Winter Meetings 2018: Rumors and Speculation

jon abbey

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I mean, you could go back as far as last year and put Frazier on the list, even though Devers was the far superior choice
Frazier was a throw-in by the White Sox, who I think wanted to move him more than Cashman wanted him. The main guy in that deal for Cashman was Kahnle, under control through 2020.
 

bankshot1

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The Sox reportedly wanted Frazier and many thought, including Frazier he was off to Fenway to play 3rd.

To say he was just a throw-in is revisionist spin.

As for future Y moves, it ain't hitting, but as posted several times, its to address the Achilles heel-starting pitching.
 

jon abbey

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It's not "revisionist spin", it's what happened:

"Todd Frazier was the third piece in a three-player package the Yankees received in July, present as much because the White Sox wanted to unload the rest of his salary as the Yankees hungered for his inclusion.

Tommy Kahnle was priority one for the Yankees, David Robertson the second key, both made more attractive because they were controlled through at least next season while Frazier was in his walk year."

https://nypost.com/2017/10/17/todd-frazier-making-case-for-ny-return-but-not-with-yankees/
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Sox reportedly wanted Frazier and many thought, including Frazier he was off to Fenway to play 3rd.

To say he was just a throw-in is revisionist spin.

As for future Y moves, it ain't hitting, but as posted several times, its to address the Achilles heel-starting pitching.
How much of the "Red Sox wanted Frazier" talk was wishful thinking by fans and idle speculation by media, and how much of it was actually significant pursuit by Dombrowski and the front office? I have no doubt Dombrowski inquired on Frazier's availability and cost as he did with a lot of possible solutions for 3B (it would be professional negligence if he didn't). But how far past those inquiries did it go? We may never know, but I'm inclined to think Frazier wasn't much of a priority for the Red Sox since he was clearly available and the White Sox were eager to be rid of his salary if nothing else, yet they didn't pull the trigger.

I can definitely see where he was a throw-in for the Yankees, who did not have a significant need for a corner infielder or a power bat, but could take on the salary as part of the price of acquiring Kahnle and Robertson. With the added bonus that it took a 3B option off the table for their closest AL East competition who appeared to have a hole at the position.
 

jon abbey

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I think that NY in recent years has definitely valued guys who have already proven they can handle the AL East, like Mike Mussina or AJ Burnett (although Burnett didn't work out so well). I think it's a AL East thing more than a Sox thing, but either way, I think that version of the Yankees is history at this point.
 

Sportsbstn

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I think that NY in recent years has definitely valued guys who have already proven they can handle the AL East, like Mike Mussina or AJ Burnett (although Burnett didn't work out so well). I think it's a AL East thing more than a Sox thing, but either way, I think that version of the Yankees is history at this point.
Javier Vasquez didn’t work out either. Burnett was a bust as well. It was more an AL thing or NY market rather than AL East. Neither Burnett or Vasquez had the mental toughness.
 

bankshot1

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It's not "revisionist spin", it's what happened:

"Todd Frazier was the third piece in a three-player package the Yankees received in July, present as much because the White Sox wanted to unload the rest of his salary as the Yankees hungered for his inclusion.

Tommy Kahnle was priority one for the Yankees, David Robertson the second key, both made more attractive because they were controlled through at least next season while Frazier was in his walk year."

https://nypost.com/2017/10/17/todd-frazier-making-case-for-ny-return-but-not-with-yankees/
Except before the trade these were the press reports.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-rumor-buy-or-sell-todd-frazier-to-red-sox-is-almost-inevitable

The Rumor: In Ken Rosenthal's most recent video dispatch on all things trade deadline, he calls a Red Sox deal for White Sox third baseman Todd Frazier "almost inevitable."

