I don't think I'd be very happy. At a minimum, I'd be very nervous. I'm not sure any of these metrics from the Billy Ashley's post yesterday would change at Fenway. (Where do these graphics come from, BTW? Not that I need another time waster in my life...)
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The numbers come from Baseball Savant. I'm sure people here on SoSH have other sites they use for similar data that probably goes a bit more in-depth. For those of us whom still stick to things not behind a paywall (raises hand) it's a pretty cool website to look around at. If you didn't know about the site, hopefully it seems as something interesting to tool around on while working in the office (as I like to).
For Xander specifically, he's above average (red) on 7 of the 14 characteristics. I think of them similar to Leading Economic Indicators when talking about finance. They give some really good data points, but I don't think of them as the be all and end all to determining the value of a baseball player. For Xander specifically, they aren't that far off his batted ball data from his 2016, 2017 and 2022 seasons (his 2018, 2019 and 2021 numbers were all a lot better). Which is why I didn't say I thought he'd be the 130ish OPS+ player he was those seasons, but it's also why I think the 110/115 OPS+ numbers on average from the 2016, 2017 and 2022 seasons would have presented a reasonable baseline of expectation.
I am not smart enough to quantify or study this, but I'd assume that baseball savant data (hard hit rates) also punish players that are willing to situationally serve the ball to the opposite field, which I absolutely believe is a skill that some players have and some do not.
Maybe there is data somewhere to prove (or disprove me) but having watched Xander his whole career, he was excellent at serving the ball to the right side when necessary and his hit charts back that up, and he learned how to use both approaches at Fenway. As opposed to someone like Turner whom has much better "batted ball" data and was always an adept all fields hitter, but seems wholly incapable (or unwilling) to go the other way this year - probably a case of getting pull happy with the Wall.
Obviously the "no doubt studs" are those whom can mash the ball to stupid levels on the pull side and hit line drives going opposite, such as Devers, but I don't think anyone ever claimed Bogaerts was that kind of player.
The other part of the Bogaerts equation is "whom did we replace him with" or at least it always has been for me. The answer there is "nothing inspiring". Story was - ostensibly at least - supposed to be the plan at SS. I like Story, I'm glad we signed him (however it works out) but using batted ball data to put him over Bogaerts isn't necessarily helpful. His batted ball data looks a lot like Bogaerts (which is actually WHY I think Story will be a good fit for Fenway, and would be very pleased to have him at 2b and Bogaerts at SS for the next 5 years).
Removing Story (because we always were going to need 2 middle infielders, and my contention was wanting Bogaerts at one and Story at the other), batted ball data for Enrique Hernandez (
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/enrique-hernandez-571771?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb); Christian Arroyo, whom always gets injured to the point of not having enough PAs to get meaningful sample sizes, but here is 2022 anyway (
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/christian-arroyo-624414?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb); Rob Refsnyder (similarly not enough PAs but -
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rob-refsnyder-608701?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb) was always going to be a mess.
*I know "but Mayer is coming" is an argument, and I get it. Mayer could be a stud and perform the way Yoshida has. He could also struggle mightily the way Volpe and Casas have (just to name two stud prospects). I'm interested to see the player get up here too, but I would not have let that affect my approach to signing Bogaerts. I have no idea if Bloom did or did not and I'm not trying to say one way or the other.
All of which is a long winded way of saying - the batted ball data for Xander is pretty similar to what he put up in 2016, 2017 and 2022, and I think that is the kind of player he would have been for most of the hypothetical 7/$175m contract you mentioned being pleased we didn't sign him to, that I would have been thrilled with.