McCutchen still seems like the best comp. Most similar body type. Cutch's HR by age:
Age-HR
22-12
23-16
24-23
25-31
26-21
27-25
28-23
Xander and Mookie in 2016
- Thread starter The Gray Eagle
- Start date
Age-HR
22-12
23-16
24-23
25-31
26-21
27-25
28-23
You could also point to the frequent Mookie comp Andrew McCutchen, who had similar stats to Mookie's through his first 1120 PA (Mookie at 1118), except with more plate discipline but less power: 28 HR to Mookie's 37, .174 to .199 ISO. McCutchen had a 31-HR season at age 25, but has mostly been in the low-to-mid 20s, and has averaged 24 per 162 games over his career. I suspect Mookie will end up somewhere between that and Sheffield's 32 per 162, but probably closer to McCutchen.
EDIT: I owe you a beer, tims4wins.
Sure, the presumption I state explicitly is that we have no reason to presume the same defensive numbers. It's only to state that the one fact we do have is that the RF full season positional adjustment is 10 runs lower than CF. We have no real way of knowing whether Mookie is exactly 10 DRS better in RF than he is in CF thus equalizing the position adjustment. So again, it's just there for fun.
Noticed something at the game tonight that you don't see on television. Following the 3rd inning of each game the infield grounds crew comes out to "freshen up" the infield. While everyone is going about their normal warmup routine there is Xander standing between 1st and 2nd slapping hands with EVERY member of the grounds crew as they are exiting the field. I find that pretty awesome.
X is on pace for 235 hits, 128 runs, 53 doubles, 16 homers and 101 rbi, if anyone cares about traditional stats.
And 8.4 bWAR if you care about more currently fashionable metrics.
And 8.4 bWAR if you care about more currently fashionable metrics.
Xander has a .380 BABIP over his last 914 PA.
The amount of shallow outfield bloop singles he's been able to finesse over the last 2 years would make Jeter blush.
The amount of shallow outfield bloop singles he's been able to finesse over the last 2 years would make Jeter blush.
His at bat in the 10th last night was extraordinary. He should probably have his own thread by now since he's knocking on the MVP door.
Between how he is hitting the ball after a sudden drop off, and Bogaerts' defense falling off terrible from early in the season - basically a statue at SS - do you think he is injured more than "worn down"?
Interesting that the beginning of the dropoff corresponds almost exactly with this play. Is it possible that there's lingering soreness in that right thumb, and if so, could that be affecting his swing? Not sure how it would affect his SS range, though.
Between how he is hitting the ball after a sudden drop off, and Bogaerts' defense falling off terrible from early in the season - basically a statue at SS - do you think he is injured more than "worn down"?
I've seen/sensed the same, although after being super aggressive v Chapman yesterday, he did take the 0-2 pitch to RF and hit it pretty well. He might just be tired and/or a little less focused. Dog days of summer and all that.
Some Mookie stats
“@JLundbladESPN: Mookie Betts is the youngest player with 3 HR & 8+ RBI in a game since Fred Lynn in 1975 (also for the Red Sox)”
“@TimBritton: Betts joins Michael Saunders as the only major-leaguers with 8 RBIs in a game this year. Last Red Sox with 8+ in a game: Bill Mueller, 2003.”
“@IanMBrowne: The only other @redsox player to have two three-homer games in the same season? Ted Williams, in 1957.”
Would not shock me if an extension for Mookie is one of the top priorities this offseason.
“@JLundbladESPN: Mookie Betts is the youngest player with 3 HR & 8+ RBI in a game since Fred Lynn in 1975 (also for the Red Sox)”
“@TimBritton: Betts joins Michael Saunders as the only major-leaguers with 8 RBIs in a game this year. Last Red Sox with 8+ in a game: Bill Mueller, 2003.”
“@IanMBrowne: The only other @redsox player to have two three-homer games in the same season? Ted Williams, in 1957.”
Would not shock me if an extension for Mookie is one of the top priorities this offseason.
