Cheesesteaks vs. Chowdah Part I - The Sixers/Celtics Series Thread

DeJesus Built My Hotrod · Apr 29, 2018

The 76ers season-ending 16 game winning streak started on March 15th. In the two weeks prior to that, they lost to the Bucks in Milwaukee, the Heat in Miami and the Pacers in Philly. Here is the composition of their winning streak:

76ers 117 @ Knicks 110
76ers 129 vs Nets 116
76ers 108 vs Hornets 94
76ers 119 vs Memphis 105
76ers 118 @ Magic 98
76ers 120 vs T-Wolves 108
76ers 123 vs Nuggets 104
76ers 118 vs Knicks 101
76ers 101 @ Hawks 91
76ers 119 @ Hornets 102
76ers 121 vs Nets 95
76ers 115 @ Pistons 108
76ers 130 vs Cavs 130
76ers 109 vs Mavericks 97
76ers 121 @ Hawks 113
76ers 130 vs Bucks 95

Without accounting for back-to-backs for either Philly or their opponents, they won 16 in row by winning 10 at home and six on the road. They won twice against the Knicks (ninth worst team in the league), the Nets (eighth worst team in the league), Hornets (11th worst team in the league) and Hawks (tied for the third worst team in the league). The only teams that they beat during that streak with a winning record were the T-Wolves, Nuggets and Cavs. So eight of their win-streak wins were against tanking teams.

They then beat the Heat in five games though they lost one in Philly.

I don't mean to downplay how good Philly is because they are very talented and very well coached. It is worth noting that the win streak also likely coincided with Brett Brown figuring out how to work in new pieces like Belinelli and Ilyasova so that is a plus - prior to that, Philly was 36-30. However their streak, which involved a lot of weak teams and home cooking, was the reason all the hot-takey NBA pundits jumped on their bandwagon.

In short, while its hard to ignore how well Philadelphia is playing and how the Celtics are hampered without Irving and now Jaylen Brown, there exists a scenario where Boston, who won three of the teams' four meetings, takes this series the distance. And there is a scenario where they win that too by virtue of playing at home.

Neither the odds nor the pundits will favor the Celtics here but this series may not be as lopsided in favor of Philadelphia as it appears.

lovegtm · Apr 29, 2018

DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
The 76ers season-ending 16 game winning streak started on March 15th. In the two weeks prior to that, they lost to the Bucks in Milwaukee, the Heat in Miami and the Pacers in Philly. Here is the composition of their winning streak:

76ers 117 @ Knicks 110
76ers 129 vs Nets 116
76ers 108 vs Hornets 94
76ers 119 vs Memphis 105
76ers 118 @ Magic 98
76ers 120 vs T-Wolves 108
76ers 123 vs Nuggets 104
76ers 118 vs Knicks 101
76ers 101 @ Hawks 91
76ers 119 @ Hornets 102
76ers 121 vs Nets 95
76ers 115 @ Pistons 108
76ers 130 vs Cavs 130
76ers 109 vs Mavericks 97
76ers 121 @ Hawks 113
76ers 130 vs Bucks 95

Without accounting for back-to-backs for either Philly or their opponents, they won 16 in row by winning 10 at home and six on the road. They won twice against the Knicks (ninth worst team in the league), the Nets (eighth worst team in the league), Hornets (11th worst team in the league) and Hawks (tied for the third worst team in the league). The only teams that they beat during that streak with a winning record were the T-Wolves, Nuggets and Cavs. So eight of their win-streak wins were against tanking teams.

They then beat the Heat in five games though they lost one in Philly.

I don't mean to downplay how good Philly is because they are very talented and very well coached. It is worth noting that the win streak also likely coincided with Brett Brown figuring out how to work in new pieces like Belinelli and Ilyasova so that is a plus - prior to that, Philly was 36-30. However their streak, which involved a lot of weak teams and home cooking, was the reason all the hot-takey NBA pundits jumped on their bandwagon.

