Offseason Thread - Betty when you call me, you can call me Al

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TripleOT

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If you want to take the best shooting year of Smarts' career as his norm now, I guess you can.

I'd like to see him do it again before claiming that's who he is as a shooter now.

Really weird to compare him as a shooter to Kemba. Who do you think faced more defensive pressure on his shots? The guy who the opponent didn't want to shoot, or the guy the opponent was begging to shoot?
As I pointed out, Smart's dramatic rise in shooting percentage was aided by him being assisted on more makes.

But you are correct. Kemba has to stand on his head to get buckets, being assisted on only 28.5% of his makes, a very low number. I was just using that stat line to attempt to refute an earlier "he can't shoot" post.

I'm also curious to see if Smart can continue to shoot at an acceptable level, especially now that he won't be in a starting line up with all plus three point shooters. That floor spreading also helped Marcus become more efficient at the rim, too.
 

lovegtm

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.422/.364/.806, with a .533 eFG%
.434/.356/.844, with a .511 eFG%

One of those guys can't shoot. The other is about to get $141 million from the Celtics. The one who can't shoot is one of the best defenders in the league.

Hopefully, Smart turned the corner on his shooting, and this past season wasn't a fluke. He was assisted on 69% of his makes this past season, and only 50% the season before. Smart should again benefit by playing next to a good scorer (if Kemba comes here), like he did this past season in the starting lineup with Kyrie.
I like Smart a lot, and I'm bullish on his shooting going forward. But cmon, throwing out 3P% without context (# attempts, what types of 3s they are, etc) is beyond meaningless.

James Harden shot .368/.879 last here. Marcus Smart is as good as James Harden!
 

cheech13

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I'm not sure I understand?

I do think $14-16M/per would be a nice haul for Terry's advanced metrics.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/r/roziete01.html
Regardless of what you think Rozier could make he can't be used in a sign and trade if you're also signing Kemba or another max free agent. You have to renounce him first to make the money work. Also, when S&T comes into play you have to account for Base-year compensation and the apron, which you haven't in your proposed deal. That's a messy trade to make work.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Regardless of what you think Rozier could make he can't be used in a sign and trade if you're also signing Kemba or another max free agent. You have to renounce him first to make the money work. Also, when S&T comes into play you have to account for Base-year compensation and the apron, which you haven't in your proposed deal. That's a messy trade to make work.
Good point about BYC, which effectively cuts in half Rozier's salary from Boston's perspective for salary-matching purposes. So the trade wouldn't work for that reason alone, not to mention all the other reasons people have mentioned.

There is a reason sign-and-trades rarely happen - they get very complicated and require a lot of moving parts to all slot in perfectly.
 

nighthob

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Regardless of what you think Rozier could make he can't be used in a sign and trade if you're also signing Kemba or another max free agent. You have to renounce him first to make the money work. Also, when S&T comes into play you have to account for Base-year compensation and the apron, which you haven't in your proposed deal. That's a messy trade to make work.
Rozier’s cap hold would need to be renounced to finalize a Walker deal, but if Walker were deadest on coming here, as Hayward was a couple of summers ago, he could simply wait a couple of days for Boston to work out all the details.
 

nighthob

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I thought you couldn't pair other players up in a trade with a guy you're signing and trading?

Is that outdated?
I’m not sure what this is in relation to, but Boston could move another salary in a New York trade. The Knicks are under the cap, so Boston could make Rozier and say Yabu to New York as separate deals thus opening up extra cap space for them to get to the full $32.7 million (and this is going to be necessary since they’re just short of the max at the moment).
 

ehaz

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Good point about BYC, which effectively cuts in half Rozier's salary from Boston's perspective for salary-matching purposes. So the trade wouldn't work for that reason alone, not to mention all the other reasons people have mentioned.

There is a reason sign-and-trades rarely happen - they get very complicated and require a lot of moving parts to all slot in perfectly.
Rozier’s BYC if he signs for $14M per is $7M. Add in Jaylen ($6.5) + Yabu ($3M) and you’re already at $16.5M which is enough for Turner ($18M)

But I agree - the logistics are rough because Rozier needs to want Indy since the C’s can’t just match (and the Knicks are goin to give him the max anyways ;)).
 

benhogan

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Regardless of what you think Rozier could make he can't be used in a sign and trade if you're also signing Kemba or another max free agent. You have to renounce him first to make the money work. Also, when S&T comes into play you have to account for Base-year compensation and the apron, which you haven't in your proposed deal. That's a messy trade to make work.
Thanks. NBA Cap rules single-handedly keeping Tylenol in business
 

Cellar-Door

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Rozier’s cap hold would need to be renounced to finalize a Walker deal, but if Walker were deadest on coming here, as Hayward was a couple of summers ago, he could simply wait a couple of days for Boston to work out all the details.
What details? What is the incentive for any team to trade picks for Rozier? Since taking back any player would eliminate the Celtics cap space to sign Kemba, what is the incentive for Rozier to agree to a S&T?

