Refsnyder is a great 4th / 5th outfielder. Maybe he's a good platoon solution, but he's barely replacement level. My problem is your comment (which I highlighted) - I don't see how without targeting a RHH outfielder, the Sox won't be chaining together 3 lefties in a row...and maybe two times in the line up. Is there someone who could be this years Shane Victorino acquisition? There aren't a ton of outfield options via free agency who are a clear upgrade over what '23 was. And the Sox must improve one of the historically bad defenses. How do they use their prospect capital and salary cap capital to upgrade?
It's why I think Soto is a non starter. He makes them even more lefthanded (yes great hitter), but he's a horrible defender and will cost a ton in prospects. Imagine Yoshida, Duran and Soto. Pitchers will be afraid to let a ball be hit in the air. And the alternative is balls hit on the ground, past Devers and Casas. In and of himself, Soto is a upgrade for any team. In this circumstance, given the weaknesses inherent with this team, I think Soto is actually a downgrade.....as the added offense makes a putrid defense even worse.
Even if we make the lineup as lefty heavy as we can based on what's currently available...
C McGuire (L)
1B Casas (L)
2B Valdez (L)
SS Story (R)
3B Devers (L)
LF Duran (L)
CF Abreu (L)
RF Verdugo (L)
DH Yoshida (L)
You can still avoid falling victim to a strong LHP by not putting the people you are not willing to PH for together.
The McGuire position can become Wong. Duran, Abreu &/or Verdugo can become Refnsyder & Rafaela, Valdez can become Urias or Reyes or Rafaela.
So if we're not PHing for Casas, Devers or Yoshida, all you have to do is not put them together, & put someone else in between. So let's say our lineup against a RH starter is:
LF Duran
3B Devers
RF Verdugo
1B Casas
SS Story
DH Yoshida
2B Valdez
CF Abreu
C McGuire
You can replace any of Duran, Verdugo, Valdez, Abreu & McGuire with RHH, leaving the best case for a LHH reliever in the heart of the order something like Devers/Refsnyder/Casas.
& to Max Power's point...
Devers ISO against righties was .235 compared to .215 against lefties. & Casas ISO against righties was .223 compared to .241 against lefties. They both make significant hard contact against lefties.
None of that to say Soto is a good fit, because he really isn't in a world where we're not moving on from 2 of Duran, Verdugo & Yoshida, but Soto had a 130 wRC+ this season against lefties (166 against righties). To Max's point, he does have the much wider ISO split (.273 to .180), but it's not like one would be uncomfortable having him out there.
I hate the idea of trading a bunch of assets for the opportunity to try to get a guy to extend for what will likely be full market value, or watch him walk for a comp pick after the season. Especially someone who isn't a great fit with what's already on the roster. So I agree with the conclusion regardless.