Most projections systems that I've seen have them pegged roughly a .500 record and third place in the division. Projections should not be taken as the gospel, as we saw with our team last year. But I think a .500 record realistically takes in to account not only everything that can go right for them (Ellsbury, McCann, Nova, Pineda, maybe Sabathia and/or Tanaka) but also the players who are uncertainties (Sabathia, Tanaka, Jeter, Teixeira, Beltran, Soriano, Kelly Johnson, Brian Roberts, the bullpen outside of David Robertston).