3)
- VERDICT: Maybe they've got their guy in Tua, but there was lots of unadulterated garbage for about 19 years before Tua arrived.
4. John Elway, Den
- Brian Griese (4)
- Jake Plummer (4)
- Jay Cutler (2)
- Kyle Orton (2)
- Tim Tebow (1)
- Peyton Manning (4)
- Trevor Siemian (2)
- Case Keenum (1)
- Joe Flacco (1)
- Drew Lock (1)
- Teddy Bridgewater (1)
- Russell Wilson (2)
- VERDICT: Plummer was solid for them, but then it was a pile of godawfulness before landing Peyton manning. Since then it's also been terrible for them.
3. Peyton Manning, Ind
- Curtis Painter (1)
- Andrew Luck (5)
- Jacoby Brissett (1)
- Andrew Luck (1)
- Jacoby Brissett (1)
- Philip Rivers (1)
- Carson Wentz (1)
- Matt Ryan (1)
- Gardner Minshew (1)
- VERDICT: Got Luck which was fantastic, but they got him because they had the #1 pick in the draft due to Peyton being injured and missing an entire season. So they "lucked" into that #1 draft pick. Since Luck though...yuck. Maybe Richardson is the next great QB for them though. We shall see.
Peyton Manning, Den
- Trevor Siemian (2)
- Case Keenum (1)
- Joe Flacco (1)
- Drew Lock (1)
- Teddy Bridgewater (1)
- Russell Wilson (2)
- VERDICT: 8 years in the QB wilderness. You'd think that Wilson wouldn't be that, but so far, pretty much.
2. Joe Montana, SF
- Steve Young (8)
- Jeff Garcia (5)
- Tim Rattay (1)
- Alex Smith (2)
- Trent Dilfer (1)
- Shaun Hill (1)
- Alex Smith (3)
- Colin Kaepernick (3)
- Blaine Gabbert (1)
- Colin Kaepernick (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (1)
- Nick Mullens (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (1)
- Nick Mullens (1)
- Jimmy Garoppolo (2)
- Brock Purdy (2)
- VERDICT: Obviously a total home run with Young following Montana, and as I said earlier, they've done a pretty solid job overall. Still, lots of turnover trying to find the next great QB.
Joe Montana, KC
- Steve Bono (2)
- Elvis Grbac (2)
- Trent Green (5)
- Damon Huard (2)
- Tyler Thigpen (1)
- Matt Cassel (4)
- Alex Smith (5)
- Patrick Mahomes (6)
- VERDICT: They've had some decent QB after Montana, and obviously have found their next megastar in Mahomes. But it was 21 years between Montana and Mahomes.
1. Tom Brady, NE
- Cam Newton (1)
- Mac Jones (3)
- VERDICT: 0-2. Time for the next guy.
So of these 20 guys representing 24 situations, the vast majority of teams have had a very hard time finding their next GUY. GB (Favre-->Rodgers) and SF (Montana-->Young) are obviously the gold standard. In both cases, they drafted their next guy (Rodgers/Young) while their star was still...a star.
Young was taken 1st in the 1984 NFL Supplemental draft out of the USFL, while Montana was just 28 and already had been top 5 in the MVP voting twice. The 49ers could afford to have Young just sit and spell Montana when Joe was hurt but also wait for a long time to get his shot. This was also pre- salary cap.
Rodgers was taken 24th overall in the 2005 NFL draft and Favre still had 3 more years as GB's starter to go, including a near-MVP season in 2008 (he finished 2nd). So like Young, Rodgers had to wait a while for his turn. Hard in today's NFL to spend a 1st round pick on a QB and have him sit for 3 seasons as an understudy.
Indy did well with Andrew Luck following Peyton Manning, but again, they had to get "lucky" and get the 1st overall pick ("suck for Luck") after Peyton got hurt and missed the season. Much easier to find your next guy when you get the #1 pick in the draft. The Chargers have done pretty well following Brees with Rivers and then Herbert, but of course, they haven't actually won anything either.
Otherwise, most teams really struggled to find their next guy.
So here's the moral of the story, and it's a depressing one: the Patriots are moving on from the GOAT. It may take a long time before they find their next star QB, and in the meanwhile, the on-field product might be a lot like the last couple of seasons - pretty bad.