It's not truly December until someone comes up with the suggestion that the Red Sox trade for Matt Kemp.
I don't think the Red Sox care about the actual payroll nearly as much as they care about where they are in relation to the competitive balance tax threshold. And since they use the average annual value of a contract for competitive balance tax purposes, back loading contracts doesn't help.With the Sox at $200 million already adding huge ticketed FAs without heavily back loading the contracts is going to kill the Sox. Heavily back loading contracts will kill their ability to sign current players to extensions. I would recommend adding Santana for 3/$45-48, resigning Nunez and adding an arm to the pen. That should keep them safely under the $237 threshold with a few bucks for a late season pick up.
Did not know that for a fact ... thanks for the infoI don't think the Red Sox care about the actual payroll nearly as much as they care about where they are in relation to the competitive balance tax threshold. And since they use the average annual value of a contract for competitive balance tax purposes, back loading contracts doesn't help.
If they were trying to convince Stanton to be more accepting of trades, why not do this first?Ozuna available: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/6-to-8-teams-interested-in-marcell-ozuna.html
I really don't think the Sox can do any trades with the Marlins that wouldn't involve Benin10D or Devers on this... I'm just hoping that some of the other potential JDM suitors decide that 7/$150M is too much so they turn to Ozuna. I'd love to have Ozuna but I think other teams pair up better
The first bolded statement still isn't true, though you keep saying it. If you're discussing 3 years of WAR, 2017 would look like the outlier, since he posted 2.5 fWAR in less than half a season in 2015. That WAR/PA number you used would be 2015 - .00980, 2016 - .00786, 2017 - .00425. For a guy with less than 2000 career PAs, I think it's pretty hard to call 636 of them an outlier.JD Martinez = 0.00631 per PA
Bradley = 0.00677 per PA
Schwarber = 0.00432 per PA
JBJ's WAR figure is propped up by a 2016 season that looks like an outlier against the rest of his career. And Schwarber's WAR per PA is dragged down by his April-June numbers where he was still getting his footing after missing a year following his knee injury.
That's a long way of saying that head to head WAR comparisons are a terrible way to assess a likelihood to contribute going forward and that's before we look at roster composition.
While true, I'm guessing most people consider the first 530 PA to be an outlier or at least dismiss the stats all together because he was clearly rushed.For a guy with less than 2000 career PAs, I think it's pretty hard to call 636 of them an outlier.
How much of that 2015 WAR value there came outside his insanely hot 3 week period, and which amounted to roughly less then 1/3 of his total PAs?The first bolded statement still isn't true, though you keep saying it. If you're discussing 3 years of WAR, 2017 would look like the outlier, since he posted 2.5 fWAR in less than half a season in 2015. That WAR/PA number you used would be 2015 - .00980, 2016 - .00786, 2017 - .00425. For a guy with less than 2000 career PAs, I think it's pretty hard to call 636 of them an outlier.
The second bolded statement is true. Especially in the case of Bradley, who has been all over the map in his MLB performance since 2013.
First 71 PA: .121/.254/.172. Next 90 PA: .446/.489/.952. Last 94 PA: .138/.247/.263. That's kinda scary when you factor in his 2013 and 2014 performance.How much of that 2015 WAR value there came outside his insanely hot 3 week period?
What difference does it make whether a player accrues WAR during a hot streak or more evenly across a whole season? A win is a win.How much of that 2015 WAR value there came outside his insanely hot 3 week period, and which amounted to roughly less then 1/3 of his total PAs?
For the reason we seek to know if the performance is SSS or if his predicted future performance better than the average numbers suggest.What difference does it make whether a player accrues WAR during a hot streak or more evenly across a whole season? A win is a win.
Schwarber would never see the field defensively. That knee issue would clear right up as a full time DH.Please no on Schwarber. Have people forgotten that he's missed a ton of time in his career with a knee injury?
I'd prefer the previously derided suggestion of Wil Myers, although if Bradley is the cost, the Sox would need more coming back.
