The Game Goat Thread: Wk 13 vs Eagles

sachmoney · Dec 7, 2015

Penthouse:
Bank Foreclosure

Doghouse:
Tom Brady - I think that it's fair to put him here after he had one of his worst performances in some time. Is he trying to do too much? Forcing throws? That's not the strengths of his game.
Special teams - coverage was awful
The fans - booing a 10-1 team at halftime? Get the fuck out of here. Some Pats fans suck.
Receivers - not singling out LaFell because I thought there were numerous players dropping balls and not making plays but I guess also singling out LaFell since I mentioned him by name

I'm not slating Belichick because I thought that the pooch/drop kick was hilarious in the same way the onsides against Washington was hilarious. Yeah, they lost, but that game was really entertaining. Just laughing this one off and moving onto Houston.

sachmoney · Dec 7, 2015

tims4wins said:
I think the biggest play of the game was the pick on the goal line; he should have thrown that one away.

That play was potentially a 14 point swing.

Erik Hanson's Hook · Dec 7, 2015

j44thor said:
He isn't a kicker, tough to fault him for two plays that he has never tried in a real game. Goes back to the coaches not putting players in the best position to succeed. We assumed Harris made the mistake trying to make a play on the punt last week but given the hiccups in ST again this week I'm not so sure that was on him.

The collective coaching has left a lot of points and cost a lot of points the last two weeks. Not something we had seen the first 10 games when the coaching was near flawless.

Which begs the question: why is he kicking the two most important kicks of the game?

Erik Hanson's Hook · Dec 7, 2015

Byrdbrain said:
It just seems like Bill was trying to get too cute and do something no one else has ever done before.

tims4wins · Dec 7, 2015

It was mentioned early in the thread, but I wanted to bring up the quick snap again on the series that ended with the pick 6. This is a team / organization that does a ton of self scouting. The coaching staff (and Ernie Adams and Caserio) are on top of EVERYTHING. Maybe about 2-3 years ago, the quick snap running play was extremely effective. They were gauging teams with it left and right. But going back to last year, maybe back to 2013 (hard to remember), anecdotally speaking it doesn't seem to work at all. I give McD a ton of leeway generally and think he is an excellent coordinator. I rarely fret about individual play calls. But for the life of me I don't understand why they haven't thrown this one out of the playbook, or at least tweaked it to maybe a play action pass or something. Seems like they go backwards more than forwards in these situations. Probably hard to find good data on this though. One example that comes to my mind is the Ravens playoff game last year when Edelman caught a pass inside the 2, they hurried up and ran, and lost ~ 3 yards.

Super Nomario · Dec 7, 2015

tims4wins said:
It was mentioned early in the thread, but I wanted to bring up the quick snap again on the series that ended with the pick 6. This is a team / organization that does a ton of self scouting. The coaching staff (and Ernie Adams and Caserio) are on top of EVERYTHING. Maybe about 2-3 years ago, the quick snap running play was extremely effective. They were gauging teams with it left and right. But going back to last year, maybe back to 2013 (hard to remember), anecdotally speaking it doesn't seem to work at all. I give McD a ton of leeway generally and think he is an excellent coordinator. I rarely fret about individual play calls. But for the life of me I don't understand why they haven't thrown this one out of the playbook, or at least tweaked it to maybe a play action pass or something. Seems like they go backwards more than forwards in these situations. Probably hard to find good data on this though. One example that comes to my mind is the Ravens playoff game last year when Edelman caught a pass inside the 2, they hurried up and ran, and lost ~ 3 yards.

The problem is that the offensive line can't run block for shit. Philly had their dime defense in on the goal line. Running it there should be a layup. If they can't get a yard there, when can they?

IdiotKicker · Dec 7, 2015

Erik Hanson's Hook said:
Which begs the question: why is he kicking the two most important kicks of the game?

I don't have a major objection to either one of those. The pooch kick needed a little more height and distance, but it was an interesting look and something that no one had seen before, so I don't blame them for trying it to see if they could catch the Eagles panicking. As for the onside kick, it was a pretty good ball that was bobbled OB by Philly, so if that bobble takes a slightly different angle, you have a recovery. You got exactly what you wanted from that kick, a bobble by the opposing hands team, it's just that the bounce off that bobble didn't go the right way.