I don't think today has any impact on the likelihood of an extension. If they weren't planning on working toward that yesterday, they aren't planning on it now. If there are extension talks, it will be because he's having his second straight fantastic season, while exhibiting an encouraging amount of growth. Today is probably going to go down as the best statistical game of his career. You don't react to something like that when planning the long term future of your franchise.
That said, it's really fun watching him play the game and it looks like Benintendi plans to nip at Mookie's heels as he charges forward toward the MVP voting over the next few seasons.
Mookie is hitting an awful lot like Trout.
Mookie: .313/353/561/914 - 34 2B, 5 3B, 26 HR, 91 R, 84 RBI, 18 SB, 3 CS
Trout: .311/423/550/973 - 26 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 90 R, 75 RBI, 19 SB, 2 CS
Mookie: .313/353/561/914 - 34 2B, 5 3B, 26 HR, 91 R, 84 RBI, 18 SB, 3 CS
Trout: .311/423/550/973 - 26 2B, 3 3B, 22 HR, 90 R, 75 RBI, 19 SB, 2 CS
1. Of course today has some impact on the likelihood of an extension. It was one further step in establishing another season great performance, which would make an extension more attractive to the team.
2. The post you quoted said exactly nothing specific about today's game being the impetus in the way you're characterizing. Not even close, actually.
3. On the substance here: no shit, dude.
If they're not trying to extend these guys after the season, they're morons.
I don't think they're morons.
I think we're likely having the almost identical conversation next year about Benintendi, JBJ, and Edro.
I don't think they're morons.
I think we're likely having the almost identical conversation next year about Benintendi, JBJ, and Edro.
Without looking, which of these players has the best season (by fWAR) in a Red Sox uniform?
Mookie Betts
Manny Ramirez
David Ortiz
So far the trio have a grand total of 0 MVP awards between them. So far.
Mookie Betts
Manny Ramirez
David Ortiz
David Ortiz 6.3 in 2007
Manny Ramirez had a 5.9 split evenly between the Sox and the Dodgers in 2008, and a 7.5 for Cleveland in 1999. His best Sox-only season was 5.8 in 2003.
Mookie is currently at 5.7 with 113 GP. Fangraphs projects him for another 1.4 WAR the rest of the way which really doesn't seem at all unlikely. He's phenomenal.
And this is after a slightly "slow" start to the season. Since May 18th, Mookie has a ridiculous 342/379/630 line, even with a not-unreasonable 335 BABIP. He's 23 years old.
Manny Ramirez had a 5.9 split evenly between the Sox and the Dodgers in 2008, and a 7.5 for Cleveland in 1999. His best Sox-only season was 5.8 in 2003.
Mookie is currently at 5.7 with 113 GP. Fangraphs projects him for another 1.4 WAR the rest of the way which really doesn't seem at all unlikely. He's phenomenal.
And this is after a slightly "slow" start to the season. Since May 18th, Mookie has a ridiculous 342/379/630 line, even with a not-unreasonable 335 BABIP. He's 23 years old.
So far the trio have a grand total of 0 MVP awards between them. So far.
Mookie had pretty high walk rates in the minors and I wouldn't be surprised if his BB% doubled next year. I guess it depends on how pitchers approach him going forward. He clearly has the plate discipline for it.
Mookie's profile is a bit weird. You'd be hard pressed to find hitters with the amount of power Mookie has displayed with such low BB% and K% rates while maintaining a high BA.
Post-Seattle Beltre and Vladamir Guerrero fit the mold, but are way more aggressive hitters.
Early Nomar is a decent comp - particularly his 1998 season. .262 Nomar ISO to Betts .242 as well. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=190&position=SS
It's probably more a function of the lineup, but for some reason pitchers keep challenging him. 1 IBB in his career, and his 51.5% pitches in the zone are 6th in all of MLB. For some reason Aaron Hill is 5th?
Edit: Noticed another Mookie stat - he makes contact on 95.7% of the pitches in the zone which is 4th in MLB. Since 2002, the highest % is 96.6 shared by Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre. Mookie is 9th. The highest slugging percentage of that group is .421 by Michael Brantley.