I'm sure they'd try, but there's a fair chance he's no better than Hanley out there. He's got the frame for it, though. I just worry about him having a reverse of the issue Hanley had when he moved to left. Being completely unfamiliar with reacting to the ball coming off the bat from the infield could make him a nightmare there. But we don't know until he's given a shot at it, so maybe he adjusts just fine. He's much younger than Hanley was when he made that move.It's highly likely that Schwarber would be given a first baseman's mitt.
I'm a Schwarber fan, and I don't worry at all about this past season. He's a hitter.
Right, he'll only be 25 this season and I'd guess he has the hands for it from his years catching. I don't expect him to be Moreland out there, but I'm hopeful he'd be passable.I'm sure they'd try, but there's a fair chance he's no better than Hanley out there. He's got the frame for it, though. I just worry about him having a reverse of the issue Hanley had when he moved to left. Being completely unfamiliar with reacting to the ball coming off the bat from the infield could make him a nightmare there. But we don't know until he's given a shot at it, so maybe he adjusts just fine. He's much younger than Hanley was when he made that move.
While this is not a hot streak, per se, the Red Sox won 15 games last season in which they scored 10+ runs. Bradley played in 14 of them and batted .321 (vs. his season's mark of .245) and slugged .453 (vs. his season's mark of .402), and that included three 0-4 games. In those three games the Sox won 12-10 on a walk-off; 11-6; and 10-7. giving up two runs in the top of the 9th. The opponents averaged 4.8 rpg in those games.What difference does it make whether a player accrues WAR during a hot streak or more evenly across a whole season? A win is a win.
Sure, but I think there is some value in contextualizing when runs are scored by streaky hitters too. For the most part, production over the course of the year is production over the course of the year and there are pros and cons to both steady and streaky performers. But in extreme cases, I think streaky hitters could be less valuable than steady ones who put up the same composite value over a season. I'm not sure if JBJ is an example of that or not, but that he could be leaves me a bit wary going into 2018.Aren’t all hitters likely to have better stats in games where the team scores a lot of runs? That’s why the team scored a lot of runs in the first place.
For someone who presumably just witnessed the tail end of of Nunez's season, you strike me as being surprisingly cavalier about knee injuries.Schwarber would never see the field defensively. That knee issue would clear right up as a full time DH.
Nunez played the field. Running and fielding can aggravate knee issues. Schwarber would most likely be a strict DH. His "issues" are tied to being thrown in the outfield when he's not really able to be an outfielder. They stick him out there for his bat. His defense is awful and he can barely get to balls.For someone who presumably just witnessed the tail end of of Nunez's season, you strike me as being surprisingly cavalier about knee injuries.
The outlier comment was referring to the uncharacteristically steady season he had. His trademark streaky hitting wasn't really on display. He only played in 74 games in 2015 because he was so awful at the plate early on they had to demote him (twice). He had a .154 OPS on May 19th, went down and came back up and had a .641 from June 25th through July 2nd before being sent down again. That 119 OPS+ hinges on a 28 game sample of insanely hot hitting.The first bolded statement still isn't true, though you keep saying it. If you're discussing 3 years of WAR, 2017 would look like the outlier, since he posted 2.5 fWAR in less than half a season in 2015. That WAR/PA number you used would be 2015 - .00980, 2016 - .00786, 2017 - .00425. For a guy with less than 2000 career PAs, I think it's pretty hard to call 636 of them an outlier.
The second bolded statement is true. Especially in the case of Bradley, who has been all over the map in his MLB performance since 2013.
That might not actually be true and is mostly an anecdotal argument. The sample is about a third of the size it would need to be to be stable, but UZR doesn't indicate that he's a bad defender out there yet. With 1138.1 innings in the outfield so far in his career, he comes out at 3.2 UZR. And additional 2300 innings might change that number substantially, but aside from the memorable gaffes (like the game three drop) there's not much evidence to suggest he's a bad defender yet.Nunez played the field. Running and fielding can aggravate knee issues. Schwarber would most likely be a strict DH. His "issues" are tied to being thrown in the outfield when he's not really able to be an outfielder. They stick him out there for his bat. His defense is awful and he can barely get to balls.
