I tried not to knee jerk reaction this trade, and avoided posting anything until I'd had a chance to ruminate a bit. Here are some bullet point thoughts:
-I feel like the Red Sox gave up more in prospect value than I would have believed necessary to upgrade the pen, even with an elite level guy like Kimbrel. As has already been stated above, Margot and Guerra are top 100 prospects, and both will likely play in the majors. I just don't like giving up minor league assets of this quality unless the return truly changes the team's chances dramatically in the near term, regardless of the monetary obligations inherent in the contract of the incoming player. This remains my primary reaction to the trade: the Red Sox gave up too much young talent for the likely return, even though I think Kimbrel will be very good over the next 3 seasons.
-Kimbrel is 27, healthy, in his prime and arguably the best controlled arm the Red Sox could have traded for in the majors. That does factor into the equation. Chapman is arguably similar, but he's only got 1 year of control, and I doubt he'd sign after 2016 for 2/24, or at a similar rate, to be comparable to Kimbrel's deal. If DD had offered a package of Margot and Allen for Chapman, knowing there was only 1 year of control coming, would that have been better? I don't think so.
-I believe the age consideration is a large one when it comes to the front office. Could they have just paid O'Day 3/37, basically what Kimbrel is owed, and just lost the $ but not the prospects? Of course, and I have to believe they weighed that option heavily. They must have drawn the conclusion that Kimbrel's age makes him a much safer investment than any of the relievers on the market who are free agents, and that the sheer dominance of Kimbrel's performance made him that much less of a performance risk.
-I believe that the fact that the Red Sox have Betts/Bradley and Bogaerts impacted their thinking on moving a CF and a ss in trade. They didn't see a likely home for either guy in the next 2-3 seasons with the major league club, and decided to use those assets to fill another area of major need: the pen. I disagree with this thinking, because the value of those players shouldn't be predicated on the current major league roster. They have value inherent in their abilities that can translate to trade capital, and that value, in my view, was higher than what they received in Kimbrel.
-Margot and Guerra are coming off arguably their best seasons as minor leaguers, and their values may never be higher. I like both players, who figure to have the defensive chops to stay in CF and at ss respectively, but it is possible that they won't ever be more valuable based on their performance than they are this offseason. Both could arguably continue to develop and become capable major leaguers, but it is also possible that they'll fizzle and never reach their promise. At least DD moved these players while their stock was at a high point, so I give him credit for that aspect of the trade.
-Kimbrel's contract shouldn't be difficult for him to outperform in terms of value. He's been worth 3.2, 3.3, 2.2, 2.2 and 1.5 WAR over the past 5 seasons. Even if you say he's a 1.5 WAR pitcher, with wins costing about 7-8 mil (and rising) per win, his contract should allow for him to outperform his salary. 1.5 WAR should be about 12 mil, which is his average salary the next 3 seasons. If he's anything like his pre 2015 self (and his numbers after early May suggest that he is exactly that), a 2.2 WAR pitcher is worth about 20 mil per season. That is high end performance and impact, and something the Red Sox just didn't have in 2015 out of their pen. Koji is wonderful, and I could easily see him pitching at a high level in 2016, and hope he will, but they had nobody else coming close to this level of performance on their roster.
-This acquisition, prospect cost aside, probably improves an area of need in as impactful a way as they could have arguably hoped to achieve. I know there is no viewing of the trade without seeing the costs, but if the focus is on how the 2016 team could be improved most dramatically, Kimbrel's addition was probably near the top of the list of guys who could be traded for or signed as a free agent to upgrade the pen. If the pool of all major league relievers was considered, there are maybe 5 names (Betances, Davis, Chapman, Miller and maybe Jansen) that would rank as impactful in the same range that Kimbrel has been over the past 3 seasons. Perhaps the Yankees would trade Miller, but there are reasons the other 4 guys are either not available, have age/injury concerns or have fewer years of contractural control, making them less attractive than Kimbrel.
DD identified his man and paid the freight to bring him in.
-I believe this is going to be hard to articulate, but I think DD has built a reputation in baseball for being willing to pay a high price for elite talent, and that helps him in negotiations with other GMs. If you build a rep of always getting the best end of the deal, and for paying far less value than would be perceived in the industry for the value you received, eventually, the other GMs stop taking your calls and are less willing to deal with you. By paying "full price" or more when it comes to deals like this, DD makes this transaction very easy to say yes to, and for the other GM in the deal to look good in the process. He's done this in a number of trades over his career (getting Miggy, getting Scherzer, trading Fister are some bigger deals of note), and I have to believe that his reputation has been helped by this willingness to put a big package on the table to get what he is after. It is no secret that he's been in on getting some of the biggest fish that were on the trade market when the Tigers were looking to win it all (getting Sanchez, getting Price), and I would like to believe that his rep of dealing fairly and with his best chips helped him get those trades done. Paying full price in most cases must earn him GM credibility, and perhaps it should. Trying to see this deal in a broader perspective: perhaps trading more value than the likely return in this transaction will help him in a future trade opportunity that the Red Sox can't even see right now. I'd like to believe this is more of a consideration than we can probably appreciate or measure.
-DD is not done yet. The 2016 Red Sox just got a lot better. The cost was significant, and I agree was more than I personally would have paid to make the trade, but at least I'm confident the team is better as a result. I'm willing to give DD the rest of the offseason to build this roster, and reserve judgement on his work until the entire picture can be appreciated.
-This trade is not the beginning of the end of the Sox farm system. This does not signal a trend that all the young Red Sox minor league assets are going to be traded for short term help. The sky is not falling on a deep, talented crop of minor leaguers. There are still plenty of young players who will populate the major league team as they mature, and there are more young talents who can be utilized in trade talks for the biggest talents in the game, if DD is so inclined. The team has not used its only bullets to get a single closer.
-Koji's reaction, and willingness to take on the 8th inning without making a stink about it, is quite wonderful to see. Koji was a huge part of the 2013 World Series title (they don't win it without his work that year), and he's been awesome since then until his freak wrist injury. He's only got one year left on his deal, and perhaps in his career, and he could have reasonably agitated to finish his run as the Red Sox closer based on his body of work in this city, Kimbrel or no Kimbrel. He acted very professionally, and with great class and humility in moving aside. I'd like to believe that the front office was in contact with him as the trade was being made to insure they handled the situation in a similar manner, but even in the absence of that step, Koji does the right thing and puts the team first. Thank you Koji.
Sorry for the length of this post. Just wanted to try to get it all out in one place to summarize my reaction.