In short, while its hard to ignore how well Philadelphia is playing and how the Celtics are hampered without Irving and now Jaylen Brown, there exists a scenario where Boston, who won three of the teams' four meetings, takes this series the distance. And there is a scenario where they win that too by virtue of playing at home.

Neither the odds nor the pundits will favor the Celtics here but this series may not be as lopsided in favor of Philadelphia as it appears.

The flip-side is that a lot of that streak was without Embiid. He started to look better and better as the Miami series went on and he shook off rust. The dude is a top 5-10 player right now, plus they have Ben Simmons (top 20) and shooters.

It's hard for me to see how the Celtics take this past 6 games to be honest. I guess it would involve coming up with some answer for Embiid (Baynes?), and Semi shutting down Simmons (who is a much better passer than Giannis). I just don't see where the offense can come from with those guys playing a key role though.

terrynever · Apr 29, 2018

All four Celtics-76ers games were played before Philly added Ilyasova and Belinelli. They totally changed the second unit. Ilyasova provides insurance for Saric on his bad nights and also can play center when Brown goes to his "Ben and four shooters" lineup that gave Miami fits.

To be fair, Belinelli is awful on defense.

LondonSox · Apr 29, 2018

snowmanny said:
I think he means zero upside from a "Sixers fan arguing on a Celtics-centric board"-centric perspective. The Sixers are clearly the favorite; I imagine every pundit on every show and every website will be picking Philly (Ed: in 5 or 6) and they should. The Celtics will have to be pretty hot-shooting and pretty tough and pretty smart in four games - and their opponents the opposite of all that -to pull this off. And if the 76'ers win I'll be pretty pissed off but not surprised.

Yeah I meant purely in terms of discussion etc
If the Celtics lose it will suck but pretty easy to get over, if they win. Phew.

Jed Zeppelin said:
Smart on Embiid, checkmate.

I bet he draws at least one offensive foul guarding embiid and make me punch a wall.

The scoring mentioned is an issue , the Celtics as they are - are offensively limited. On any game Rozier or brown can go off of course but if the sixers keep the pace up and score 110-120 I think that will be tough to match.

I also think that the Celtics half court (which will be vital if you're slowing the game) isn't going to have an easy time. If they run with the sixers I think they don't have the firepower due to the injuries.

I am very interested to see how they play Simmons. If they sag and dare him to shoot that just hasn't worked. But playing tight and physical isn't easy. I would guess they do both and try to confuse him.

Embiid is a bit of an offensive wildcard he was BAD until the last half of game 5, knocking rust off and adjusting to the mask is the assumption but the mask is a problem for him offensively.

Bizarrely he seems to have no issues with it defensively

Jimbodandy · Apr 29, 2018

terrynever said:
Horford draining jumpers from the top of the key and beyond would be a big problem for Philly. Pulling Embiid off the defensive block is important, obviously.

Yeah, they kept Maker out of the lane by staking out Horford in three point land and forsaking that elbow post setup that they like so much with him. And I think that they will do the same with Baynes. He's not the same guy obviously, but we can't have Embiid killing dribble drives. Whoever Embiid is covering is almost certainly going to be 23 feet from the basket.

Jimbodandy · Apr 29, 2018

LondonSox said:
I am very interested to see how they play Simmons. If they sag and dare him to shoot that just hasn't worked. But playing tight and physical isn't easy. I would guess they do both and try to confuse him.

If you watched how they played Milwaukee the last three games, I think you have a preview of their plans for Simmons. They will sag off him and dare him to shoot, but not so far that he can get a head of steam up. And they will sometimes double, sometimes delay help, sometimes fake the help, etc. As you said--try to confuse him.

Most important of all, they will commit to stopping the transition game. That's easier said than done of course, but it's not like we haven't faced that problem recently (successfully in game 7)...

lovegtm · Apr 29, 2018

Jimbodandy said:
Most important of all, they will commit to stopping the transition game. That's easier said than done of course, but it's not like we haven't faced that problem recently (successfully in game 7)...

The Cs REALLY packed the paint in transition in Game 7. Unfortunately, Philly has much better shooters, more of them, and Simmons is deadly at finding them on the run.