Terry Rozier is not going to be involved in a S&T deal unless the Celtics aren't signing a major free agent, and even then he probably isn't going to be in a S&T deal
 

nighthob

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You might not understand what I’m saying, even with renouncing everyone’s rights they don’t have max space. So their primary motivation is to get the Knicks to agree to eat the last year of Yabu so as to not have to pay Rozier 20+ million per year.
 

Cellar-Door

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You might not understand what I’m saying, even with renouncing everyone’s rights they don’t have max space. So their primary motivation is to get the Knicks to agree to eat the last year of Yabu so as to not have to pay Rozier 20+ million per year.
they have enough space if they renounce. In fact they can keep one of Theis or Wanamaker's holds if they want.

Edit- Also... what does "so as not to have to pay Rozier 20+M per year" mean? Why would Rozier agree to take less, it's deeply counter to his interest to agree to a S&T unless he really wanted to go to a team currently over the cap. Otherwise his incentives are strongly in refusing to do a S&T and taking the best offer he gets
 
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lexrageorge

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You might not understand what I’m saying, even with renouncing everyone’s rights they don’t have max space. So their primary motivation is to get the Knicks to agree to eat the last year of Yabu so as to not have to pay Rozier 20+ million per year.
Let me make sure I am understanding this.

C's have slightly more than $66M in committed salaries, to which they must add Langford and Williams (~$5.8M combined) and 3 minimum roster holds ($2.7M), giving them a total of ~$75M if they renounce everything and everyone, which is enough for a max offer to Walker (maybe $1M-$1.5M to spare).

Now, if the trade is that the Celtics sign-and-trade Rozier (say he'll get $14M from the Knicks) and Yabu ($3.2) first, they get a $7M trade exception. I'm not sure how useful the trade exception will be, as I'm fairly certain they would have to renounce it to sign Walker. But they would still have around $4M or so of cap space, which may allow them to resign Theis for something above the vet minimum or find some other player on the open market.
 

Cellar-Door

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Let me make sure I am understanding this.

C's have slightly more than $66M in committed salaries, to which they must add Langford and Williams (~$5.8M combined) and 3 minimum roster holds ($2.7M), giving them a total of ~$75M if they renounce everything and everyone, which is enough for a max offer to Walker (maybe $1M-$1.5M to spare).

Now, if the trade is that the Celtics sign-and-trade Rozier (say he'll get $14M from the Knicks) and Yabu ($3.2) first, they get a $7M trade exception. I'm not sure how useful the trade exception will be, as I'm fairly certain they would have to renounce it to sign Walker. But they would still have around $4M or so of cap space, which may allow them to resign Theis for something above the vet minimum or find some other player on the open market.
Yeah this is predicated on a bunch of weird stuff.
1. Rozier agreeing to a deal, which he has no incentive to at all
2. Dumping Yabu for no good reason so we can maybe sign someone for just above minimum instead of minimum?
3. The Knicks deciding that they want to take Yabu for free (maybe they would?)

The most logical turn of events is the one that most writers who know the cap expect. They renounce everyone except Theis's RFA rights (including Rozier), they sign Kemba, they then try to bring back Theis , sign someone (likely a big) with the room exception, fill out any remaining roster spots with vets on the minimum.

This explains it well....
https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/6/27/18760112/reset-boston-celtics-cap-sheet-nba-free-agency-kemba-walker-kyrie-irving-al-horford-enes-kanter
 

nighthob

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Let me make sure I am understanding this.

C's have slightly more than $66M in committed salaries, to which they must add Langford and Williams (~$5.8M combined) and 3 minimum roster holds ($2.7M), giving them a total of ~$75M if they renounce everything and everyone, which is enough for a max offer to Walker (maybe $1M-$1.5M to spare).

