The Bullpen Thread
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I feel like that number is impossible over a large sample size.
As in, they could throw straight middle middle fastballs not even trying to get guys out and wouldn't get tagged like they've been.
It's mind blowing.
That's a weird stat. Apparently, the Cubs are the only team with an ERA below 7 in high leverage situations.
I think they're using ERA with a non-standard meaning. Say it's tied in the top of the 8th, and the pitcher comes in, records an out, then puts runners on 2nd and 3rd, and then he (or a reliever) allows a single that scores both runs, and then retires the next two hitters. As I understand it, the team's pitching staff would be on the hook for two runs and receive credit for zero outs in high leverage situations, since the situation was only "high leverage" when the runners were on 2nd and 3rd. Hence, their "high leverage ERA" would be infinite. So that 12 might be a little deceptive.
Granted the Sox are worst in the bigs in that stat, but I don't think that number means what we think it means. B-Ref uses BA/OBP/SLG/OPS+ instead of ERA to describe hi-leverage situations, which I think makes a lot more sense.
I think they're using ERA with a non-standard meaning. Say it's tied in the top of the 8th, and the pitcher comes in, records an out, then puts runners on 2nd and 3rd, and then he (or a reliever) allows a single that scores both runs, and then retires the next two hitters. As I understand it, the team's pitching staff would be on the hook for two runs and receive credit for zero outs in high leverage situations, since the situation was only "high leverage" when the runners were on 2nd and 3rd. Hence, their "high leverage ERA" would be infinite. So that 12 might be a little deceptive.
Granted the Sox are worst in the bigs in that stat, but I don't think that number means what we think it means. B-Ref uses BA/OBP/SLG/OPS+ instead of ERA to describe hi-leverage situations, which I think makes a lot more sense.
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High-leverage situations are always going to have a much higher amount of runs allowed, because they usually come with runners on base. One could pitch exactly the same in high leverage as low leverage and his ERA would be higher in the high-leverage spots.
Looking at the BA/OBP/SLG in high-leverage spots is far more meaningful. To take cannonball's post a step further, the AL as a whole has an OPS allowed in high / medium / low spots of .729/.755/.746 and the Sox are .743/.764/.670. The overall point is the same (they are worse in higher-leverage than most teams) but it doesn't look impossibly high when put like that.
Looking at the BA/OBP/SLG in high-leverage spots is far more meaningful. To take cannonball's post a step further, the AL as a whole has an OPS allowed in high / medium / low spots of .729/.755/.746 and the Sox are .743/.764/.670. The overall point is the same (they are worse in higher-leverage than most teams) but it doesn't look impossibly high when put like that.
Yes I agree. I fully expect Kimbrel to go 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth as they lose a game they relievers blew in front of him in the one game playoff. It'll give us hope for next year.
Nah, starters will go a little longer, innings will go to Kimbrel, Wright, and Kelly with matchups by Ziegler and Ross as necessary. Not a shutdown pen by any means, but they'll get the job done.
Was busting your balls but I have no idea why you'd expect a 2003ish performance out of this pen, nor even 2004. I don't see where in the world you're pulling that confidence from other than sheer optimism.
And who were the shutdown studs in '04, sans Foulke? Timlin was solid, but hardly overwhelming. Embree and Leskanic pitched their asses off in the postseason, but neither of them exactly lit it up all season long.
If you don't think guys like Ross, Koji, Kelly, or Ziegler could muster up a few weeks of dominant stuff out of the pen, I don't know what to tell you. Sometimes guys inexplicably get hot out of nowhere (2004 playoff Lowe, anyone?) With more aggressive and consistent usage, I could absolutely see it happening in a relatively small sample like the playoffs.
I'm not expecting either. The 2003, 2004, bullpen was absolutely nails. This bullpen doesn't have to be nails to be successful or to surprise folks here. Although as I look back, while the 2003 bullpen was nails--at least in the ALCS, and Foulke was nails in the 2004 ALCS, the rest of the 2004 bullpen wasn't. Wake came out of the pen with an ERA over eight, and really, only Foulke and Embree were excellent.
But like I said, I don't expect them to be brilliant. They don't have to be. The Sox will have the best offense at least until the World Series. The four playoff starters--Price, Porcello, Pomeranz, Rodriguez--are all pitching well now and while that could change before the post season, it could also stay very much the same. I think you'll see the starters regularly go into the 7th before coming out for a specific matchup leading into Buch/Kelly/Barnes in the 8th and Kimbrel in the 9th. And frankly, if a starter has to come out early, I like the idea of Wright pitching the 6th and 7th in advance of the flamethrowers in the 8th and 9th.