LondonSox · Apr 30, 2018

Jimbodandy said:
If you watched how they played Milwaukee the last three games, I think you have a preview of their plans for Simmons. They will sag off him and dare him to shoot, but not so far that he can get a head of steam up. And they will sometimes double, sometimes delay help, sometimes fake the help, etc. As you said--try to confuse him.

Most important of all, they will commit to stopping the transition game. That's easier said than done of course, but it's not like we haven't faced that problem recently (successfully in game 7)...

I think that is a mistake. That is what the heat did in game 1 and what everyone did at first but it just gives him freedom to pass, and now they have 4 shooters or 3 and embiid (esp Redick and Balinelli) and they all move a lot and spot up and make cuts it's hard to keep up and one slip and Simmons passes it.
If they play that well they turn it into screens for the drive and Simmons with a head of steam at his size and speed is really hard to stop with the spacing.

You guys I know discussed this with rondo, the passing lanes because people sagged so much.

I think he'll mix it up the coverage as I say but I'd bet on closer than you are suggesting.
Giannis is a much much better scorer than Ben but not remotely the passing threat so I think it's not quite the same gameplan.

LondonSox · Apr 30, 2018

Oh and btw I have an over under on Marcus smart drawing Ben Simmons offensive fouls, specifically ones where he flops on Simmons using his elbow to clear space as
4.5
And my wall having 2.5 dents

JakeRae · Apr 30, 2018

I think Smart is the best defensive option for Simmons. He is strong enough to defend him on the block and also has the footwork and quickness to not sag without letting him penetrate at will. Since Simmons cannot shoot, the height difference isn't a huge liability.

benhogan · Apr 30, 2018

terrynever said:
All four Celtics-76ers games were played before Philly added Ilyasova and Belinelli. They totally changed the second unit. Ilyasova provides insurance for Saric on his bad nights and also can play center when Brown goes to his "Ben and four shooters" lineup that gave Miami fits.

To be fair, Belinelli is awful on defense.

I think those two are difference makers. Great job by Colangelo.

Sixers only played 1 home game versus the Celtics this year (the other was in London). Plus the Celtics had Kyrie for those games. Also after that London game, where the Sixers blew a 22pt lead, Philly stood 19-20. They deserve a ton of credit, regardless of their schedule down the stretch, for attaining the 3 seed.

Celtics added Monroe since they played and not sure he can add much value in this series. Maybe muscle JoJo a bit. I think Danny may have whiffed with Moose (mea culpa here, I liked the idea of picking up Monroe. Credit to HRB for not liking the move)

Think we lose Game 1, without Brown, we'll be too offensively challenged. Then teams hold serve on their home courts. Sixers win it in 6. As long as Lebron doesn't go to the finals I'm fine with Toronto or Philly getting their doors blown off by the Rockets or Warriors.

We're playing with house money at this stage (and have all season without Hayward). Maybe Brad can pull off some more magic but want to start preparing for the worst.

Celtics all the way in '19!

Eddie Jurak · Apr 30, 2018

Defending Simmons, Embiid, and Philly's 3-point shooters is what the Celtics need to do. That probably means defending Simmons and Embiid 1-on-1. Some combination of Baynes and Horford on Embiid and Horford, Ojeleye, and Smart on Simmons.

Offensively, I think the keys for the Celtics will be Horford and Rozier. Horford because the half court offense needs to run through him and when he's at C he needs to pull Embiid out to the perimeter by knocking down 3s. Rozier because he's the Celtics' scorer who the Sixers don't really have the right matchup for. The Celtics will need all of their scorers to get it done, of course, but Rozier is the one who will have some opportunity.

BaseballJones · Apr 30, 2018

LondonSox said:
Yeah I meant purely in terms of discussion etc
If the Celtics lose it will suck but pretty easy to get over, if they win. Phew.

Yeah but honestly, if the Sixers make the ECF, why would you give two craps about a discussion group?

