Winter Meetings (Sox-specific)
- Thread starter jon abbey
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I don't know if it was quite phrased as the Sox being "in on". If I got it right they were discussing the lack of action so far during the winter meetings. The response was something like teams are waiting for the Ohtani "domino" to fall to better understand the market on players and then perhaps the Yamamoto "domino" so that teams like Toronto, the Yankees and Red Sox can see where Soto fits in.
I'm not sure if it was this thread or another, but I mentioned that I expect to hear that the Sox are "in on" or at the very least hear them mentioned in the same breath as a fair amount of the big FA or trade targets simply because they are a big market team with recent struggles, clear needs and $$$ to spend. And in some cases the Sox actual needs aren't even a consideration in some of these mentions.
There’s unlikely any possible way to extend Soto and the Yankees are going to target him in ‘25…..and will get him. I can’t shake that feeling that the Sox may blow their future on one year with Soto and have him end up in pinstripes after the season at no loss of prospects.
It's in a lot of threads because it's true. Agents for every single free agent wouldn't be doing their jobs if they weren't "leaking" things tying their clients to every single team with money to spend and a perceived need to spend it. And reporters desperate for anything to tweet or talk about on TV are going to pass along those "leaks" as real news. And most of us are anxious for any appearance of any action so we latch on and get excited. It's a vicious cycle.
I have no doubts that Sox brass are leaving no stone unturned this winter. They're looking at and talking to every free agent and exploring all sorts of trade possibilities. That doesn't mean anything will necessarily come out of every conversation. It's simple due diligence. What we need to be careful of is taking reporters (and pseudo reporters on Twitter) too seriously when they throw out qualifying language like "front runners" and "favorites". That's almost always a sure sign it's coming from agents.
The cost for a one year rental of Soto isn’t going to empty the farm system. Mayer, Teel, Anthony would all be off limits. How would losing some of the other guys blow the future? It might sting a little bit if that scenario materialized, sure, but I don’t think it would catastrophic. Also, wouldn’t the Sox be entitled to draft compensation if he left as a FA?
I don’t think the Sox are interested in any major rentals so it’s all probably a moot point but I tend to be aggressive when it comes to landing stars. At some point this offseason, the Sox need to flex their financial muscles.
I agree that the price for Soto won't be any real blue chippers, no matter who acquires him. I'd love to have him, but his apparent unwillingness to sign an extension does give me pause on giving up even tier 2 prospect capital for one year of a guy when the team is likely more "could make postseason if enough things go right" than "stacked team that needs a final piece to put them over the top".
Yeah, I think it all depends on how the offseason goes. If the Sox somehow land Yamamoto, I’d be aggressive with Soto because you would have changed your team’s trajectory and checked off a huge need without giving up any prospects. That would make a Soto deal easier to swallow.
You strike out on Yamamoto, then you probably need to retain prospect capital for a trade since the cost of a good starter with control is going to be very high.
But my overarching fear with this offseason is that Ohtani, Yamamoto, Soto all go elsewhere and Breslow is forced to decide between getting fleeced in a trade or signing a guy like Montgomery for a contract that would make me uncomfortable.
Plenty of good players in FA but not a whole lot of high end talent. So, if Breslow wants to lock one in, even for just a year, I wouldn’t be against it. At some point, he may need to pivot to rentals. I’d rather do that than give up payroll flexibility for non-elite talent.
If they do get Yamamoto then figuring out a way to get Soto makes sense but I still think there’s teams in a one year window with deeper farm depth that could part with a few lower top prospects on the same level as Mayer, Anthony and the Sox kinda need to hold onto their top pitchers now since they’re incredibly thin there.
I don’t see a Yorke and Bleis package getting it done…. And if they need to add to that it’d likely be pitching.
Serious question concerning Soto... As currently constructed does anyone here see the Sox as being in a position to GFIN? The biggest needs for this team is two top of the rotation starters. The general consensus has been that it will be extremely difficult to achieve this via free agency and the Sox will likely need to acquire arm in a trade. If at this point Soto is not the player the puts you over the top In a GFIN situation, why should Breslow waste prospects on a rental the caliber of Soto. And FWIW, I don't think he's coming cheap.
Yeah, even though I want Soto, I don’t think the two teams line up very well in trade. Bleis’ injury year kind of hurts in that regard. But, end of the day, we don’t have the young pitching they reportedly want.
I wonder how San Diego considers any proposals for Soto that would unload Darvish on his 5/$83 deal, or Cronenworth and his 7/$80?
Which deal is better from Preller's perspective?
