Although the PED suspension is of course a red flag, Tatis to me represents the perfect acquisition this offseason: he addresses the Red Sox need for "star power," he addresses the need for better defense (he's an incredible right fielder and could probably win a Gold Glove in center field if given the chance), and he addresses the need for shifting the offensive core to include more right-handed hitters. Also, if you look at the structure of his contract, it's likely to age well if he can stay relatively healthy.Not sure if this is a rumor per se, but there's been increasing buzz about trying to get Tatis from the Padre$ instead of Soto. It's a much cleaner fit & he's locked up long term so I like the concept better, if he's actually available & the price isn't insane.
View: https://twitter.com/HebHammer94/status/1720108771156840828
Too many red flags in my opinion to pay the extraordinary cost. They'd (rightly so) probably want something like Mayer, Duran and Houck. For me, that is way too much for someone that a) doesn't pitch with b) his injury history and c) off the field concerns.Not sure if this is a rumor per se, but there's been increasing buzz about trying to get Tatis from the Padre$ instead of Soto. It's a much cleaner fit & he's locked up long term so I like the concept better, if he's actually available & the price isn't insane.
View: https://twitter.com/HebHammer94/status/1720108771156840828
Both?Mayer (and all his potential, at league minimum price) for Tatis (and all his current ability, with the PED red flag, and the big contract). Who says no? (Keep in mind the financial situation for both teams)
It would be pretty funny to trade them a shortstop as a way of bailing them out of debt after signing away ours and moving him off the position.Mayer (and all his potential, at league minimum price) for Tatis (and all his current ability, with the PED red flag, and the big contract). Who says no? (Keep in mind the financial situation for both teams)
One would have to assume the red flags would be properly accounted for in any deal. Haven't really done a deep dive into the person, but skillset wise & age-wise, the fit is perfect.Too many red flags in my opinion to pay the extraordinary cost. They'd (rightly so) probably want something like Mayer, Duran and Houck. For me, that is way too much for someone that a) doesn't pitch with b) his injury history and c) off the field concerns.
(To your point @BaseballJones - I think SD says "no" - if it were "just" Mayer, I'd at least consider it and could see the argument to do it, but I think I'd only move Mayer - or Anthony - for top of the rotation SP help).
Breslow talked about "fit" and in no way do I think Tatis is a good "fit" for basically any of the big East Coast markets.
Now if that were George Kirby or Julio Rodriguez - just to name a position player, I'd consider it giving up all that. Not Tatis though - ridiculously talented though he is.
He's just a guy who posts dumb fake trade ideas mostly. But I've heard the Tatis thing several places. My idea was to start a conversation about whether we want Tatis & at what level of cost.Has this Sammy James person ever proven reliable about Red Sox news in the past, or is this goin g to be another offseason where we just post anything any rando says on social media?
Quick scan of his timeline suggests he's just a rando. Wheee, offseason "rumors!"Has this Sammy James person ever proven reliable about Red Sox news in the past, or is this goin g to be another offseason where we just post anything any rando says on social media?
Rumors from connected sources should be fine. It's the "rumors" from random people with no obvious connections to the game that aren't really needed or productive. We might as well just post our own wishcasted thoughts and ideas as "rumors".He's just a guy who posts dumb fake trade ideas mostly. But I've heard the Tatis thing several places. My idea was to start a conversation about whether we want Tatis & at what level of cost.
I guess we could have a separate thread for like fake trades? But when do rumors actually ever turn out to be true before they're reports?
Is Jim Bowden posting the Red Sox on a list of 7 different landing spots that make sense any more of a rumor? I wanted to talk about whether we liked the idea of a Tatis trade, so I posted the 1st Tweet I found on the subject along with the idea. It seemed to be leading to an interesting conversation which seems to have been derailed by the definition of "rumor".Rumors from connected sources should be fine. It's the "rumors" from random people with no obvious connections to the game that aren't really needed or productive. We might as well just post our own wishcasted thoughts and ideas as "rumors".
I think if you've heard the Tatis thing in several places, maybe share a source that actually might have some substance or reason to believe it.
It would make more sense to just bring him up as an option in the 2024 outfield thread. There's no need to link to a tweet from a nobody in a thread that's tenuously related to news.Is Jim Bowden posting the Red Sox on a list of 7 different landing spots that make sense any more of a rumor? I wanted to talk about whether we liked the idea of a Tatis trade, so I posted the 1st Tweet I found on the subject along with the idea. It seemed to be leading to an interesting conversation which seems to have been derailed by the definition of "rumor".
I thought the conversation was the important part & not the labeling of where on the spectrum of rumors something is. People have been speculating Tatis & pretty much everyone on the Padres to pretty much everywhere since the news of the Padres being broke came out.
If a moderator would like to break this out into a "Fake trades" thread to keep the sanctity of the Rumors thread intact, they are more than welcome to.
Pro tip: if you know that a guy posts "dumb fake trade ideas", don't post his dumb fake trade ideas on the main board. Maybe write, "Hey, what would you trade for Fernando Tatis?" and go with that.He's just a guy who posts dumb fake trade ideas mostly. But I've heard the Tatis thing several places. My idea was to start a conversation about whether we want Tatis & at what level of cost.
