Sure but it’s not like it cost much more than that to have Stanton given away.Sure. 2 guys who might be Dfa'd will get you Realmuto. And Sandy Alcantara, too.
Sure but it’s not like it cost much more than that to have Stanton given away.Sure. 2 guys who might be Dfa'd will get you Realmuto. And Sandy Alcantara, too.
Stanton also has that monster contract tied to him. Realmuto not so much. Other teams would be in on him.Sure but it’s not like it cost much more than that to have Stanton given away.
Cervelli would be the starting NL all star catcher right now. He obviously doesn't have that kind of offensive track record, but they did sign him to a 3 year deal. and he is making them look very smart. Plus they are half a game out and he's making over 10 AAV which the Sox would really have to scramble to get around.If their teams decide to sell, Johnson and Swihart could probably fetch Lucroy or Tyler Flowers. They could maybe fetch Cervelli.
Cervelli seems to be benefiting from a swing change, and is truly mashing. I fully expect the Pirates to fall out of it, but they're a great story right now and I'd love to be wrong.Cervelli would be the starting NL all star catcher right now. He obviously doesn't have that kind of offensive track record, but they did sign him to a 3 year deal. and he is making them look very smart. Plus they are half a game out and he's making over 10 AAV which the Sox would really have to scramble to get around.
I think Swihart has trade value (Johnson less so), but not enough for both of them to get a starting player of consequence. Losing their options kind of killed that.
1. The Blue Jays are contending.we should use our wallets and trade for Russ Martin's remaining contract. great gamecaller with probably still a league average bat. his contract should keep the player cost down, and only signed for one more year.
not sure if they are - or if that would stop their FO from selling anyways.1. The Blue Jays are contending.
2. Russell Martin is owed $20M this year and next.
3. He is 35 and has an 83 wRC+.
Betts, Mooreland, Xander and Holt are probably all due for some regression. It's possible Xander is starting to live up to all his potential though, which would be a huge help. I can also see Ben10 and Devers getting a little better and Pedroia will replace Nunez.The bottom three spots in the Red Sox' lineup have been atrocious.
#7 spot: 10th in the AL with a .604 ops
#8 spot: 14th in the AL with a .479 ops
#9 spot: 8th in the AL with a .583 ops
Yet they're second in all of MLB in runs scored and tied for first in OPS. The Yanks have four guys with 10+ homers but the Sox are only three homers behind them. They actually have a 10-point edge in SLG over NY.
8/9 spot is probably going to stay pretty brutal with the catchers on roster. I do suspect we will see some better hitting out of Vaz/Leon, but not enough to move the needle a lot. The 7 hole should see a big improvement when Pedroia returns.The bottom three spots in the Red Sox' lineup have been atrocious.
#7 spot: 10th in the AL with a .604 ops
#8 spot: 14th in the AL with a .479 ops
#9 spot: 8th in the AL with a .583 ops
Yet they're second in all of MLB in runs scored and tied for first in OPS. The Yanks have four guys with 10+ homers but the Sox are only three homers behind them. They actually have a 10-point edge in SLG over NY.
He's caught 13 innings at the Major League level since his problem with the yips of throwing back to the pitcher. It wouldn't shock me at all if he can't throw to 2b. I mentioned it and other people dismissed it but playing at a minor league level is completely different than a Major league level when it comes to the mental side of the game. I'll believe he can play catcher when he does so at a Major league level.I have to think it’s one of two things with Swihart;
1. Pitchers refuse to throw to him
2. He can’t throw to 2nd base
Why else?
Refuse is a strong word, but it wouldn't surprise me if there was some push back. It's mostly established pitchers on the roster - I'm sure they care much more about who they are comfortable with than getting a little extra offense.I have to think it’s one of two things with Swihart;
1. Pitchers refuse to throw to him
Mean is the word.not sure if they are - or if that would stop their FO from selling anyways.
He does have an 83wRC+ but that's with a .180babip over only about 100pa. Previous 2yrs he was dead on 100wrc+. his last 50pa he's at 112.
and the contract means he won't cost us anything big in assets. (we're over the luxury threshhold already, no?)
oh, and he also plays a mean 3B!
The fact that a .583 OPS out of the 9 spot puts them in the middle of the pack in the AL shows how weak the back end of everyone's lineup is. You can thrive with just one of those guys down there. Three is tough.The bottom three spots in the Red Sox' lineup have been atrocious.