But the bullpen has shown a remarkable ability to be at it's worst at the worst possible times. The ERA in high leverage situations is over 12. I simply don't think that's something that's sustainable. In the playoffs, you're not going to see the dregs. You're going to see Kimbrel in the 9th. He's been our best reliever and I think you'll see more 4 out saves than you would from regular season Farrell. I think you'll see Buchholz, Wright, Barnes, and Kelly competing for the 7th and 8th innings and frankly, you'll probably see them all get used. Ross and Abad have been fine against lefties and I think in the playoffs with the increased importance of each game and the extra off days, you'll see the manager be stricter about their usage. That's not to say they won't ever face a righty but it'll be in a LRL situation where they're yanked quickly rather than an "Oh my god, our bullpen got hammered yesterday, lets try to get some extra outs out of this guy."
They're going to allow runs, they'll probably lose games, but I don't think you'll see the dumpster fire the bullpen has felt like for much of this season.
In short, I think the bullpen will surprise because we're expecting it to be frikkin' terrible and it will likely be more or less decent. Were this a wager, I'd be counting more on excessively negative expectations than excellent performance.
I mean, seriously, a 12.42 ERA in high leverage situations compared to a 4.83 FIP and 4.71 xFIP.
The surprise better happen over the next 4 weeks or there won't be any playoff surprise.
I think it's important to note something you touched on here. Namely, that playoff bullpen usage differs greatly from regular season bullpen usage. Consider Koji's usage in 2013. The Red Sox played 16 postseason games that year (4 vs TB, 6 vs Det, 6 vs StL), and Koji pitched in 13 of them. Or Foulke in 2004. The Sox played 14 playoff games (3 vs Ana, 7 vs NYY, 4 vs StL), and Foulke pitched in 11 of them. You'll see the very best Red Sox' relievers pitch as much as humanly possible in every close and late situation. Kimbrel, Koji (assuming he's back healthy and effective, but we'll see in September), a healthy Ziegler. Those guys - who are all good - should pitch a ton.
Of course, if they don't get to the playoffs, this is all moot. Gotta get there first, and that obviously could be their undoing.
Yes and the scheduling of playoff baseball helps facilitate this as they never play more than 2 consecutive days before the LCS rounds and from that point no more than 3 in a row barring rainouts.
I'm a little surprised people are assuming Pomeranz is a lock for the playoff rotation. That would be three lefty starters and only one decent lefty in the bullpen. Buchholz and Rodriguez might be pitching Drew into the pen.
I'm also pretty optimistic about this BP going forward with the return of playoff Koji, Zeigler and Hembree as a ROOGYs, RR dominating in August/September, and Taz hopefully done. As someone mentioned upthread, thats three closers
I'm also pretty optimistic about this BP going forward with the return of playoff Koji, Zeigler and Hembree as a ROOGYs, RR dominating in August/September, and Taz hopefully done. As someone mentioned upthread, thats three closers
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See, this is what I'm talking about. You don't think it's even possible to make the playoffs with this bullpen. That's clearly absurd considering we're tied for first with this bullpen.
I don't think we should be counting on Koji for anything.
Also, I really don't buy Buchholz as a playoff starter unless he pitches absolutely brilliantly and Pomeranz pitches less well? The way things stand now, there's a pretty clear top four in the rotation, and that three of them are lefties is largely irrelevant to me.
Also, Fernando Abad, against lefties.... .148 BA, .178 OBP . 261 SLG for an OPS of .439. In the playoffs, I think it's reasonable to assume he's going to be used more strictly and only face a righty if it's a LRL situation.
Abad may be settling in. He's had two straight clean sheets and only one stinker in his last seven appearances. He's been arguably above average for most of his career so far, so I guess there's hope for him straightening himself out and contributing.
What are peoples' thoughts on Joe Kelly so far? He could be the "surprise." An effective Koji and/or Robby Scott would help things as well.
From your lips to God's ears, but I'm thinking that with the Sox now holding a share of first place Koji is on a very short leash as far as high lev situations go. I'm not holding my breath for Playoff Koji to be walking through that proverbial door. The difference between the division and the wild card is too important and there is also the fact that the wild card is not a given at this point either.
As long as he doesn't walk guys he's OK. But he still seems to be throwing meatballs all too frequently. Against the lesser lights of the league I think he's fine. Against the Blue Jays or Indians or Tigers .. Low lev only if you please.
So Koji looked pretty good last night. Perhaps our dot com folks could put together a quick article on his performance from last night?