I guess we could have a separate thread for like fake trades? But when do rumors actually ever turn out to be true before they're reports?
So kind of like this?Pro tip: if you know that a guy posts "dumb fake trade ideas", don't post his dumb fake trade ideas on the main board. Maybe write, "Hey, what would you trade for Fernando Tatis?" and go with that.
I apologize heartily for all the damage my posting has done to the sanctity of the main board.Not sure if this is a rumor per se, but there's been increasing buzz about trying to get Tatis from the Padre$ instead of Soto. It's a much cleaner fit & he's locked up long term so I like the concept better, if he's actually available & the price isn't insane.
Fair enough.One would have to assume the red flags would be properly accounted for in any deal. Haven't really done a deep dive into the person, but skillset wise & age-wise, the fit is perfect.
Yeah. Just like that.I apologize heartily for all the damage my posting has done to the sanctity of the main board.
Because that's literally the post I made, except I attached a Tweet where a guy asked what people's best offers for Tatis were...which should not change the subject of the post I made at all. & it's tiresome nittery in the middle of what seemed like a good conversation on the subject.Yeah. Just like that.
Not sure why the snark level was raised, but glad to see that you're able to take constructive comments.
"Do damage" is so 2018.So kind of like this?
I apologize heartily for all the damage my posting has done to the sanctity of the main board.
He did give a Moneyball-esque answer to the question about needing to have stars. To paraphrase Moneyball, if you win with nobodies, the nobodies become stars.My hope is Breslow makes moves that are based on moving the Sox forward and steers clear of “star power” deals.
Of course I would like great players but winning the offseason/back pages isn’t a great plan.
The off field concerns are why the Padres won't get a huge haul for Tatis. The 80 game suspension means that he's on his 4th chance. Maybe he's learned his lesson, but anyone acquiring him is gambling that baseball won't suspend him for a full season next time. That's a high wire not many teams are going to walk.Too many red flags in my opinion to pay the extraordinary cost. They'd (rightly so) probably want something like Mayer, Duran and Houck. For me, that is way too much for someone that a) doesn't pitch with b) his injury history and c) off the field concerns.
Because no one's giving them a top 30 MLB pitcher and two top 25 prospects for a player that deep in the PED protocol. You don't get 80 game suspensions out of the gate, you get them because you've already failed two or three drug tests (I forget whether it's the third offense or the fourth offense where the gloves come off). The PED policy is also based on progressive discipline, meaning that every suspension from here on out gets worse. So no one's giving them a Bello/Mayer/Teel type haul for FTJ. If they're moving him it's because they've decided he's not worth the trouble anymore.Tatis has some real drawbacks but he’s also not even 25 yet, is a star, and is under contract for more than a decade (for better or worse). He was a 5+ win player. The idea that the Sox will get him in return for the same spare parts people dangle in every hypothetical trade seems unrealistic. Why would the Pads even listen to anything less than Bello, Mayer, and Teel? (Granted- I think a blockbuster trade for Tatis given his PED history would be a tough sell for a new GM in Boston anyways…but…)
Tatis is a troubled asset. Absolutely worth the price to be paid in $ but it’s a risk due to future games suspended if PED use.He was like a 5-6 win player last year, but no one will give up much in a deal for him because he was suspended for PEDs before that? Not sure I understand that. Seems like we have a good idea what his post PED production looks like. Or is the idea that he’s of questionable character and likely to get popped again?
Not directed at you, but just thinking out loud. This was sort of the course that Bloom was following.My hope is Breslow makes moves that are based on moving the Sox forward and steers clear of “star power” deals.
Of course I would like great players but winning the offseason/back pages isn’t a great plan.
@PedroisGod is right here. It’s 80 games for the first offense.The off field concerns are why the Padres won't get a huge haul for Tatis. The 80 game suspension means that he's on his 4th chance. Maybe he's learned his lesson, but anyone acquiring him is gambling that baseball won't suspend him for a full season next time. That's a high wire not many teams are going to walk.
Because no one's giving them a top 30 MLB pitcher and two top 25 prospects for a player that deep in the PED protocol. You don't get 80 game suspensions out of the gate, you get them because you've already failed two or three drug tests (I forget whether it's the third offense or the fourth offense where the gloves come off). The PED policy is also based on progressive discipline, meaning that every suspension from here on out gets worse. So no one's giving them a Bello/Mayer/Teel type haul for FTJ. If they're moving him it's because they've decided he's not worth the trouble anymore.
My memory might be of the previous policy (one of the realities of being old). But that doesn’t actually change the point, it just emphasizes why no one is going to give up a top MLB player plus multiple high end prospects for Tatís. Next time he’s gone for the season. For that risk you’re going to be lucky to get a top 50 (in MLB) prospect and a lottery ticket or two.I don't think that's true. I think the first suspension for a PED violation is now 80 games. A second violation is a whole season, and a third is a lifetime ban.