When fully healthy, the Celtics are a better team than Philly. But the Celtics are not even close to fully healthy. That's how it goes. I'd rather the Celtics beat the Sixers with Embiid fully healthy and active, but if he got re-injured and the Celtics squeaked by in seven with Embiid in street clothes, I wouldn't be upset about it. I'd just say, tough break for Philly, and I'd move on. Injuries are part of the game.

The Sixers should win this series, even without HCA. They're healthy and they're really really playing well. If Brown returns in good shape it will be a dogfight. If he doesn't, the Celtics are in deep trouble. Again, that's just part of the deal.

I'm really looking forward to the next 5+ years of old-school Boston-Philly rivalry, with both teams being packed with stars. It's going to be very fun.

TheoShmeo · Apr 30, 2018

I agree with the sentiment that this series is a classic house money situation. Especially with Brown out for game 1 (presumably) and unlikely to be miraculously himself, if and when he actually does return, the Cs are quite depleted, the Sixers are deep and talented, and the Sixers are the hottest team in the NBA right now. That said, I like that the Celtics players know what is being said about them, have a lot of pride, have an incredible HC and are likely to play above expectations. I have trouble imagining how that all translates into four wins, and it being over in five games would not really surprise me, sadly.

Regardless, by any measure, this season has been a huge success. Brown, Tatum and Rozier all got much more playing time and responsibility than they otherwise would have, and Marcus Morris proved to be a better pick-up than most would have imagined. Horford has been great in the playoffs and continues to show that his detractors are uninformed. So while a loss in this series would suck, and I truly despise all Philadelphia teams and a huge swath of their annoying fan base, from an overall Celtics perspective, it would be quite manageable. The future is exceptionally bright and I'm very excited to see what moves Danny will make before next season begins, and will be cautiously reading the reports on the health of the two mega stars.

Red Averages · Apr 30, 2018

Not even a thought, you take #1 and do whatever it takes to acquire season tickets for the next 10 years.

Red Averages · Apr 30, 2018

Back on topic - Tatum is the real wild card this series. It seems like he should be able to have some advantages on offense, the question will be if he stays aggressive or passive.

Soxfan in Fla · Apr 30, 2018

Eddie Jurak said:
Defending Simmons, Embiid, and Philly's 3-point shooters is what the Celtics need to do. That probably means defending Simmons and Embiid 1-on-1. Some combination of Baynes and Horford on Embiid and Horford, Ojeleye, and Smart on Simmons.

Offensively, I think the keys for the Celtics will be Horford and Rozier. Horford because the half court offense needs to run through him and when he's at C he needs to pull Embiid out to the perimeter by knocking down 3s. Rozier because he's the Celtics' scorer who the Sixers don't really have the right matchup for. The Celtics will need all of their scorers to get it done, of course, but Rozier is the one who will have some opportunity.

I think you guard Embiid and Simmons 1 on 1 and let them beat you. Those 2 are only making 2 pointers. Don’t let Philly’s 3 point arsenal get going. I think it’s the only shot at having much of a chance with all the injuries.

Boston at full health is better but it would have a chance at being an epic 6-7 game series. I’m afraid Philly takes this in 5, maybe 6, with a couple games being blowouts.

Hopefully these 2 squads are healthy and in the ECF next season.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Apr 30, 2018

With the caveat that I'm pretty sure it isn't possible, but would be funny if DA signed Jabari Bird to a NBA contract and pulled him off the shelf since he was so successful in chasing Reddick the first time the games played.

Since the 76ers are going to be able to find matchups that they like - for example, what do the Cs do when Rozier is switched onto Simmons, the only way the Cs stay competitive IMO is if they can figure our some matchups on the other end that they can consistently exploit. As noted above, MaMo is going to have to score consistently but they are also going to have to get some consistent bench scoring from somewhere else.

Monroe will be given playing time particularly in Game 1 but if I don't know who he guards against the 76ers world lineup. In fact, I think Monroe's first minutes will be banging against Embiid and see if he can do anything on the offensive end against him.