SD gets: King or Schmidt, Thorpe or Hampton, Vazquez or Brito
NYY gets: Soto, Grisham (arb2, arb3)
or
SD gets: Houck or Crawford, Verdugo, Walter, Blaze Jordan, Hunter Dobbins or Yordanny Monegro
BOS gets: Soto, Cronenworth (7/$80)
Maybe Pivetta is part of that package too somewhere? Or maybe trading Houck or Crawford opens up a rotation spot for Pivetta, and we try to extend him a few years.
It seems clear that Cashman leaked the negotiations to pressure Preller. Even the once-reputable newsroom at Sports Illustrated described the rumored proposal "ridiculous" in a headline. Odd! In all those reports, Grisham is talked about as a kind of deadweight contract to help ballast the deal — but Grisham is good! And the Padres don't have a ready replacement for him. Attaching Cronenworth, a guy with an underwater contract playing out of position, seems like it would actually help the Padres.
If we get Yamamoto that makes me more excited about a sustainable run of excellence & even less excited to trade the big 3 prospects.
Bottom line is we're really not a fit for Soto, though, either in terms of what our primary needs are or in terms of what the Padres are looking for in return - a raft of cost controlled pitching.
Bottom line is we're really not a fit for Soto, though, either in terms of what our primary needs are or in terms of what the Padres are looking for in return - a raft of cost controlled pitching.
Not disagreeing, but I'd be interested to see who you think that is.
There aren't a lot of teams with more top-50 (league-wide) prospects than the Sox, and two of them are San Diego and Washington.
We also need cost controlled pitching, & unlike for the Yankees, it's not an area of surplus.
I’d say the same for Ohtani. If they commit big for either of them without first solving pitching I’ll unfortunately assume ownership knee jerked back to “farm-smarm let’s do this thing!” This would be mind numbingly brutal after years of ‘disciplined’ last in AL East.
They made essentially no consequential effort to address high end SP under the last regime and solving that problem may unfortunately take more than one year and committing longterm (I know Soto is 1 year but the point is to keep him I assume) to another DH doesn’t get me where I want.
I would be far less concerned about a FA contract for Ohtani than I would be about trading significant assets for one year of Soto.
Ohtani may not be their exact need this upcoming year, but he will be fun to watch hit immediately & he would be a great way to revitalize excitement about the organization long term & be a big step to show a sustained commitment to winning.
Soto is mortgaging the future for something that isn't a primary need & would be reactionary & foolish, and concern me that the tail is wagging the dog. Different story if we want to be the highest bidder for him next off season.
I would do that in a heartbeat... but that package is probably about 35% as valuable as what they're reportedly asking the Yankees for.
Sure, hard to argue there. A Soto move (especially without resigning) would be tough to swallow as much fun as it might be.
Generally, I believe the Red Sox are likely to add toolsy high ceiling up the middle prospects essentially every year so they should plan to deal from that area. However, until pitching gets sorted that’s where all my prospects and money go…blood and treasure, so to speak.
Sign YY, trade for whoever…then I’ll get super excited about another DH : )
But they're not going to get what they're asking for from the Yankees. I think it would take a bit more than that for Soto, but on the margins. Houck would be the biggest single piece.
My case for Soto lies in the fact that he's less than 15 months older than Triston Casas. If the Sox think they could swallow would it cost to sign him (and it won't be cheap), it's a rare opprotuniy.
Yeah, I'd be a bit surprised if they want to be the highest bidder on Soto next off season regardless, but Ohtani actually does significantly help with the pitching thing, too, just starting in '25 when I still intend on being alive & a Red Sox fan (unless they trade Yordanny in which case the Red Sox can still be one of my 2 favorite teams).
& the Red Sox have invested heavily in pitching already bringing in Breslow, Bailey & Willard. The weird thing is when park adjusting for park & defense, the Red Sox were basically exactly average in both hitting & pitching last season, but because they play in Fenway & because the defense was by far the worst in the league, our pitching is deemed to be a bigger problem than it is & our hitting is deemed to be less of a problem than it is.
They'll get 80% of what they're asking for. They'll get Schmidt who is probably about as valuable as Houck & like Houck is under control until '28 & 4 other guys who will be ready in the next year or so with varied levels of skill.
I wouldn't personally trade Houck for Schmidt, but I'm pretty sure the Padres wouldn't value Houck significantly more.
The Blue Jays also seem like they would do Tiedemann + Manoah + a few other pieces of they don't get Ohtani, which would also significantly beat Houck + subsidized Verdugo.
Sounds like it’s going to be 275 mil-300 mil to land Yam. I just can’t see us getting into that area where you have both NY teams seemingly salivating over him and a Giants team desperate to spend money.
Agree, but I accepted this outcome long ago.
It's why I've so fervently been on the Montgomery train (and Nola before that). Once it became clear the priority he'd take for LAD, NYM and NYY all of which are seen as more serious players in the baseball contention landscape right now than the Red Sox, I felt it was pretty much over.
