This is now: BB and the direction of the Patriots

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8slim

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Ultimately you can only play against the guys that are on the field. And the Pats O looked good against those guys.

But repeatedly calling them a top 5 D is a little misleading.
 

BaseballJones

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Cool. Said differently what makes you think the Bills are such a great defense still when they’re missing two All Pros and a key DL outside of the stats they accumulated the several weeks prior?
They were missing Milano and other guys last week and only allowed 9 points.

Obviously they’re not going to be AS good when they’re missing top players but they’re still a good defense.
 

kenneycb

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Against Tyrod Taylor at home and arguably should’ve let up at least 3 to 14 more points if not for Giants incompetence. Again, context.

They’re a fine defense, probably middle of the road at this point. They’re not as great as you keep repeating.
 

BaseballJones

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Against Tyrod Taylor at home and arguably should’ve let up at least 3 to 14 more points if not for Giants incompetence. Again, context.

They’re a fine defense. They’re not as great as you keep repeating.
Fine. How much should we downgrade Mac’s performance then?
 

kenneycb

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Now you’re strawmanning me. You’ve been pumping up his performance in this thread by saying he beat an elite defense. I think he played well against a decent defense. I’m not downgrading anything beyond your exuberance.
 

Cellar-Door

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one play where Mac looked like he screwed up that I thought was actually a good sign btw (and also probably a reason Douglas hasn't gotten full time looks)... the 3rd and 2 where he tried to pull it back and drilled his lineman in the back. Live it looked like a total disaster by Mac.... on replay Douglas screws up the route and Mac might have thrown a pick if he lets it go.
 

BaseballJones

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You seem really determined to get everyone to agree that Mac played “great” against an “elite” defense.
I thought Mac was great today and the Bills defense is still really good. You guys disagree. That’s ok. We can disagree.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Against Tyrod Taylor at home and arguably should’ve let up at least 3 to 14 more points if not for Giants incompetence. Again, context.

They’re a fine defense, probably middle of the road at this point. They’re not as great as you keep repeating.
If we're downgrading Mac's performance because of Buffalo's injuries (something done around here every time Mac plays well against any team for whatever reason), let's do this.

Is Josh Allen not a top tier QB based on him putting up middling stats against a defense missing Judon, Gonzalez, White, Marcus Jones, Bolden, Ekuale, and Uche?

Allen played like shit last week against the Giants, he played like shit against the Commanders. He lit up a mediocre Miami defense. The Jets defense ate him alive.

I very much doubt that the Sons of Christian Okoye are crapping on Mahomes' performance today because it was against the sieve that is the Chargers defense.

This whole line of thinking makes sense in the abstract, or when gambling, but when judging how a guy actually played is kind of nuts.

Oh, nice throw there Tua. They should bench him.
 

kenneycb

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If we're downgrading Mac's performance because of Buffalo's injuries (something done around here every time Mac plays well against any team for whatever reason), let's do this.

Is Josh Allen not a top tier QB based on him putting up middling stats against a defense missing Judon, Gonzalez, White, Marcus Jones, Bolden, Ekuale, and Uche?

Allen played like shit last week against the Giants, he played like shit against the Commanders. He lit up a mediocre Miami defense. The Jets defense ate him alive.

I very much doubt that the Sons of Christian Okoye are crapping on Mahomes' performance today because it was against the sieve that is the Chargers defense.

This whole line of thinking makes sense in the abstract, or when gambling, but when judging how a guy actually played is kind of nuts.

Oh, nice throw there Tua. They should bench him.
Show me where I’m downgrading anything beyond the Bills D.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Show me where I’m downgrading anything beyond the Bills D.
What message are you trying to convey by "discounting" (your word) the Bills D? Just pointing it out for the cheap seats or the goodness of your heart?

And I'll ask again, how much do you discount the Pats defense or the opposing teams offense, based on how many injuries the Pats have had?
 

kenneycb

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What message are you trying to convey by "discounting" (your word) the Bills D? Just pointing it out for the cheap seats or the goodness of your heart?

