Who's on Third? I don't know
- Thread starter Devizier
- Start date
Gyorko and Rosenthal for Devers?
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2017/7/8/15932556/cardinals-red-sox-trade-analysis-trevor-rosenthal-jedd-gyorko-rafael-devers
https://www.vivaelbirdos.com/2017/7/8/15932556/cardinals-red-sox-trade-analysis-trevor-rosenthal-jedd-gyorko-rafael-devers
No. He's treating the trade scenario like a trade in The Show. Fill up the meter and you get you guy! There is absolutely no way the Red Sox would trade Devers for Rosenthal and Gyorko. None.
There's a pretty good chance Devers would be as good as Gyorko the rest of the way if promoted right now. And there are far less expensive options on the market if the Sox want a bullpen arm and a third baseman.
This article is filled to the brim with wish casting and outdated information.
It would make some sense if you were talking a guy who was blocked, lets say an OF who was tearing up AA.
It makes no sense to trade an up and coming 3B who is so close to being ready for a 3B. As Snod said and the guy that wrote this pretty much stated there is a decent chance Devers would be just about as good as Gyorko is right now.
If the Sox trade for a 3B it will be a rental who will cost them a spare part and a lottery ticket.
It makes no sense to trade an up and coming 3B who is so close to being ready for a 3B. As Snod said and the guy that wrote this pretty much stated there is a decent chance Devers would be just about as good as Gyorko is right now.
If the Sox trade for a 3B it will be a rental who will cost them a spare part and a lottery ticket.
Bob NightengaleVerified account @BNightengale 4m4 minutes ago
The Boston #RedSox,would like a package deal from #Marlins, where they not only acquire 3B Martin Prado, but also reliever David Phelps.
The Boston #RedSox,would like a package deal from #Marlins, where they not only acquire 3B Martin Prado, but also reliever David Phelps.
I just saw Devers at bat in the Futures game. He looked like a very young kid and struck out. I am not claiming this means anything at all. It's just that I'd never seen him before and was surprised he looked so young. Lin looks very mature in comparison.
Michael Chavis we hardly knew ye.
This is stupid. Why are we giving up assets to add to the bullpen - which has been the strongest part of the team. And won't Prado put the team over the LT?
Not to mention Prado sucks. And will continue to suck , blocking Devers next year.
I'm not advocating that Devers be brought up now(though I can see how you would read it that way) I just don't see any reason to trade for someone who may not be better than him right now.
I think Devers will be in AAA in a couple of days and he can show there whether he belongs or not. Until then the Lin/Marerro platoon should be ok.
The bullpen success is mostly a mirage outside of Kimbrel. Barnes is a disaster on the road, Kelly's numbers absolutely SCREAM regression, Abad is no where near as good as his ERA, Thornburg is probably toast this year and Carson Smith getting back on the mound and being effective this year is looking more and more like a pipe dream. They need bullpen help if they want to win in October.
So a couple things. Joe Kelly has 3.01 fip and a 3.93 xfip. If those are the numbers he puts up the rest of the year, then that is fine. Matt Barnes has a 3.25 fip and a 3.35 xfip which are both very close to his ERA. Thornburg is gone this year and possibly forever since he got Thoracic outlet surgery and yeah I agree with your assessment of Smith. At the end of the day though, getting David Phelp or really anybody is not going to help the bullpen if it is really as bad as you seem to think it is. If the bullpen really is that bad then we are talking about having to get a couple bullpen arms in there. That being said, I think the numbers prove the bullpen might be due for some regression, but overall is very solid.
At first base with Travis being the fall back/insurance plan maybe, since I really can't envision a scenario at this point where DD doesn't end up putting the "my guy" tag on Moustakas as a FA. Once Pablo is finally gone and Linsanity has run it's natural course, the potential check marks are going to make a pretty convincing case this winter when we probably won't have much of an outside shopping list otherwise:
Non-conservative type GM who isn't afraid to make a splashy move - check
Probable lack of competing interest coming out of LA or NY - check
Best overall probability chance to immediately fill the most glaring hole and weakness on the team - check
Still relatively young player (this is key btw) - check
Middle of the order bat who can hit homeruns for a team who doesn't hit that many - check
Ideally a LHH - check
Still leaves the door wide open for Devers, who isn't being highly touted for his defense at 3B to begin with - check
Prado is a solid, all around 3 win player. He doesn't suck at all.
He is a bit old though and signed through 2019 which could create a log jam next year.
If they took on his full contract, they probably wouldn't have to give up a ton.
I will be shocked if he ever takes the field for them again. The time to move on is now...
Not this year he isn't. And he's 33 so improvement is unlikely.
I fail to see how he's an upgrade over a Merrero / Lin / Holt job share.
I think Todd Frazier is a much more useful player to acquire.
It's not that he's terrible, but taking on his contract (which still has $28.5m left on it after this year) is probably a deal breaker alone there. Before even getting into what Swihart+ type flyer they'd be willing to take for him.
I don't see the Sox having a big problem with over the cap spending, but it won't be in the name of a somewhat mediocre solution like him imo.
I was arguing that he didn't suck (3.1 and 3.8 WAR the past two years and been on the DL half the year this year) and that it wouldn't take Chavis if they took on his whole contract. It's not a great fit for this team unless they can flip him again when Devers is ready.
But I really can't see Moustakas either as a FA signing. It doesn't make sense to move either him or Devers over to 1b since it weakens one of their values significantly. You mentioned Devers' defense, and the knock has been primarily that he'd eventually need to move off of 1b, not that he couldn't play there now (look at Speier's link upthread ). Why block him with a mid-tier guy before that happens?