At the end of the day, Brad has been masterful in figuring out how to maximize his matchups. I don't think it makes a difference in this series, but no one thought Butler had a chance against Duke either!

Jimbodandy · Apr 30, 2018

Monroe will have to get minutes in this series. Philly has a real center. I don't like that either, but he'll at least be needed for his six fouls.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 30, 2018

LondonSox said:
I think that is a mistake. That is what the heat did in game 1 and what everyone did at first but it just gives him freedom to pass, and now they have 4 shooters or 3 and embiid (esp Redick and Balinelli) and they all move a lot and spot up and make cuts it's hard to keep up and one slip and Simmons passes it.
If they play that well they turn it into screens for the drive and Simmons with a head of steam at his size and speed is really hard to stop with the spacing.

You guys I know discussed this with rondo, the passing lanes because people sagged so much.

I think he'll mix it up the coverage as I say but I'd bet on closer than you are suggesting.
Giannis is a much much better scorer than Ben but not remotely the passing threat so I think it's not quite the same gameplan.

^^^^This.

Simmons feeds off his defender not guarding him. It plays right into Ben's hands by allowing him the ability to best utilize angles with his dribble to get to his spot while supplying him the vision to not have any of his passes contested.

To me it's the most ridiculous and inefficient way to defend this player.

TripleOT · Apr 30, 2018

If Boston had their full roster, they win in 5 games. If Boston had the roster they played the majority of the year with, they win in 5 or 6 games. If Boston can push the series to 6 games without Brown, that would be an heroic effort.

This Celtics team just got done proving skeptics wrong. If they can steal the game tonight, and get Brown back for game 2, they could possibly do it again. Tatum is going to have to be a 22 ppg scorer, Rozier has to put up 20 every game (or every win, like he did in three of four wins against the Bucks),, and Horford has got to put in big scoring nights, especially by hitting the threeball.

They need to keep the Sixers under 100 points these first two games to hold home court.

Red Averages · Apr 30, 2018

I think people are massively overestimating the 76ers, but we'll find out soon. Their game is all about out scoring the other team, not to be confused with scoring the most points as that's the goal of the sport. It wouldn't shock me if the Celtics can hold them <100 points. It'll be tough, but if they can do that we'll have a great series. There will definitely be a game/games where they go off shooting and put up 110+, but let's see how they adjust to getting the best defensive lineup the Celtics could put out there. As we saw in the Bucks series here are the Bucks point totals over the 7 games: 107, 106, 116, 104, 87, 97, 96. Need to find a way to mimic that, while being aggressive on offense to create some quality shots. 76ers defense doesn't really scare me.

Marbleheader · Apr 30, 2018

I'll be extremely impressed if the Celtics can win this with both hands tied behind their back and one good leg. It's a superstar league and the Sixers have the only two in this series. It's going to be Giannis x 2 from an officiating perspective. Taking it to 6 games with this group would be impressive.

Eddie Jurak · Apr 30, 2018

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
Monroe will be given playing time particularly in Game 1 but if I don't know who he guards against the 76ers world lineup. In fact, I think Monroe's first minutes will be banging against Embiid and see if he can do anything on the offensive end against him.

I imagine the approach will be to concede the outside shot to Embiid.

Jimbodandy · Apr 30, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
^^^^This.

Simmons feeds off his defender not guarding him. It plays right into Ben's hands by allowing him the ability to best utilize angles with his dribble to get to his spot while supplying him the vision to not have any of his passes contested.

To me it's the most ridiculous and inefficient way to defend this player.

If they pick him up at the three point line, he'll go for 30+ every game mostly on layups.

What's the right answer?

Light-Tower-Power · Apr 30, 2018

Think we get some hack-a-Simmons in this series?

LondonSox · Apr 30, 2018

He shot in the mid 70s in the heat series and was better in the second half so that might give pause unless it's a deep hole.

I'd do hack a Ben if you need to slow the game to a crawl.

LondonSox · Apr 30, 2018

And the right answer is (Imo) let him get 30+ if he can, with a handful of assists, vs 20 with assists getting everyone going

HomeRunBaker · Apr 30, 2018

Jimbodandy said:
If they pick him up at the three point line, he'll go for 30+ every game mostly on layups.