The only surprise would be if Joe Kelly is wearing a uniform in the playoffs. I like how Abad is settling in but to me the most crucial part of our bullpen will be determined by whether Koji becomes that 8th inning guy we all hope he is come October. That changes everything and if he's healthy that time off could even help him with his arm being fresh.
Is there a problem with Zeigler? I note he had some illness and then see that he was removed last night and Kimbrel finished. This may be covered elsewhere but I can't seem to find much mention of his status since he has been pretty reliable until recently
Yeah, it would be totally unprecedented for a hard throwing starting pitcher with command issues to become a quality set up man. It's only the route taken by aome of the most successful closers in the game's history, to say nothing of the hundreds of set up men who followed that path.
Joe Kelly is a AAA/mop-up ML pitcher this season with a 6.83 ERA and a 2.0 WHIP this season at the ML level. You really expect him to be on a post-season roster much less be a high leverage set-up man?
Your playoff bullpen candidates are Kimbrel, Koji, Buchholz, Barnes, Ross, Ziegler, Hembree, and Abad. It's likely 2 of them are left off, certainly 1, before we even get to the Kelly.......and that doesn't even account for a possible return of Wright.
The pen was actually pretty good against the Jays over the first 13 games. In 37.2 bullpen innings, Koji gave up 8 of the 16 total runs. Everyone else was more or less effective. Oddly Noe Ramirez faced them 5 times and was only scored on in one of them.
They also got about 5.2 innings per start which isn't too bad considering Kelly failed to go 5 twice.
The pen vs the O's 6.85. .. not so hot. The innings per start was also around 5.2, but is skewed by E-Rod leaving after 4 perfect innings, and Price's rain shortened CG.
Wright had 4 QS vs the O's and Jays so hopefully Pomeranz or Clay steps up, if Drew faces them the last week of the season.
Ziegler is going to be absolutely huge facing guys like Tulo, Encarnacion, Bautista, Donaldson, Machado, Trumbo, Jones etc. He hasn't faced TOR yet and only has 1.1 IP vs the O's.
Starters went over 6 IP per start vs the Yanks, so with the increased amount of arms, they should be ok there too. David Price has given up 15 of the total 43 runs vs the Yanks too, so maybe if he misses them, he misses them.
They also got about 5.2 innings per start which isn't too bad considering Kelly failed to go 5 twice.
The pen vs the O's 6.85. .. not so hot. The innings per start was also around 5.2, but is skewed by E-Rod leaving after 4 perfect innings, and Price's rain shortened CG.
Wright had 4 QS vs the O's and Jays so hopefully Pomeranz or Clay steps up, if Drew faces them the last week of the season.
Ziegler is going to be absolutely huge facing guys like Tulo, Encarnacion, Bautista, Donaldson, Machado, Trumbo, Jones etc. He hasn't faced TOR yet and only has 1.1 IP vs the O's.
Starters went over 6 IP per start vs the Yanks, so with the increased amount of arms, they should be ok there too. David Price has given up 15 of the total 43 runs vs the Yanks too, so maybe if he misses them, he misses them.
I think it was just some work for both without overdoing it because he came in and faced a few lefties. They have the off day to rest up and this gives them both availability in 2 of the 3 games vs Toronto. DOB is kind of an idiot when it comes to critical thinking, but I think that's all it was.
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He has 29 innings at the ML level. I'd guess it depends largely on how he performs the rest of the year. He was lights out as a MR in Pawtucket.
I think Kelly is for real and at worst is as good as Barnes in the pen with a higher upside. The key with guys like Kelly and Barnes is to give them clean innings. Hembree or Ziegler are good guys to pair up with Abad, since they all have pronounced splits. Ross should also be getting clean innings and not be used as a LOOGY.
It's pretty nice adding Kelly and getting back Koji and Ziegler. The pen is in so much better shape now than a week ago.
It's pretty nice adding Kelly and getting back Koji and Ziegler. The pen is in so much better shape now than a week ago.
Kelly has shown stretches of dominance as a starter, as recently as the second half of last year. That said, he sucked in 6 ML starts this year, was very good in his MiL starts/relief appearances, and he's been good in his 6 ML relief appearances this year. I'm sure someone can do a more sophisticated analysis, comparing his pitch selection, etc. But the envelope analysis is that he has shown he has the talent to succeed at the ML level. If he dominates from here on out, he makes the post-season roster.
I don't think the numbers against Toronto mean much; we saw them a ton in April when they were having a slow start (I think that also explains how Noe survived), and we haven't played them in over three months now. A lot has changed since then.
