AFC Championship: Patriots vs Steelers, the buildup
- Thread starter jsinger121
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I agree. These are the two best teams in the conference and this should be a competitive game, but Roethlisberger in particular doesnt scare me. He's a good quarterback, but he's played a step down from his peak this year, he hasn't been particularly good in these playoffs, and he has a middling playoff record. He's plenty good enough to play well enough to win Sunday, but Im much more worried about getting ground down by Bell in the running game and through YAC then I am about Roethlisberger carving up the secondary. Id have been much more worried on the defensive side facing last year's Steelers with Bryant and I'll be more worried this week if Green can go, otherwise the lack of a third option makes it a little easier to deal with the two headed monster.
I dont think past analysis is very relevant. Its pretty clear the Pats are more likely to win this game then either of the two games they played in Denver (last year's game in Denver was very winnable, '13 Denver was more of a longshot). Its also pretty clear this is a more competitive matchup than the Colts were in '04. Its pretty easy to envision how the Steelers win this game, Bell is his usual dominant self and the Steelers control the ball, the Steelers do a better job in the red zone than they did yesterday, Steelers pass rush does enough to hold the Pats somewhere in the 17-24 point range.
Slightly different topic, but I wonder if we see more of the White/Lewis backfield combo this week, particularly if Mitchell still can't go. Steelers aren't great at defending RB's in the passing game and that combination seems like it would cause some matchup problems, I wonder if the Pats have a few wrinkles out of that formation that they have kept under wraps.
I dont think past analysis is very relevant. Its pretty clear the Pats are more likely to win this game then either of the two games they played in Denver (last year's game in Denver was very winnable, '13 Denver was more of a longshot). Its also pretty clear this is a more competitive matchup than the Colts were in '04. Its pretty easy to envision how the Steelers win this game, Bell is his usual dominant self and the Steelers control the ball, the Steelers do a better job in the red zone than they did yesterday, Steelers pass rush does enough to hold the Pats somewhere in the 17-24 point range.
Slightly different topic, but I wonder if we see more of the White/Lewis backfield combo this week, particularly if Mitchell still can't go. Steelers aren't great at defending RB's in the passing game and that combination seems like it would cause some matchup problems, I wonder if the Pats have a few wrinkles out of that formation that they have kept under wraps.
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True, but I believe the quote was "head start" which I would argue implies extra preparation, not rest.
Almost meaningless locker room rhetoric aside (although I always enjoy the chance to mock dipshit Tomlin), I would look at the Seattle loss at home with Baldwin catching 3 touchdown passes and their ability to slowly move the chains as the recipe of how the Steelers can beat our Pats next weekend, and focus on red zone defense against AB.
Ben has only completed more than 25 passes in a postseason game twice, and he lost both times.
Here's the number of completions he's had in their wins: 17, 14, 14, 21, 9, 17, 16, 21, 19, 10, 18, 13, 20
Not sure exactly what that shows, but he hasn't exactly put them on his back and pulled them across the finish line in the postseason. Has he done it in the regular season? Of course. But we gotta bottle up Bell and make Ben do something he hasn't done in the playoffs--throw a lot. Because if we do, I think he makes mistakes.
Here's the number of completions he's had in their wins: 17, 14, 14, 21, 9, 17, 16, 21, 19, 10, 18, 13, 20
Not sure exactly what that shows, but he hasn't exactly put them on his back and pulled them across the finish line in the postseason. Has he done it in the regular season? Of course. But we gotta bottle up Bell and make Ben do something he hasn't done in the playoffs--throw a lot. Because if we do, I think he makes mistakes.
It seems to me the game turns into a nightmare if A) the OL has one of it's playoff no-shows; or B) the defense makes zero big plays and basically turns in the sort of performance we saw against Seattle (as referenced above by BusRaker). I suppose I'm a little more worried about "B" because the Steelers can beat you with long drives and with quick strikes and I think the defense is going to have to play a big part in any win.
Wasn't that the game originally scheduled for 1pm and shifted to 8 due to weather (ice storm the night before)?
That adds an extra half a day, so they're feeling put-upon by that.