The key play was the blocked punt for the TD, as that changed momentum going into the half. Geneo Grissom is the culprit there, as he got all kinds of turned around on a stacked alignment up the middle. Ebner sent himself to the right, as the Eagles had a 4x4 alignment with four guys on each side of the long-snapper, so he can choose which way he wants to go. Grissom got sucked in the first guy in his gap instead of taking his regular kick-slides, and ended up double-teaming a guy with Cardona instead of picking up the right man. He's going to get destroyed in film sessions today, and rightly so. It's possible Grissom misheard the protection call, because everyone else picked up properly assuming Ebner going right, but either way, it's on him and no one else.

IdiotKicker · Dec 7, 2015

Also, Ryan Allen has taken a major step back the last two games. Not sure what is going on, as I have to get a look at the tape, but he had some pretty poor punts last night with almost no hang. Need to see what's up there as he had made some big strides over the first 10 game this year.

Red(s)HawksFan · Dec 7, 2015

Just a nitpick as I read through the thread. Ebner's kick was not a "pooch". A pooch is a punt. Ebner executed a drop kick...just like Flutie did for an extra point way back when. You can't punt on a kick-off, so you can't pooch in that situation either.

Clearly it was an attempt to catch the Eagles napping and drop the kick behind their front line but well in front of the normal returners. It wasn't executed perfectly (needed more hang time) but it's a credit to the Eagles special teamers to react and make the play on something there's no way they were prepared for.

I thought it was a reasonable risk since the Eagles offense weren't moving the ball especially well and the net loss if it fails is about 20 yards of field position. That's a kill shot kind of gamble, and it shows signs of trust in the defense that even if it fails, they'll hold the Eagles there and not give up a score. That gamble failed about as much as it could, but that doesn't mean it wasn't thought out.

tims4wins · Dec 7, 2015

As Ebner said post game, both teams threw some stuff at each other that they hadn't seen before; the Eagles handled it better than the Pats. Credit to them.

Re: the drop kick, as others have mentioned the Eagles were immediately in a 3rd and 9 and then converted. The conversion had far more to do with the outcome of the game than the drop kick itself.

m0ckduck · Dec 7, 2015

Super Nomario said:
I think folks are being a little harsh on Brady and McDaniels (who hasn't been singled out but has been lumped in with "coaching"). The offensive line can't run or pass block - discouraging because it's as healthy as it's been all year - and they don't have a single weapon in the passing game who can beat man coverage without scheme help. Almost every big gain was Brady buying time by moving around or McDaniels reaching into his bag of tricks. Neither were perfect today by any means, but the offense would have been dreadful without them.

I agree with this in broad terms— McDaniels didn't suddenly suffer a head injury; he's the same guy just working with a woefully short-handed personnel.

Having said that, I was puzzled by the lack of commitment to the run game. Blount and Boldin together averaged 4.75 YPC-- that's nothing thrilling but decent production given the state of the offense at the moment. In the first four drives— which ended with them holding a 14-0 lead— the play calling was pretty balanced (about 11 run vs. 17 pass by my quick count). Then Philly scored, and starting in NE's 5th drive (a 3-and-out), they seemed to go all pass, except for those running-out-the-clock-but-not-really runs at the end of the half leading up to the blocked punt. I was sure they would start the 2nd half with a renewed commitment to the run, but if anything the play-calling became more pass happy. I don't expect to see a running game once they fall behind by 2 TDs, but part of what got them in the hole was ditching the running game and putting too much pressure on TB, in my estimation.

Along the lines of Dogman2's post about the serious problems being ones that resurface from week to week, I would flag 'lack of confidence in the running game / insistence on winning with the pass' as something to watch moving forward.

DJnVa · Dec 7, 2015

This is a "bury the ball" kind of game.

This one goes on the shelf next to Buffalo' 31-0 win, the KC game last season, and a few others as just one of those WTF games.

That doesn't mean there's no blame to go around, but the bottom line is getting healthy. Boomer was on this morning and said that as frustrating as it is, these games happen. Gotta move on.

I like LaFell, but he simply can't be option 1 (or 1A). It also seems that James White and Brady were on the same page a few times and that bodes well.

JokersWildJIMED · Dec 7, 2015

Besides all of the receivers, I would add James White...he has got to score at the beginning of the second half, going down far too easily at the one. That coming after Danny drops a wide open pass near the goal line. White has shown an annoying habit of going down far too easily.

JimD · Dec 7, 2015

Ed Hillel said:
The Pats have had at least one bad performance against an inferior opponent every single year under Brady/Belichick. Even 2007 had that Ravens game, which they were lucky to win. That's the NFL.

