It doesn't surprise me; as you say what the Pats can't do this year is throw the ball to James White on a 3rd and 7 and have him pick up the first like they used to do.
The Michael McCorkle "Mac" Jones Thread
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The loss of Ty Montgomery is huge for this team as I assume that is how BB/MP envisioned his usage as the 3rd down back.
I'm not that surprised, we get a lot of long runs and go balls.
What I WOULD be curious about is where our percentage of "explosive" plays that result in TDs ranks. I bet it's low. We have a lot of 20-30 yard runs that don't have a breakaway, and 20+ yard throws that end with a tackle or OOB. The biggest problem is definitely consistent execution, but I think the combination of skill players and QB leads to a lot of our long plays not ending in TDs the way they do for other teams.
We don't have those stats but I would argue our % of explosive plays that result in TDs is normal. A lot of our TDs come from long runs or passes. We have the opposite problem we don't get enough TDs from regular red zone appearances.
I would argue that one of the worst things you can do to a young QB's performance - or any human being's really - is provide them with a guarantee of safety, either bodily or otherwise, and then take it away while they have to do their job.
Kurt Warner and the Athletic guys talked about their lack of hots or their weird use of only vertical hots vs blitzes. Their problem is two-fold, they are bad at picking up and blocking blitzes and they don't have efficient hot routes built in. I have been wondering about the vertical hots too. Is it because they want to avoid the problem Lamar had vs Miami last year where all his hots were horizontal so the blitzers could just bat them down? Is it that they don't trust his arm strength to rifle in a pass in a congested area? Do they think the line should be able to pick up the blitz long enough for him to hit the vertical hot? What's the deal here?
That's an amazing observation.
Wild guess, but I think that they're not sure that Mac has the post-snap acumen to handle more conventional, shorter hots. It's easier to fool a younger guy into throwing bad picks by dropping a LB or DE into coverage hot lanes.
Great point - that's been where he has been victimized interception wise the most.
I definitely think it's that they feel like those are "safer" passes and don't trust Mac's arm or decision making.
I may have been listening to the same podcast-was this the one where they talked about how the Pats coaches like to run go routes against blitzes, and one of the reasons they may have (over) drafted Tyquan Thornton is because Baylor's offense does basically the same thing?
They also mentioned how Brady torched Carolina for two long TDs to Mike Evans on go routes against blitzes but let's not talk about that.
FWIW, I don't think that anyone is saying that go routes are a bad idea against blitzes. And maybe it's the right approach for Mac. He threw a lot of balls for guys to run under at Bama in general. It's not a terrible plan.
But if the team did think (and I repeat, this is speculation) that Mac can't be trusted to hit that 5 yard out or slant under pressure because INT, then it would be the conservative play to just call the go routes. They have a lower completion rate whether you're TB12 or Mac Jones, but you're not going to get picked because some experienced LB drifted back into coverage and read your eyes.
Ideally both shorter hots and deep hots are on the menu IMO. It's the best way to discourage teams from sending extra people.
I think PFF uses 20 yard passes for explosive plays but only 10 yard runs. No, I don't know why they do it like that.
The seem to me to have a lot of first and second down plays that put them into 3rd and long.
Again, my preception is that their trips into the red zone are both infrequent and (typically) unsuccessful.
You are correct. The Pats are dead last in RZ TD percentage, scoring a TD on about 41% of their RZ possessions, and they are tied with three other teams for second to last in RZ possessions per game (2.6 per game). Denver is last in RZ possessions per game by a full half possession (!).
Alex Barth got more into it today. If you look at their yards per play on offense they are 16th. Yards per play includes all offensive plays both explosive and non. But if you take away everyone's explosive plays and just look at yards per non-explosive play they are 28th in the league. They actually are 2nd for number of explosive plays too - without those big plays they are a nothing-burger offense. They aren't an efficient offense and it's not just one or two things. It varies by week even though we see some commonalities like poor pass pro, bad spacing, Mac Jones going through stretches where his accuracy disappears, questionable schemes and game-plans, poor run blocking, etc.
In a lot of things in life, just like in sports, consistency is when you can nail the small things over and over, not the big things. Mac is a young QB and a young QB is going to be inconsistent. Next year is (OBVIOUSLY) a huge step for him and his career, both in NE and in the NFL. Can he become consistent and get the small things right--5 yard dump off instead of trying something that leads to an incomplete. Throwing the ball away instead of a sack.
