Your 2015 Boston Red Sox

[Fireball Fred]

Sox have too many OFs, too many RHHs. RH power is in demand. These are the main reasons to seek trades for seeking trades of veterans. Trading Cespedes, specifically, would reallocate resources to relieve a logjam, and cash in an asset that is "overvalued" in the current market.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Upton had a 133 wRC+ this year, and Steamer projects him for 3.1 WAR next year. Betts had a 130 wRC+ this year, and Steamer projects him for 2.7 WAR next year. It's fair to say that the error bars are a little larger for the Betts projection, but there's nothing the least bit snark- worthy about suggesting that Betts could be the better player of the two, and possibly as early as next year.

EDIT: MakMan beat me to it.

Betts is projected as a 2.7 win player over 97 games.

Upton is projected as a 3.1 win player over 143 games.

Betts is already projected to be the better player. At his projected wins per game, he would be a 4 win player over 143 games.

 

[nvalvo]

God, we do love our prospects. Betts will be better than Upton, Castillo will be better than Cespedes, Owens is worth trading to Red for Cueto straight up, Bogaerts is a mix of Jeter and Nomar, Swihart will be the next Varitek, Cecchini will be the next Longoria, RDLR is the next Pedro and on and on.
 
You got to love it.

 
Varitek put up a .742 OPS at 25 in Tacoma and Pawtucket in 1997, when the league average line in the PCL was .293/.365/.465. 
 
Swihart put up an .810 OPS at 22 between Portland and Pawtucket, when the league OPSes are about a hundred points lower.
 
Varitek never had an offensive season in the minors as impressive as either Swihart's 2013 or 2014. It's likely therefore that Swihart will be a better hitter than Varitek; while Varitek was highly respected as a defensive catcher, Baseball America just named Swihart the best defensive catcher in the minors, which suggests he should be at least decent in that regard. It's not at all implausible that Swihart could be a better player than Varitek.  

 

[OCD SS]

If the Sox were going to go in on a Braves OFer, wouldn't it be much more likely that they'd go after the one that is younger, a LHH, plays stellar RF defense, and by ATL's GM's own admission would cost less?
 
The Sox were not in on Heyward because of their own OF glut, and he would at least have balanced out the line up; I think the idea that they'd even target Upton doesn't really make much sense in that context.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Unless they decide a new shift replacing a 3b with a 4th OF is the way to go it makes no sense. Betts could be better than Upton next year. Castillo could be better than Cespedes. Why have them splitting time with Vic?

Ummm...uhhhh... You know what I've got nothing. Just stunned, total scilence. There is no way that Betts and Castillo are better than Upton or Cespedes in 2015. None

 

[MakMan44]

Ummm...uhhhh... You know what I've got nothing. Just stunned, total scilence. There is no way that Betts and Castillo are better than Upton or Cespedes in 2015. None

Did you completely skip the posts where we point out that he's not the only one who believes at least half of that?

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see both of them pace Cespedes either.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Ummm...uhhhh... You know what I've got nothing. Just stunned, total scilence. There is no way that Betts and Castillo are better than Upton or Cespedes in 2015. None

You are overvaluing Upton tremendously.

Uptons fWAR last 3 seasons are 2.1, 3.1, 3.9 in 149-154 games each season.

Mookie's fWAR last season was 1.9 in 52 games. And oh by the way he was learning to play CF on the fly. At the MLB level. In a very difficult CF.

It's not only possible that Mookie could be better than Upton, Mookie has *already been* better than Upton on a per game basis, and will likely be better again next season.

 

[lxt]

 
Varitek put up a .742 OPS at 25 in Tacoma and Pawtucket in 1997, when the league average line in the PCL was .293/.365/.465. 
 
Swihart put up an .810 OPS at 22 between Portland and Pawtucket, when the league OPSes are about a hundred points lower.
 
Varitek never had an offensive season in the minors as impressive as either Swihart's 2013 or 2014. It's likely therefore that Swihart will be a better hitter than Varitek; while Varitek was highly respected as a defensive catcher, Baseball America just named Swihart the best defensive catcher in the minors, which suggests he should be at least decent in that regard. It's not at all implausible that Swihart could be a better player than Varitek.  

I'm sorry let me clarify. I was not being sarcastic when I made this statement. As fans we love the team and its players be they ML or prospects. If a player is a bump he's our bump. Let some who is not a fan speak poorly of one of our own and we are all over them. It's simple they are our boys and nothing more.
 
I for one hope all our dreams and hopes for the prospects turn out to be true.
 
Edit: I for one think Varitek was one of the best defensive catchers to come around. I know his arm was shit but his ability to call a game, guide the staff, frame pitches and play defense, lead and occasionally send one over the wall made him great. What was it four or five no hitters he caught.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Did you completely skip the posts where we point out that he's not the only one who believes at least half of that?

Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see both of them pace Cespedes either.

No I read them. Your pointing out Betts best case scenario for 2015 and going off a bad season for Upton. It's crazy to believe that in 2015 Betts will be better. I mean what stops someone from pointing to Xander's last month of the season and saying that he is building towards a better 2015 than Tulo?

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

No I read them. Your pointing out Betts best case scenario for 2015 and going off a bad season for Upton. It's crazy to believe that in 2015 Betts will be better. I mean what stops someone from pointing to Xander's last month of the season and saying that he is building towards a better 2015 than Tulo?