Seems like it would be smarter to stay over Sunday night, catch a morning flight, rather than taking essentially a red-eye.
Run defense is the biggest key to this game on both sides. If Pats can run the ball effectively, it will open up the intermediate level of the field for the RBs and Edelman which then the Steelers can't stop the Pats. If Steelers can run the ball well, it likely means an extra player in the box for the Pats and that means maybe not being able to bracket AB. Without the benefit of seeing the film from Week 7 to see if they did this I would think the Pats will want to play 2 deep safeties this week to keep everything in front.
I think you can play one safety deep and shade him to help on Brown. The Steelers' second leading receiver is Bell. Sammie Coates has two catches since Week 5, and Darrius Heyward-Bey is the only other Steeler with a 40-yard catch on the season. You don't really need to worry about anyone except Brown winning deep.
I agree that the Pats need to be able to atleast slow down the Steelers run game, but over the last couple of years, the Patriots have come out throwing (and been really successful at it) against the Steelers, no matter the quality of their pass defense.
I think we see a lot of White and Lewis catching the ball, and not an awful lot of Blount until the 2nd half.
It will be interesting to see if the Steelers can for once come out an play a decent game against New England.
While Baltimore has always seemed to play over their head in matchups with the Pats the Steelers for the least 15 years have underachieved badly in the same matchups.
Positionally
Offensive line The Steelers OL is very good. Very good in pass protection, and very good on the run.
TE Steelers TE is good if Green plays, below average if he doesn't
FB Nix is a mean sob, who doesn't play much
WR Brown is great, the rest of the unit is waiver wire/practice squad guys. Rodgers is developing into a decent #3 type. Big question is can Sammy Coates play and do anything, He had 5 monster weeks to start the year broke his finger and has been invisible sine. Steelers offense is built around the deep pass, and really has no option other than Brown right now.
RB Bell is the best in the business. Deangelo Williams might get a few carries at most
QB Ben is Ben. He has been mediocre in postseason, and hasn't really had a Ben like game in months, and has played conservatively. Could blow up and have a miserable game, could throw 5TD's neither would be a big surprise
PK Boswell has been very solid and won 2 games for them during the last month. Not a huge leg.
ST Return game has been a disaster all year
Defense
DL Missing their best player, and even his backup. The line has stuck together and played well. Tuit is the best player here, but he is more of a traditional 3-4 end. Rookie Hargrave is a bit small, but quick at NT
OLB. Dupree is explosive on the left side. He missed most of the year with injury but has been a force the last month. Harrison is not the player he used to be, but still darn good and plays with passion
ILB Shazier is light but explosively fast, big time playmaker. TImmons is still getting it done as a run thumper, who can do more
CB Cockrell is decent but can be taken advantage of at times, as he is a bit slow. Burns is fast, and makes big plays, but makes bad reads some times, and can be beaten on moves
S Mitchell is your classic hitter in the secondary. He has decent speed, and will at times hit like a truck, legally or not. Davis is another rookie who is fast and a playmaker, but still a rookie.
Punter Berry is very good.
Coverage. Absolutely terrible.
The game comes down to Ben vs Brady. Most likely this favors NE, but if it doesn't the Steelers can and probably do win this game
While Baltimore has always seemed to play over their head in matchups with the Pats the Steelers for the least 15 years have underachieved badly in the same matchups.
Positionally
Offensive line The Steelers OL is very good. Very good in pass protection, and very good on the run.
TE Steelers TE is good if Green plays, below average if he doesn't
FB Nix is a mean sob, who doesn't play much
WR Brown is great, the rest of the unit is waiver wire/practice squad guys. Rodgers is developing into a decent #3 type. Big question is can Sammy Coates play and do anything, He had 5 monster weeks to start the year broke his finger and has been invisible sine. Steelers offense is built around the deep pass, and really has no option other than Brown right now.
RB Bell is the best in the business. Deangelo Williams might get a few carries at most
QB Ben is Ben. He has been mediocre in postseason, and hasn't really had a Ben like game in months, and has played conservatively. Could blow up and have a miserable game, could throw 5TD's neither would be a big surprise
PK Boswell has been very solid and won 2 games for them during the last month. Not a huge leg.