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He is definitely not hitting as well as earlier in the season and it looks even worse because Mookie is on fire.
I would still rather watch X hit his way out of his slump than watch Holt take his place more than once a week.
I would still rather watch X hit his way out of his slump than watch Holt take his place more than once a week.
Dave Cameron has written a couple of times about Mookie's high contact rate, and how it's rare for someone who swings and misses as little as he does to generate so much power.
I think you're right that his low walk rate may also be a function of pitchers not yet recognizing that he's a legit power threat. He's second on the team in Zone%, so pitchers throw him a bunch of strikes, and when Mookie swings at strikes he doesn't miss them so he doesn't get the chance to walk. I don't know how many more 3 HR games it will take, but at some point opposing pitchers will get it through their heads that Mookie is a power hitter and stop challenging him with so many strikes.
Actually, what I think we're seeing vis-a-vis Mookie's low walk rate and high number of strikes seen, is that ever ephemeral "lineup protection" in action.
A lot of words have been written on whether lineup protection really exists or not, and I don't think it's as simple as a next-bat-after phenomenon. However, by having Mookie followed by three straight guys hitting over .300, it certainly appears opposing pitchers are willing take their chances with him swinging away rather than allowing him to work the walk.
By filtering at 250 PA, you get the 7 "lineup regulars" for the year.
Pedroia is second in Zone% (49.8), and he's generally been followed by Bogaerts and Papi. And while that number is right about at his career average, he's also been directly followed by Papi for most of those years. Pedroia might actually become quite a good study for looking at "lineup protection" as a phenomenon, once some post-Ortiz data is collected.
Bradley at third seems surprisingly high (48.5) given his relatively high O-swing rate, but in the first two months he almost exclusively batted ninth with 4 good hitters following him at the top of the order.
A lot of words have been written on whether lineup protection really exists or not, and I don't think it's as simple as a next-bat-after phenomenon. However, by having Mookie followed by three straight guys hitting over .300, it certainly appears opposing pitchers are willing take their chances with him swinging away rather than allowing him to work the walk.
By filtering at 250 PA, you get the 7 "lineup regulars" for the year.
Pedroia is second in Zone% (49.8), and he's generally been followed by Bogaerts and Papi. And while that number is right about at his career average, he's also been directly followed by Papi for most of those years. Pedroia might actually become quite a good study for looking at "lineup protection" as a phenomenon, once some post-Ortiz data is collected.
Bradley at third seems surprisingly high (48.5) given his relatively high O-swing rate, but in the first two months he almost exclusively batted ninth with 4 good hitters following him at the top of the order.
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I'll go further than that, as Mr. Potter would say. Mookie is 9th out of 77 qualifying AL hitters in O-Swing% (9th lowest, that is). And it doesn't look like he's taking pitches early but then getting overly aggressive in hitter's counts; his walk rate in 3-ball counts is only trivially behind the AL rate (38.5% to 40.5%), and that difference could easily be due to the "protection" factor BP mentions, i.e., that pitchers are more likely to throw strikes on 3-ball counts to leadoff hitters in a good lineup.
So he's showing very good discipline overall, the walk rate notwithstanding. I think pitchers are actually pitching him intelligently, realizing that he isn't likely to chase and (as you point out) isn't going to miss strikes either--so your best bet for getting him out is to pitch to contact and try to keep it out of his fairly large wheelhouse, especially when there's no one on base (which is true more often for him than for other Sox hitters).
He was also noted by scouts as having freakishly good pitch recognition, because of how quickly he could pick up the spin on the ball. You so rarely see his knees buckle on curveballs but that's obviously hard to quantify. Can't find swinging vs looking k's and if it's significantly better than league average or not.
I wonder if he saw more strikes earlier in the season to keep him off the bases because of his speed. I don't think anyone in the league thought he was capable of 30+ home runs until May or so. I'm curious if that strike percentage goes down, now that he's hitting 3rd.