 
You know, a reasoned critique of the Steamer projection system would be interesting. This is not.

 

[MakMan44]

No I read them. Your pointing out Betts best case scenario for 2015 and going off a bad season for Upton. It's crazy to believe that in 2015 Betts will be better. I mean what stops someone from pointing to Xander's last month of the season and saying that he is building towards a better 2015 than Tulo?

I didn't create Steamer, so "best case scenario for Mookie/bad season for Upton" suggestion doesn't fly. People much smarter than the pair of us are predicting this. 
 
For the record though, 2014 was Upton's best season since his career year in 2011. I agree with SFF, I think you're overrating Upton. He's good, but there's a decent chance Mookie is better next season. 
 
EDITamnit Savin. 

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

No I read them. Your pointing out Betts best case scenario for 2015 and going off a bad season for Upton. It's crazy to believe that in 2015 Betts will be better. I mean what stops someone from pointing to Xander's last month of the season and saying that he is building towards a better 2015 than Tulo?

.354 BABIP? 1.9% BB rate? 10:1 k:bb?

None of Betts peripherals indictate any type of regression in 2015.

His BABIP was normal for a speedy guy. His K rate and BB rate were both excellent but they did see a bump up (K) and down (BB) from his minor league numbers, which is expected.

There is no reason at all to suspect that Betts will not continue down the path he laid out in 2014. In fact, one could argue that he will be better given that he was learning a brand new position when he was up last year

 

[MakMan44]

I'm sorry let me clarify. I was not being sarcastic when I made this statement. As fans we love the team and its players be they ML or prospects. If a player is a bump he's our bump. Let some who is not a fan speak poorly of one of our own and we are all over them. It's simple they are our boys and nothing more.
 
I for one hope all our dreams and hopes for the prospects turn out to be true.
 
Edit: I for one think Varitek was one of the best defensive catchers to come around. I know his arm was shit but his ability to call a game, guide the staff, frame pitches and play defense, lead and occasionally send one over the wall made him great. What was it four or five no hitters he caught.

You're losing me here. It's not just us, here on the board, that are predicting that Mookie is going to better than Upton. 

 

[lxt]

 
You know, a reasoned critique of the Steamer projection system would be interesting. This is not.

Upton
Season Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
2015 Steamer 143 625 26 76 81 8 10.5 % 24.6 % .198 .316 .262 .344 .460 .353 126 1.3 19.5 -9.5 3.1
Betts
2015 Steamer 97 425 8 57 43 19 9.2 % 11.8 % .135 .315 .290 .358 .425 .348 120 0.9 10.4 0.7 2.7
Cespedes
2015 Steamer 130 565 22 72 83 7 6.5 % 21.1 % .200 .311 .272 .324 .473 .347 119 0.4 12.5 -2.9 3.1
Castillo
Not list ?
 
Edit: May come out a little messy

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Upton Season Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WA 2015 Steamer 143 625 26 76 81 8 10.5 % 24.6 % .198 .316 .262 .344 .460 .353 126 1.3 19.5 -9.5 3.1
Betts 2015 Steamer 97 425 8 57 43 19 9.2 % 11.8 % .135 .315 .290 .358 .425 .348 120 0.9 10.4 0.7 2.7
Cespedes 2015 Steamer 130 565 22 72 83 7 6.5 % 21.1 % .200 .311 .272 .324 .473 .347 119 0.4 12.5 -2.9 3.1
Castillo
Not list ?

No Castillo because no data (MLB or milb). At least that's what Dave Cameron said in one of his recent chats

 

[MakMan44]

Castillo isn't listed because there's not enough data to create a projection for him. I think Dave Cameron has suggested something like 2 WAR is a reasonable expectation. 
 
EDIT: Damn you SFF. 

 

[lxt]

Castillo isn't listed because there's not enough data to create a projection for him. I think Dave Cameron has suggested something like 2 WAR is a reasonable expectation. 
 
EDIT: Damn you SFF. 

Would it be safe to assume Castillo would put up numbers similar to Bogaerts
 
Season Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
2015 Steamer 113 480 13 56 54 4 7.7 % 20.2 % .148 .306 .260 .323 .409 .324 104 0.3 2.2 -0.2 1.9

 

[67WasBest]

Would it be safe to assume Castillo would put up numbers similar to Bogaerts
 
Season Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR
2015 Steamer 113 480 13 56 54 4 7.7 % 20.2 % .148 .306 .260 .323 .409 .324 104 0.3 2.2 -0.2 1.9

I'd think the Betts comp would be closer.  Similar games and similar skills at a similar position.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

 
You know, a reasoned critique of the Steamer projection system would be interesting. This is not.

The streamer projection also doesn't take any type of sophmore slump into consideration. Believe me I hope that Betts plays up to the lofty projections it's just dangerous to assume he's going to be just as good as someone like Upton. Projections are fun and all but I believe that WMB and Bradley were projected to be much better than they actually were in 2014.

Castillo is not going to out produce Cespedes, he doesn't have to though he just needs to be 75% of Ellsbury. If he can replace Ellsbury then it's worth the money

 

[Cesar Crespo]

No one is assuming anything. I said could.The difference in position and SB between the Cubans could tilt it Rusney's way. There were projections posted earlier that didn't give counting stats for Castillo but gave him an identical slashline to Yoenis.

I don't think Yoenis is that hard a bar to clear either.