Frazier's indeed a reliable source of right-handed power, and the White Sox are certainly in sell mode. Frazier's also due to become a free agent this upcoming winter, and expiring contracts on non-contending rosters are always ripe to be moved
.

http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/35456/rumor-central-todd-frazier-to-red-sox-almost-inevitable

MLB.com's Mike Petriello agrees, calling Frazier and the Red Sox a "perfect pairing." Petriello notes that the path for Frazier to join the Red Sox as a role player has become clearer recently, with Boston cutting ties with two veteran third basemen.


and this was the headline in the NY Times
Yankees Acquire Todd Frazier and David Robertson in Trade With White Sox

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/sports/baseball/todd-frazier-yankees-white-sox-trade.html?mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=F70A435E9FA045053FB6ADC2E68981DC&gwt=pay

To call Frazier a throw-in is pretty much revisionist history, and was not how the trade was presented at the time of the trade before the trade dead-line.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I find it hard to believe - given how narrowly they ended up escaping the luxury tax line - that they would have broken through it for Todd Frazier. I'm not saying I'd label him a throw in, but I also don't think the Sox rumors were anything more than conjecture.
 

jon abbey

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To call Frazier a throw-in is pretty much revisionist history, and was not how the trade was presented at the time of the trade before the trade dead-line.
Well, luckily we have an entire thread where we discussed this now thoroughly uninteresting topic, here's one post I made just after it happened:

Frazier has minimal value, that is as much a favor to let him play a few months near his home in NJ as anything else. Robertson is good and under contract through 2018 but also CWS doesn't want to pay him anymore. Kahnle has the most value, as was said, but even he is 27 and has only broken through for half a season. Admittedly that half season he has a 15 K/9 (!!!) but still just half a season.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/yankees-trade-for-frazier-robertson-and-kahnle.20263/
 

jon abbey

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Actually if anything Frazier proved more valuable and more of an upgrade on Headley than expected, so if anything revisionist history would go in the other direction. At the time of the trade, the White Sox just wanted to move his salary and sending him to the team he rooted for growing up was a very minor bonus.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I am sure that Cashman, as well as DD, both consider it a nice bonus when acquiring a player who their rivalry was after but neither are making decisions based on that. This is a weird argument to be having in a thread filled with anxious JDM posts for the past two weeks.
 

Sampo Gida

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Actually if anything Frazier proved more valuable and more of an upgrade on Headley than expected, so if anything revisionist history would go in the other direction. At the time of the trade, the White Sox just wanted to move his salary and sending him to the team he rooted for growing up was a very minor bonus.
My memory is that Frazier was a priority mainly due to their problems at 1B. Bird was not going to be ready until September, if then , and they had a revolving door of below replacement level 1Bmen. Headley who had been playing well was able to move to 1B. Keeping him from the Red Sox who had issues at 1B and 3B also was a plus
 

Pozo the Clown

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My memory is that Frazier was a priority mainly due to their problems at 1B. Bird was not going to be ready until September, if then , and they had a revolving door of below replacement level 1Bmen. Headley who had been playing well was able to move to 1B. Keeping him from the Red Sox who had issues at 1B and 3B also was a plus
What? No love for Ji-Man Choi and his 1.067 OPS? ;)
 

PapaSox

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We have a few guys in the minors (Marrero, Hernandez & Lin) who can handle 2B in Peddy's absence and fall back into a bench role going forward. I know it may not be the best solution but it frees up dollars to fill other roles. They are not a Nunez but they also do not cost $6-$7 million. Baseball Reference has the projected salaries at $214 while another has us at $200 (Can't find it). There is not a lot of room. Add Bruce as DH/OF (3/$48 - 51) and Tony Watson LH-RP (2/$14) to fill out the needs we have. We may want to look at Holland or Davis (Est 3/$45 - 48) to strengthen the pen and cover the possibility that Kimbrel will leave after next year. We will go over the surcharge limit unless some payroll is cut but it would be for a year as Panda's contract ($18 million) and Allen's last $1 million drops off and if Hanley does not reach his AB his salary ($22 million) will go away. Kimbrel's, Kelly & Pomeranz all hit free agency at the end of the season ($26 million). And, there is always the possibility that Price will opt out ($31 million) to join the Cubs.

Baseball Reference: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/boston-red-sox-salaries-and-contracts.shtml
 

grimshaw

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Add Bruce as DH/OF (3/$48 - 51) and Tony Watson LH-RP (2/$14) to fill out the needs we have. We may want to look at Holland or Davis (Est 3/$45 - 48) to strengthen the pen and cover the possibility that Kimbrel will leave after next year.