And I'll ask again, how much do you discount the Pats defense or the opposing teams offense, based on how many injuries the Pats have had?
That I don’t think Mac should get “bonus points” or whatever for beating a great defense because the Bills aren’t a great defense. I’m assuming that’s why @BaseballJones feels the need to keep repeating it. As I said several times, he played well against a decent defense. I don’t see why that’s a bad thing beyond it not reaching your level pro-Mac bias.

I do discount the expectations for the Pats D based on the injuries to their two best players just as I would any team that loses its best players. Not 80 points or however much against the Cowboys and Saints. That’s also completely irrelevant to the point at hand as nobody is claiming the injury to Matt Judon caused Mac to play like shit this last month.
 

Deathofthebambino

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That’s also completely irrelevant to the point at hand as nobody is claiming the injury to Matt Judon caused Mac to play like shit this last month.
How about the fact that is offensive line has been in shambles due to injury, his alleged #1 receiver has been out with injury, and the only guy on the offense with any playmaking ability was out with injury?

Any discounting of that in Mac's case?
 

Deathofthebambino

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That I don’t think Mac should get “bonus points” or whatever for beating a great defense because the Bills aren’t a great defense. I’m assuming that’s why @BaseballJones feels the need to keep repeating it. As I said several times, he played well against a decent defense. I don’t see why that’s a bad thing beyond it not going far enough to your level pro-Mac bias.

I do discount the expectations for the Pats D based on the injuries to their two best players just as I would any team that loses its best players. Not 80 points or however much against the Cowboys and Saints. That’s also completely irrelevant to the point at hand as nobody is claiming the injury to Matt Judon caused Mac to play like shit this last month.
And out of curiosity, how many teams in the NFL right now do you consider having a "great" defense?
 

kenneycb

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How about the fact that is offensive line has been in shambles due to injury, his alleged #1 receiver has been out with injury, and the only guy on the offense with any playmaking ability was out with injury?

Any discounting of that in Mac's case?
What does that have to do with Mac playing well against a decent defense today? You’re beyond insufferable on this topic.
 

Deathofthebambino

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What does that have to do with Mac playing well against a decent defense today?
Thought I was pretty clearly responding to this "That’s also completely irrelevant to the point at hand as nobody is claiming the injury to Matt Judon caused Mac to play like shit this last month."

I mean, if you'll point out all of the benefit of the doubt posts you provided Mac due to the injuries around him on offense, I can be persuaded as to your objectivity.
 

kenneycb

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Thought I was pretty clearly responding to this "That’s also completely irrelevant to the point at hand as nobody is claiming the injury to Matt Judon caused Mac to play like shit this last month."

I mean, if you'll point out all of the benefit of the doubt posts you provided Mac due to the injuries around him on offense, I can be persuaded as to your objectivity.
Mac Jones playing poorly the last few weeks (I don’t think this is controversial) has nothing to do with the general point I’ve been making about Mac playing well against a decent but not great Bills D. You chose to pick a minor point and run with it. Go for it but I’m done engaging you on this point (because your inability to have a rational discussion) outside of saying I disagree.
 

streeter88

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Mac not laying an egg for once has broken the forum.
Nah. Most everyone is throwing roses at him for having a strong game.

And a couple folks are picking weird fights for no reason.
Could be argued that Mac and the Patriots are a Boutte foot drag and Parker's "finger tips" away from being tied with the elite Buffalo Bills for 2nd in the AFCE. (ducks)
 
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Van Everyman

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Could be argued that Mac is a Boutte foot drag and Parker's "finger tips" away from being tied with the elite Buffalo Bills for 2nd in the AFCE. (ducks)
Tied for first You’re forgetting a Bourne and/or Henry drop in the Miami game.

Of the seven games so far, Mac has had one A game (Buffalo), two B+ games (Eagles/Dolphins), two B games (Jets, Raiders – different games but similar grades from me) and two D- games (Cowboys/Saints – they’d be F’s if the OL wasn’t so terrible). That grades out to a B- for the year which feels about right given the extreme variance.

The two absolute stinkers kind of made everyone collectively forget that Mac started the year with two games where he was leading the team toward game winning drives before his receivers shit the bed to end the games. Possibly again last week against the Raiders, tho that was really deep in their own zone.