Going back to the Giants game, the Pats have arguably had three bad performances against inferior opponents this year (NYG, BUF, PHI).

IdiotKicker · Dec 7, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Just a nitpick as I read through the thread. Ebner's kick was not a "pooch". A pooch is a punt. Ebner executed a drop kick...just like Flutie did for an extra point way back when. You can't punt on a kick-off, so you can't pooch in that situation either.

Actually, it is a pooch kick. Pooch is just a term for a short kick attempting to drop the ball in before the returners. We did a glossary term on this, and while the drop-kick was an interesting wrinkle, it still is very much a pooch kick, which refers to the goal rather than the specific way the ball is kicked.

Bleedred · Dec 7, 2015

tims4wins said:
It was mentioned early in the thread, but I wanted to bring up the quick snap again on the series that ended with the pick 6. This is a team / organization that does a ton of self scouting. The coaching staff (and Ernie Adams and Caserio) are on top of EVERYTHING. Maybe about 2-3 years ago, the quick snap running play was extremely effective. They were gauging teams with it left and right. But going back to last year, maybe back to 2013 (hard to remember), anecdotally speaking it doesn't seem to work at all. I give McD a ton of leeway generally and think he is an excellent coordinator. I rarely fret about individual play calls. But for the life of me I don't understand why they haven't thrown this one out of the playbook, or at least tweaked it to maybe a play action pass or something. Seems like they go backwards more than forwards in these situations. Probably hard to find good data on this though. One example that comes to my mind is the Ravens playoff game last year when Edelman caught a pass inside the 2, they hurried up and ran, and lost ~ 3 yards.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you that the quick snap has lost some of its utility. But the last time it worked was 3 weeks ago with James White. i.e. his 2nd touchdown of the game against the Bills was a quick snap TD.

Dr. Gonzo · Dec 7, 2015

DrewDawg said:
This is a "bury the ball" kind of game.

This one goes on the shelf next to Buffalo' 31-0 win, the KC game last season, and a few others as just one of those WTF games.

That doesn't mean there's no blame to go around, but the bottom line is getting healthy. Boomer was on this morning and said that as frustrating as it is, these games happen. Gotta move on.

I like LaFell, but he simply can't be option 1 (or 1A). It also seems that James White and Brady were on the same page a few times and that bodes well.

The emergence of White being trusted more by Brady and the coaching staff is the biggest positive from this game. White's pass blocking was really spotty in his first couple of games but the more reps he is getting he seems to be figuring it more. I'm sure the game was a little too fast for him at first but he really seems to be turning the corner. While he doesn't have the elusiveness of Lewis, he is head and shoulders above Bolden on offense.

DJnVa · Dec 7, 2015

JimD said:
Going back to the Giants game, the Pats have arguably had three bad performances against inferior opponents this year (NYG, BUF, PHI).

In fairness, most opponents are considered inferior (that sounds way more arrogant than I mean it to). We generally pull the win out. But we usually do get one of those that we can't figure out and it bites us.

SumnerH · Dec 7, 2015

Erik Hanson's Hook said:
Which begs the question: why is he kicking the two most important kicks of the game?

That's not what "begs the question" means.

http://www.logicallyfallacious.com/index.php/logical-fallacies/61-begging-the-question

j44thor · Dec 7, 2015

IdiotKicker said:
I don't have a major objection to either one of those. The pooch kick needed a little more height and distance, but it was an interesting look and something that no one had seen before, so I don't blame them for trying it to see if they could catch the Eagles panicking. As for the onside kick, it was a pretty good ball that was bobbled OB by Philly, so if that bobble takes a slightly different angle, you have a recovery. You got exactly what you wanted from that kick, a bobble by the opposing hands team, it's just that the bounce off that bobble didn't go the right way.

The key play was the blocked punt for the TD, as that changed momentum going into the half. Geneo Grissom is the culprit there, as he got all kinds of turned around on a stacked alignment up the middle. Ebner sent himself to the right, as the Eagles had a 4x4 alignment with four guys on each side of the long-snapper, so he can choose which way he wants to go. Grissom got sucked in the first guy in his gap instead of taking his regular kick-slides, and ended up double-teaming a guy with Cardona instead of picking up the right man. He's going to get destroyed in film sessions today, and rightly so. It's possible Grissom misheard the protection call, because everyone else picked up properly assuming Ebner going right, but either way, it's on him and no one else.