Baseball Reference: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/boston-red-sox-salaries-and-contracts.shtml
Since his 2013 season when he provided about 5.5 offensive WAR he has done the following
2014 -1.1
2015 .8
2016 .6
2017 2.9

And Hanley during that span
2014 4.6
2015-1.3
2016 2.8
2017 -.1

Dropping 16 million on him to DH while presumably DFA'ing Hanley and still being on the hook for 22 for a a maybe 1 win difference unless Hanley bounces back to his 2016 level is just a massive waste.

I actually think Bruce will get closer to 3/36 as well because he will likely be in the field where he adds negative value.

Grabbing JD Martinez for an actual huge upgrade just seems wiser.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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I actually think Bruce will get closer to 3/36 as well because he will likely be in the field where he adds negative value.
That seems like overstating the case. According to UZR he's averaged -3.8 runs in the field over the past three years, but DRS has him at essentially zero, +0.1 runs. His defense isn't a plus, but it's not much of a minus either.
 

MikeM

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IDK, I have a hard time pegging Bruce at $12m/per in this market with Santana getting $20m.

At this point I think DD is mostly done anyway though, and a lot of us are just left waiting around for JDM to sign elsewhere before we start jumping on Cameron's "why exactly is he still a good GM fit here now that the payroll flexibility has been spent and our top prospects to trade are already gone? " bandwagon.
 

edoug

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IDK, I have a hard time pegging Bruce at $12m/per in this market with Santana getting $20m.

At this point I think DD is mostly done anyway though, and a lot of us are just left waiting around for JDM to sign elsewhere before we start jumping on Cameron's "why exactly is he still a good GM fit here now that the payroll flexibility has been spent and our top prospects to trade are already gone? " bandwagon.
I guess I'm not one of the most. Obviously Martinez could sign with someone else but him coming to the Sox is still a possibility, I think.
 

grimshaw

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IDK, I have a hard time pegging Bruce at $12m/per in this market with Santana getting $20m.

At this point I think DD is mostly done anyway though, and a lot of us are just left waiting around for JDM to sign elsewhere before we start jumping on Cameron's "why exactly is he still a good GM fit here now that the payroll flexibility has been spent and our top prospects to trade are already gone? " bandwagon.
Come on. They aren't done yet. And if they let JDM sign elsewhere it'll very likely be because Boras' demands were so ridiculous that DD exercised some restraint. And if they don't sign anyone then they will have some payroll flexibility.
 

Buzzkill Pauley

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The MLB GM’s winter meeting is over. can we close this thread up and start anew for offseason speculation? Or maybe just rename this one...
 

MikeM

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Come on. They aren't done yet. And if they let JDM sign elsewhere it'll very likely be because Boras' demands were so ridiculous that DD exercised some restraint. And if they don't sign anyone then they will have some payroll flexibility.
Again IDK, especially given DD's operating tendencies and how adamant he seemed to be from the start about only adding one bat. I mean I guess he could still hit on his previously mentioned platoon type upgrades. A more bankable BU/RHH OF upgrade over Brentz, and/or maybe swing the possible trade for Grandal which I personally find appealing. Beyond that though we're talking about a long game approach that arguably isn't even in DD's toolbox.

Projected payroll is sitting at $213m atm/btw, and that's before we do any around the edges work like signing a LH reliever. Leaving your payroll flexibility projection we would still have at this point lining up with a notion that this ownership is perfectly fine stepping in as the new LA Dodgers of MLB. As I've stated previously here, I just don't think that is an absolute given in itself. Which if true at least somewhat begins to explain to me the how and why a fairly GFIN based GM like DD could possibly end up making that re-signing Moreland call.
 

grimshaw

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Again IDK, especially given DD's operating tendencies and how adamant he seemed to be from the start about only adding one bat. I mean I guess he could still hit on his previously mentioned platoon type upgrades. A more bankable BU/RHH OF upgrade over Brentz, and/or maybe swing the possible trade for Grandal which I personally find appealing. Beyond that though we're talking about a long game approach that arguably isn't even in DD's toolbox.