I wonder if he saw more strikes earlier in the season to keep him off the bases because of his speed. I don't think anyone in the league thought he was capable of 30+ home runs until May or so. I'm curious if that strike percentage goes down, now that he's hitting 3rd.
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I wonder how much that HBP on his forearm/wrist may be altering his swing. He has had some very ugly swings recently, the likes of which we have rarely seen.
The problem is that his %O-Swing is really good (28th in baseball), and his general swing rate is pretty low (18th) - if pitchers try to pitch around him he's going to walk an awful lot.
He's gonna be a scary hitter - there's nothing he doesn't do really well. He doesn't swing at crap, and he hits what he swings at, and usually hard.
About the only thing he's not sitting in the top quarter of the league for is %O-Contact - which in my mind translates into the ability to foul off close pitches/pitches you were fooled by. He's about league average in that, and not otherworldly like Pedroia. That's not a huge issue though, because he doesn't swing at that stuff often.
I'd imagine it would suck trying to formulate a pitching strategy against Betts.
He can't be busted inside because he's such a lethal pull hitter.
He's not a free swinger, so it's unlikely he'll chase anything outside the zone.
He has great plate discipline.
He makes elite contact inside and outside the strike zone.
He doesn't strike out.
You clearly can't walk him, due to his base-running ability and who follows him in the order.
It does seems doubtful that he's a lock to 30+ HR seasons going forward as the league adjusts, but who knows. He's clearly shattered even the most Vanesque of projections.
He can't be busted inside because he's such a lethal pull hitter.
He's not a free swinger, so it's unlikely he'll chase anything outside the zone.
He has great plate discipline.
He makes elite contact inside and outside the strike zone.
He doesn't strike out.
You clearly can't walk him, due to his base-running ability and who follows him in the order.
It does seems doubtful that he's a lock to 30+ HR seasons going forward as the league adjusts, but who knows. He's clearly shattered even the most Vanesque of projections.
Just started wondering if baseball scouts will start spending time looking for athletic bowlers.
It's inverse hitting, no? Getting good wood with the ball rather than vice versa
Just sayin':
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2016, Younger than 23, From 1st season to 3rd season, (requiring WAR_bat>=14), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/17/2016.
Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, From 1901 to 2016, Younger than 23, From 1st season to 3rd season, (requiring WAR_bat>=14), sorted by greatest WAR Position Players
Code:
Rk Player WAR/pos From To Age Tm
1 Ted Williams 23.6 1939 1941 20-22 BOS
2 Mike Trout 20.7 2011 2013 19-21 LAA
3 Albert Pujols 20.7 2001 2003 21-23 STL
4 Eddie Mathews 18.5 1952 1954 20-22 BSN-MLN
5 Joe DiMaggio 18.2 1936 1938 21-23 NYY
6 Frank Robinson 17.7 1956 1958 20-22 CIN
7 Arky Vaughan 17.4 1932 1934 20-22 PIT
8 Willie Mays 15.8 1951 1954 20-23 NYG
9 Ken Griffey 15.5 1989 1991 19-21 SEA
10 Barry Bonds 15.5 1986 1988 21-23 PIT
11 Dick Allen 15.2 1963 1965 21-23 PHI
12 Stan Musial 15.2 1941 1943 20-22 STL
13 Mookie Betts 14.7 2014 2016 21-23 BOS
14 Jason Heyward 14.7 2010 2012 20-22 ATL
15 Hank Aaron 14.6 1954 1956 20-22 MLN
16 Rickey Henderson 14.5 1979 1981 20-22 OAK
17 Rogers Hornsby 14.4 1915 1917 19-21 STL
18 Grady Sizemore 14.3 2004 2006 21-23 CLEGenerated 8/17/2016.
Thrilled beyond all hope, to be honest. The kid is just a spectacular talent. Couldn't be happier that I was off about how much power he brings to the table.
If you were the pessimistic type and wanted to look at that list and find a reason to pause, your eyes would immediately jump to Mr. Washed Up At 26 Former Red Dock Grady Sizemore.
There but the grace of, yadda yadda yadda