Now, if the trade is that the Celtics sign-and-trade Rozier (say he'll get $14M from the Knicks) and Yabu ($3.2) first, they get a $7M trade exception. I'm not sure how useful the trade exception will be, as I'm fairly certain they would have to renounce it to sign Walker. But they would still have around $4M or so of cap space, which may allow them to resign Theis for something above the vet minimum or find some other player on the open market.
No, even by renouncing everyone they have around $32.4 million, which is slightly less than max, this means that someone off the active roster either has to be dumped into empty space somewhere or Walker has to agree to a less than max deal with Boston. Boston won't be renouncing anyone unless Walker is willing to sign a deal, so New York can't actually even get Rozier until Boston straightens out their situation.

Now the Knicks might indeed choose to screw up Boston's plans, but unless they think that's getting them Walker or Irving, what's the point? If their front office really does value Rozier as highly as the Post article claims, why wouldn't they want to pay Rozier market rates rather than the bloated salary they'd have to to force him out of Boston? I don't think that Rozier is going to have any problem with taking his talents to the Garden and playing in a huge market, but maybe he's determined to wait and see if there's anyone else willing to bid on him after the fact. But the Kelly Olynyk experience might give his agent pause.

It could well be true that New York's front office is actually governed by a manatee picking up beach balls out of a container, and the beach balls might indeed the Knicks that it's better to pay Terry Rozier 4/84 than market rates (Marcus Smart money) to save themselves the couple of million they'd have to spend on Yabu's buyout. But I suspect that somewhere there's a human being that will figure out that it's better to spend $54-$56 million than $84 million.
 

Cellar-Door

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No, even by renouncing everyone they have around $32.4 million, which is slightly less than max, this means that someone off the active roster either has to be dumped into empty space somewhere or Walker has to agree to a less than max deal with Boston. Boston won't be renouncing anyone unless Walker is willing to sign a deal, so New York can't actually even get Rozier until Boston straightens out their situation.

Now the Knicks might indeed choose to screw up Boston's plans, but unless they think that's getting them Walker or Irving, what's the point? If their front office really does value Rozier as highly as the Post article claims, why wouldn't they want to pay Rozier market rates rather than the bloated salary they'd have to to force him out of Boston? I don't think that Rozier is going to have any problem with taking his talents to the Garden and playing in a huge market, but maybe he's determined to wait and see if there's anyone else willing to bid on him after the fact. But the Kelly Olynyk experience might give his agent pause.

It could well be true that New York's front office is actually governed by a manatee picking up beach balls out of a container, and the beach balls might indeed the Knicks that it's better to pay Terry Rozier 4/84 than market rates (Marcus Smart money) to save themselves the couple of million they'd have to spend on Yabu's buyout. But I suspect that somewhere there's a human being that will figure out that it's better to spend $54-$56 million than $84 million.
I have no idea where you are getting these numbers, if the Celtics renounce everyone they have 34.1M in cap space, every cap expert agrees. If they keep Theis they have appx. 33M in cap space

Edit- here is Bobby Marks- https://twitter.com/TheNBAGround/status/1144229842608508930
Here is Keith Smith- https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/6/27/18760112/reset-boston-celtics-cap-sheet-nba-free-agency-kemba-walker-kyrie-irving-al-horford-enes-kanter

Edit #2- I think I found your problem. You filled out a 15 man roster, you only need 12. It's the guys under contract, plus Williams/Langford/Edwards, and then either an incomplete roster charge of 900k, or more likely Theis' 1.8M hold.
 
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nighthob

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True, they could choose to dump Semi this summer, but unlike Yabu I suspect they still find him useful. It’s better to move the practice body into someone’s cap space. And it’s still easiest stapling him to Rozier. And I suspect that even the Knicks would prefer to spend $54-$56 million for Rozier than $80+ million. But you’re free to argue that the Knicks are eager to spend an extra $25-$30 million for a second round pick.
 

Cellar-Door

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True, they could choose to dump Semi this summer, but unlike Yabu I suspect they still find him useful. It’s better to move the practice body into someone’s cap space. And it’s still easiest stapling him to Rozier. And I suspect that even the Knicks would prefer to spend $54-$56 million for Rozier than $80+ million. But you’re free to argue that the Knicks are eager to spend an extra $25-$30 million for a second round pick.
My number includes Semi, you are bad at math. Also your premise that Rozier takes less in a S&T is dumb.

Edit- Beyond your insistence that the Celtics have less cap than they do, the craziest part of this whole argument is the idea that a player who is a free agent, will not only artifically restrict his market to one team, but that he will then somehow decide it's a good idea to take 25-30M less to do his old team a solid. Rozier knows that the Celtics want Kemba, and he knows that all he has to do to become unrestricted is refuse to do a S&T since the Celtics need him off the books in order to sign the player they want. So what exactly is his incentive to jump on an under-market deal?
 
