ESPN's Mr. Belding has tweeted "Based on what I heard from people inside Patriots at SB and those familiar with their approach, I'm not expecting (Jimmy Garropolo) to be traded."
Polian was right!plant a story he's not going to be traded, its one way of driving the market north
As he should be.If Chicago offers #3 and #35, is he confident the Pats don't deal him? I'll hang up and listen, Ed.
Seriously, if a few teams see him as 'the guy' and pony up primo picks he's gone.
And with the 35th pick, select a back up QB.If Chicago offers #3 and #35, is he confident the Pats don't deal him? I'll hang up and listen, Ed.
Seriously, if a few teams see him as 'the guy' and pony up primo picks he's gone.
Nah. Part of the reason there's this level of interest is that the quarterbacks in this draft aren't well-regarded. Go for a vet backup, and hope Brissett beats that guy out during the yearAnd with the 35th pick, select a back up QB.
It was more a joke on how unpredictable BB is in drafting. No one saw the Jimmy G pick coming either.Nah. Part of the reason there's this level of interest is that the quarterbacks in this draft aren't well-regarded. Go for a vet backup, and hope Brissett beats that guy out during the year
A good point. Do the GMs potentially involved here have a two or three year timeline to do that though?I will be surprised if the Patriots get a first-round pick for Garoppolo. Three years ago, no one thought he was worth a first - he was chosen in the late second (pick 62). Now he is three years older and only has one year left on his rookie deal. Sure, he looked great in three halves earlier this year, but that's a small sample size and shouldn't move anyone off their draft evaluation significantly. Why is he worth significantly more now than he was three years ago even though his contract is less favorable?
I get the chatter that this QB draft class is weak, but then why not find a stopgap this year and try again in the 2018 draft? It just doesn't make any sense to me - and I like Garoppolo.
You don't think his performance and the overall command of the offense he displayed in those three halves do anything to alleviate some of the main criticisms people had of him coming out of college (footwork, his ability to grasp an NFL offense, adapting to taking snaps under center, poor reaction to pressure)? Honestly, that half against the Dolphins was one of the most impressive displays of quarterbacking the Patriots had this season, Brady included. I know it's a small sample size, but I believe it absolutely could be enough for a team to significantly overhaul their impressions of Jimmy, especially considering he had some good games in the preseason as well.I will be surprised if the Patriots get a first-round pick for Garoppolo. Three years ago, no one thought he was worth a first - he was chosen in the late second (pick 62). Now he is three years older and only has one year left on his rookie deal. Sure, he looked great in three halves earlier this year, but that's a small sample size and shouldn't move anyone off their draft evaluation significantly. Why is he worth significantly more now than he was three years ago even though his contract is less favorable?
I get the chatter that this QB draft class is weak, but then why not find a stopgap this year and try again in the 2018 draft? It just doesn't make any sense to me - and I like Garoppolo.
The new ones in SF and LA, certainly. A QB move THIS offseason in LA is practically impossible. That would leave Chi and Cleve.A good point. Do the GMs potentially involved here have a two or three year timeline to do that though?
Um...because he was very good in a college program where he basically called his own plays, showed enough to get drafted pretty high anyway, and then showed the capability to run one of the league's most complicated systems DESPITE his previous lack of experience in an offensive system, then looked very comfortable, sharp and productive in regular season NFL action? And, oh yeah, served his apprenticeship under Bill Belichick and at the knee of Tom Brady for three years, so what he's been asked to do, and had expected of him and lived up to has been a rather high standard? Besides THAT stuff, you mean?I will be surprised if the Patriots get a first-round pick for Garoppolo. Three years ago, no one thought he was worth a first - he was chosen in the late second (pick 62). Now he is three years older and only has one year left on his rookie deal. Sure, he looked great in three halves earlier this year, but that's a small sample size and shouldn't move anyone off their draft evaluation significantly. Why is he worth significantly more now than he was three years ago even though his contract is less favorable?
I get the chatter that this QB draft class is weak, but then why not find a stopgap this year and try again in the 2018 draft? It just doesn't make any sense to me - and I like Garoppolo.
I think it does something to alleviate some of those criticisms (and one you didn't list, concern over the level of competition he faced in college). But I have a hard time believing that it moves the needle so far in the other direction that it not only balances out three fewer years of control, it makes him drastically more valuable now. And we also have to consider that the reality that he couldn't make it two games before getting hurt might be a flag to teams.You don't think his performance and the overall command of the offense he displayed in those three halves do anything to alleviate some of the main criticisms people had of him coming out of college (footwork, his ability to grasp an NFL offense, adapting to taking snaps under center, poor reaction to pressure)?
His preseason was kind of spotty, honestly, at least this year. His best preseason year was probably his rookie year. And of course, preseason. He was great against Miami, and very good against Arizona.Honestly, that half against the Dolphins was one of the most impressive displays of quarterbacking the Patriots had this season, Brady included. I know it's a small sample size, but I believe it absolutely could be enough for a team to significantly overhaul their impressions of Jimmy, especially considering he had some good games in the preseason as well.