We'll see. If he can become consistent with those things and continues to hit the big plays...
yeah looking at the log, actually we have a LOT of long TDs on offense compared to total TDs.
Over 20 yards we have:
2 rushing TDs (both Rham, 31 v. CLE, 34 v. LV)
9 Passing TDs:
Of the passing TDs: Mac has 5 in 13 games: 48 v. BUF (Marcus Jones play), 48 v. CIN (Jakobi hail mary tip drill), 44 v. PIT (Agholor), 37 and 31 v. MIN (Henry and Agholor)
Zappe has 4 in 4 games: 31 v. CLE (Henry), 30 v. CHI (Jakobi), 25 v. GB (Parker) and 24 v. Detroit (Jakobi again)
Just missing was a 19 yard run by Tyquan Thornton.
We gave up only 6 offensive TDs longer than 20 yards, so we actually are a positive team on long TDs.
It's funny that this is in the McCorkle thread, because—warning, people aren't gonna want to hear this—I don't think it has that much to do with Mac Jones. Per PFRef, they're tied for 17th in yards per play with five other teams (so 17th-22th). They're tied for 14th-16th in net yards per pass attempt, which includes sacks, and 13th-14th in Y/A, which does not. But Mac's Y/A is only 6.9 (ranks tied for 20th-23rd) and his NY/A is only 5.8 (22nd). Bailey Zappe is propping up the team's total in both figures, at 8.5 Y/A and 7.6 NY/A (Mahomesian numbers). Basically the passing offense was great in the two Zappe games and has been bad the rest of the time. Your mileage may vary on how much to attribute that to the respective QBs. They had a bunch of explosives with Zappe, too - I think 14 (and 1 with Hoyer) out of 54 overall.
For all the (digital) ink spilled over Mac, the other thing that hangs over the whole offense is that the run game has been really bad. RBSDM has our rush EPA at 25th in the league, running success rate at 22nd. I think they thought they'd be able to run the ball as a bread-and-butter play and they can't, and so they're left scrambling week to week between quick game, deep stuff, and mixing in some runs. Patricia gets a lot of shit (some of it deserved), but I struggle with what kinds of plays to call / run / design when they are really not good at anything.
I'm not a film guy, but did the offense just feel different to you in the Cleveland and Detroit games? It reminded me exactly of what the offense looked like last year when it was humming during their mid-season run. They were running it well, and extremely effective in play action. And then when Mac returned, they went back into the shotgun most of the time. I haven't seen updated numbers, is he still primarily in the shotgun? Maybe this is a case where the numbers and film don't match up with my memory, but the entire approach felt different in those two games and I don't understand why they deviated from it when Mac got back. My initial thought is that they want to be able to drive the ball down the field more to compete with the better offenses in the league (what we saw in the Ravens game, with mixed results), but it's weird that they seemed to abandon the successful approach as soon as Mac got back.
Per Pro Football Reference:
Shotgun/Under Center:
Jones has thrown 341 passes from shotgun this season, and 68 from under center--83%.
Zappe has thrown 76 passes from shotgun this season, and 16 from under center--83%.
For play action:
Jones: 68 play action, 334 non, so 17% play action.
Zappe: 24 play action, 68 non, so 26% play action.
Yeah. I guess the easiest explanation, is that play-action for Zappe is helpful for the rookie, and that with Mac they were still experimenting with opening things up. But with such a small sample, game script could have played enough of a role to skew things.
Hurts has to be number 1 among the climbers, with Trevor Lawrence and Daniel Jones at 2 and 3 in whichever order you prefer among the two. If you doubt Jones because you only remember him as a turnover machine, you should know that he has a total of EIGHT turnovers this season (5 INTs, 3 fumbles). He's been a slightly lesser version of Hurts (especially given that he doesn't get to throw to AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Quez Watkins). Brian Daboll has done a miraculous job resurrecting this kid's career.
As for Lawrence, he's been an absolute terror the last few weeks. Kudos to Pederson. It seems coaching is important in this league, which is among the reasons why I'm not giving up on Mac. I think he can get better if they get him a real OC (or QB coach at least).
Sure we do...