#7 spot: 10th in the AL with a .604 ops
#8 spot: 14th in the AL with a .479 ops
#9 spot: 8th in the AL with a .583 ops
not sure if they are - or if that would stop their FO from selling anyways.
He does have an 83wRC+ but that's with a .180babip over only about 100pa. Previous 2yrs he was dead on 100wrc+. his last 50pa he's at 112.
and the contract means he won't cost us anything big in assets. (we're over the luxury threshhold already, no?)
oh, and he also plays a mean 3B!
Mean is the word.
And there are multiple luxury thresholds and the Sox are up against the next one and it is big.
And what real prospects do we have?ah didn't realize there were such serious penalties above and beyond the main luxury tax level.
maybe we offer them a real prospect for Martin if they eat most of his salary? I think they've leveraged their payroll to add prospects a couple times recently?
3. I said this elsewhere but I also wonder if the team—Dombrowski and Cora—aren’t willing to put Swihart in at catcher until they decide to move on from one of the existing guys. Which is to say they know it’s a bigger deal given the pitchers preferences and aren’t willing to dip their toe into the waters and start a controversy of some sort until they are absolutely sure they’re ready to pull the trigger.I have to think it’s one of two things with Swihart;
1. Pitchers refuse to throw to him
2. He can’t throw to 2nd base
Why else?
I like Austin Barnes, but I'm not sure why the Dodgers would trade a proven major league catcher with four years of control for an unproven one with five.Not sure if the Dodgers would bite, but maybe they could explore a Swihart for Austin Barnes trade. Swihart could backup Grandal and help at the corner OF spots where Puig is currently sitting at a .534 OPS. Barnes has a .407 OBP this season after putting up a .408 OBP in 218 ABs last year. He also has some decent pop, can steal an occasional base, and play some 2B/3B.
Slotting a .400 OBP guy into the ninth slot in front of Mookie? Sign me up yesterday.
(That said, I'm not sure the Sox have the chips to make it happen, as I'd imagine the package would have to be Swihart + prospects.)
http://m.mlb.com/player/605131/austin-barnes?year=2018&stats=career-r-fielding-mlb
heh. this one made me think....and think...and then give up.And what real prospects do we have?
I listened to the first hour of the game on the radio yesterday, and they mentioned Blake was regularly working with Tek on his defense.I've wondered if Swihart is still even working as a catcher and thought having him catch bullpens would be a good way to keep him "sharp" in that regard. They're showing him in the bullpen in Toronto today...during the game.
This is where I’m at. The Red Sox were winning a lot of games to start the season by relying on pitching and the top half of the lineup.3. I said this elsewhere but I also wonder if the team—Dombrowski and Cora—aren’t willing to put Swihart in at catcher until they decide to move on from one of the existing guys. Which is to say they know it’s a bigger deal given the pitchers preferences and aren’t willing to dip their toe into the waters and start a controversy of some sort until they are absolutely sure they’re ready to pull the trigger.
I don't know if it's due or already happened in some way.Betts, Mooreland, Xander and Holt are probably all due for some regression. It's possible Xander is starting to live up to all his potential though, which would be a huge help. I can also see Ben10 and Devers getting a little better and Pedroia will replace Nunez.
I'm fully confident this team could carry a bat like Vazquez all year, I'm not so sure they can carry 2. JBJ or Vaz need to start hitting.
You may be right, but any of those three guys getting warm (let alone hot), or injured, could change that dynamic very quickly. One of those three should be able to establish themselves as an average catcher by the end of the season. The question is which horse do you pick?Sandy Leon really feels like a non-tender candidate at the end of the season. No real point in spending $2 million on a backup catcher who can't hit when you could use a Swihart or get some journeyman FA at minimum salary.
It's actually a rough 4/$21m if you are going to count that club option year.Just absolutely brutal. and we extended him 3 years for 21 mil?? I'm trying to be patient but we're getting close to 1/3 of the season in the books.
Has anybody taken a look at Vazquez' framing numbers for this season? One of the side effects to trying to steal strikes is an increased number of passed balls -- probably a justifiable risk, given the results of past seasons' studies of the run expectancies resulting from stealing a strike from a marginal ball.Vaz has one inexcusable passed ball a game lately. He worked a couple decent counts tonight, got pitches to hit, and grounded weakly to the pitcher twice. I can't recall a solid throw from him on a steal lately.