The first onside kick was a bobble that the Pats recovered. It was not a good kick since it didn't go 10yards and landed right in Zach Ertz hands, he just flat dropped it. NE should have realized going back to the well was not a great idea. The second kick wasn't bobbled at all it was batted out of bounds. I believe it was Ertz again who was probably told to do exactly that if they attempt another onsides kick. There was virtually no chance NE was recovering that once he batted it.

Going for the second onsides was a terrible coaching decision. If you kick it deep and force the three an out Brady would have had great field position with around 2min left.

dcmissle · Dec 7, 2015

tims4wins said:
As Ebner said post game, both teams threw some stuff at each other that they hadn't seen before; the Eagles handled it better than the Pats. Credit to them.

Re: the drop kick, as others have mentioned the Eagles were immediately in a 3rd and 9 and then converted. The conversion had far more to do with the outcome of the game than the drop kick itself.

This is true, and that is on the defense, though converting 3rd and nines is hardly unheard of.

I did not like the call because I didn't think it was necessary and would have preferred better field position. Now in fairness, the Eagles had been able to work it out to the 40 earlier in the game before they fell apart on penalties. But my feeling was that the Pats had woken up in second quarter - 14 to 0 lead -- and the Eagles appeared to be on the ropes. It is easier to operate from your 40 than your 20 or worse. Even if you three and out it, the Pats are likely not getting great field position if you execute the punt. I was hoping for a hold deep in Eagles' territory, and an ensuing drive that gets the Pats up by 17 or 21. Then I think it's a very different game.

Stitch01 · Dec 7, 2015

Second onside was pretty borderline. Id lean towards kicking it deep, but I can see arguments both ways.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Dec 7, 2015

I want to know who the bright boy was that decided not to essentially run out the clock at the end of the first half and instead called for the pass that fell incomplete with .15 left in the half and bad field position anyway. They wound up having to punt, which got blocked for the 6 points.

I mean, how fucking stupid and/or arrogant do you have to be to pull that off? This is what I man by utterly unprepared for the game and clearly overlooking the opponent. What did they really expect to accomplish there? The other guys get paid too, shitheads, try not to treat them with complete contempt. Get off the field at the half and receive the second half kickoff like reasonable people. My God.

Totally amateurish.

BTW the Pats are now the #3 seed in the AFC thanks to yesterday's fiasco. They don't have HFA any more and would have to play on WC weekend. Just what a badly banged-up team needs, an extra playoff game without the week off. Good job, good effort, dipshits.

The KC game last year was 10000x better than yesterday's.

Stitch01 · Dec 7, 2015

Well if they ran the ball on that play Philly would have called timeout and forced them to punt.

Actually maybe they could have just kneeled it out. Id rather have called a TO and actually tried to score, but yeah, if they didn't have to run a play letting it go down to 19 seconds and then passing is bad. Not really because of the once in a blue moon punt block risk, but because it doesn't do anything with the possession.

RedOctober3829 · Dec 7, 2015

Stitch01 said:
Second onside was pretty borderline. Id lean towards kicking it deep, but I can see arguments both ways.

I would have definitely kicked it deep. If they had the ball at the 20, there would have been a better percentage chance of the Eagles running it 3 times and punting then where they got the ball after the onsides kick.

Bleedred · Dec 7, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I want to know who the bright boy was that decided not to essentially run out the clock at the end of the first half and instead called for the pass that fell incomplete with .15 left in the half and bad field position anyway. They wound up having to punt, which got blocked for the 6 points.

I mean, how fucking stupid and/or arrogant do you have to be to pull that off? This is what I man by utterly unprepared for the game and clearly overlooking the opponent. What did they really expect to accomplish there? The other guys get paid too, shitheads, try not to treat them with complete contempt. Get off the field at the half and receive the second half kickoff like reasonable people. My God.

Totally amateurish.

BTW the Pats are now the #3 seed in the AFC thanks to yesterday's fiasco. They don't have HFA any more and would have to play on WC weekend. Just what a badly banged-up team needs, an extra playoff game without the week off. Good job, good effort, dipshits.

The KC game last year was 10000x better than yesterday's.

Denver has to play Cincy, so if the Patriots can take care of business (a tall task in NY against the Jets), then they #1 or #2 seed is well within reach.

IdiotKicker · Dec 7, 2015

j44thor said:
The first onside kick was a bobble that the Pats recovered. It was not a good kick since it didn't go 10yards and landed right in Zach Ertz hands, he just flat dropped it. NE should have realized going back to the well was not a great idea. The second kick wasn't bobbled at all it was batted out of bounds. I believe it was Ertz again who was probably told to do exactly that if they attempt another onsides kick. There was virtually no chance NE was recovering that once he batted it.

