Who the hell is "Fortinette"Just bottle up Fortinette and Yeldon and Pats win pretty easily.
Surprisingly, Fournette only averaged 3.9 yards per carry but we all know that's misleading.
Who the hell is "Fortinette"Just bottle up Fortinette and Yeldon and Pats win pretty easily.
And our O-line is, well, not. Pats deserve to be favored (9.5 seems reasonable), but Jacksonville isn’t to be taken lightly.Anyone who thinks this game's gonna be easy is pretty mistaken. The Jax defensive line is so damn good.
Oh, it's not smoke and mirrors. They're a super talented unit and probably the best defense in the NFL. My contention is simply that they're not some immovable object, as was shown today.It should be eerie. Tom Coughlin works for them as the head of football operations. I'm surprised by the general/unusual overconfidence here, which also typically predates a Patriots loss. Be scared.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/12/sports/football/tom-coughlin-jacksonville-jaguars-playoffs.html
I like your concluding sentence, which is spot on. On paper, the patriots should be favored for many reasons, most of all that they are playing at home. The current NFL, generally speaking, favors passing offenses over everything else. Furthermore, there's good reason to suspect that most of the AFC is weak this year -- the Jaguars do play six games against the titans, colts, and houston.
Nevertheless, I do take issue with the idea that the Jags D thrives on turnovers and sacks. It's a true shutdown defense that usually tires by the second half. The passing defense gives up 0.5 ANYA more in the second half of games.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/opp.htm
As a passing defense, this unit has few weaknesses. They are fifth in opposing TD%, 1st in unadjusted yards per attempt, 2nd in sacks sack rate and sack yards, 4th in opposing attempts, 1st in completions and completion rate, 1st in yards per game, and yes, 1st in INT%. They're adjusted net yards per attempt is more than 2 lower than the league median, and 0.2 lower than the vaunted 2000 ravens defense.
One may suspect that the Jags weakness is in the running game, where they allow a muscular 4.4 YPA. However, running defenses have a lot less variance than passing defenses. The Jags are the only team to prevent scores on more than 75 percent of drives. They perform better than the patriots in red zone defense (39.3 percent of scoring), and are 4th in 3rd down conversion rate (33.6%). The average opposing drive lasts 2 minutes and 17 seconds, and averages 1.19 points a drive.
The real weakness is likely in special teams, where the Jaguars are mediocre, allowing teams to start on the 28 on average. Nevertheless, it is hard to argue that this passing defense is smoke and mirrors.
It was -6.5 last night in the Vegas line if the matchup happenedWhat would the spread have been against the Steelers? Not -9.5. Vegas knows a thing or two, this is the easier matchup by far.
If you believe that the Steelers lost because they looked past the Jags to the Patriots, the Jags should probably be focusing on New England now instead of showing up the team they just beat... (I don't think it matters, personally)Tim BenzVerified account @TimBenzPGH 4m4 minutes ago
Jaguar players yelling for Mike mitchell as they entered the locker room. Bunch of guys screaming in the locker room: "Go ahead Le’Veon! Retire."
FTR. Good call by RomoI was a bit surprised to hear Romo tonight forecasting a three-point game tomorrow, either way, with Bortles having the game in his hand at the end. Romo thinks Jags tougher matchup than Steelers for the Pats.
Yes, and his admonition about the JAGs possibly being the tougher matchup needs to be taken seriously.FTR. Good call by Romo
The Jags only had 8 sacks in the last 4 games including today. They are a fundamentally sound defense but like the Steelers (who actually had more sacks in the season) later in the season they weren’t great at putting pressure on the QBYes, and his admonition about the JAGs possibly being the tougher matchup needs to be taken seriously
The Pats’ o-line needs to be taken to the woodshed by Scar and B.B. in advance of the game. It has to be squared away, or the offense could collapse.
Yeah ... no, that's too simplistic a comparison to make. Jags are talking the excitement of the moment. Coughlin and Marrone will have them buttoned up starting tomorrowIf you believe that the Steelers lost because they looked past the Jags to the Patriots, the Jags should probably be focusing on New England now instead of showing up the team they just beat... (I don't think it matters, personally)
We don’t have to.Have to play mistake free football.