 

[nvalvo]

Projections are fun and all but I believe that WMB and Bradley were projected to be much better than they actually were in 2014.
 

 
Steamer projected Mookie Betts last year, too. He beat his projected wOBA by 80 points in his time in MLB. That's projections.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Lost in all this silliness about Upton/Betts is the relative cost of each. The whole idea is idiotic.
 
Spend the money elsewhere...like on a lh bat / 3B  or another frontline pitcher, you know like, something the Sox actually need.

 

[MakMan44]

This is probably more for the 2016 Red Sox, but Johnny Venters just got released. On his 3rd TJS, but maybe you try and sign him to a MiL deal with an option for next season? He was filthily when he was healthy.  

 

[Drek717]

The streamer projection also doesn't take any type of sophmore slump into consideration. Believe me I hope that Betts plays up to the lofty projections it's just dangerous to assume he's going to be just as good as someone like Upton. Projections are fun and all but I believe that WMB and Bradley were projected to be much better than they actually were in 2014.

Castillo is not going to out produce Cespedes, he doesn't have to though he just needs to be 75% of Ellsbury. If he can replace Ellsbury then it's worth the money

I would argue that Castillo is highly likely to out-produce Cespedes.  Why:
1. Far superior defense at a higher defensive value position.  I'm not crazy about the win value attached to defensive metrics as they stand today, but Cespedes is a hot and cold fielder at a position where no one wants spectacular, just steady.  He is at best net neutral defensively.  In limited time Castillo looks like a legitimate plus defender.
2. Base stealing/base running.  Castillo projects to be a 20-30 SB guy at a high success rate.  That adds a lot of value to a player.
 
Add that Cespedes is a mid-700's OPS guy and Castillo is projected to land in the low to mid .700's for his OPS and you've got a formula where a comparable or slightly worse bat teamed with significantly better base running and fielding give you a better overall player.
 
Same with the Upton/Betts comparisons.  Betts is an all-around better player.  Upton hits the baseball over the wall more often.  It isn't hard to see why Betts has real potential to out-produce Upton next season.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

The bigger Red-Sox-related issue re:Upton to me is that he is a fairly similar player to Cespedes - good RH power, questionable defense - only he's also better at getting on base (Steamer projects them to be roughly equivalent in 2015, for what that's worth). Both of them have reputations that outpace their actual real-world value. They're both FAs after this coming season, but I haven't heard if Upton is as set on testing the market as Yoenis. So I guess I'm just wondering if this means the Red Sox won't be able to get as much for Cespedes as some here have been hoping for.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I would argue that Castillo is highly likely to out-produce Cespedes.  Why:
1. Far superior defense at a higher defensive value position.  I'm not crazy about the win value attached to defensive metrics as they stand today, but Cespedes is a hot and cold fielder at a position where no one wants spectacular, just steady.  He is at best net neutral defensively.  In limited time Castillo looks like a legitimate plus defender.
2. Base stealing/base running.  Castillo projects to be a 20-30 SB guy at a high success rate.  That adds a lot of value to a player.
 
Add that Cespedes is a mid-700's OPS guy and Castillo is projected to land in the low to mid .700's for his OPS and you've got a formula where a comparable or slightly worse bat teamed with significantly better base running and fielding give you a better overall player.
 
Same with the Upton/Betts comparisons.  Betts is an all-around better player.  Upton hits the baseball over the wall more often.  It isn't hard to see why Betts has real potential to out-produce Upton next season.

Over the long haul it's possible that he beats out Cespedes. I look at this and see the JBJ and WMB situations of last year. Fans know for a fact that these young guys are going to outplay veterans but when it doesn't happen the fans just crucify the player. Upton and Cespedes aren't the greatest defensive players around, in fact I would probably take Betts and Castillo over both in terms of defense. At the plate it's no contest though. The problem with Castillo is again a small sample size. If Betts outproduces Upton in a contract year then awesome, if Castillo is a better hitter than Cespedes then great. Believe me I want that to happen but I'm not figuring it's at all likely.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

The bigger Red-Sox-related issue re:Upton to me is that he is a fairly similar player to Cespedes - good RH power, questionable defense - only he's also better at getting on base (Steamer projects them to be roughly equivalent in 2015, for what that's worth). Both of them have reputations that outpace their actual real-world value. They're both FAs after this coming season, but I haven't heard if Upton is as set on testing the market as Yoenis. So I guess I'm just wondering if this means the Red Sox won't be able to get as much for Cespedes as some here have been hoping for.

My problem is why are we arguing over if Castillo or Betts is going to be better than Cespedes when the Red Sox currently have all three? Is it that important to add more prospects to the system? Or to play Nava? Someone help me out with the fascination on trading him please. It doesn't make the 2015 Red Sox lineup better.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

My problem is why are we arguing over if Castillo or Betts is going to be better than Cespedes when the Red Sox currently have all three? Is it that important to add more prospects to the system? Or to play Nava? Someone help me out with the fascination on trading him please. It doesn't make the 2015 Red Sox lineup better.

I think people like the idea because they think it is a way to add an elite pitcher without giving up one of those prospects everyone is so attached to (I think these people are at best overestimating his market, personally). And other people just don't like his sub-.300 on-base percentages (this I can understand).