Going for the second onsides was a terrible coaching decision. If you kick it deep and force the three an out Brady would have had great field position with around 2min left.

Cooper was the one who batted it out of bounds. And it's not an easy play to make to do that, you can see he is actually being upended pretty much as it is happening and there's a very good chance that it takes a weird bounce because of how it is tumbling and ends up back in the field of play. Furthermore, this play had zero effect on the outcome of the game.

There's a lot to be unhappy about on special teams - specifically the blocked punt and the punt return TD. But the pooch kick and this onside kick are both areas that were complete non-factors in the outcome, and I don't have a problem with a team doing creative things, in particular when you have an offense that has been inconsistent without a number of its weapons.

dcmissle · Dec 7, 2015

I had the sense they were caught between on that last possession of the first half, not sure or bipolar.

Agree on the second on side attempt. Most of us were calling for a deep kick. We got it back, but only b/c of a turnover you can't count on, and then with worse field position than if you had been able to hold after kicking deep.

BigSoxFan · Dec 7, 2015

The SNF game gave me comfort that Pitt will be able to win at least one game against Cincy and Denver. Next week really is a huge game for this team. I'm comfortable projecting wins against Tenn and Miami but the road games against the Texans and Jets will be huge grinds.

Dogman · Dec 7, 2015

SumnerH said:
That's not what "begs the question" means.

http://www.logicallyfallacious.com/index.php/logical-fallacies/61-begging-the-question

I had this exact reply all set up and decided to read the thread. Damn you, Sumner.

j44thor · Dec 7, 2015

Stitch01 said:
Second onside was pretty borderline. Id lean towards kicking it deep, but I can see arguments both ways.

Really? You just recovered one, what are the odds of recovering two onsides kicks in the same game? Has to be less than 5%. You also have an offense that struggles mightily to move the ball and a defense that for the most part has played well. If you don't recover the onsides kick, which is an extremely low % play to begin with, you at best have to hope Brady can march 80+ yards in around 2min which assumes you stop them.

The alternative is that you force PHI to play from the 20 hopefully force a 3 and out and give Brady a much shorter field to work with. PHI is likely to run 3 times from the 20 since they can't afford a turn over or stopping the clock from that field position. Not the same situation when PHI has the ball at the 40 since they know at worst they are punting to the NE 20 and forcing Brady to drive 80 yards with no timeouts.

dcmissle · Dec 7, 2015

IdiotKicker said:
Cooper was the one who batted it out of bounds. And it's not an easy play to make to do that, you can see he is actually being upended pretty much as it is happening and there's a very good chance that it takes a weird bounce because of how it is tumbling and ends up back in the field of play. Furthermore, this play had zero effect on the outcome of the game.

There's a lot to be unhappy about on special teams - specifically the blocked punt and the punt return TD. But the pooch kick and this onside kick are both areas that were complete non-factors in the outcome, and I don't have a problem with a team doing creative things, in particular when you have an offense that has been inconsistent without a number of its weapons.

A mantra has been, with all the injuries on offense, put it on the defense. With good reason. Sad thing about yesterday is that Pats did not seem to trust it

j44thor · Dec 7, 2015

IdiotKicker said:
Cooper was the one who batted it out of bounds. And it's not an easy play to make to do that, you can see he is actually being upended pretty much as it is happening and there's a very good chance that it takes a weird bounce because of how it is tumbling and ends up back in the field of play. Furthermore, this play had zero effect on the outcome of the game.

There's a lot to be unhappy about on special teams - specifically the blocked punt and the punt return TD. But the pooch kick and this onside kick are both areas that were complete non-factors in the outcome, and I don't have a problem with a team doing creative things, in particular when you have an offense that has been inconsistent without a number of its weapons.

What???????

This couldn't be further from the truth. Pats recover their win expectancy goes up significantly. Pats kick deep as opposed to PHI recovering, their win expectancy certainly goes up. Saying an onsides kick has zero outcome on the game is one of the dumber things I've seen posted.

Dogman · Dec 7, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
I want to know who the bright boy was that decided not to essentially run out the clock at the end of the first half and instead called for the pass that fell incomplete with .15 left in the half and bad field position anyway. They wound up having to punt, which got blocked for the 6 points.