The point being: what we saw this week shouldn't exactly have come as a total surprise. Mac has done the same thing multiple times this year. The difference this week wasn’t Mac leading them to glory so much as that he/they started better and the receivers actually made the plays for once.
 

streeter88

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Tied for first. You’re forgetting a Bourne and/or Henry drop in the Miami game.
Didn’t want to be greedy… love the rest of your post if only that it reminds us of Mac’s extreme variability as a starter. Not going to wade into the causalities, and to be honest I thought Mac was done. But miraculously he lives, and maybe there is hope.
 

Deathofthebambino

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The point being: what we saw this week shouldn't exactly have come as a total surprise. Mac has done the same thing multiple times this year. The difference this week wasn’t Mac leading them to glory so much as that he/they started better and the receivers actually made the plays for once.
Hence why I push back so hard on these narratives about Mac being unable to get a win at the end of a game.

The Pats got the ball yesterday with a 5 point lead and 5:23 left in the 4th. Mac hit Brown for a 22 yard play, was called back due to penalty. He then had the ball tipped at the line incomplete. On 2nd and 15, he made a great throw to Bourne, who fumbled it back to Buffalo, which if he doesn't fumble, the Pats would have had about 3rd and 5 to keep the drive going. If they do, there's a chance the game ends there, with the Pats milking the clock.

Buffalo then went down and scored.

Now the Pats got the ball with 1:49 left and down by 3. Mac made multiple great throws on that drive, but the most important one, IMO, was the 3rd and 8 throw to Henry for 14 yards with a rusher about to light him up on the backside.

Let's say that plays out like so many other games, and Henry boots it. Then they bring out Ryland to try a 56 yarder to tie the game and he misses.

We're all back here listening to how Mac can't get it done, when the reality would have been once again Mac did what he could, but got let down by penalties, drops, a fumble by his WR. Mac was able to overcome yesterday, not just because Mac did good stuff, but more importantly, because his teammates did good things. If the pass protection broke down on that 3rd and 8 even a millisecond sooner, we're trying that long field goal, but it didn't, if Henry doesn't make the catch, we're trying that long field goal, but he did.

These games are never just about Mac, and never just because of Mac.

Just heard BB on the radio talking about that throw to Douglas at the goal line before the TD to Gesicki. Folks thought he waited too long. Bill said it was his best throw of the game.
 

Dogman

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I just watched a breakdown of that exact throw and it was a beauty. Basically, he placed it in the one spot the ball could be caught AND where the defender couldn't make a play on it.

It was a very nice play.
 

rodderick

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Tied for first You’re forgetting a Bourne and/or Henry drop in the Miami game.

Of the seven games so far, Mac has had one A game (Buffalo), two B+ games (Eagles/Dolphins), two B games (Jets, Raiders – different games but similar grades from me) and two D- games (Cowboys/Saints – they’d be F’s if the OL wasn’t so terrible). That grades out to a B- for the year which feels about right given the extreme variance.

The two absolute stinkers kind of made everyone collectively forget that Mac started the year with two games where he was leading the team toward game winning drives before his receivers shit the bed to end the games. Possibly again last week against the Raiders, tho that was really deep in their own zone.

The point being: what we saw this week shouldn't exactly have come as a total surprise. Mac has done the same thing multiple times this year. The difference this week wasn’t Mac leading them to glory so much as that he/they started better and the receivers actually made the plays for once.
Man, I don't know in what planet the Jets and Raiders games were B performances. Are we talking about QBs in general or grades considering who Mac Jones is and what he's capable of? Also didn't think he was a B+ versus the Eagles.

To meMac hasn't really done anything even remotely similar to what he did yesterday at any time this year. Everything regarding his process was better. Mechanically it was almost like watching a different player altogether. QBs can have variance in their play that's not dependent on the context around them. It's not like his play is static and results only vary based on the OL, play calling and the receivers. He actually played well. It's not like he was jittery, panicky, escaping clean pockets, delivery sideline changeups with his feet parallel to the line of scrimmage but guys were just coming up with 50 50 balls and making plays for him after the catch. Everything looked better, including Mac.
 