What's the right answer?

There is a happy medium that most teams don't utilized consistently. Simmons does most of his creating and passing well inside the 3-point line when he isn't defended aggressively or hardly ever doubled to get the ball out of his hands before the offensive set develops. Coaches are deciding to let him shoot but all that is doing is allowing him to utilize his dribble to get to the rim or force rotations that free up the 3-point shooters. It's a flawed strategy imo.

You don't need to play up on him 25-feet from the basket......but you must prevent him from getting to his sweet spot at 15-feet and in.

Sam Ray Not · Apr 30, 2018

Marbleheader said:
I'll be extremely impressed if the Celtics can win this with both hands tied behind their back and one good leg. It's a superstar league and the Sixers have the only two in this series. It's going to be Giannis x 2 from an officiating perspective. Taking it to 6 games with this group would be impressive.

Eh, I'm not convinced Simmons or Embiid is a better player than Al Horford right now. Did Horford not just outplay Superstar Giannis over the course of a seven-game series? At this time of year I think "playoff experience matters" is as relevant a truism as "it's a superstar league." The playoff-battle-tested cores of the Celtics, Cavs, Warriors, Rockets have amply demonstrated that so far this playoffs (with deep-bench-dweller Tristan Thompson's performance yesterday the latest example).

Of course, the Sixers have a couple of playoff-battle-tested vets in Redick and Belinelli, and the Cs have their share of green young'uns, but overall I'm not sure the Sixers' core is as savvy and mentally tough as that of the Celtics. They've been riding high the last couple months, but I'd like to see how they respond to a punch in the mouth from a really good team. Should be the chippiest and most hotly contested of the four quarterfinals (I guess depending on how tough a fight you think the LeBrons will put up against the Raptors).

terrynever · Apr 30, 2018

Before I head into the bunker, just wanted to say, this has been a very informed discussion in advance of a showdown that will put us all in a foul mood for the next fortnight.

Sam Ray Not · Apr 30, 2018

LondonSox said:
He shot in the mid 70s in the heat series and was better in the second half so that might give pause unless it's a deep hole. I'd do hack a Ben if you need to slow the game to a crawl.

He was actually a bit worse from the stripe post all-star game than before (.549 v. .565). But yeah, he was a solid .714 in the first round (in a small 35 fta sample), and IIRC 55% is roughly the cut-off where a hack-a strategy stops being useful, so I imagine we won't see much if any of it — unless, as you note, it's to slow the pace of the game.

Red Averages · Apr 30, 2018

Any thoughts on the Celtics potentially using the 2-3 zone tonight? Could allow them to hide some bad defensive match ups at times. I know they tried it briefly vs. the Bucks before Dellavedova ruined that decision.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Apr 30, 2018

HomeRunBaker said:
You don't need to play up on him 25-feet from the basket......but you must prevent him from getting to his sweet spot at 15-feet and in.

Hmm, defending a guy that will wreak havoc if he gets into the paint; where have I seen the Cs do that before?

The more I think about it (which, admittedly, is not a lot), the more I think that defending MIL and PHI won't be that dissimilar. They have to play Simmons out on the perimeter like they did Giannis and they have to play Embiid on the post like they did Giannis when he was in the post. And when PHI plays small ball with Simmons, well do the lineups really look that much different as when Giannis was at the 5?

The Cs are going to have to stop PHI in transition, that's a given. But if PHI shoots 53% and 41.5% from 3P (as MIL did at home), they don't have a chance. MIL shot 47.7% and 33.7% from 3P at the Garden; BOS has to get there or even better to stay competitive.

chilidawg · Apr 30, 2018

BSJ with a nice write-up about the series. They like the Celtics chances, assuming Brown is back for game 2.

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2018/04/30/scouting-sixers-celtics-realistic-chance-pull-off-upset/

bakahump · Apr 30, 2018

Can Smart effectively guard Simmons?