100% agree. PArt of moving on is psychological "See ya later" or "f*** you" to the guys you just beat.Guys have been through an entire week on Steeler prep, they are pumped to beat them. By the time I type this they will be on to the Pats.Yeah ... no, that's too simplistic a comparison to make. Jags are talking the excitement of the moment. Coughlin and Marrone will have them buttoned up starting tomorrow
The hated team will get way more eyeballs, although the Super Bowl is traditionally not matchup dependent.Well, America has a hell of a choice now—the hated Pats or the Jags in the Super Bowl.
Came here to post this. Guessing we'll see a lot of Lewis/White action with Gronk/Dola in the middle and Cooks/Hogan stretching the field. The key, as always, will be if the O-line can generate enough time for that to work, otherwise we'll be in the quick pass routine.Worth noting that JAX is 20th in DVOA vs. TE and 15th vs. RB.
Making Ramsay and Bouye spectators wouldn't be a bad strategy.
Pressures worry me as much as sacks. Nobody handles interior pressure particularly well, and that went a long way to accounting for our more notable playoff losses.The Jags only had 8 sacks in the last 4 games including today. They are a fundamentally sound defense but like the Steelers (who actually had more sacks in the season) later in the season they weren’t great at putting pressure on the QB
Unfortunately, easier said than done. Maybe not 14 points, but the Patriots quite likely could have 1-2 turnovers next week. This is a very turnover-happy defense, and in Brady's 9 playoff losses, he's had turnovers in 7 of them. In fact, in those 7 games, he's had a total of 12 interceptions and fumbled 4 times.Don’t gift wrap 14 points to them like the Steelers did and they should be fine.
It will be interesting to see if they use Ramsey on Gronk at all. He’s clearly their biggest passing threat and he played some safety in college. Keep Bouye outside on Cooks.Worth noting that JAX is 20th in DVOA vs. TE and 15th vs. RB.
Making Ramsay and Bouye spectators wouldn't be a bad strategy.
Despite the big plays they gave up today, I’m a bit scared of taking too many shots downfield to Cooks when the offense might otherwise be rolling with the short and medium stuff again.Came here to post this. Guessing we'll see a lot of Lewis/White action with Gronk/Dola in the middle and Cooks/Hogan stretching the field. The key, as always, will be if the O-line can generate enough time for that to work, otherwise we'll be in the quick pass routine.
Thankfully outside of a few terrible turnovers, it will be very hard for the Jags to run the field on the Pats D multiple times and score TDs on their own.
This is one game where I don't really worry if the WRs are taken away. The Pats can absolutely move the ball and score with Gronk, Lewis, and White as their primary receiving threats, and the Jags don't have great options matching up with them.Don’t gift wrap 14 points to them like the Steelers did and they should be fine. Should be a big base defense day stacking the box on Fournette. Spy Bortles on 3rd downs. Their receivers outside of Lee aren’t anything special.
Defensively, they’re obviously really good. Bell was good in the passing game so maybe White/Lewis can be too. Screens would be big this week to take advantage of their rush. I’m afraid of Ramsey and Buoye bodying up Hogan and Cooks so maybe they’ll use more bunch formations to avoid jams.
That is great news—I want no part of Cameron Fleming logging more than a few snaps, to say nothing of the significantly larger number of plays they’d be forced to leave Gronk or Allen on the line to block.I just read on BSJ that Waddles injury is a “minor knee sprain.” No word on Jonathan Jones.
Yeah, god knows we need Dwayne Allen out there running routes. Fleming was perfectly fine as a starter down the stretch, I'd give him a little more credit.That is great news—I want no part of Cameron Fleming logging more than a few snaps, to say nothing of the significantly larger number of plays they’d be forced to leave Gronk or Allen on the line to block.
Totally agree, when Cam was in there, I didn't notice any extra pressure. He can do the job.Yeah, god knows we need Dwayne Allen out there running routes. Fleming was perfectly fine as a starter down the stretch, I'd give him a little more credit.
Yes--he did all right, but Jacksonville's line is a little better than Tennessee's, and Fleming's had more bad games than good ones. I'd be very concerned about a playoff game in which he's playing the bulk of the snaps at right tackle.Yeah, god knows we need Dwayne Allen out there running routes. Fleming was perfectly fine as a starter down the stretch, I'd give him a little more credit.
I took the family to a joint practice with the Jags. Cooks abused his man and after seeing their issues with Brown maybe this will be the Cooks show.Pats had joint summer practices with the Jags and a preseason game with them so they will be up to speed with their personnel. Scouting and game planning will be a bit easier. It's very hard to see Bortles on the road against a BB team getting it done in the playoffs but Mark Sanchez did it so who knows.