Just absolutely brutal. and we extended him 3 years for 21 mil?? I'm trying to be patient but we're getting close to 1/3 of the season in the books.
Vaz's framing skills seem to rate slightly above average this year according to this Baseball Prospectus chart, and below average in this one at StatCorner done by analyst Matthew Carruth.Has anybody taken a look at Vazquez' framing numbers for this season? One of the side effects to trying to steal strikes is an increased number of passed balls -- probably a justifiable risk, given the results of past seasons' studies of the run expectancies resulting from stealing a strike from a marginal ball.
I am suggesting that Vazquez could be a net positive for the ballclub because of his framing skills, his poor batting performance notwithstanding. I expect the answer is positive, and the club is probably quite satisfied with locking in Vazquez for years to come.
Yes, his TJ surgery seems to have degraded his throwing arm somewhat, but I haven't lost hope in a generational defensive talent living up to his SoSHbilling.
@iayork or @Jnai , are there any data on catcher framing for 2018?
It may not even be framing - according to SABR, Vazquez and Leon were really freaking good defensively last year. As in the #2 and #3 defensive catchers as well as #10 and #12 fielders respectively in all of baseball. https://sabr.org/sdi/2017-finalI am suggesting that Vazquez could be a net positive for the ballclub because of his framing skills, his poor batting performance notwithstanding. I expect the answer is positive, and the club is probably quite satisfied with locking in Vazquez for years to come.
So two systems looking at the same computerized data get different results. And teams are making decisions to live with a sub 500 OPS based on this? Ah, gotta love the people hired to run baseball teams. I guess the reason they only pay assistant GMs slave wages is to keep the competition down.Vaz's framing skills seem to rate slightly above average this year according to this Baseball Prospectus chart, and below average in this one at StatCorner done by analyst Matthew Carruth.
If you have a definitive mathematical map of the current strike zone as it travels through time across umpires, well, you can probably think about retiring even sooner than you had been planning.So two systems looking at the same computerized data get different results. And teams are making decisions to live with a sub 500 OPS based on this? Ah, gotta love the people hired to run baseball teams. I guess the reason they only pay assistant GMs slave wages is to keep the competition down.
Nobody has a definitive method of measuring that, which is why the various different "statistical measures" are, like most other defensive stats...pretty much bullshit, even moreso the smaller the sample size.If you have a definitive mathematical map of the current strike zone as it travels through time across umpires, well, you can probably think about retiring even sooner than you had been planning.
I like how @iayork calculates his, but that could be pro-SoSH anti-flu bias.
I think this video from last night backs this notion up. Vaz seems to pull his glove inward causing him to just miss an easily catchable ball.One of the side effects to trying to steal strikes is an increased number of passed balls -- probably a justifiable risk, given the results of past seasons' studies of the run expectancies resulting from stealing a strike from a marginal ball.
We'd need to invent new math to calculate the probable incorrectness of this post.Nobody has a definitive method of measuring that, which is why the various different "statistical measures" are, like most other defensive stats...pretty much bullshit, even moreso the smaller the sample size.
There's a reason offense is generally more valued: it can be measured and compared player-to-player. Analyzing defense is like trying to predict the weather.
More probable than not this reply is as useful as defensive analytics.We'd need to invent new math to calculate the probable incorrectness of this post.
And possibly a branch of epistemology to inform the new economics of the wrongness.
This is exactly my point. The way in which these pitch framing stats, and even moreso the (implausibly) large translation of those stats into runs, is currently dominating playing time decisions and contracts is mind-blowing statistical hubris. Every time I seriously evaluate a defensive stat, I almost always see a direct comparison to the bogus plus-minus stats in hockey and basketball, or, for the best ones, maybe I can concede that it is as reliable as runs scored in judging hitters. In the case of framing, The score depends on the pitchers’ repertoire, the pitchers’ command, the umpire, and the hitter, and the catcher. There’s no way you’re actually reliably isolating the catcher in all that without gobs of data. But, then you’re introducing Time into the variables that need to be considered.Nobody has a definitive method of measuring that, which is why the various different "statistical measures" are, like most other defensive stats...pretty much bullshit, even moreso the smaller the sample size.
There's a reason offense is generally more valued: it can be measured and compared player-to-player. Analyzing defense is like trying to predict the weather.