I did a little solving. 285 TDs this season on offense across all teams have been 20+ yards out, be they passing or rushing. The Patriots have 11 such touchdowns this season, tied for 9th most (with the Bengals) this season.
The leader thus far in the season is Vegas, with 18. Full list:
Team, 20+ Yard TDs
LVR 18
PHI 17
SEA 16
SFO 15
BUF 13
GNB 13
DAL 12
MIA 12
CIN 11
NWE 11
NOR 10
JAX 9
KAN 9
WAS 9
CAR 8
CHI 8
CLE 8
DET 8
LAC 8
MIN 8
NYJ 8
DEN 7
ARI 6
BAL 6
LAR 6
NYG 6
HOU 5
TAM 5
TEN 5
ATL 4
IND 3
PIT 1
I'm guessing that there may also be a lack of faith in any of our receiving options (including both RBs, TEs, and WRs) to create separation in those short-down/quick-read scenarios. Edelman was the master at this, but White and Gronk were also excellent at creating those little windows.
I feel like teams that are particularly effective in the red zone are those who can run. But more broadly speaking, it is teams who can consistently convert 3-8 yard plays, which the Pats are bad at (cf: the lack of consistency noted above).
Rham and Harris are both excellent RBs. Rham especially is great at yards after contact. The issue with the running game is 100% the fault of the O-Line. Now Patricia may deserve shit here as well since his job being play-caller seems to be of no help in him doing his job (where have I heard that phrase before?) as O-Line coach. And vice versa!
My reasoning was based on Hurts moved from 16 to top 2 or 3, so about +14; but Geno moved from off the list (so at best, #31, to Pro Bowl, so call it #6 at worst. That's +25 at least.
That's fair. My view is that Hurts is the MVP of the NFL, or #2 behind Mahomes. Without him, the Eagles are middling.
Geno is certainly good, but replace Geno with Baker Mayfield and Seattle is probably the same. Replace Geno with Hurts and Seattle is the best team in the NFC.
Right. And I agree with you in principle, but probs not Baker. But probably yes with someone like Justin Fields. I wouldn't even rate Geno in the top 10-15 for guys I would want to start my team in 2023.
I was just going by the delta from that original preseason value list.
I wonder how many of the Patriots "explosive" touchdowns are defensive TDs. It feels like it's close to half.
That list is offensive only.
Defensive and return TDs by their nature tend to be mostly longer. 5 of the 7 Patriots defensive TDs were over 20 yards
Mac played a spectacular first half of football today, plus about 80% of the first drive of the second half. Then he made a ridiculously horrible decision and throw with White on Agholor and got picked in the red zone.
He had been so good at avoiding the dumb throws but that one was inexcusable. He’ll never be more than mid-level until he can stop those dumb errors. That’s what will determine if he becomes a decent starter in this league.
He had been so good at avoiding the dumb throws but that one was inexcusable. He’ll never be more than mid-level until he can stop those dumb errors. That’s what will determine if he becomes a decent starter in this league.
A bad throw here and there wouldn't be a killer for most QBs, but Mac's margin for error will always be smaller than most due to his inferior arm strength and inability to make plays with his legs. It's a really fine line for him.
It was such a terrible decision and throw. He has to play perfectly because of those factors you mention.
This what you get with Mac. You either put the training wheels on and he completes 99% of his passes for 120y or he throws for 300y with multiple picks. The box scores look ok, but watching the game it never looks pretty and it's frustrating as hell.
He'll def keep his job next year. I think continuity means a lot and maybe he'll improve some more. I just can't stand watching him play QB.
He'll def keep his job next year. I think continuity means a lot and maybe he'll improve some more. I just can't stand watching him play QB.
The offense simply isn’t nearly good enough. I don’t know how much blame to allot to Mac for that. Probably some, likely not all.
I’d like to see him with an actual OC and QB coach, a better OL, a #1 WR, and maybe a RB who can pick up a blitz.
I’d like to see him with an actual OC and QB coach, a better OL, a #1 WR, and maybe a RB who can pick up a blitz.
View: https://twitter.com/GeorgeBalekji/status/1612206022290214912
Reporter:
"Are you satisfied with the progress you made this year?"
Mac Jones: "No."
Mac Jones: "We have to put a better product out there and it starts with me."