Tatis has never really been a strong defender at SS (career -9 DRS, -12.4 UZR in 2000+ innings). There's a reason he was the odd man out with the Padres crowded infield. I imagine he could move back to the infield if that's where he needed to be, but with the way he handled RF this season (+29 DRS, +13.8 UZR), I see no reason to treat him as anything but an outfielder going forward.Okay, I'll bite:
I know he injured his left shoulder but I wonder if Tatis can still play SS/2B. If memory serves he was pretty good at SS and a middle infield of Tatis/Story would be tantalizing, if he still has the ability.
I don't think the Sox have anything besides Anthony who might center the deal for the Padres, though (I agree they are probably not interested in Mayer). Would I do Anthony for him???? I probably lean yes, to be honest. He's such a perfect fit offensively.
Yeah, I don’t understand the aversion to “star power” deals and feel like this ownership/Chaim did a number on some fans’ psyches. The Red Sox are a franchise with a financial advantage over most of the league. Our current best player is an .850 OPS guy who plays shitty defense. We have a bunch of potential impact cheap talent coming in the next couple of years. We just watched the Rangers’ star win World Series MVP for the 2nd time in his career.Not directed at you, but just thinking out loud. This was sort of the course that Bloom was following.
OAA, which based on my understanding is superior to the older metrics like DRS & UZR because it factors in where the player is actually aligned, had Tatis as an awful player at SS his rookie year, but above average his 2nd & 3rd year. He's only played 1 inning of 2B, though, & he's almost certainly not as good at SS defense as Story. Agree his best usage is just to be a RF going forward.Tatis has never really been a strong defender at SS (career -9 DRS, -12.4 UZR in 2000+ innings). There's a reason he was the odd man out with the Padres crowded infield. I imagine he could move back to the infield if that's where he needed to be, but with the way he handled RF this season (+29 DRS, +13.8 UZR), I see no reason to treat him as anything but an outfielder going forward.
Looking at his splits, his away numbers were absolutely putrid, which I wasn’t expecting.OAA, which based on my understanding is superior to the older metrics like DRS & UZR because it factors in where the player is actually aligned, had Tatis as an awful player at SS his rookie year, but above average his 2nd & 3rd year. He's only played 1 inning of 2B, though, & he's almost certainly not as good at SS defense as Story. Agree his best usage is just to be a RF going forward.
A huge part of the value of Tatis's contract is going to be how much, if any, his power bounces back. In '21 he had .611 SLG, .328 ISO & 158 wRC+. In '23 he had a .449 SLG, .191 ISO & 113 wRC+.
While maybe an even trade from a value perspective, why would a Mariners team that presumably has postseason ambitions after finishing one game out of the WC last season want to trade us their 26 year old top of the rotation pitcher with 4 years of control and a pre-arb catcher who has put up 7 WAR over the past two seasons?Here's a trade proposal......
To Red Sox
Logan Gilbert
Cal Raleigh
BTV Value: 108
To Mariners
Jarren Duran
Kutter Crawford
Nick Yorke
Miguel Bleis
BTV Value: 103.2
Red Sox get an ace-level pitcher and the catcher for the next 10 years while the Mariners get a boost to their OF, a major league starter, and two high level prospects.
Here's a trade proposal......
To Red Sox
Logan Gilbert
Cal Raleigh
BTV Value: 108
To Mariners
Jarren Duran
Kutter Crawford
Nick Yorke
Miguel Bleis
BTV Value: 103.2
Red Sox get an ace-level pitcher and the catcher for the next 10 years while the Mariners get a boost to their OF, a major league starter, and two high level prospects.
Just to be clear, the Tatis stuff came from a bunch of people in various places speculating about Tatis & other Padres being potentially available because of their financial issues, & some people speculating that Tatis may be a good fit for the Red Sox (which on paper he would be as a young, slugging (at least in '21) RHH who is a very good RF, & I just quoted a guy who was asking people what they would trade for Tatis because that was what I happened to find on Twitter when I did a quick search for something to add to the post.It's silly season and the Tatis talk was spawned from a source that doesn't seem to be well connected. That said, if Breslow wants to be "bold" and if SD is feeling an economic pinch I say kick the tires.
Yeah, while the value might look OK (debatable) I don't see the Mariners trading out of the current window into a later one. They are in GFIN mode.While maybe an even trade from a value perspective, why would a Mariners team that presumably has postseason ambitions after finishing one game out of the WC last season want to trade us their 26 year old top of the rotation pitcher with 4 years of control and a pre-arb catcher who has put up 7 WAR over the past two seasons?
I agree, but a if third party with a pitcher that SD might have interested is willing to get involved things can happen. As I said above it's silly season, but there's no harm in kicking about things that MIGHT seem reasonable.If the Padres are really open to moving Tatis, it seems likely they’d want cost controlled pitching in return- especially with the prospect of losing Snell, Lugo, Wacha, and Hader.
Bello, Mayer, and Houck for Tatis is deemed nearly equal value by BTV. Not sure how that would make much sense for the Red Sox, though.