Jimbodandy

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Hence why I push back so hard on these narratives about Mac being unable to get a win at the end of a game.

The Pats got the ball yesterday with a 5 point lead and 5:23 left in the 4th. Mac hit Brown for a 22 yard play, was called back due to penalty. He then had the ball tipped at the line incomplete. On 2nd and 15, he made a great throw to Bourne, who fumbled it back to Buffalo, which if he doesn't fumble, the Pats would have had about 3rd and 5 to keep the drive going. If they do, there's a chance the game ends there, with the Pats milking the clock.

Buffalo then went down and scored.

Now the Pats got the ball with 1:49 left and down by 3. Mac made multiple great throws on that drive, but the most important one, IMO, was the 3rd and 8 throw to Henry for 14 yards with a rusher about to light him up on the backside.

Let's say that plays out like so many other games, and Henry boots it. Then they bring out Ryland to try a 56 yarder to tie the game and he misses.

We're all back here listening to how Mac can't get it done, when the reality would have been once again Mac did what he could, but got let down by penalties, drops, a fumble by his WR. Mac was able to overcome yesterday, not just because Mac did good stuff, but more importantly, because his teammates did good things. If the pass protection broke down on that 3rd and 8 even a millisecond sooner, we're trying that long field goal, but it didn't, if Henry doesn't make the catch, we're trying that long field goal, but he did.

These games are never just about Mac, and never just because of Mac.

Just heard BB on the radio talking about that throw to Douglas at the goal line before the TD to Gesicki. Folks thought he waited too long. Bill said it was his best throw of the game.
Great post. If Henry drops that ball, we're all talking about how Mac can't get it done. More importantly, if the OL played like it has been all year, the whole week is talk about how not only is Mac terrible, but so is Bill.

I predicted at the beginning of the year that it would take a good five weeks for the OL to come together with new OC and Klemm (not searching for it, but it's there). Took a bit longer, due to the injuries. And it won't be a great OL regardless because we didn't do enough to make it very good to great in the offseason. But if the OL can hold up like it did yesterday, then at least the conversation will shift to how Mac's ceiling is too low (fair) than how his floor is Home Depot employee and Bill lost his fastball, etc.
 

DJnVa

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Not sure what locked in really means. Kraft can eat the money if he really wanted to.
 

Jungleland

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Yeah, the locked in wording feels somewhat of an overstatement - it's not like coach contracts hit the cap, and they've been eaten before. It says a lot more about the whisperings from the offseason about "playoff team or else" type stuff. An extension this past year suggests that was exaggerated, an empty threat, or misinformation.
 

astrozombie

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This is disappointing, but expected from Kraft. I think all that "I expect the playoffs" rumblings were a signal to fans more than anything. But when it came down to it, Kraft would rather fail with the guy who got him this far than make the break now and try something else. I wonder what the extension means for personnel decisions.
 

lexrageorge

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This is disappointing, but expected from Kraft. I think all that "I expect the playoffs" rumblings were a signal to fans more than anything. But when it came down to it, Kraft would rather fail with the guy who got him this far than make the break now and try something else. I wonder what the extension means for personnel decisions.
I think it means he values organizational stability and continuity fairly high, and has made a conscious decision to not overreact to short term fluctuations in performance. As noted before, this move was made during the offseason. And the contract does not prevent Kraft from moving on from BB if he feels it has become time to do so.
 