 

[Drek717]

Over the long haul it's possible that he beats out Cespedes. I look at this and see the JBJ and WMB situations of last year. Fans know for a fact that these young guys are going to outplay veterans but when it doesn't happen the fans just crucify the player. Upton and Cespedes aren't the greatest defensive players around, in fact I would probably take Betts and Castillo over both in terms of defense. At the plate it's no contest though. The problem with Castillo is again a small sample size. If Betts outproduces Upton in a contract year then awesome, if Castillo is a better hitter than Cespedes then great. Believe me I want that to happen but I'm not figuring it's at all likely.

1. Castillo isn't a "young guy", he's 27 and a well developed player who had success in the same league Cespedes played in before leaving Cuba, and didn't look the least bit over matched in any sample from last season.  JBJ has never hit true ML pitching.  He's beat up ST pitching once.  WMB meanwhile isn't analogous as he's never been truly healthy since his first strong ~200 ABs at the ML level (and as a result looks to have developed a shit ton of bad habits at the plate since).
 
2. It isn't just defense.  Both Castillo and Betts carry huge positive value as base runners.  Both in stealing bases and being able to go 1st to 3rd/2nd to home on singles.  The Red Sox were missing the Ellsbury/Victorino base running X factor like mad last year and Betts/Castillo have similar skill.  That isn't nearly as volatile as batting production either.
 
3. Why do you say it's "no contest" at the plate?  Cespedes is a career mid-.700's guy.  Most project Castillo to hit around that level.  Cespedes will hit a dozen more home runs, so I guess if that matters to you, sure, it's "no contest".  Meanwhile Betts put up an .812 OPS despite a slow start and inconsistent playing time when first called up.  His August and September months were better than every season of Upton's career except 2009 and 2011.  Cespedes has been a mid-700's OPS guy consistently after his first season when he took the league by storm with an .861 OPS.  It is highly likely that Mookie Betts is the best bat in this quartet next season.  For any team that values OBP over SLG that isn't even up for much debate.
 
Maybe they regress or fall on their faces in a larger sample.  But then Maybe Cespedes or Upton get hurt.  Baseball is full of variables that can't be controlled or predicted.  As a total package however both Castillo and Betts compare favorably to Cespedes and/or Upton and cost far less with far more control.  They are also ready for the majors in 2015, so it's not like 2014 where the club pushed Jackie Bradley into the starting lineup despite only half a season in AA, half a season in AAA, and a small but rather poor ML sample from 2013.  The warning signs were there on Bradley, the exact opposite indications are available for Betts.
 
 

My problem is why are we arguing over if Castillo or Betts is going to be better than Cespedes when the Red Sox currently have all three? Is it that important to add more prospects to the system? Or to play Nava? Someone help me out with the fascination on trading him please. It doesn't make the 2015 Red Sox lineup better.

Some people hate his OBP.  Most rational people understand that the Sox have too many OFs to start 2015 with and the trade values are basically Betts >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Cespedes >>> Castillo >>> Nava >> Craig > Victorino.
 
No one wants to trade Betts because he looks like a cornerstone player.  No one wants to trade Castillo because he was just signed to a market dictated contract.  The Sox chose to win the bidding and take the gamble on him.  Having seen the return of Heyward however, it is quite clear that Cespedes has significant value.  If the OF logjam can be solved while also getting a good #2 starter option obviously that is an ideal solution and the only way you can kill two birds with that one stone is trading Cespedes.
 
The smart money move is shopping Cespedes and only moving him if the return is a legitimate #2 starter for 2015.  Otherwise the starting OF is Cespedes, Castillo, Betts and they'll just have to figure out what to do with Craig, Nava, and Victorino.  And ultimately I'd expect the club, whether they trade Cespedes or not, to enter the 2016 corner OF market unless Jackie Bradley or Bryce Brentz really breaks through.
 
After next season here are the appealing outfielders schedule to hit the free agent market:
Yoenis Cespedes
Jason Heyward
Justin Upton
Alex Gordon (I'll believe him taking the $13.25M player option when I see it, dude would be giving up tens of millions)
Dexter Fowler
Matt Joyce
 
Carlos Quentin, Kyle Blanks, and Ben Zobrist will also likely be free agents, any of whom could, if 2015 is a solid year for them, put themselves on the radar as a worthwhile LF option/part of a LF platoon.
 
OF help is one of the few things that we can expect to be available next winter, might as well see what we have internally and be ready to spend on one of the premier guys next winter if and only if they're needed.

 

[Apisith]

Mookie is so damn underrated by guys considering trades right now. He's as untouchable a prospect as you get these days, some guy who projection systems are saying are a 4-5 WAR player costing basically fuck all. The awesome thing is his projections are actually based on his time in the majors. It's not like Xander's or JBJ's who had great miLB track records only.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

1. Castillo isn't a "young guy", he's 27 and a well developed player who had success in the same league Cespedes played in before leaving Cuba, and didn't look the least bit over matched in any sample from last season.  JBJ has never hit true ML pitching.  He's beat up ST pitching once.  WMB meanwhile isn't analogous as he's never been truly healthy since his first strong ~200 ABs at the ML level (and as a result looks to have developed a shit ton of bad habits at the plate since).
 
2. It isn't just defense.  Both Castillo and Betts carry huge positive value as base runners.  Both in stealing bases and being able to go 1st to 3rd/2nd to home on singles.  The Red Sox were missing the Ellsbury/Victorino base running X factor like mad last year and Betts/Castillo have similar skill.  That isn't nearly as volatile as batting production either.
 