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OurF'ingCity

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Yeah, there is no way a S&T of Rozier makes sense. If Rozier wants to go to a team under the cap, he'll just go to that team - neither he nor his new team will have any incentive whatsoever to do a S&T because they can just sign Rozier outright. If Rozier wants to go to a team over the cap, he might have some reason to agree to a S&T, but in that scenario it would be the Celtics who wouldn't want to do it because if the other team was over the cap they would need to match salaries with Boston by sending players back, eliminating the possibility of Boston getting a TPE from the exchange.

Edit: Maybe you could make the latter scenario work by adding a third team under the cap who would take players from Rozier's new team and give Boston a TPE, but that gets extremely complicated and requires a lot of cooperation in a short period of time among a number of parties.
 

DJnVa

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Are the Celts irrevocably out of the Al derby?

I would hate him going to the 76ers.
If they want Kemba they are. And without someone like Kemba, it's apparent Al doesn't see them as enough of contenders (not saying with Kemba he does).
 

boca

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So Philly want Al, the Rockets want Jimmy and the Celts want Capela...........
 

HomeRunBaker

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And all accurate, I'm sure. He will deserve everything he gets for almost destroying the franchise.
Heh. As some of the pieces claim the opposite while painting the picture of him being the scapegoat. Cedric Maxwell is one who spends an awful lot of time with the team who has as much if not more access than most of the people writing the Kyrie hit pieces. He stated very strongly that the dysfunction of that team, the one Danny threw together with mismatched parts, went far beyond Kyrie's ability to tear them down.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Heh. As some of the pieces claim the opposite while painting the picture of him being the scapegoat. Cedric Maxwell is one who spends an awful lot of time with the team who has as much if not more access than most of the people writing the Kyrie hit pieces. He stated very strongly that the dysfunction of that team, the one Danny threw together with mismatched parts, went far beyond Kyrie's ability to tear them down.
People will think what they want but pinning the Celtics disappointing season and alleged locker room/chemistry issues on one person just seems overly simplistic on its surface.

How often have we seen sports teams or even other types of organizations who have such a strong culture that even supposed troublemakers become solid citizens? For a recent examples, see Boogie Cousins or even Nick Young on the Warriors. If you want to go back, see guys like Manny Ramirez on the early aughts Red Sox. Or simply think to a place where you've worked that has managed to take a talented but troubled employee and make them a productive member of the group.

Laying the blame at the feet of one or two people is easy and convenient. It isn't typically right though.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
It’s evolution, but, it’s crazy how much specific information has been leaked this early.

They have to had just said “to hell with the tampering fines.” Right? It will be petty if Silver fines someone for Tampering ever again after all this.

Someone should post an actually “Offseason Transaction Thread”

And maybe a new catch all Boston thread soon. This thread’s title is about as clear as the content in it.
 

moondog80

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It’s evolution, but, it’s crazy how much specific information has been leaked this early.

They have to had just said “to hell with the tampering fines.” Right? It will be petty if Silver fines someone for Tampering ever again after all this.

Someone should post an actually “Offseason Transaction Thread”

And maybe a new catch all Boston thread soon. This thread’s title is about as clear as the content in it.
Is it tampering if the guy is already on your team?
 

DJnVa

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Well, Barnes was in Sacramento last season, so I don't think there's much tampering here.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Is it tampering if the guy is already on your team?
It’s only tampering if the player is under contract with another team. The NBA isn’t going to even investigate tampering unless the team who has the player under contract files a formal complaint.

Barnes is a good fit for that roster. I think I had him back there at 4/$80m.
 

ehaz

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https://mobile.twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/1144701600218398721
The Orlando Magic are preparing a four-year offer believed to be in excess of $90 million to their All-Star center Nikola Vucevic in hopes of completing a deal shortly after Sunday's opening bell in free agency, league sources say
4:18 PM · Jun 28, 2019 · Twitter for Android

Well, I’d be surprised if $90M gets it done, but if Orlando does re-sign Vucevic, is there any interest in a Celtics trade for Mo Bamba?

He did not have a good rookie showing, but this could be a chance to buy low on a serious physical talent and as a second year rookie, it would be easy to match salaries.

Was all the smoke about the Celtics’ interest in Bamba during last year’s draft simply media speculation or was there something reliable/actually definitive about Danny’s interest?
 
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