astrozombie

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I think it means he values organizational stability and continuity fairly high, and has made a conscious decision to not overreact to short term fluctuations in performance. As noted before, this move was made during the offseason. And the contract does not prevent Kraft from moving on from BB if he feels it has become time to do so.
He clearly values stability - awhile back he loved to point out that he only had 2 starting QBs and 1 HC. That's fine and admirable. But the last few years have not been a "short term fluctuation in performance" in my eyes. They have missed the playoffs 2/3 years and the one year they did make it, they were thoroughly outclassed. They are probably going to miss the playoffs again this year. This team doesn't look like it's a couple players away - it looks like it is an entire offensive overhaul away from "competitive". And I actually thought they were good in the Bills game, but that seems more outlier than trend.
Furthermore, this extension is for 3 years and as you said "the contract does not prevent Kraft from moving on from BB if he feels it has become time to do so." How many more years of what we have seen moves the situation from "short term fluctuation" to "BB doesn't have it any more"?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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This is disappointing, but expected from Kraft. I think all that "I expect the playoffs" rumblings were a signal to fans more than anything. But when it came down to it, Kraft would rather fail with the guy who got him this far than make the break now and try something else. I wonder what the extension means for personnel decisions.
You are pretty confident in your assessment that its time to move on from BB. If anything, Kraft's decision to retain him should give you pause that maybe Robert/Jonathan aren't qualified to hire a good replacement.

Do you really want to jettison Belichick only to have Kraft hand the reigns over to someone worse? Or maybe you are simply ready for a change and if the Pats hire a trendy type who may have some secret sauce but is more than likely just another coach with pluses and minuses...and gets them to a few eight and nine win seasons.

History shows that this outcome happens pretty often. It certainly doesn't argue for firing your HC just because some fans are ready for a change.

Fwiw and nobody cares but I am certainly open minded about the Patriots moving on. If you look across the league, new hires "fail" often enough that they should think hard before getting rid of the old guy we know.
 
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astrozombie

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You are pretty confident in your assessment that its time to move on from BB. If anything, Kraft's decision to retain him should give you pause that maybe Robert/Jonathan aren't qualified to hire a good replacement.

Do you really want to jettison Belichick only to have Kraft hand the reigns over to someone worse? Or maybe you are simply ready for a change and if the Pats hire a trendy type who may have some secret sauce but is more than likely just another coach with pluses and minuses...and gets them to a few eight and nine win seasons.

History shows that this outcome happens pretty often. It certainly doesn't argue for firing your HC just because some fans are ready for a change.

Fwiw and nobody cares but I am certainly open minded about the Patriots moving on. If you look across the league, new hires "fail" often enough that they should think hard before getting rid of the old guy we know.
Yes, yes I do want to jettison BB. "The next guy could be worse!!!!11!1!!!" I mean, he could also be better. Pete Carroll had a winning record in 3 seasons with the Pats. The guy they got after him was pretty good for awhile (even after a crummy first season!).

ETA: what does it mean that "Robert/Jonathan aren't qualified to hire a good replacement."? Does not having any succession plan make them good owners?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yes, yes I do want to jettison BB. "The next guy could be worse!!!!11!1!!!" I mean, he could also be better. Pete Carroll had a winning record in 3 seasons with the Pats. The guy they got after him was pretty good for awhile (even after a crummy first season!).

ETA: what does it mean that "Robert/Jonathan aren't qualified to hire a good replacement."? Does not having any succession plan make them good owners?
My point is if the Krafts let you down with the extension, what gives you any confidence that they will get the transition right? They may be an even bigger problem than BB if they can't see what's obvious to many people - BB is washed (or a never was who lucked into Brady).

What if the rot you see runs deeper?
 

Bowhemian

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Yes, yes I do want to jettison BB. "The next guy could be worse!!!!11!1!!!" I mean, he could also be better. Pete Carroll had a winning record in 3 seasons with the Pats. The guy they got after him was pretty good for awhile (even after a crummy first season!).

ETA: what does it mean that "Robert/Jonathan aren't qualified to hire a good replacement."? Does not having any succession plan make them good owners?
How do you know that they don't have a succession plan?
 

DJnVa

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How do you know that they don't have a succession plan?
How do you *really* have a succession plan? Hire a coach 2 years early? They kinda sorta did that with Mayo. If the time comes and BB leaves, they have an internal option they like and the ability to see what's available externally. That's about all you can do.
 