ST Return game has been a disaster all year
Defense
DL Missing their best player, and even his backup. The line has stuck together and played well. Tuit is the best player here, but he is more of a traditional 3-4 end. Rookie Hargrave is a bit small, but quick at NT
OLB. Dupree is explosive on the left side. He missed most of the year with injury but has been a force the last month. Harrison is not the player he used to be, but still darn good and plays with passion
ILB Shazier is light but explosively fast, big time playmaker. TImmons is still getting it done as a run thumper, who can do more
CB Cockrell is decent but can be taken advantage of at times, as he is a bit slow. Burns is fast, and makes big plays, but makes bad reads some times, and can be beaten on moves
S Mitchell is your classic hitter in the secondary. He has decent speed, and will at times hit like a truck, legally or not. Davis is another rookie who is fast and a playmaker, but still a rookie.
Punter Berry is very good.
Coverage. Absolutely terrible.
The game comes down to Ben vs Brady. Most likely this favors NE, but if it doesn't the Steelers can and probably do win this game
Maybe not, but Eli Rogers isn't too bad, pushing 50 catches for 600 yards, and has had 5+ catches in 4 of last 5.
He has some weird numbers though:
against KC, 5 catches for 27 yards, so everything is short
against BUF, 3 for 20
against NYG, 3 for 18
but then
5 for 84 and 6 for 103, both against Baltimore
Outside of the Ravens his numbers look like Mitchell: 37 for 410.
Good summary Mike. I think the two bolded points go hand in hand.
And yes, it all comes down to containing Brady. If they can do that, I think they can pull this out - something in the neighborhood of 28-24.
I don't know but I suspect the fans at the Blade will have some very specific greetings for Mr. Tomlin next Sunday. Nantz, Simms and crew are going to have to make sure that they muffle the crowd sounds or the viewing audience are going to hear some very bad words.
it means the steelers are going to be ready to play the patriots in the opinion of mike tomlin.
oh and it's "woof tickets"
nothing to see here really, other than brown made a pretty dumb decision
For those who have been saying BR is not the same player on the road, his career splits tell that story.
At home: 99.5 rating
Away: 88.8 rating
This season has shown a wider disparity.
Home: 116.7
Away: 78.4
That away slate included WAS, MIA, IND, BUF, and PHI, plus the division opponents of BAL, CIN, and CLE
That's hardly a murderers row.
For context, Brady's splits:
Home: 98.1
Away: 96.3
Brady this season
Home: 112.6
Away: 111.9
Figure out how to reasonably contain Bell and NE gives themselves a very good chance of going to the Super Bowl.
At home: 99.5 rating
Away: 88.8 rating
This season has shown a wider disparity.
Home: 116.7
Away: 78.4
That away slate included WAS, MIA, IND, BUF, and PHI, plus the division opponents of BAL, CIN, and CLE
That's hardly a murderers row.
For context, Brady's splits:
Home: 98.1
Away: 96.3
Brady this season
Home: 112.6
Away: 111.9
Figure out how to reasonably contain Bell and NE gives themselves a very good chance of going to the Super Bowl.
he means he doesn't want everybody barking at the pats and giving them bulletin board material.
What makes this game tough to cap is that both NE and PIT had really easy schedules down the stretch. Both teams last loss was at home against a very tough NFC opponent (SEA/DAL). Since then toughest opponent either has faced was arguably a BAL team that didn't make the playoffs or DEN/KC. Safe to say this is the toughest game for both teams in at least 8 weeks.
The Pats have historically covered top receivers with their second-best corner and safety help. Do you see them using this strategy this week and if so, do they use Butler in this role given the lack of other options for Pittsburgh? Did they follow him with one of those two when they played earlier this year?
If it's Butler, I hope he watches film of that time Brown juked him with that made-you-look move. I was rewatching that all weekend. Can't afford a repeat in the playoffs.
BB on Brown Facebook Live video: "Not on SnapFace, not too worried what they put out on InstaChat."