They didn't bring in a vet when Cassel was the backup either, or Hoyer, or Mallet. I don't think they're terribly keen on the kind of value to be hit in the free agent market for backup quarterbacks.The fact that the Patriots felt absolutely 100% confident in him being the starter for the first 4 games of the season, not bringing in a veteran at any point, with Belichick even using the word "seamless" when describing the transition from Brady to Jimmy, are also indications that they believe he's at a point in his development where they'd be comfortable having him as the starter for a significant period of time. I don't think there were any "let's praise the kid to up his trade value in the offseason" considerations at play there.
OK, but all this was true three years ago (and is true for a lot of guys), when he was only worth #62.Um...because he was very good in a college program where he basically called his own plays, showed enough to get drafted pretty high anyway,
He looked great ... in a tiny sample.then showed the capability to run one of the league's most complicated systems DESPITE his previous lack of experience in an offensive system, then looked very comfortable, sharp and productive in regular season NFL action?
This means nothing to me - it also applied to Mallett, Hoyer, Cassel, Matt Gutierrez, Rohan Davey, not to mention guys in analogous situations like Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter, Matt Flynn, and Scott Tolzien.And, oh yeah, served his apprenticeship under Bill Belichick and at the knee of Tom Brady for three years, so what he's been asked to do, and had expected of him and lived up to has been a rather high standard? Besides THAT stuff, you mean?
Houston does kind of make sense, because O'Brien runs a similar system and because of the salary cap situation you mention. I'm dubious that the Texans will go back to that well, however, so soon after the Osweiler disaster. Could you imagine if they give that huge contract to Brock and he flops, and then they trade a first for Jimmy and he flops? Yikes.I will not be surprised at all if they get a first round pick. I mean, why wouldn't Houston trade a late 1st round pick to get a young QB with his potential? Their biggest issue is at QB and he has a low salary while their cap is clogged by Osweiler. Then, if it works out, the Osweiler money is re-allocated to Jimmy.
Yeah, but why trade for Jimmy when you can draft one of the top guys in the draft and have five years of control instead of just one? Or if you don't like any of this year's class, why not ride with RGIII / Kessler for another year and take another crack in 2018? You're going to suck this year anyway; what does Jimmy give you that's worth #12?Or there's a team like Cleveland that has the #12 pick in addition to the top pick. If you like Jimmy, you're adding the top player in the draft and a potential franchise QB. That would be a great day.
Teams are under such pressure to win, even the Browns, that I think rational thinking kind of goes away. I mean, why would the Rams give up all that for Goff? Or the Vikings for Bradford? We're in February so the pressure isn't really on yet but come April that noose tightens and teams start to panic a bit.OK, but all this was true three years ago (and is true for a lot of guys), when he was only worth #62.
He looked great ... in a tiny sample.
This means nothing to me - it also applied to Mallett, Hoyer, Cassel, Matt Gutierrez, Rohan Davey, not to mention guys in analogous situations like Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter, Matt Flynn, and Scott Tolzien.
Houston does kind of make sense, because O'Brien runs a similar system and because of the salary cap situation you mention. I'm dubious that the Texans will go back to that well, however, so soon after the Osweiler disaster. Could you imagine if they give that huge contract to Brock and he flops, and then they trade a first for Jimmy and he flops? Yikes.
Yeah, but why trade for Jimmy when you can draft one of the top guys in the draft and have five years of control instead of just one? Or if you don't like any of this year's class, why not ride with RGIII / Kessler for another year and take another crack in 2018? You're going to suck this year anyway; what does Jimmy give you that's worth #12?
Yeah, a 2018 first would make more sense (or even like a 2018 conditional that's a 2nd if he doesn't start 10 games or a first if he does). I think something like two twos or a two and a three is more likely. FWIW, Garoppolo probably played his best preseason game this year against the Bears and the Pats did joint practices with them, so they have more information than most teams (for better or worse).Look at the Bears for a moment. They're in a spot where they might think they can improve next season, to the point where their 2018 first-rounder won't be a top three pick. Chicago offering a second (and-or a third) this year and a 1 in 2018 might be the best deal of all. 2017 is a deep draft, we've been told, and we know that NE likes depth in the draft (and Kraft never used to like paying first-round prices).
A 2018 first rounder seems a more likely scenario outside of getting anything better than Cleveland's pick at 12 ... and that's not even a certainty
Bradford was a panic trade, for sure, but under unusual circumstances. When I go around the league and try to put myself in other teams' shoes, I have a hard time making the case for the value here trading a first for Garoppolo. You can't rule out someone being kinda dumb, but you can't count on it, either, and I think teams might be especially leery of looking dumb trading with Belichick.Teams are under such pressure to win, even the Browns, that I think rational thinking kind of goes away. I mean, why would the Rams give up all that for Goff? Or the Vikings for Bradford? We're in February so the pressure isn't really on yet but come April that noose tightens and teams start to panic a bit.