rodderick

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How do you *really* have a succession plan? Hire a coach 2 years early? They kinda sorta did that with Mayo. If the time comes and BB leaves, they have an internal option they like and the ability to see what's available externally. That's about all you can do.
I think Josh was the first succession plan and then that was discarded when it became clear Bill still had the drive and a willingness to coach into his 70s. Mayo is now the annointed successor, but everything will hinge on how successful the Patriots are in the final years of Bill's tenure, if they remain in the spot they're in now, a clean break will come. Which is why it's kinda stupid to talk about succession plans with head coaches in general, you don't know who will be available and you don't know the circumstances that will precipitate the move. I think Mayo was put in the position of HC in waiting under the assumption that they'd remain competitive until Bill retired and thus have reason to want continuity on that front. Is that still the case?
 

astrozombie

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How do you know that they don't have a succession plan?
I was addressing the fact that person I was responding to said "If anything, Kraft's decision to retain him should give you pause that maybe Robert/Jonathan aren't qualified to hire a good replacement." Keeping the current guy because you may not know how to choose the next guy is pretty indicative of not having a succession plan.
 

Bowhemian

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I was addressing the fact that person I was responding to said "If anything, Kraft's decision to retain him should give you pause that maybe Robert/Jonathan aren't qualified to hire a good replacement." Keeping the current guy because you may not know how to choose the next guy is pretty indicative of not having a succession plan.
Or just maybe it could indicate that they are comfortable with the current head coach.
 

astrozombie

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Or just maybe it could indicate that they are comfortable with the current head coach.
Maybe! Maybe the owners are comfortable with the guy who missed the playoffs 2 out of the last 3 years (and likely a third) and got embarrassed in the one (wild card) game they did manage to play. All while generating such engaging debates in the fandom as "does the QB suck because the offense is awful, or is the offense awful because the QB sucks?"
 
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Are we moving into the “if Kraft keeps BB he should sell the team because he’s not committed to winning” phase of things? Waiting for Kraft to get the full Henry treatment from fans who aren’t used to having mediocre (the last 3) or lean years.

looking around the league there are very few coaches I’d even consider taking over BB. And we’ve seen most hotshot coordinators and college coaches flame out spectacularly.

same thing for GM’s. Even the most commonly accepted good GM’s have plenty of lean years where they whiff on drafts and veteran acquisitions.

the Steelers, Ravens and Seahawks have had a lot of consistency in being “well run” franchises and all have their share of down years. The Bills GM/HC duo got a ton of praise but has failed to actually win anything and it looks like perhaps their window is closing. KC is seeing some depletion of their roster with a few bad drafts and questionable veteran pickups failing to address holes they have. And on and on

keeping a good roster together every year is designed to be very hard in the NFL. It’s what made the 20 year run so special. Even without Brady - replace him with a good/nonHOF QB and most of those teams are playoff contenders and one or two probably win a Super Bowl.

The chances of the Pats finding a coach better than BB and a GM better than BB over a 5-7 year period is unlikely. Doesn’t mean sticking with BB forever of course but it likely gets worse before they find “the guys” to bring a new era of excellence
 

leftfieldlegacy

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He clearly values stability - awhile back he loved to point out that he only had 2 starting QBs and 1 HC. That's fine and admirable. But the last few years have not been a "short term fluctuation in performance" in my eyes. They have missed the playoffs 2/3 years and the one year they did make it, they were thoroughly outclassed. They are probably going to miss the playoffs again this year. This team doesn't look like it's a couple players away - it looks like it is an entire offensive overhaul away from "competitive". And I actually thought they were good in the Bills game, but that seems more outlier than trend.
Furthermore, this extension is for 3 years and as you said "the contract does not prevent Kraft from moving on from BB if he feels it has become time to do so." How many more years of what we have seen moves the situation from "short term fluctuation" to "BB doesn't have it any more"?
I disagree with the bolded. Add 2 very good OL and a true #1 WR to this offense and it would be drastically improved. The problem is finding someone in the organization who can identify OL and WR talent and convincing BB to draft them.
 

astrozombie

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@NextBigThing8184 - not sure if that question is directed at me, but for the sake of clarity I disagree entirely with the idea that "if Kraft keeps BB he should sell the team because he’s not committed to winning”. I think the Krafts wants to win. I think that he has enjoyed winning these past 20 or so years. I think they have been happy to be (relatively) hands off and let BB continue to win. But... I also think they are banking on the last 4 years being an aberration and I am not so sure they are.
 
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