I mean, how fucking stupid and/or arrogant do you have to be to pull that off? This is what I man by utterly unprepared for the game and clearly overlooking the opponent. What did they really expect to accomplish there? The other guys get paid too, shitheads, try not to treat them with complete contempt. Get off the field at the half and receive the second half kickoff like reasonable people. My God.

Totally amateurish.

BTW the Pats are now the #3 seed in the AFC thanks to yesterday's fiasco. They don't have HFA any more and would have to play on WC weekend. Just what a badly banged-up team needs, an extra playoff game without the week off. Good job, good effort, dipshits.

The KC game last year was 10000x better than yesterday's.

Well, as you know, Den and Cincy play each other and both teams play Pitt. So, let's not go with the "they are the #3 hosting a game on Wild Card weekend" just yet. Lots of football to be played before the season is over.

Yep, it was amateurish but I'm glad it happened now instead of after a bye in the playoffs, similar to the Jets game after a 14-2 campaign. Get healthy now, play fundamental football. Special teams will be better, receivers will run the routes and catch the ball better. We know the Patriots are a much better team than this.

DJnVa · Dec 7, 2015

j44thor said:
Really? You just recovered one, what are the odds of recovering two onsides kicks in the same game? Has to be less than 5%.

Once the first successful onside kick is successful, is it really more difficult to recover a second? Recovering any onside kick is hard, but I don't think that AFTER the first is successful, the next becomes harder. It's always hard.

Super Nomario · Dec 7, 2015

m0ckduck said:
I agree with this in broad terms— McDaniels didn't suddenly suffer a head injury; he's the same guy just working with a woefully short-handed personnel.

Having said that, I was puzzled by the lack of commitment to the run game. Blount and Boldin together averaged 4.75 YPC-- that's nothing thrilling but decent production given the state of the offense at the moment. In the first four drives— which ended with them holding a 14-0 lead— the play calling was pretty balanced (about 11 run vs. 17 pass by my quick count). Then Philly scored, and starting in NE's 5th drive (a 3-and-out), they seemed to go all pass, except for those running-out-the-clock-but-not-really runs at the end of the half leading up to the blocked punt. I was sure they would start the 2nd half with a renewed commitment to the run, but if anything the play-calling became more pass happy. I don't expect to see a running game once they fall behind by 2 TDs, but part of what got them in the hole was ditching the running game and putting too much pressure on TB, in my estimation.

Along the lines of Dogman2's post about the serious problems being ones that resurface from week to week, I would flag 'lack of confidence in the running game / insistence on winning with the pass' as something to watch moving forward.

They ran the ball well very early in the game - Blount had 3 carries for 24 yards on the first two drives - and then were ineffective after that. Bolden's line is basically those "running-out-the-clock-but-not-really" runs - he had 2 carries for 20 yards there, just 1 for 2 otherwise. Blount averaged just 3 YPC after that, and even the early runs involved him cutting back against the D because the designed hole wasn't there. On the two first-half scoring drives, they ran 3 times for 7 yards and 5 times for 14 yards (plus a two-yard Brady sneak) - those were pretty much all passing the ball.

We've seen McDaniels run the ball and stick with the run when it works, like in both Indy games last year. I don't think the issue is confidence or lack of commitment, I think the issue is that the running game is bad.

j44thor said:
Going for the second onsides was a terrible coaching decision. If you kick it deep and force the three an out Brady would have had great field position with around 2min left.

If you force a three-and-out, which is no given. I like the onside because it gives you two chances to win - recover the onside and you're in great position, and you still have a chance to force a three-and-out and get the ball back. Kick it off and you put it all on the D.

DJnVa · Dec 7, 2015

IdiotKicker said:
Furthermore, this play had zero effect on the outcome of the game.

Can you expand on this, because I'm trying to see it and I can't...

j44thor · Dec 7, 2015

DrewDawg said:
Once the first successful onside kick is successful, is it really more difficult to recover a second? Recovering any onside kick is hard, but I don't think that AFTER the first is successful, the next becomes harder. It's always hard.

I think the batting of the ball out of bounds was a direct result of the first kick being recovered. PHI seemed to coach it better the second time around so yes I would say it is more difficult to recover the second one since they were better prepared.

Toe Nash · Dec 7, 2015

Ed Hillel said:
Nink was putrid for most of the game, but that's who he is. He'll make those inexplicable game-changing plays, but he'll have periods where he just blows. Thought he was going to make that huge play, but Peters shoved him away, so what's left of his game to tonight was ugly.

Blah.