View: https://twitter.com/ByAlFrancisco/status/1612206846194122754
Mac Jones on the Patriots' offense this year: "The blame's on me. It's my offense, it's my group of guys. It's an uphill battle. Learned a lot. I learned more than I ever could have imagined in a football season. Just want to be able to build on it."
View: https://twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1612206983981010948
Reporter:
"Are you satisfied with the progress you made this year?"
Mac Jones: "No."
Mac Jones: "We have to put a better product out there and it starts with me."
View: https://twitter.com/ByAlFrancisco/status/1612206846194122754
Mac Jones on the Patriots' offense this year: "The blame's on me. It's my offense, it's my group of guys. It's an uphill battle. Learned a lot. I learned more than I ever could have imagined in a football season. Just want to be able to build on it."
View: https://twitter.com/RealAlexBarth/status/1612206983981010948
It’s a bad sign that Brock Purdy, a 6th rounder, looks roughly three hundred millions times more dynamic and effective than Mac ever has. Mac’s complete lack of athleticism of any kind simply doesn’t work in today’s NFL and the Pats are paying the price for their lack of vision.
He’s never even gonna be Chad Pennington.
I'm not sure what the Agholor throw was. Only time in the whole game they threw it to him, and I don't know whether it was a bad decision, a missed throw or both.
The second INT was clearly a poor decision, or a desperate one, or a terrible read.
This was a bizarre game. Two kicks returned for TDs against the Pats? That's insane. Several curious non-calls that went against the Pats on offense and D.
It feels like this was one where the Pats would have had a chance but for the ST.
The second INT was clearly a poor decision, or a desperate one, or a terrible read.
This was a bizarre game. Two kicks returned for TDs against the Pats? That's insane. Several curious non-calls that went against the Pats on offense and D.
It feels like this was one where the Pats would have had a chance but for the ST.
Bottom line is this kid isn’t good enough. The sooner that Belichick figures that out and and finds someone with more upside the better.
Let's be honest, Zappe looked much better than Mac this year. It wasn't a high bar.
I mean, he played clearly his best half of football of the season and was betrayed by the open wound that was the Pats kickoff unit. I think this game was more encouranging than not, but I get where people see it differently.
Agreed. It’s Mac’s complete lack of athleticism that shows up in so many ways (pocket awareness, lack of speed, lack of arm strength, etc.) that consistently ends up hurting the team. He is not the guy.
I need to go back and watch the first half, but regardless of how he looked for stretches, he just can't seem to get the team over the top. He'll play great in stretches and then absolutely kill them.
I can see why folks want to see him with a real OC, so I'm willing to do that too. I just have less hope than others.
If the team (particularly the offensive unit) wasn't a mess in ways that I think go far beyond Mac, I'd be a lot lower on him.
I think this game was really close to the Ravens game in some ways. Mac just can't string full games together and it seems this year he has two modes: make no mistakes but also make no plays and make some plays at the cost of making mistakes. I thought he was awesome until the first interception and woeful afterwards. Not a great situation to be in and I won't ask of him to beat Buffalo on the road in a game in which the Pats allow two kickoff return TDs, but it does seem as if he's really comfortable operating when the run game is working and you can call play action, and not really suited yet for carrying the bulk of the offense, which makes him unable to claw this team into games in which it becomes obvious they'll need to throw their way to a win.
I still don't think they have won a game with him as quarterback when another team has scored either more than 27 or 30 points.
While this is true, I think the play calling and OL got a lot better as the season wore on and we saw a lot of that today. They had all their playmakers and Mac looked decent, but the lack of athleticism and poor decision making keeps showing up. I don't think that's stuff he can overcome. I think what we're all hoping for is the they bring in a real OC that can scheme around his limitations to make him look good.
Mac doesn't do anything great. To be the guy, you have to be great at something.(arm, processing, speed, quickness, pocket awareness) Mac is not great at anything.
He's not the guy. He's a guy who can get you 7 to 10 workmanlike wins if the defense scores 10 touchdowns during the season.and then lose in the playoffs, at best. At worst, soul sucking INTs when you're trying to even make the playoffs.
He's not the guy. He's a guy who can get you 7 to 10 workmanlike wins if the defense scores 10 touchdowns during the season.and then lose in the playoffs, at best. At worst, soul sucking INTs when you're trying to even make the playoffs.