3. Why do you say it's "no contest" at the plate?  Cespedes is a career mid-.700's guy.  Most project Castillo to hit around that level.  Cespedes will hit a dozen more home runs, so I guess if that matters to you, sure, it's "no contest".  Meanwhile Betts put up an .812 OPS despite a slow start and inconsistent playing time when first called up.  His August and September months were better than every season of Upton's career except 2009 and 2011.  Cespedes has been a mid-700's OPS guy consistently after his first season when he took the league by storm with an .861 OPS.  It is highly likely that Mookie Betts is the best bat in this quartet next season.  For any team that values OBP over SLG that isn't even up for much debate.
 
Maybe they regress or fall on their faces in a larger sample.  But then Maybe Cespedes or Upton get hurt.  Baseball is full of variables that can't be controlled or predicted.  As a total package however both Castillo and Betts compare favorably to Cespedes and/or Upton and cost far less with far more control.  They are also ready for the majors in 2015, so it's not like 2014 where the club pushed Jackie Bradley into the starting lineup despite only half a season in AA, half a season in AAA, and a small but rather poor ML sample from 2013.  The warning signs were there on Bradley, the exact opposite indications are available for Betts.

1) Well since I'm 30 anyone under that to me is a young guy, including myself of course! I mention him as a young guy because he is in all reality still an older "prospect" also since all 29 other teams have had the ability to scout him finally the league is going to adjust so he is going to have some bumps in a hopefully successful road. WMB was healthy to start the year and sucked, he came back late in the season and wasn't good at all. Brock Holt was the only saving grace for the infield and that probably will not continue at that level.

2) Base running I will certainly give you as Cespedes isn't exactly Billy Hamilton on the base paths. Even if you're slumping it's something that can still be used to contribute provided that you can get on base. His OBP isn't awesome by any stretch but you have to evaluate players on everything not just OBP. If you're going to have one under .300 you better be able to drive the ball a ton which he can do.

3) I still don't see how you consider it a near certainly that Betts is the best bat out of the four next year. These games are not played on a computer, teams will adjust and Betts will have to adjust on his end. He could very easily have a season like Boegarts did in 2014. I value the big picture but I also realize that teams adjust in real life and now have a book on these players.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Mookie is so damn underrated by guys considering trades right now. He's as untouchable a prospect as you get these days, some guy who projection systems are saying are a 4-5 WAR player costing basically fuck all. The awesome thing is his projections are actually based on his time in the majors. It's not like Xander's or JBJ's who had great miLB track records only.

See this I disagree on. Boegarts impressed a lot in the playoffs when it actually matters. It also allowed teams to see him and adjust. He had to deal with a lot of change in 2014 and now has an offseason to adjust to the teams that adjusted to him. Remember that Xander was arguably the best player on the team in September. I haven't seen one projection for 2015 that states Betts will have a WAR of 4 or 5, where are you seeing this?

 

[Apisith]

Steamer had him at 4-5 WAR a few weeks ago. I see they've updated their projections now to reduce his games played and PA. If he gets 130+ games, he's a 4+ WAR player.

Bill James has him as our best player next year in another projection.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I haven't seen one projection for 2015 that states Betts will have a WAR of 4 or 5, where are you seeing this?

 
Steamer has him at 2.7, but in about 60% of a season's worth of playing time. So if you buy that estimate of his production per unit opportunity, but think he'll get a full season's worth of opportunity, then you wind up with about a 4.5-win projection.

 

[Apisith]

Xander posted an OPS+ of 87 during his cup of coffee in 2013. He was good in the playoffs but those are tiny, tiny samples.

Mookie posted a WRC+ of 132 last year in 52 games. He should be untouchable. The funny thing is projection systems are protecting him for a WRC+ of only 120 this year. The sample size difference for his projections vs Xander's is huge and significant. His track record is far better than Xander's.

There was an article on fangraphs that ranked prospects by protected WAR a few weeks ago. Mookie didn't qualify because he had played 50+ games. No other prospect was projected for a WAR of more than 3.5. Mookie was at 4.3.

 

[jimbobim]

The Saturated OF Trade and FA Market 
 
1) J Upton 
2) Matt Kemp 
3) Cespedes 
4) Jay Bruce 
5) Melky 
6) Tori Hunter 
7) Nava 
8) Ethier/ Crawford 
 
Until some of the above are moved or signed I don't see Cespedes getting moved. 

 

[Drek717]

1) Well since I'm 30 anyone under that to me is a young guy, including myself of course! I mention him as a young guy because he is in all reality still an older "prospect" also since all 29 other teams have had the ability to scout him finally the league is going to adjust so he is going to have some bumps in a hopefully successful road. WMB was healthy to start the year and sucked, he came back late in the season and wasn't good at all. Brock Holt was the only saving grace for the infield and that probably will not continue at that level.

WMB's vision has been fucked for a while now and he hasn't been able to adjust to using the corrective lenses provided, so no, he hasn't really been 100% for quite some time.  Also, Will was always a high upside guy with a mediocre mL track record until he looked to have put it all together in 2012.  Since then injuries, inconsistent playing time, and a series of what appear to be self-sabotaging adjustments have basically completely derailed his career.  He was never a Jackie Bradley level prospect, let alone a Bogaerts/Betts/Castillo.