JakeRae · Apr 30, 2018

Sam Ray Not said:
He was actually a bit worse from the stripe post all-star game than before (.549 v. .565). But yeah, he was a solid .714 in the first round (in a small 35 fta sample), and IIRC 55% is roughly the cut-off where a hack-a strategy stops being useful, so I imagine we won't see much if any of it — unless, as you note, it's to slow the pace of the game.

I think the more likely approach is to play him very physically and not to err toward hard fouls on shots as opposed to clean looks. Simmons scoring efficiency in the regular season was basically the same at the line v. the floor, so erring toward contact doesn't give up extra points. At the same time, it cuts down on offensive rebound opportunities and has the potential to wear out Simmons by forcing him to constantly play through contact.

Miami tried that, but Miami had fewer options to throw at Simmons. The Celtics can mix and match with all of Baynes, Horford, Tatum, Morris, Semi, and Smart taking turns on Simmons and Brown too once heathy. That's a lot of guys that can afford to waste a foul or two making his life difficult. In contrast, the Heat were a lot more limited because their bigs lacked the quickness and footwork to stay in front of him and their smalls lacked the physicality. Rozier, Larkin, and Monroe are really the only guys the Celtics have given minutes to who simply cannot match up on Simmons.

For me the big question is if we can consistently contest their threes. The Celtics were the best defensive team against the three in the league this year. They didn't look that great contesting Milwaukee's threes, particularly before Smart's return, in the first round. Against Philly, they will need to be aggressive closing out and contesting shooters for 48 minutes to avoid Philly putting together three-fueled runs. That's particularly true in Game 1 where we are unlikely to have enough offense to win a shoot out.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Apr 30, 2018

JakeRae said:
For me the big question is if we can consistently contest their threes. The Celtics were the best defensive team against the three in the league this year. They didn't look that great contesting Milwaukee's threes, particularly before Smart's return, in the first round. Against Philly, they will need to be aggressive closing out and contesting shooters for 48 minutes to avoid Philly putting together three-fueled runs. That's particularly true in Game 1 where we are unlikely to have enough offense to win a shoot out.

With respect to the bolded, if you take out Khris Middleton's unfathomable 25-41 (.610; by comparison, KM only shot .737% from the line), MIL only shot .338 from 3P land. Fortunately, 76ers doesn't have anyone like Middleton - slashing wing creator who has a great arsenal of mid-range moves but also shoots effectively from deep.

HomeRunBaker · Apr 30, 2018

chilidawg said:
BSJ with a nice write-up about the series. They like the Celtics chances, assuming Brown is back for game 2.

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2018/04/30/scouting-sixers-celtics-realistic-chance-pull-off-upset/

That's one heck of an assumption for a Grade-1 hammy. One thing we've got going for us is nobody is giving us a chance (Philly is -420 for the series in some places) and that plays right into the hands of a scrappy undermanned bunch giving and overconfident team trouble.

I feel the Sixers will have their hands full in at least one of these first two games before the top end talent takes control of the series.

JCizzle · Apr 30, 2018

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
With respect to the bolded, if you take out Khris Middleton's unfathomable 25-41 (.610; by comparison, KM only shot .737% from the line), MIL only shot .338 from 3P land. Fortunately, 76ers doesn't have anyone like Middleton - slashing wing creator who has a great arsenal of mid-range moves but also shoots effectively from deep.

I was very impressed by Middleton. I knew he was a good player, but he really punished the Celtics when given the opportunity. Some/most of that is coaching to create the mismatch, but he kept coming up big.

Jimbodandy · Apr 30, 2018

JCizzle said:
I was very impressed by Middleton. I knew he was a good player, but he really punished the Celtics when given the opportunity. Some/most of that is coaching to create the mismatch, but he kept coming up big.

Yep. Have seen him before and knew that he was a good player, but damn. He was just nasty.

LondonSox · Apr 30, 2018

I don't know I agree that Miami had less options to throw at Simmons, they are a deep wing team with a lot of physical althetes.