Huh? Ninkovich was pretty good I thought -- the defense didn't hold the edge on the first series but they corrected that quickly and Nink was a big part of that. Sproles made some runs but they were up the middle mostly. I thought for sure he was going to hit Bradford at the end and he didn't but oh well; it was a miracle that play even happened.

The defense is the best part of this team right now and they can definitely win games with it, but not when they're not on the field because of 3 return TDs. There's not really any other goat than that.

ST has always been very good for the Pats and I can't see this as anything other than an aberration. Harder to get the bye now, but still doable. And no one else got hurt. Not really worried long-term.

j44thor · Dec 7, 2015

Super Nomario said:
If you force a three-and-out, which is no given. I like the onside because it gives you two chances to win - recover the onside and you're in great position, and you still have a chance to force a three-and-out and get the ball back. Kick it off and you put it all on the D.

If Brady had some of his weapons I might agree with this but when you don't get the onsides kick you are reasonably looking at Brady having to drive at least 80 yards for a TD to win the game with under 2min. Kicking it deep should ensure that Brady has to drive significantly less distance giving him more plays to work with.

Toe Nash · Dec 7, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
If the special teams coach isn't fired by tomorrow morning I will be shocked and angry. 3 special teams TDs allowed today, absolutely unacceptable and not an NFL-level performance. Fire his ass and move on.

You know how people whine about Pats fans being spoiled? Yeah.

I will add to my previous post and say that if BB liked the fight they showed at the end of the Chiefs game last year, he'd love the fight the team showed after being down 21. They got to practice their insane comeback and got really close to having a drive to tie it. They even forced a fumble to get one last chance when basically the only thing the Eagles were trying to do was not fumble. Talk about situational football -- they may have learned more last night than they did in the first 5 games.

Even if it results in them having to play an extra game, this could be the kind of game that seems horrendous at the time, but we end up looking back on fondly.

IdiotKicker · Dec 7, 2015

j44thor said:
What???????

This couldn't be further from the truth. Pats recover their win expectancy goes up significantly. Pats kick deep as opposed to PHI recovering, their win expectancy certainly goes up. Saying an onsides kick has zero outcome on the game is one of the dumber things I've seen posted.

You misunderstood what I was saying. I'm saying that the actual outcomes we saw here after these plays had no material impact on the game. Obviously if the Pats recover the onside kick, it is a boon to them. But neither of us can say what would have happened if plays had gone differently, because there are an infinite number of options. What I can tell you is that these plays weren't the reason the Patriots lost. The punt block and punt return were.

Stitch01 · Dec 7, 2015

j44thor said:
Really? You just recovered one, what are the odds of recovering two onsides kicks in the same game? Has to be less than 5%. You also have an offense that struggles mightily to move the ball and a defense that for the most part has played well. If you don't recover the onsides kick, which is an extremely low % play to begin with, you at best have to hope Brady can march 80+ yards in around 2min which assumes you stop them.

The alternative is that you force PHI to play from the 20 hopefully force a 3 and out and give Brady a much shorter field to work with. PHI is likely to run 3 times from the 20 since they can't afford a turn over or stopping the clock from that field position. Not the same situation when PHI has the ball at the 40 since they know at worst they are punting to the NE 20 and forcing Brady to drive 80 yards with no timeouts.

The Eagles throwing from their own 20 makes more sense than throwing it from their own 40 because they can punt and make the Pats go the full 80 yards from their 40. I was a little surprised the Eagles threw there, if they missed the Pats have 2:30 to go 80 yards with a TO for the 2 minute warning instead of 1:50 and no TO. I would expect the Eagles to throw at least one down from their own 20....kicking it back to the 40 or so with 1:50 left vs. 2:30 left isn't that much of an advantage.

Having an offense that is struggling to move the ball and struggling to make plays in the downfield passing game makes a shorter field more valuable. Recovering the onside kick means they can run a regular offensive series given timeout and field position. If the Eagles go three and out, the Pats get the ball back 20-30 yards further back, which is meaningful, particularly given clock.

I don't care what the odds are for recovering an onside kick twice in a game, unless you are arguing that since they recovered one kick their chances of recovering another one are lower for some football reason. Onside kicks aren't recovered super often anyways, but the sunk cost of one already being recovered shouldn't really factor in a decision to onside kick again.