2) Base running I will certainly give you as Cespedes isn't exactly Billy Hamilton on the base paths. Even if you're slumping it's something that can still be used to contribute provided that you can get on base. His OBP isn't awesome by any stretch but you have to evaluate players on everything not just OBP. If you're going to have one under .300 you better be able to drive the ball a ton which he can do.

I'm not evaluating Cespedes strictly on OBP, hence all the references to OPS.  He and Castillo are generally predicted to land pretty close on OPS.  One with a higher BA and OBP, the other with a higher SLG.  Having zero preference for which of those you get, the fact that Castillo is then a much better defender at a higher value position and a much better base runner puts him in a better position to perform in 2015.  Also, like you said, defense and base running can carry you through a slump at the plate.  There are fewer luck based variables in fielding and base running, so those skills have an inherent safety net compared to hitting.

3) I still don't see how you consider it a near certainly that Betts is the best bat out of the four next year. These games are not played on a computer, teams will adjust and Betts will have to adjust on his end. He could very easily have a season like Boegarts did in 2014. I value the big picture but I also realize that teams adjust in real life and now have a book on these players.

I said he was "highly likely" which he is.  When he was actually a full time player in 2014 (August and September) he posted an OPS better than anything Upton has done since his big 2011 season.  Better than anything Cespedes has done since his first year.  He hits for a significantly higher average, has the speed to take advantage of that additional contact (legging singles into doubles and doubles into triples), kills the field on OBP (and I said if OBP matters it isn't a contest because he's probably going to beat the closest guy of the group by 20+ points of OBP next year), and after a slow power start came on to hit for a SLG within the same ballpark as Upton and Cespedes' career numbers.
 
Mookie Betts is a fucking animal dude.  If he was still a prospect he would easily land in the top 10 for all of baseball, and the only reason he wouldn't be #1 with a bullet is because of his height.  Throughout his minor league career his numbers completely blow what Xander, Oscar Taveras, Byron Buxton, etc. have every done out of the water.  He moved up levels last year like AA and AAA were fucking jokes to him, and then came "back to earth" at the ML level when he put up one of the best second halves to the the season in the entire league.
 
Picture if Dustin Pedroia had a little more power in his swing, speed almost on par with Jacoby Ellsbury, and the plate discipline he had at 23 when he was only 21.  That is what Mookie Betts has shown us with real production.  Not scouting prognostications or speculation based on his tools and how he might grow.  He was a god among men throughout the minors, and a man among boys on last year's Red Sox squad when he was 21.  21.  TWENTY ONE.

 

[Saints Rest]

So rather than just rehashing possible adds and subtractions, I thought it might be wise to look at the current, under-contract, depth chart, as of today, for 2015.

Here is the breakdown of Boston's 40-man roster (per redsox.com)

Pitchers (17): Matt Barnes, Drake Britton, Clay Buchholz, Rubby De La Rosa, Edwin Escobar, Heath Hembree, Joe Kelly, Tommy Layne, Edward Mujica, Anthony Ranaudo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara, Allen Webster, Alex Wilson, Brandon Workman, Steven Wright.

Catcher (4): Dan Butler, Ryan Lavarnway, Blake Swihart, Christian Vazquez.

Infielders (10): Xander Bogaerts, Garin Cecchini, Sean Coyle, Juan Francisco, Brock Holt, Will Middlebrooks, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw, Jemile Weeks.

Outfielders (8): Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Bryce Brentz, Rusney Castillo, Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino.

Designated hitter (1): David Ortiz.

Here's how I would order them with more specific breakdowns by position:
(I've allowed for some players to be listed at multiple positions)
C -- Vazquez, Butler, Lavarnway, Swihart
1B -- Napoli, Nava, Craig, Shaw
2B -- Pedroia, Weeks, Holt, Betts, Coyle
SS -- Bogaerts, Weeks
3B -- Francisco, Holt, WMB, Cecchini
LF -- Cespedes, Nava, Craig, Brentz
CF -- Castillo, Betts, Vic, JBJ
RF -- Betts, Vic, Nava, Craig
DH -- Ortiz, everyone else

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

So rather than just rehashing possible adds and subtractions, I thought it might be wise to look at the current, under-contract, depth chart, as of today, for 2015.
Here is the breakdown of Boston's 40-man roster (per redsox.com)
Pitchers (17): Matt Barnes, Drake Britton, Clay Buchholz, Rubby De La Rosa, Edwin Escobar, Heath Hembree, Joe Kelly, Tommy Layne, Edward Mujica, Anthony Ranaudo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara, Allen Webster, Alex Wilson, Brandon Workman, Steven Wright.
Catcher (4): Dan Butler, Ryan Lavarnway, Blake Swihart, Christian Vazquez.
Infielders (10): Xander Bogaerts, Garin Cecchini, Sean Coyle, Juan Francisco, Brock Holt, Will Middlebrooks, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Travis Shaw, Jemile Weeks.
Outfielders (8): Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Bryce Brentz, Rusney Castillo, Yoenis Cespedes, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava, Shane Victorino.
Designated hitter (1): David Ortiz.
Here's how I would order them with more specific breakdowns by position:
(I've allowed for some players to be listed at multiple positions)
C -- Vazquez, Butler, Lavarnway, Swihart
1B -- Napoli, Nava, Craig, Shaw
2B -- Pedroia, Weeks, Holt, Betts, Coyle
SS -- Bogaerts, Weeks
3B -- Francisco, Holt, WMB, Cecchini
LF -- Cespedes, Nava, Craig, Brentz
CF -- Castillo, Betts, Vic, JBJ
RF -- Betts, Vic, Nava, Craig
DH -- Ortiz, everyone else

I assume by "order by" you are talking about the ability to contribute in 2015. If that is the case I would move Cecchini to the front of the 3b bin. The only other quibble would be about Lavarnway who is a backup C/DH at this point .. In Pawtucket.