LondonSox · Apr 30, 2018

Jimbodandy said:
Yep. Have seen him before and knew that he was a good player, but damn. He was just nasty.

I don't fully understand why he was so open so often, I can only assume gameplan, but an odd one when they have only two good options

JakeRae · Apr 30, 2018

LondonSox said:
I don't know I agree that Miami had less options to throw at Simmons, they are a deep wing team with a lot of physical althetes.

Who besides James Johnson, Richardson, and Winslow had both the size and strength to defend him? Ellington and their starting guards were too small (most guards are, Smart is special and Brown isn't really a guard). Olynyk and Whiteside either lack the athleticism or the skills. I don't think Bam could matchup. I get that the Heat are a tough, physical team but they are also much less positionally versatile than the Celtics.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Apr 30, 2018

JakeRae said:
Who besides James Johnson, Richardson, and Winslow had both the size and strength to defend him? Ellington and their starting guards were too small (most guards are, Smart is special and Brown isn't really a guard). Olynyk and Whiteside either lack the athleticism or the skills. I don't think Bam could matchup. I get that the Heat are a tough, physical team but they are also much less positionally versatile than the Celtics.

I didn't see a ton of the MIA-PHI series but didn't really see Johnson match up on Simmons much and didn't see Bam do it at all.

I didn't know this but MIA was tied or ahead at the half of all five games. However, the 76ers just ran them out of the building in the second halfs (usually third quarters). A lot of that had to do with PHI had a huge rebounding edge; also, from what little I saw it seemed that Simmons was getting wherever he wanted and the resulting passes (and offensive rebounds) left MIA really out of position.

Cs got to rebound, that's for sure.

LondonSox · Apr 30, 2018

JakeRae said:
Who besides James Johnson, Richardson, and Winslow had both the size and strength to defend him? Ellington and their starting guards were too small (most guards are, Smart is special and Brown isn't really a guard). Olynyk and Whiteside either lack the athleticism or the skills. I don't think Bam could matchup. I get that the Heat are a tough, physical team but they are also much less positionally versatile than the Celtics.

Fair I guess but others could in a pinch but that's three. I think the Celtics have a similar realistic number right?
Semi, brown and smart? Tatum in a pinch but I'd think Simmons is too strong.

I do agree smart is a big deal for you guys. If he were to struggle I think that would be bad news.

And yes the rebounding is a big deal, the sixers are freaking tall and long. Even the Simmons plus 4 (no embiid) has 3-4 guys who are 6'9" plus (Covington, saric, ersan and Ben himself).
That's a silly amount of length in a "small ball style" lineup.
When embiid is in you have him of course.

Saric and ersan are very good offensive rebounders and if Boston plays slow they can hang in for boards instead of sprinting back.

I really don't think the sixers have a good defender vs a Rozier on fire type, so that's for sure something to look out for.

I'm pretty shocked brown could remotely play tonight, if he does and retweeks I think any shot on the series is gone. Seems a big early risk if true.

benhogan · Apr 30, 2018

LondonSox said:
Fair I guess but others could in a pinch but that's three. I think the Celtics have a similar realistic number right?
Semi, brown and smart? Tatum in a pinch but I'd think Simmons is too strong.

Al Horford can, has and will cover Simmons in the halfcourt.

So many people around here have missed this, Horford was the main coverage on Simmons when they played. Its as if people didn't watch their games.

Cheesesteaks vs. Chowdah Part I - The Sixers/Celtics Series Thread

Well-Known Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Robert the Deuce

Member

Member

Member

Robert the Deuce

Robert the Deuce

Member

Granite Truther

canderson-lite

ivanvamp

Skrub's sympathy case

Member

owes you $50

owes you $50

Member

Member

Member

Member

bet squelcher

Member

owes you $50

Moderator

canderson-lite

Member

ask me about My Pillow

Robert the Deuce

Robert the Deuce

bet squelcher

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

owes you $50

Member

Member

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

bet squelcher

Member

Member

Robert the Deuce

Robert the Deuce

Member

Member

Robert the Deuce

Granite Truther