I would have kicked deep, but I just think its somewhat borderline, I like lining up to onside there and then trying to kick it just in front of the goal line to force a return attempt with the hands team and set up. With 3 TO's I pretty much always kick deep. With 1 TO Id pretty much always onside. 2, Id kick deep but its not like kicking a FG down 4 or any of the other nonsense that drives me nuts about coaches on a weekly basis. I don't think the coaching staff covered themselves in glory yesterday, but I don't think any individual decision was a super glaring error. They're, like the offense, just out of sorts right now and don't seem to have a great feel for the team or the game situation.

DJnVa · Dec 7, 2015

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
If the special teams coach isn't fired by tomorrow morning I will be shocked and angry. 3 special teams TDs allowed today, absolutely unacceptable and not an NFL-level performance. Fire his ass and move on.

They didn't allow 3 special teams TDs.

Turrable · Dec 7, 2015

If you're honestly sad that we might "only" get the three seed you need to follow a different sport, simple as that.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Dec 7, 2015

Toe Nash said:
You know how people whine about Pats fans being spoiled? Yeah.

I will add to my previous post and say that if BB liked the fight they showed at the end of the Chiefs game last year, he'd love the fight the team showed after being down 21. They got to practice their insane comeback and got really close to having a drive to tie it. They even forced a fumble to get one last chance when basically the only thing the Eagles were trying to do was not fumble. Talk about situational football -- they may have learned more last night than they did in the first 5 games.

Even if it results in them having to play an extra game, this could be the kind of game that seems horrendous at the time, but we end up looking back on fondly.

Oh please. They scored 14 garbage time points against a shitty 4-7 team at home. That shouldn't impress anyone.

That game fucking sucked and was pretty clear evidence they didn't prepare properly at all. And they've gone from having the inside track on the #1 seed and HFA to very possibly having to play on WC weekend. There are no silver linings to be found anywhere in that game, as it should be. It was a dumpster fire from beginning to end and put a huge dent in this team's postseason chances, because their playoff road very likely got exponentially more difficult.

And I'm so disgusted because they usually DON'T take teams lightly, they don't make such egregious unforced errors in coaching, and they usually make sure to take care of business as big favorites at home.

Stitch01 · Dec 7, 2015

IdiotKicker said:
You misunderstood what I was saying. I'm saying that the actual outcomes we saw here after these plays had no material impact on the game. Obviously if the Pats recover the onside kick, it is a boon to them. But neither of us can say what would have happened if plays had gone differently, because there are an infinite number of options. What I can tell you is that these plays weren't the reason the Patriots lost. The punt block and punt return were.

Plus the ten points of equity Brady ended up lighting on fire with that interception. Three plays cost the team like three touchdowns of equity. There's other analysis to do about how the team played and what it might mean going forward, but as to why they lost this game its pretty simple, they royally fucked up three plays as badly as possible.

DJnVa · Dec 7, 2015

ShaneTrot said:
I think guys are not getting open and Brady is holding the ball longer, thus the hits and sacks are piling up.

Yep---and this is because instead of teams rolling their defense towards guys like Gronk and Edelman, it's being rolled towards someone like LaFell. Instead of getting the #3 DB, he's getting more attention and better players in his area now. He can't beat them consistently. That's just not who he is. He's a good matchup when defenses are concentrating elsewhere. That's why Gronk and Edelman's health is of paramount importance. They dictate everything a defense does in their coverages.

Stitch01 · Dec 7, 2015

Wilbur like hot takes ITT.

IdiotKicker · Dec 7, 2015

Stitch01 said:
Plus the ten points of equity Brady ended up lighting on fire with that interception. Three plays cost the team like three touchdowns of equity. There's other analysis to do about how the team played and what it might mean going forward, but as to why they lost this game its pretty simple, they royally fucked up three plays as badly as possible.

Exactly. You can clearly point to three terribly-executed plays as the reasons why this game turned out the way it did. The defense did its job, giving up just 14 points. But you can't give up 21 points in the other two phases and expect to compete.

The Game Goat Thread: Wk 13 vs Eagles

Member

Member

Member

Member

PN23's replacement

Member

Member

Member

Member

PN23's replacement

Member

Dorito Dawg

Blinded by Borges

Member

Member

Member

Member

Dorito Dawg

Malt Liquor Picker

Member

Deflatigator

Member

Throw Momma From the Train

Member

Member

Member

Member

Deflatigator

Member

Yukon Cornelius

Member

Deflatigator

Member

Yukon Cornelius

Dorito Dawg

Member

Dorito Dawg

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Member

Dorito Dawg

Member

Throw Momma From the Train

Member

Dorito Dawg

Member

Member