Reasons to dislike the trade:
(1) Espinoza isn't your run-of-the-mill pitching prospect. He's an elite pitching prospect with true #1 upside. Everything about him screams "dominant major league starter for years". His repertoire, his stuff, everything except his physical size, but for the elite guys, that has never been much of an issue. Very tough to give up someone who hits triple digits and has secondary stuff like he has. Even tougher to give up this guy for anyone who is not a #1 starter.
(2) Is Pomeranz really as good as he looks this year? The three years after leaving Coors, his FIPs have been 3.77, 3.62, and 3.18. Pretty solid, for sure, and a major upgrade over what the Sox have been throwing out there. But 3.77 and 3.62 are not "ace" numbers. Over the past three seasons his era has been 2.84 while his FIP has been 3.48. So there may be some luck involved there for him. His average fastball velocity this year has been just about 92, down a tick from what it looks like it was last year. He has basically been a two-pitch pitcher for his career (low 90s fastball and a big 12-6 curve).
Reasons to like this trade:
(1) Pomeranz is really good. I've looked at the numbers for an hour now, and I'm walking away happy. He spent his first three years in Colorado, then two in Oakland, and finally now in San Diego.
First 3 years (ages 22-24): 136.2 ip, 5.20 era, 4.78 fip, 1.54 whip, 7.6 k/9
Last 3 years (ages 25-27): 257.0 ip, 2.84 era, 3.48 fip, 1.12 whip, 9.1 k/9
At Coors: 80.2 ip, 4.35 era, 1.48 whip, 7.5 k/9
Elsewhere: 313 ip, 3.48 era, 1.21 whip, 8.9 k/9
Coors effect? Sure seems so. That plus him getting older and better. Adding a cutter. Being more refined in his approach and his stuff is sharper. This seems to be a classic case of a talented guy leaving a bad pitching situation and hitting the start of his peak years, and....actually improving to the point where he is a really good major league pitcher. He was a very highly regarded prospect, so this really should come as no surprise. The innings pitched numbers worry me a little in terms of his ability to throw 200+ a year. But we shall see.
Let's not forget that this season, he's been.....dominant. 2.47 era, 3.18 fip, 1.06 whip, 10.1 k/9
That's ace stuff right there.
Good article here by fangraphs on him.
(2) Pomeranz is not just a rental. He's under control for two and a half more seasons. He should do very well in arbitration this and next year, presuming he goes to arbitration. But maybe the Sox will work out a longer term deal with him.
(3) Espinoza is an elite prospect, but still...just a prospect. He's much further away than Benintendi or Moncada, both of whom could likely contribute to the major league club late this year. A million things can happen between now and then. The odds of him actually reaching his ceiling are probably not as high as something happening to him such that he never gets past "tantalizing talent that never quite became what we thought he could be" status. And really, if Pomeranz right now is the Pomeranz that will be the next few years through his prime, what are the odds that Espinoza gets to that level? Not many starting pitchers go 2.47, 1.06, 10.1 on their numbers. Espinoza HOPES to one day put up those numbers in the major leagues. Pomeranz at 27 is doing it right now.
(4) Signing Groome and the upward trend of Kopech means that the Sox have two other dynamic young starting pitchers in the system that could, long term, blunt the loss of Espinoza. And if they can get Pomeranz signed to a longer deal, that gives them two excellent lefties for many years (Price and Pomeranz), which is a very nice foundation upon which to build a rotation. And you can look forward to Groome and Kopech down the road.
(5) One other thing about Pomeranz: If they make the playoffs, suddenly they have four legit starters to throw out there in a playoff series. That's no small thing.
So long story short....at first I was against the deal, because I simply didn't want to give up Espinoza unless the Sox were getting an ace in return (thinking Sale). Pomeranz doesn't have the track record of Sale, and all other things being equal, I'd rather have Sale than Pomeranz, but a closer look at Pomeranz has me feeling very encouraged. The Red Sox are significantly better right now than they were yesterday morning. Pomeranz is a major, major addition.
Just think about what the Sox' 4-5 starters were doing, and replace the #4 numbers with Pomeranz, and this club looks totally different.
I know he's spent serious resources (money and prospects...but isn't that what resources are there for?) to do it, but DDski has added Smith (bummer about the injury, but we all believe he'll be very good ultimately), Kimbrel, and Ziegler to the bullpen, and Price and Pomeranz to the rotation. I'm happy with a rotation of Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, Wright, and Rodriguez. Now hope the bullpen guys get healthy soon and let's see what this team can do.