To add to that, here's the Pats' pass defense in 2016, both home and away:
Home (9 games): 211-341 (61.9%), 2250 yds, 11 td, 12 int, 77.3 rating
Road (8 games): 180-295 (61.0%), 1981 yds, 11 td, 4 int, 87.7 rating
So significantly better at home than on the road. Their home slate featured four games against playoff teams (Mia, Hou, Sea, Hou), while their road slate featured two games against playoff teams (Pit, Mia).
538 and FO have playoff odds updated.
538 has the Pats as 70% favorites to win against the Steelers and 43% Super Bowl favorites.
Atlanta is next with a 61% chance to make the Super Bowl and a 25% chance overall to win it.
For the sake of being thorough... GB is next with a 39% chance to make the Super Bowl and a 16% to win it all. The Steelers finish in 4th with a 30% chance to make the Super Bowl and a 15% chance to win it all.
Football Outsiders has the Pats as 61.9% favorites to win against the Steelers and a 35.5% chance to win it all.
Atlanta is next, at 62.0% and 25.5% respectively, followed by the Steelers at 38.1% and 19.7% respectively, and last is Green Bay at 38.0% and 16.3%.
538 has the Pats as 70% favorites to win against the Steelers and 43% Super Bowl favorites.
Atlanta is next with a 61% chance to make the Super Bowl and a 25% chance overall to win it.
For the sake of being thorough... GB is next with a 39% chance to make the Super Bowl and a 16% to win it all. The Steelers finish in 4th with a 30% chance to make the Super Bowl and a 15% chance to win it all.
Football Outsiders has the Pats as 61.9% favorites to win against the Steelers and a 35.5% chance to win it all.
Atlanta is next, at 62.0% and 25.5% respectively, followed by the Steelers at 38.1% and 19.7% respectively, and last is Green Bay at 38.0% and 16.3%.
I guess I'm a lot more confident BB can stop a great offense than if they had to score against a great defense. It's the latter matchups that always scare me.
Pittsburgh's defense certainly played well last night, but Kansas City helped a lot with mistakes in execution. They had plenty of open receivers and lots of drops. If the Pats execute, there are going to be opportunities for big plays. I still think the Houston defense is a lot better than what TB is up against next weekend.
The Steelers are a good team but I keep coming back to this thought.
Which Offense would you prefer to have if you could chose?
Which Defense would you prefer to have?
Isn't the answer to those questions both the Pats?
So while I can easily envision a game that the Pats lose, I just think the Pats are the better team in all aspects.
Which Offense would you prefer to have if you could chose?
Which Defense would you prefer to have?
Isn't the answer to those questions both the Pats?
So while I can easily envision a game that the Pats lose, I just think the Pats are the better team in all aspects.
Special teams matter and pats fumbling on punts and kickoffs have made games closer than need be, including the last one
Yeah, but you can't shut down everything. If they can limit Brown and Bell and stiffen up in the red zone, I think they'll live with Rogers getting 60 yards and converting a few third downs.
They've played it more by matchup the past couple seasons (Ryan / Rowe on the bigger guy, Butler on the faster / quicker guy) and Butler has primarily drawn Brown in the last two matchups, which makes sense. I think they'll do the same here, and Butler will have help on deep routes and on crossing patterns for the most part.
I don't care that he called the Pats assholes or was otherwise animated in a post-game speech. No shocker in any of that and nothing that moves the needle in any way.
But that he emphasized that the Patriots had an extra day and a half was pretty unusual in my view. Coaches normally seek to minimize excuses with their players. And that one of his players live FB'd his post-game speech, with some of them clearly not listening, was also unusual. The only post-game speeches I've seen have been polished up NFL or Patriots productions.
And last, that he cautioned that they not provide the Pats with fodder and Bell thereupon talked a little smack, as mild as it was, was also amusing. Make no mistake, if Bell has said that not in the context of Tomlin's comments, I would have just shrugged. That Bell's comments followed his coach's admonition was fun stuff.
I am not counting on any of that to matter on Sunday night. But with six days to go, and the Bs looking like corpses today, I'll take my amusements where I can get them.
I'm assuming Belichick and Adams will make sure that the Papa Johns app won't work in Gillette, along with all the rest of the Steelers communications.