Because blowing out your knee in a collision is typically not something one is prone to?Why are you talking about this in terms of talent and not injury?
I agree he's an absurdly frustrating player at times.The outlier comment was referring to the uncharacteristically steady season he had. His trademark streaky hitting wasn't really on display. He only played in 74 games in 2015 because he was so awful at the plate early on they had to demote him (twice). He had a .154 OPS on May 19th, went down and came back up and had a .641 from June 25th through July 2nd before being sent down again. That 119 OPS+ hinges on a 28 game sample of insanely hot hitting.
He's Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. And how long he's Hyde each season will determine whether he looks like 2016 or 2017. I'm not willing to bet on the one year where he was consistent when the team is looking at such a specific and short window to win their next title. Get me someone more stable, and yes I think Schwarber will be a much more stable hitter going forward.
Projected payroll of ~ 50 mil next year and no long term commitments other than Myers, so they have the $$ to spend.
Hosmer could be on his way to San Diego.
Moving Myers back to a cavernous outfield seems really terrible.
Hosmer could be on his way to San Diego.
Stop helping the Yankees. Bloody hell. Headley has negative value.
But that was not the point. You can go 0-for in games when your team scores lots of runs and they probably will win anyway.Aren’t all hitters likely to have better stats in games where the team scores a lot of runs? That’s why the team scored a lot of runs in the first place.
Headley's AAV is $13M with one more year to go and no vesting option, he was a league-average hitter in 2017, and he's averaged about 2 WAR over the past three years. All of that compares favorably to Hanley. Headley's not a star anymore (if he ever was), but there's nothing especially toxic about his contract.so Yanks successfully dump Headley entirely while we're stuck with Hanley. trying to be patient...
I'd say it's hugging the line pretty tight, but they definitely did well to find an early taker in full.Headley plays a decent 3B, hit 273/352/406 last year, and is only signed for one year at 13 mil. That's not a ton of value, but it's not negative.
Throwing Mitchell in probably didn't hurt either. He's not an earth-shattering acquisition, but he's a young, cheap pitcher who has value to a team playing its home games in a pitcher's haven like PetCo.I'd say it's hugging the line pretty tight, but they definitely did well to find an early taker in full.
Considering Cain, Hosmer, and Moustakas are free agents and Perez is probably untouchable, I don't see major league talent match with KC unless it's on the pitching side.What would a satisfactory return from the Royals be in exchange for JBJ?
Scanning his market, the teams who could possibly be in the market for a CF include SF, KC, LAD, OAK, CHC, CLE, NYM, TEX, DET, and CWS, and most of those don’t make sense for other reasons. SF, KC, and TEX make the most sense.
Curious what we’d think fair, realistic value would be.
We have nowhere near the chips for that. Your offer is maybe a third of what it would takeMLBTR, citing a Rosenthal report, says that O's have asked for offers on Machado;
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/orioles-trade-rumor-manny-machado.html
Rosenthal says that Angelos has said he will not trade him to NYY, but no mention of the Sox. He also says that the O's are looking for two young, cost-controlled SPs in return.
Machado would obviously fill the need for a big RH bat, albeit only for one year before he hits FA. Should DD be looking into this? Any way we match up? Would Eduardo and Brian Johnson be too much? Not enough? It would also mean that we'd then be trading XB for a young SP to replace ERod, and we might end up ahead on that.
Personally, I "like" X a lot more than Manny, but Machado is a hell of a player, and probably a better SS as well as a better hitter than X. Worth considering?
For one season? Doubtful. He's going to make a lot of money in arbitration too.We have nowhere near the chips for that. Your offer is maybe a third of what it would take