 

[lxt]

We can only fit 12 position players on the team. I'm going with the assumption that the Sox will continue using 13 pitchers. So we have about 18 position players available, something's got to give.
 
I think using Cespedes, Craig & Nava as trading chips to acquire a quality starter (Put name here of your favorite) is justifiable with Castillo, Betts, JBJ & Victorino. We all agree something has to be done about 3B. Presently, the Sox have 5/$95 contract offer out to Panda with the possibility that they are also talking to Hanley & Headley's agents. Adding any of those three frees up Middlebrooks & Francisco for trade or release in Francisco's case. The rest of the gang: Pedroia; Napoli; Ortiz; Bogaerts; Holt; Weeks & Vasquez seem to be players who will remain. Guys like Brentz, Cecchini, Swihart, Shaw, Butler, Marrero & Lavarway (Can't believe we haven't traded him) still have time to remain in the minors.
 
That gives us: Napoli; Ortiz; Betts; Castillo; Bogaerts; Pedroia; Vasquez; Victorino; Weeks; JBJ; a catcher (Butler or Swihart can be slotted here) and 3B ... 12 position players. Considering this group there is plenty of potential they will be more productive offensively than last years team (Streamer & Markov combined has them around 800 - 850 runs - I used Headley at 3B), they're a solid running group (Assuming 1st to 3rd, 2nd to home, not base stealing) and are a good defensive bunch. Looks good to me.
 
It's all about pitching, pitching and more pitching ... Lester & Miller provide a starting point in rebuilding the rotation and providing additional support in the pen.

 

[ivanvamp]

IMO, it's crazy to have a 13 man pitching staff. I don't even like a 12 man staff. To me, 11 is the number.

 

[MoGator71]

They're not going to carry 13 pitchers all year. They may on occasion fart around with the roster as they have in the past when one of those "blow out the bullpen" games happens and they need a fresh bp arm available, but 13 all year isn't happening.
 
Question, that may have been asked/answered somewhere else...why do people seem to think we NEED more LH bats? I understand the reverse - you wouldn't want an everyday lineup featuring 7 Trot Nixons because lefty starters and LOOGYs would kill you. But that's not really an issue with RHHs, and there aren't a ton of Chad Bradford type ROOGYs out there anyway. Am I missing something? Or is a balanced L/R lineup just one of those things that get parroted so much that they're accepted as fact, like saying you need speed in the leadoff spot etc.

 

[BarrettsHiddenBall]

Mookie Betts is a fucking animal dude.  If he was still a prospect he would easily land in the top 10 for all of baseball, and the only reason he wouldn't be #1 with a bullet is because of his height.  Throughout his minor league career his numbers completely blow what Xander, Oscar Taveras, Byron Buxton, etc. have every done out of the water.  He moved up levels last year like AA and AAA were fucking jokes to him, and then came "back to earth" at the ML level when he put up one of the best second halves to the the season in the entire league.
 
Picture if Dustin Pedroia had a little more power in his swing, speed almost on par with Jacoby Ellsbury, and the plate discipline he had at 23 when he was only 21.  That is what Mookie Betts has shown us with real production.  Not scouting prognostications or speculation based on his tools and how he might grow.  He was a god among men throughout the minors, and a man among boys on last year's Red Sox squad when he was 21.  21.  TWENTY ONE.

"Throughout his minor league career" ignores the 658 OPS he put up in 2012; that leaves us with exactly two excellent years, one of which was spent exclusively at A/A+ ball. He's also a year older than Xander at each step along the way. He's going to be a very good player, but you're both overselling his pedigree, and underestimating how tough the jump to MLB is. It's entirely likely he has a down year, or just goes into a funk for a couple of months.
 
Also, the earlier comment about Heyward informing a possible Cespedes return of a #2 starter -- whoa there. Heyward has significantly outperformed Cespedes (~5 bWAR to ~3bWAR over the past three) and is only 25 with (yeah I know) tremendous upside potential. Cespedes is what he is -- a power bat with enough speed in the field to make up for his defensive eccentricities, most of the time. And with all the other names jimbob posted above, the Sox would be selling in a buyers market. I agree that of the Betts/Castillo/Cespedes trio he's the one to move, I just think you're going to be disappointed with the return.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

"Throughout his minor league career" ignores the 658 OPS he put up in 2012; that leaves us with exactly two excellent years, one of which was spent exclusively at A/A+ ball. He's also a year older than Xander at each step along the way. He's going to be a very good player, but you're both overselling his pedigree, and underestimating how tough the jump to MLB is. It's entirely likely he has a down year, or just goes into a funk for a couple of months.
 
Also, the earlier comment about Heyward informing a possible Cespedes return of a #2 starter -- whoa there. Heyward has significantly outperformed Cespedes (~5 bWAR to ~3bWAR over the past three) and is only 25 with (yeah I know) tremendous upside potential. Cespedes is what he is -- a power bat with enough speed in the field to make up for his defensive eccentricities, most of the time. And with all the other names jimbob posted above, the Sox would be selling in a buyers market. I agree that of the Betts/Castillo/Cespedes trio he's the one to move, I just think you're going to be disappointed with the return.

