Jose Altuve took longer to break out, but he has to be a comparison here, right? Diminutive right handed, high contact hitters with lots of power. Both developed as second basemen. Betts obviously has room to become even better (theoretically) although I don't think anyone would be "disappointed" if this season is his ceiling. Mike Trout's arguably best seasons came at age 21/22, for example.
Xander and Mookie in 2016
- Thread starter The Gray Eagle
- Start date
So a bunch of hall of famers, should be hall of famers, likely will be hall of famers, Ken Griffey Sr, and Grady Freakin' Sizemore.
I'm okay with that.
I'm guessing you ran that before the site updated Mookie's stats ... he's at 15 WAR now.
I love following Dave Cameron's unabashed Mookie love. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/mookie-betts-needs-some-new-comparisons/
He tries to come up with a new comparison now that he realizes the power is for real and mentions peak Hanley, Nomar, Cano, and Beltre among others as closer to the mark.
None of this factors in defense and speed either. . so really. . . just wow.
He tries to come up with a new comparison now that he realizes the power is for real and mentions peak Hanley, Nomar, Cano, and Beltre among others as closer to the mark.
None of this factors in defense and speed either. . so really. . . just wow.
As Cameron points out, the league will (probably soon) stop throwing Mookie fastballs from the middle in--it seems they just can't help themselves despite the beatings he's delivered lately. The thing is, he's patient enough to lay off the low and outside stuff, so I imagine he'll trade some slugging for OBP--which is more in line with what everyone expected from Mookie in the first place. I hope they win the division, because that probably gets Mookie the MVP provided he plays anything like his season to date through September.
Two thoughts came to mind reading all the statistics this past week on Mookie and I'm not sure if this can be expanded on as frankly I'm a redneck statistician who generally excels at hold my beer and watch this moments.
1) The article above by Cameron references the middle/middle pitches and to my eyes what has made Mookie so deadly this year is he has crushed those pitches and not missed them at all, fouled them off, or not taken full advantage of mistakes. He absolutely destroys mistakes over the fence due to his tremendous hand eye co-ordination, he just takes what he's given and blisters it.
2) He continues to fly up the lists with relatively low BABIP when compared to other historical seasons, often .020 to .040 lower than other players on the same lists in power categories. I attribute this to him consistently making contact and trying to take what the pitchers give him instead of being a pure power hitter like many of the players listed above him. He's an outliner on all these lists, especially at 5'9", the power he provides is amazing, he seems like a better Nomar with strike zone control.
Both of these make him incredibly dangerous, he consistently closes holes in his swing and steps up every year. Who knew when the Trout trades a year or so ago were floated in trade speculation threads and Mookies name was almost always associated as going in exchange that we had our own Trout in the weeds... Incredibly fun to watch, this offseason will be interesting in terms of extension...
1) The article above by Cameron references the middle/middle pitches and to my eyes what has made Mookie so deadly this year is he has crushed those pitches and not missed them at all, fouled them off, or not taken full advantage of mistakes. He absolutely destroys mistakes over the fence due to his tremendous hand eye co-ordination, he just takes what he's given and blisters it.
2) He continues to fly up the lists with relatively low BABIP when compared to other historical seasons, often .020 to .040 lower than other players on the same lists in power categories. I attribute this to him consistently making contact and trying to take what the pitchers give him instead of being a pure power hitter like many of the players listed above him. He's an outliner on all these lists, especially at 5'9", the power he provides is amazing, he seems like a better Nomar with strike zone control.
Both of these make him incredibly dangerous, he consistently closes holes in his swing and steps up every year. Who knew when the Trout trades a year or so ago were floated in trade speculation threads and Mookies name was almost always associated as going in exchange that we had our own Trout in the weeds... Incredibly fun to watch, this offseason will be interesting in terms of extension...
You can't just roll out of bed and say "I'm just not going to throw a fastball inner half to this guy anymore", and ESPECIALLY not when the guy is hitting in front of Pedroia and Boegarts, or (holy hell) Ortiz. You need to throw fastballs because you need strikes, and you need to work both sides of the plate against good hitters. I'd be very interested to peek at how much of the inside fastball damage is coming on the first 2-3 pitches of the PA. If it's a lot, and I suspect it is, it might not be as easy for pitchers to change habits as Cameron thinks.
And of course still has six weeks to add to that. At the rate he's going, it looks like he'll wind up between Arky Vaughan and Mays on that list, at #8.
Additionally, that search just looks at "first three seasons" regardless of playing time, while in real life some players (like Mookie) played partial seasons in their first year or two. If you look at WAR per 600 PA, Mookie rises to #6 on the list, behind only Trout, Williams, Mays, Hornsby and Musial.
