Bogaerts is a really, really interesting situation and decision for Boston. Obviously a terrific player, and beloved. And that's worth a lot. Remarkably consistent over the last four seasons from an ops+ perspective: 135, 139, 128, 131. Career ops+ of 117. Just a really good baseball player, posting a career bWAR/162 of 4.5. Excellent. 4 of the last 5 seasons, in the top 25 in MVP voting.
BUT... he's now 30. A 6-7 year contract would likely mean that the back half of that would include some pretty serious decline years. His HR production has gone down the last few years:
2019: 1 hr every 18.6 ab
2020: 1 hr every 18.5 ab
2021: 1 hr every 23.0 ab
2022: 1 hr every 37.1 ab
ISO last four years:
2019: .246
2020: .202
2021: .198
2022: .149
So that's a problem. And as he ages, his range will decline, and that means his defense will worsen. So he will likely continue to decline defensively AND in HR production.
His BABIP has gone up though.
2018: .317
2019: .338
2020: .329
2021: .333
2022: .362
Is that sustainable? Here's his hard hit ball %:
2019: 47.3%
2020: 37.0%
2021: 43.1%
2022: 39.6%
Meanwhile, his GB/FB ratio has become much more GB-oriented than it was. So... softer contact, more grounders, less power, but his batted balls are finding holes. So is that sustainable? I worry that it's not. I worry that by 2025 he will be a significantly declined player - maybe still above average, which makes him not useless, but he won't be remotely worth the kind of money he'll be making.
BUT...
He's a homegrown star and we have no guarantee that anyone else they get will be anywhere close to as good as him.
Such a tough call, especially if he asks for a LOT of money on a longer contract.