Projected payroll is sitting at $213m atm/btw, and that's before we do any around the edges work like signing a LH reliever. Leaving your payroll flexibility projection we would still have at this point lining up with a notion that this ownership is perfectly fine stepping in as the new LA Dodgers of MLB. As I've stated previously here, I just don't think that is an absolute given in itself. Which if true at least somewhat begins to explain to me the how and why a fairly GFIN based GM like DD could possibly end up making that re-signing Moreland call.
Sure they can blow past that payroll, but there will be some money off the books after the season with Pomeranz and Kimbrel as well as potentially Price if he opts out and especially if Hanley doesn't get his vesting option. The latter seems like a near given to me. If they don't spend long term money on a bat, then Kimbrel and Pomeranz could be re-signed.

Also -DD contradicts himself from this article after his earlier quotes on not needing to add anyone.
http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2017/12/jd_martinez_next_for_boston_re.html he said this as well.

"We still continue to feel like we have the opportunity to add someone else to our club from an offensive perspective," Dombrowski said. "It won't be a first baseman."

Dombrowski did mention he could add a full-time player. He has enough at-bats for him between DH and outfield, he said.

He said he doesn't need to trade anyone off his current roster to make room for another full-time hitter."

That sounds like a DFA to me of Hanley. And Martinez sure seems like the bolded.
 
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MikeM

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The odds of Price opting out are almost non-existent imo, and Pom/Kimbrel coming off the books will be at the expense of losing two huge pieces of the current core without any internal replacements lined up behind them. Plus even if we do indeed manage to get Hanley off the books, he'll also need to be replaced and we'll still have arby raises nipping away in the backround.

The bolded there could also easily translate out into being Austin Jackson imo.
 

grimshaw

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The odds of Price opting out are almost non-existent imo, and Pom/Kimbrel coming off the books will be at the expense of losing two huge pieces of the current core without any internal replacements lined up behind them. Plus even if we do indeed manage to get Hanley off the books, he'll also need to be replaced and we'll still have arby raises nipping away in the backround.

The bolded there could also easily translate out into being Austin Jackson imo.
Like I said - if they don't sign a bat, they can potentially re-sign those two guys.

They could spend less than half of what they paid to get better production out of DH. Maybe it's Chavis by then for peanuts for all we know.
 

PapaSox

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The odds of Price opting out are almost non-existent imo, and Pom/Kimbrel coming off the books will be at the expense of losing two huge pieces of the current core without any internal replacements lined up behind them. Plus even if we do indeed manage to get Hanley off the books, he'll also need to be replaced and we'll still have arby raises nipping away in the backround.

The bolded there could also easily translate out into being Austin Jackson imo.
I disagree about Price. I think if has a solid year he'll opt out and sign with the Cubs. I even believe he'll take less per year for more years. I think he'd love to be with Maddon on a winning ball club. However, I agree with what your saying in the rest of your statement.
 

chrisfont9

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Javier Vasquez didn’t work out either. Burnett was a bust as well. It was more an AL thing or NY market rather than AL East. Neither Burnett or Vasquez had the mental toughness.
Vazquez' season in NY (age 27) was almost exactly in line with his age 25 season in Montreal. AJ Burnett's first season in NY (age 32) was exactly in line with his two best seasons in Florida, and he came to the Yankees from Toronto. So I'm not sure it's as much mental toughness (implying pressure) as it is that the competition has generally been a bit better in the AL East than most other divisions in most seasons.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Come on. They aren't done yet. And if they let JDM sign elsewhere it'll very likely be because Boras' demands were so ridiculous that DD exercised some restraint. And if they don't sign anyone then they will have some payroll flexibility.
For what? The only assets they have are cash unless you think trading benny or Devers is a wise move
 

Devizier

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Vazquez' season in NY (age 27) was almost exactly in line with his age 25 season in Montreal. AJ Burnett's first season in NY (age 32) was exactly in line with his two best seasons in Florida, and he came to the Yankees from Toronto. So I'm not sure it's as much mental toughness (implying pressure) as it is that the competition has generally been a bit better in the AL East than most other divisions in most seasons.
Burnett was definitely buying high. I thought injuries played a role in Vazquez's performance but it looks like he made it through a full season.