It's going to be a really interesting MVP race in the AL this year. You've got Trout, who remains simply the best player in baseball, and would be the odds-on favorite if his team weren't in the dumpster. And you've got Altuve, who would also probably lead the pack if his team were to go anywhere (and it's not quite too late for them to catch fire and sneak into a wild card). Lindor for the Indians deserves a look. But it seems likely that the award will go to the best player on the AL East winner--Donaldson, Betts or Machado--simply because we have a dramatic pennant race shaping up and one of those three guys is highly likely to be instrumental in shaping the outcome.
It's going to be fun.
Of course, last night he hit behind those guys. It will be interesting to see if JF keeps him there for the time being. Also interesting to see how quickly JF moves him away from there after pitchers inevitably stop throwing Mookie fastballs middle in. I still believe he will end up being a leadoff hitter. An awesome leadoff hitter.
It's a little off topic, but the more I watch Mookie hit, the more I want the Red Sox to sign EE and plug him into the 4 hole and keep this train moving. People are going to need a reason to pitch to Mookie Betts, and I don't trust Hanley to be that guy do to injuries.
Not taking a for/against stance on EE specifically, but just want to note that the Sox had a guy with a .500+ SLG hitting after Mookie the last few days who is pretty good in his own right.
With Hanley back, my guess is we see a lineup of Pedey, X, Papi, Mookie, JBJ, Hanley, Shaw, Leon, 10D. That's nasty. You could argue for moving X down, but I think Farrell will want to leave him in front of Papi for a while to give him a chance to sort it out.
Just wanted to really bold this, as that is pretty elite company. Mookie is well on his way to being one of those players who accumulates a decent career's worth of WAR in his first few seasons, and if he can stay healthy, look out. For comparison, he is already half way to the career fWAR of Ellsbury, the last great homegrown Sox outfielder.
He would do damage obviously, but he's already 34 and will probably shoot for the moon. Plus they are going to be super RHH heavy if you assume Moncada joins the lineup and Shaw loses his every day job. And not that you keep 1B open for Sam Travis, but he's also right-handed.
Maybe JBJ in the two hole or clean up spot around Betts next year. Honestly - this will be a lineup where it barely matters who hits where anyhow. Add Swihart as Leon's battery mate, and there are no breaks at all.
Votto would be perfect if they really wanted to splurge on someone other than EE- but that's an entirely different thread.
And I just want to say that calling that list "pretty elite company" is an understatement. That's about as elite as it gets!
He really was. That one injury probably changed the entire history of the AL Central for years.
I'm not sure we know this yet.
2016 as LHB: 335 PA, .314/.413/.568
2016 as RHB: 110 PA, .253/.382/.374
2015 as LHB: 249 PA, .262/.379/.374
2015 as RHB: 114 PA, .310/.381/.570
I just set up a little spreadsheet. My rough version of his career splits across all levels in the minors is:
Career as LHB: .298/.396/.486/.881
Career as RHB: .283/.379/.476/.856
Yep -I'm a moron. I actually saw him a few weeks ago in Portland and should have remembered that.
This is a fabulous article about Betts and how pitchers are starting to change how they approach him.
Check out the fastball pct% graph, and you'll see that pitchers are just now getting tired of the little guy destroying all their best cheese.
Check out the fastball pct% graph, and you'll see that pitchers are just now getting tired of the little guy destroying all their best cheese.
Really good piece.
Continues to suggest if Mookie can retain his eye he'll start walking more and the line will shift to a more OBP heavy less power version, of course with his speed, if he shows he will take a walk if they are conservative and then can steal a lot it really gets to pick your poison. He's too good a baserunner to just give him bases. I don't know what they will do then, try to figure out a hole I guess.
Since this post, .346/.404/.484 in 171 PA. 16bb/13k. 9.4% bb rate and 7.6% k rate. It's already happening. In the prior 530 PA, he was at 5.8% and 12.6%, respectively.
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Update: Mookie's career bWAR is now up to 17.6, #7 all-time among third-year players age 23 or younger. He'll probably pass Frank Robinson (17.7) for the #6 spot, but won't catch Joe Dimaggio at 18.2 unless there are some serious final-week fireworks in store.
1. Ted Williams 23.6 (1942 PA, 7.3 per 600)
2. Mike Trout 20.7 (1490 PA, 8.3 per 600)
3. Albert Pujols 20.7 (2036 PA, 6.1 per 600)
4. Eddie Mathews 18.5 (1874 PA, 5.9 per 600)
5. Joe DiMaggio 18.2 (2020 PA, 5.4 per 600)
If you just look for guys with at least 1000 PA through three years up to age 23, and rank them by bWAR/PA, the top 10 look like this:
Trout 8.3
Williams 7.3
Mays 7.2
Hornsby 7.2
Musial 7.1
Mookie 6.7
Allen 6.3
Pujols 6.1
Longoria 6.0
Mathews 5.9
Of course the grain of salt factor here is that a fair chunk of Mookie's bWAR is defensive. If you regressed Mookie's DRS appropriately, he'd presumably fall a ways down the list. If you look at fWAR, which likes Mookie's defense but doesn't love it the way DRS does, his 5.5 fWAR/600 PA ranks 24th out of 458 players with at least 1000 PA through age 23 since 1901. Even here you can see how much his value is tied in with being an all-around player -- he's only tied for 57th in wRC+ out of those 458 players, not even quite top decile. But he's #8 in baserunning runs.