VERY handsome.Jimmy is certainly far from a sure thing but he did look really good in his 1.5 games. Do we really think he would have nosedived at some point this year if Brady hadn't come back? Plus, he's handsome, which certainly counts for something.
Here are his throws from that game:Yeah, a 2018 first would make more sense (or even like a 2018 conditional that's a 2nd if he doesn't start 10 games or a first if he does). I think something like two twos or a two and a three is more likely. FWIW, Garoppolo probably played his best preseason game this year against the Bears and the Pats did joint practices with them, so they have more information than most teams (for better or worse).
Then Jimmy G gets hurt in Game 3 for 6-8 weeks leading to a 6-10 season and a top 8 pick in 2018 for the Patriots.Look at the Bears for a moment. They're in a spot where they might think they can improve next season, to the point where their 2018 first-rounder won't be a top three pick. Chicago offering a second (and-or a third) this year and a 1 in 2018 might be the best deal of all. 2017 is a deep draft, we've been told, and we know that NE likes depth in the draft (and Kraft never used to like paying first-round prices).
A 2018 first rounder seems a more likely scenario outside of getting anything better than Cleveland's pick at 12 ... and that's not even a certainty
Correct, but then they would be getting the Seattle pick backA lot of the talk has been about 1 (or 2) and a 4. But wouldn't that 4 get Goodell'd if it came this year, assuming it is higher in the round than Seattle's?
Then it only makes sense if it is in the Houston range. I could be talked into the Brown's two second round picks and something next year that could escalate from 4->2 depending on games started.Correct, but then they would be getting the Seattle pick back
Next year his value doesn't diminish a bit. It could very well evaporate if he sits on the bench, considering his contract will run out.Unless the NEP are somehow down on JG, getting a 2018 1st makes no sense...wait until next year to trade him if you have to...if Brady gets hurt in 2017 then JG gets to play (and perhaps save the season and enhance his value). If not, then his value diminishes a bit, but it seems as if the risk / reward is worth taking.
This is my issue, essentially. For Garoppolo, you're threading the needle where he's a long-term option (as opposed to more established players Cutler, Romo, Taylor, etc.), but figures to be more ready than the rookies. How many teams need a QB of the future but also need to win now? Bottom-dwellers like CLE, SF, JAX, can wait - they can draft a rookie, or plug in a stop-gap and go for a 2018 rookie. Teams with aging starters (NYG, Chargers, ARI, NO, KC, PIT) would almost certainly prefer a rookie to develop behind the starter. Rams, HOU, PHI, DEN just invested heavily in QB, and it's hard to imagine the Patriots trading to a division rival. Most of the other teams are set? Who's left? Chicago? I'm just having trouble seeing a fit.The other element here is that some of these teams may just wait us out -- by us, I mean teams like the NEP and Washington if it wishes to move Cousins.
The Bears seem determined to move on, but with Cleveland, who knows? I can definitely see both the Rams and 49ers, with new HCs and new GMs, marking time, and it's really difficult to see how the Rams throw the towel in on Goff after one year.
All it takes is one, ideally two, but we may be talking about two max (Houston, like LA, has problems, notably problems with money already sunk in the position.) NYJ and Bills are non-starters as trade partners, I think, for a guy who may stick for 10 years, and torture you twice a year if he does.
It's a good offseason for Brian Hoyer.This is my issue, essentially. For Garoppolo, you're threading the needle where he's a long-term option (as opposed to more established players Cutler, Romo, Taylor, etc.), but figures to be more ready than the rookies. How many teams need a QB of the future but also need to win now? Bottom-dwellers like CLE, SF, JAX, can wait - they can draft a rookie, or plug in a stop-gap and go for a 2018 rookie. Teams with aging starters (NYG, Chargers, ARI, NO, KC, PIT) would almost certainly prefer a rookie to develop behind the starter. Rams, HOU, PHI, DEN just invested heavily in QB, and it's hard to imagine the Patriots trading to a division rival. Most of the other teams are set? Who's left? Chicago? I'm just having trouble seeing a fit.
Agreed, those are bad deals, none of which I can see the Patriots doing. It's not as if the Patriots do not get a good pick if they let Jimmy leave after next season. I could see Patriots doing Jimmy G and a late round pick for Browns #12, but there is plenty of depth on the defensive side and swapping first rounders plus jimmy is never happeningYa, I don't think any of those are worth more than $1 million Brady insurance and comp pick.
Edit: not intended to diminish your post, was interesting to see what PFF thinks, actually.
Plus $50M or so in guarantees...So if I'm a team without a quality QB, and there are a lot of teams in that boat, and I look at what my options are for upgrading that position, I am comparing Jimmy G to a weak batch of draft picks, and a mediocre batch of veterans. In that comparison, Jimmy G looks pretty good. 6 quarters is a small sample size, for sure, but its more than any college kids have on their resumes.