The Patriots clearly can't play a game like last week and expect to win this one. You have to hope they got that out of their system because they won't survive anything that approaches that.
For admittedly poor reasons, I just can't shake the idea that the Patriots having not played an opponent of this caliber for quite some time is going to be really impactful. I think you can rely on your superior coaching and preparation in particular when you're going up against more ordinary teams. But the high end talent that Pitt has really feels like a potential nightmare for the Patriots. Sometimes, players like Bell and Brown overcome what you're trying to do, even if it is intelligent and well thought through. Having said all that, the Patriots have overcome plenty of talented teams in their various runs, so maybe I'm chasing shadows with this logic. Either way, I think the very real step up in performance level could be an issue. They'll need the OL to give Brady time so he isn't playing spooked. In a lot of ways, it's probably as simple as that since the Patriots essentially gamble that they can out execute you. They think they can move the ball up and down the field quite well and play a style of defense that dares you to make a bunch of plays consistently, all night, to match them. For most teams that's a losing proposition. It's only when teams rattle Brady and get them back into more mortal offense that the games get tight.
For admittedly poor reasons, I just can't shake the idea that the Patriots having not played an opponent of this caliber for quite some time is going to be really impactful. I think you can rely on your superior coaching and preparation in particular when you're going up against more ordinary teams. But the high end talent that Pitt has really feels like a potential nightmare for the Patriots. Sometimes, players like Bell and Brown overcome what you're trying to do, even if it is intelligent and well thought through. Having said all that, the Patriots have overcome plenty of talented teams in their various runs, so maybe I'm chasing shadows with this logic. Either way, I think the very real step up in performance level could be an issue. They'll need the OL to give Brady time so he isn't playing spooked. In a lot of ways, it's probably as simple as that since the Patriots essentially gamble that they can out execute you. They think they can move the ball up and down the field quite well and play a style of defense that dares you to make a bunch of plays consistently, all night, to match them. For most teams that's a losing proposition. It's only when teams rattle Brady and get them back into more mortal offense that the games get tight.
I don't think there was any smack talk in what Bell said. He followed up, paraphrasing, "we feel like we can beat anyone" with "it will take our best game, it will take better than our A game to beat NE".
Pitt is more battle tested this year, and especially during their 9 game run, but it shows they are not as naturally strong as NE.
First they needed the first 6 of the streak just to have a chance at postseason
they had to come back from a 2 TD deficit in Cincinatti winning with a mid 4th quarter TD
They had to come back from a 10 point 4th quater deficit against Baltimore which was basically a AFC North Championship game
Even in the useless Cleveland game with pne quarter of the roster sitting out the Steelers came from 2 TD's down and scored on their final drive of the game for the win
And of course last night in KC was a brutal game in a brutal environment where Ben had a pretty mediocre to poor night, and they were able to survive
First they needed the first 6 of the streak just to have a chance at postseason
they had to come back from a 2 TD deficit in Cincinatti winning with a mid 4th quarter TD
They had to come back from a 10 point 4th quater deficit against Baltimore which was basically a AFC North Championship game
Even in the useless Cleveland game with pne quarter of the roster sitting out the Steelers came from 2 TD's down and scored on their final drive of the game for the win
And of course last night in KC was a brutal game in a brutal environment where Ben had a pretty mediocre to poor night, and they were able to survive
I'm not wearing my glasses and read this originally as "Ben could throw STD's".
Works either way.
People have made that speculative connection but there's no evidence for it AFAIK. Wiktionary speculates a different origin: that "woof tickets" is the original, from "woofing".
i've always understood that "woof" is the original and "wolf" was a variant that arose out of white people hearing it wrong, that eventually became the norm, or at least accepted.
it's pretty much synonymous with barking at someone. bark = woof.
Ah. Like 'all bark no bite' kinda thing?
If the patriots win, would that make Tomlin the coach who cried 'woof'?
If the patriots win, would that make Tomlin the coach who cried 'woof'?
No doubt the Steelers D is improved, but KC's 4-corners/clock-killing offense and some key misfires and drops made them look even better. I'm expecting the Pats to use a lot of up-tempo sequences and generally try to keep them on their heels.