Only chance the Sox have are that he really is "that" close to Yoshida so that playing with him takes precedence over the absolute highest offer he can get. Mostly because I think there is really no number at which Cohen would stop.
Living in SF, however, would not.
I would be surprised if he would not want a 6 year with a 3 year opt out so he can cash in more than once.
This gets so weird…like I’m ok at 10x27 but not 10x30? I mean, I genuinely get that at some point you walk away but when?
Opt outs on long term means he could have all the security plus all the upside.
Edit – also, I think San Francisco could be a pretty cool place to live if you are mega Uber, Duper rich but maybe anyplace is.
Why would living in a city that (a) is one of the most iconic and beautiful in the entire world, and (b) is dense and walkable in a way that's far more similar to urban environments in Japan than almost every other city in America bar New York, and (c) has one of the biggest Japanese populations in the US not be enticing for him?
IMO, Soto as a one year rental and not a primary need at $33M plus Cronenworth's contract and relinquishing young cost controlled talent that could be moved else where just makes no sense.
This thread is hilarious. Yamamoto is going to make so much money that his version of living in America is wildly different than what you and I would experience.
Edit to remove anything potentially political.
Edit to remove anything potentially political.
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10 years 300 mil with an opt out after 3 or 4 years that would allow for one more windfall to cover his 29-38 year range.
Essentially a 3 year 90 mil deal (or 4/120) assuming he’s really good and opts out. It also covers tge Yoshida years.
And as he’s hitting his age 29 year we make a tough decision on how we believe his remaining years will look based on our first hand experience with him.
Any chance he goes for that? From our side we at least lock down his best 3-4 years.
Essentially a 3 year 90 mil deal (or 4/120) assuming he’s really good and opts out. It also covers tge Yoshida years.
And as he’s hitting his age 29 year we make a tough decision on how we believe his remaining years will look based on our first hand experience with him.
Any chance he goes for that? From our side we at least lock down his best 3-4 years.
I didn't have the poop map being used non-ironically on my bingo card of things I expected to run into on SOSH today.
The pitch for Yamamoto to Boston is probably something like:
1) Come play in a place where we prioritize pitching & giving you all the resources you need to succeed. Our CBO is a pitcher, our pitching coach just left San Francisco to come here & we just hired a new pitching director from another successful organization. Yamamoto has his own analytical coaching team, so we will give them all the resources to work together to maximize Yamamoto's chances of success.
2) Come play with your friend Masataka Yoshida who will tell you how much he enjoyed playing in Boston (hopefully).
3) We know you are a competitive person & will thrive & be a superstar. No team has more love for & supports their stars more than the Red Sox. Talk to Pedro, Papi, Koji, etc.
4) Here is a humongous pile of money (12/$312m [$26m AAV] seems fine), & we'll give you a NTC if you want it to show our commitment to you.
The pitch for Yamamoto to Boston is probably something like:
1) Come play in a place where we prioritize pitching & giving you all the resources you need to succeed. Our CBO is a pitcher, our pitching coach just left San Francisco to come here & we just hired a new pitching director from another successful organization. Yamamoto has his own analytical coaching team, so we will give them all the resources to work together to maximize Yamamoto's chances of success.
2) Come play with your friend Masataka Yoshida who will tell you how much he enjoyed playing in Boston (hopefully).
3) We know you are a competitive person & will thrive & be a superstar. No team has more love for & supports their stars more than the Red Sox. Talk to Pedro, Papi, Koji, etc.
4) Here is a humongous pile of money (12/$312m [$26m AAV] seems fine), & we'll give you a NTC if you want it to show our commitment to you.
As for SF as a FA destination, I agree that its not top of the list but my sense is that's more a function of the Giants not spending or the ballpark dimensions versus other quality of life aspects. I feel like the Bay Area offers professional athletes a pretty wide range of lifestyle options versus many other places but maybe its wrong. I don't think anyone is deterred by poop - if that were the case how does any NY team get someone to sign?
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Yankees trying to scare off other potential suitors?
View: https://twitter.com/FiresideYankees/status/1732044713895870674?t=PalEjTRRD6o5BD3oNgwjiw&s=19
View: https://twitter.com/FiresideYankees/status/1732044713895870674?t=PalEjTRRD6o5BD3oNgwjiw&s=19
That's a weird report. I can't think of a good reason for the Yankees to tell anyone anything. Especially if they actually have made good progress with negotiations. Makes me wonder if that AL Executive is just stirring the pot for some reason. Or an agent is spreading rumors to juice things up and that got picked up by some executive.
View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1732098872296563176?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Heyman: Sox stepping up interest in Lugo.
Heyman: Sox stepping up interest in Lugo.
Didn't Yamamoto's people put out there that all negotiations and discussions would be kept under wraps? That tweet reads like a hot take from a blogger hanging out at the hotel bar of the meetings.