I think you're severely underestimating the return that power hitters are getting in this market.

I've noticed this a lot lately. People still think that pitching is the most expensive commodity in baseball (in terms of trades). It's not. Power hitters are. The entire paradigm is shifting from overvaluing pitchers to now overvaluing hitters.

That's what happens when offense is continually suppressed for 3 straight years. Now you've got a Brandon McCarthy who you can sign for 3/42 that will give you results that aren't that much different than a James Shields. The gap between an excellent pitcher and a good pitcher is getting smaller, while the existence of power hitters are diminishing by the year.

Do you realize that, from 2011-2014, there have been 4 hitters who OPS'd over 1.000? Two of those are Miggy, and one is Chris Fluke Davis. Before that? 4 in 2010, 3 in 2009. Now we are lucky to have ONE.

Not only that, in 2014, 20 players hit more than 25 HR. In 2010, just 5 seasons ago, that number was 36. Almost cut in half.

This is simple supply and demand. There is such a small amount of power hitters in the game, and the amount of power hitters availavle in the market is even smaller. A Cespedes type player is going to land you far, far more than you think. It's going to be a Heyward type return.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I think you're severely underestimating the return that power hitters are getting in this market.

I've noticed this a lot lately. People still think that pitching is the most expensive commodity in baseball (in terms of trades). It's not. Power hitters are. The entire paradigm is shifting from overvaluing pitchers to now overvaluing hitters.

That's what happens when offense is continually suppressed for 3 straight years. Now you've got a Brandon McCarthy who you can sign for 3/42 that will give you results that aren't that much different than a James Shields. The gap between an excellent pitcher and a good pitcher is getting smaller, while the existence of power hitters are diminishing by the year.

Do you realize that, from 2011-2014, there have been 4 hitters who OPS'd over 1.000? Two of those are Miggy, and one is Chris Fluke Davis. Before that? 4 in 2010, 3 in 2009. Now we are lucky to have ONE.

Not only that, in 2014, 20 players hit more than 25 HR. In 2010, just 5 seasons ago, that number was 36. Almost cut in half.

This is simple supply and demand. There is such a small amount of power hitters in the game, and the amount of power hitters availavle in the market is even smaller. A Cespedes type player is going to land you far, far more than you think. It's going to be a Heyward type return.

You have just summed up the reasoning of not trading Cespedes if the Red Sox are going to contend in 2015

 

[MakMan44]

Not really. Since he's not great at getting on base, trying to extract a good pitcher in a trade is probably a better route because it'll have a greater impact on their chances of competing. Especially with Nap being fully healthy, I'd argue that Cespedes is their most expendable piece.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

You have just summed up the reasoning of not trading Cespedes if the Red Sox are going to contend in 2015

Only way they should trade him is if they are going hard after JUp. That's it.

 

[SoxFanForsyth]

Not really. Since he's not great at getting on base, trying to extract a good pitcher in a trade is probably a better route because it'll have a greater impact on their chances of competing. Especially with Nap being fully healthy, I'd argue that Cespedes is their most expendable piece.

Cespedes has a good chance of being a 30+ HR bat at Fenway and in the AL East, particularly now that Chili Davis is our hitting coach. He's never going to be a huge OBP guy, but he is a huge presence in the lineup behind Ortiz.

A 3-6 of Ortiz Cespedes Sandoval Napoli is one of the most potent in baseball. And, as I had mentioned, in such an offensive suppressed era, particularly with no power bats in our system, Cespedes has immense value to the Sox.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Not really. Since he's not great at getting on base, trying to extract a good pitcher in a trade is probably a better route because it'll have a greater impact on their chances of competing. Especially with Nap being fully healthy, I'd argue that Cespedes is their most expendable piece.

So which is a better team

Cespedes Lester and secondary free agent pitcher

Or

Nava Lester and whoever the Sox get for Cespedes.

I'm using Lester as a place holder here but you get the picture. Sure if Cespedes can get Hamels Walker or Iwakmura than you have to listen naturally. But if you want to contend in 2015 outside of that you'll have a better shot with Cespedes than Nava or Craig. If you're going to make the arguement that Nava is a better player than you also have to make the argument that Nava is worth an ace in a trade right now since Cespedes was worth Jon Lester. Which is a flawed argument.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

"Throughout his minor league career" ignores the 658 OPS he put up in 2012; that leaves us with exactly two excellent years, one of which was spent exclusively at A/A+ ball. He's also a year older than Xander at each step along the way. He's going to be a very good player, but you're both overselling his pedigree, and underestimating how tough the jump to MLB is. It's entirely likely he has a down year, or just goes into a funk for a couple of months.

 
It's a familiar story by now (or should be) that he responded to that disappointing first professional season with an intensive winter of woodshedding his swing to keep his bat in the zone longer. He's been destroying pitchers ever since.
 
As for the possibility he has a down year, anything can happen, but if you go back and look at comps for the kind of performance he turned in as a 21-year-old rookie, I think the smart money says he'll at least have a substantial career, and quite likely an outstanding one. Players who hit the ground running the way he did at that young an age don't usually just fizzle out. There are exceptions, but not many of them.