Hm, good call perhaps? Now that Farrell altered the rotation to insert Buchholz Sunday and push Pomeranz back, it's a fair question to wonder if maybe the high innings total is something they are concerned about, and if so that's a factor in setting the playoff (knocks on wood) rotation.
I think Kelly out of the pen is highly likely to be significantly better than Barnes and Hembree. I don't see that either of them has already earned a playoff spot. Barnes, especially, proved himself unable to throw strikes in high pressure situations, which defines innings 1 through the conclusion of playoff games.
Kelly is only 6 months older than Hembree and has an equivalent career whip (1.35 to 1.42) despite Hembree literally being nothing but a mop up man and Kelly being primarily a starter.
Ummmmm if Kimbrell pitches 1-2-3 in the bottom of the ninth and the game ends the Sox would have been in the lead.....
I swear I feel like I'm being trolled here. Barnes has been the choice over Kelly early in season, in mid-season, and as recently as this week. What evidence do you see that suggests Farrell suddenly trusts Kelly over Barnes?
Barnes didn't have a great month in August, and he's also relatively inexperienced, particularly w.r.t postseason. But given his overuse in August (13 appearances) and his sudden underusage since (one appearance in September), it's more likely the team's view that Barnes needs to catch his breath, not that he needs to be replaced. Kelly has three weeks to make his case, but unless Barnes falls apart, it's not likely to result in a change.
Projecting an optimal high-leverage bullpen. Currently there are ten relievers at Farrell's disposal:
- Abad LOOGY is better than no LOOGY at all
- Barnes – better against RHB, generally reliable against both platoons, can go multiple innings.
- Hembree – ROOGY only, will probably not make it onto any playoff roster unless he takes a big step forward.
- Kelly – can he throw fastballs without grooving them? If he can, then he and Barnes are duplicates, hard throwers who can go more than one inning.
- Kimbrel – will get multiple chances to show that Uehara is a better closer.
- Ross – the most reliable multiple inning reliever, Ross can throw to either platoon. He is best saved for situations where he can face LHB who bail against lefties, followed by switch-hitters.
- Scott – could still earn his way onto a playoff roster by a strong September showing. I expect he'll push Abad away agone.
- Tazawa – looks cooked, and is probably headed for the DL.
- Uehara – Koji 2013 is back!
- Ziegler – for double-play situations and uninterrupted stretches of RHB.
"Sprowl predicts October will end with Koji closing, Ross or Ziegler taking the 8th (depending on batter handedness), Scott as LOOGY, Barnes and Kelly taking the 6th and 7th, Hembree off the playoff roster (unless Wright is still injured), and Abad, Kimbrel and Tazawa on the DL."
Is that your boldest ever post? Kimbrel on the fake DL (what is that snazzy term you have for it?), or actually hurt? I think Farrell stays with Kimbrel as closer unless he really soils himself, being one of Dombrowski's prize pickups and all.
Is that your boldest ever post? Kimbrel on the fake DL (what is that snazzy term you have for it?), or actually hurt? I think Farrell stays with Kimbrel as closer unless he really soils himself, being one of Dombrowski's prize pickups and all.
I've been among the first to criticize the bullpen this year so I have to acknowledge them when they get the job done. The pen sacked up today after Clay's implosion. 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, and 10 K's is absolutely amazing with the last 5 innings scoreless. They came up huge in the biggest game of the season.
Used the entire playoff formula to do it too. Ross, Ziegler, Abad, and Barnes to get to Koji in the 8th and Kimbrel in the 9th. Koji is the key to our October and his arm is fresh for the grind.
A healthy Koji would be my desired arm at the back end and would change a lot.
Kimbrel scares me, and has for most of the year. Today when he came in, I thought: A 3-run cushion isn't all that much. If Martin's hit had been a double--runners at second and third with one out--who knows what might have happened. But I admit that at the same time I'm probably guilty of assuming too much from Koji.
Kimbrel gets way too much shit around here. Sure he's liable to give us a heart attack or two but he's gotten the job done the vast majority of the time with a 2.78 ERA and a FIP that's not too far off from it.
He walks too many guys but he also strikes out a ton of them and keeps the ball in the yard.
Someone had to be warming in case Koji shit the bed. I guess it was either Tazawa or Kelly.
Was Tazawa actually warming up to come into the game though? I saw him warming up and reached for the Tums but later on I realized he might have just been getting his work in. It has been awhile since he last pitched thank the Lord. Did any of the media ask Farrell about it after the game?