The FG rankings may be a more realistic take on where he stands--still elite through this point in his career, but not inner-circle-gods-of-the-game kind of elite, more like perennial-All-Star-could-make-the-Hall-if-all-goes-well kind of elite.
This combo, -- 3 seasons and under 23 -- seems moderately arbitrary. It seems more useful to say either who had the most WAR before 23, IOW who was the best young star, or who had the most WAR in his first 3 years, IOW, who had the best early career
The FG numbers are; the BBref numbers are specifically guys in their third year, age 23 or younger. A bit of an apples/oranges issue there, which I maybe should have called out a little more clearly. I don't know how to get a year-of-career split out of FG.
I don't agree--I think it's meaningful to filter for both, because age matters and experience matters. A given level of production at age 23 is more impressive from a guy who's only in his third year than if he's in his fifth year. And a given level of three-year production is more impressive when that third year comes at 23 than when it comes at 26.
Maybe, but how many players make the big leagues at age 18? Age 19? The ones that do go on to be HOFs or Edgar Renteria and uhh... Luis Castillo. It's pretty elite company. Other than that, I agree that age plays a huge part. Adrian Beltre and Andruw Jones "struggled" for awhile too, so even with their 4-5 seasons before age 24, they probably wouldn't appear ahead of Betts and the like.
The apples to oranges issue is actually in comparing modern day WAR with historical WAR. They are calculated very differently.
Not to be a splash of cold water, but Betts has a long road ahead of him still. To begin with, he'd have to stay here the majority of an uninjured career if you're talking about total franchise value. If we're talking about value per-tenure as a Sox, it gets dicer.
Hey, I didn't say it was the only apples and oranges issue.
Of course you're right. It's easy to get carried away with this stuff and forget that when you use WAR to compare players from different eras, you're at most getting a rough idea of who might belong in the same conversation as who. Talking about Betts "passing" Robinson or DiMaggio in this context is just having fanboy fun with numbers, and shouldn't be mistaken for a serious statement about the relative value of the players' three-year production.
This has been a message from the Department of Responsible WAR Usage, Retroactive Disclaimer Division.
Well no kidding, that's where the "potentially" comes in.
But guys like Betts don't come around that often. The closest we have in recent history is Nomar but Betts has an extra season and a whole lot of added defensive value on him.
Betts has a chance at a 10 WAR season (9.5 before today's game). If he does, it will be the first time since 2001 that 2 position players had 10+ WAR, those players being Bonds and Sosa. Before that, it last happened in 1948 (Musial, Boudreau). The other player obviously being Trout.
Other times: 1927 (Ruth, Gehrig, Hornsby), 1924 (Hornsby, Ruth), 1921 (Ruth, Hornsby) 1910 (Cobbs, Collins).
Other times: 1927 (Ruth, Gehrig, Hornsby), 1924 (Hornsby, Ruth), 1921 (Ruth, Hornsby) 1910 (Cobbs, Collins).
Grady Sizemore is actually a fantastic comp for Betts. L/L instead of R/R, but look at their age 22-23 seasons:
22
Sizemore: 706 PA. .289/.348/.484, 37 2B, 11 3B, 22 HR, 22 SB. 52 BB to 132 K. OPS+ 123.
Betts: 654 PA. .291/.341/.479, 42 2B, 8 3B, 18 HR, 21 SB. 46 BB to 82 K. OPS+ 117.
23
Sizemore: 751 PA. .290/.375/.533, 53 2B, 11 3B, 28 HR, 22 SB. 78 BB to 153 K. OPS+ 133.
Betts: 710 PA. .321/.366/.540, 40 2B, 5 3B, 31 HR, 26 SB. 49 BB to 80 K. OPS+ 133.
Sizemore walked and struck out more, while Betts has hit for a higher average despite lower BABIPs.
22
Sizemore: 706 PA. .289/.348/.484, 37 2B, 11 3B, 22 HR, 22 SB. 52 BB to 132 K. OPS+ 123.
Betts: 654 PA. .291/.341/.479, 42 2B, 8 3B, 18 HR, 21 SB. 46 BB to 82 K. OPS+ 117.
23
Sizemore: 751 PA. .290/.375/.533, 53 2B, 11 3B, 28 HR, 22 SB. 78 BB to 153 K. OPS+ 133.
Betts: 710 PA. .321/.366/.540, 40 2B, 5 3B, 31 HR, 26 SB. 49 BB to 80 K. OPS+ 133.
Sizemore walked and struck out more, while Betts has hit for a higher average despite lower BABIPs.