Someone like Logan Morrison to play 1B would make more sense if they didn't base his entire salary on this year alone or even Carlos Santana if they think he can bounce back or Frazier at 1b. But it really depends mostly on what Devers can do. They won't be as desperate for a bat if he shows something in his trial here.
Last edited:
AAA stats:
Holt 60 AB: 713 OPS (233/313/400)
Peralta 40 AB: 570 OPS (200/195/375) in Pawtucket [slightly higher if you add the three games with the Cards' affiliate]
Sandoval 77 AB: 558 OPS (221/259/299)
Looks like Sandoval and Peralta are competing for the most suck.
Take a look at the home road splits for Barnes. He's horrendous on the road. And a 3.93 xFIP is not good for a reliever by any stretch of the imagination. They have exactly one pitcher I'd be comfortable with late in a playoff game with a lead. That's it.
It's not always about min/maxing paper value. You are factoring in Devers' on-field value at the MLB level before he even essentially has any. The bat potential is the real sell there imo, and where he ends up playing for us is more the gravy.
Like the surrounding David Price scenario before it I ultimately just see the fit making too much sense at the time. With this being more in our FO's typical spending wheel house to boot (he's getting paid, but he's not getting that monster mega deal), and not even requiring the outside our comfort zone reach Price did.
There is not a logical bone in my body that can explain away a home-road split like that except for (a) remarkable coincidence, or (b) EV.
It's not like his pitching is impacted by the shape of the field or the weather.
It's not like his pitching is impacted by the shape of the field or the weather.
Do you really see the Sox signing Moustakas to a Pablo-level deal? Because that's probably what it takes. Pablo was a year younger than Moustakas will be as a FA, but they are roughly equal over their last 3 years with the bat and Moose is better with the glove. And overall salary inflation. 5 years, $90 million is not out of the realm of possibility for Moose and it could be more. And he's certainly not settling for a shorter duration.
I can't see them making a trade for a 3b this year if they haven't already done so. Just ride out the Lin and Marrero show all year if you have to. At worst, they provide defense and base running. I can't see them signing anyone this offseason to play 3b either, with Devers soon in AAA, Chavis in AA and with Lin continuing to hit line drives and fly balls at the major league level.
There's no real reason to believe his "on the road" numbers are any more real than his home numbers. Most likely, he's somewhere in between. As almost always with relievers, the numbers are small, and small numbers are easily influenced by variance. The 3.467 OPS he gave up in 5 PA in Minnesota drags his full season OPS up 20 points, and I'm sure walking 2 guys, giving up 2HR, and getting one out makes a tangible difference in FIP/xFIP when the denominator is 20 innings. The point isn't that these shitshows don't count, or didn't happen, it's that reading too much into when and where they happened isn't wise.
Maybe he doesn't sleep well other than at home. Actually, career, his home/away numbers are very close. This year his home/away numbers could still be called small sample size. That's what Farrell and Willis will conclude. Or, might they move Hembree ahead of him in the depth chart? I think they go status quo for a while. They just swapped Kelly and Barnes. Have to let that sit for a while.
Oops, thread going off the rails (supposed to be about 3B).
Considering a probable LT reset on the horizon, and where they are plus will be in relationship to the current window? Absolutely. Given the market lately and depending on where Moustakas' OBP for the year ends up it could also play out to be less too btw.
Bottomline the ideal fit to have somebody better then Mitch Moreland helping to anchor the middle of our lineup didn't just disappear because he started the year hot. Or because the only real/better alternative readily available this past winter (EE) was limited defensively, a RHH, and ultimately just too old already to gamble a big contract on (although I'm sure we'll start hearing that aspect get revisited again in the second half now that Moreland is coming back to reality and EE is long past his slow start).
Not quite sure how you are measuring up that Pablo comparison either btw, but I'm not seeing it. Pablo's signing basically just amounted to covering the hole with a body while using WAR value at it's worst imo, where as Moustakas is more of a tailored to the current roster solution that buys out a bunch of questionable variables that could/would otherwise be going into next year's overall build equation. Again, one that is going to take place in an off-season where not much else will be going on other then what is sure to be a huge debate, that probably extends into the season, on whether Kimbrel is worth a big money extension
Mike Moustakas will go into the offseason with a career wRC+ of right around 100, with his most recent three years at about 120. On November 1, 2014, Pablo Sandoval's career wRC+ was 122, with his most recent three years at 114. Obviously, the trend direction in Moustakas' case is better, but I think it's a stretch to suggest that there's a clear difference in value between Sandoval then and Moustakas now. It's hard to remember, but when we signed him Pablo was an above-average player according to basically everybody. Not as good a player as the World Series hype made some think, but a good player.
As opposed to what, watching a team that obviously could use more power in the middle of the lineup fall short and do nothing of note in response other then hand off both corner IF jobs to 2 unproven rookies? Or do we just take another flyer on MM and see DD parade that around as his centerpiece fix all winter. Because there is probably no David Price signing or Chris Sale trade happening otherwise, and I'm also left guessing that for better or for worse we'll be spending a lot of time talking about a full health return of both Thornburg/Smith.
Nobody is going to put any real value in Moustakas' career average line there. The last 3 heading into FA as a 29 yo (with the strongest emphasize being placed on the season he just ended up having) is going to be much, much, more relevant. But I'm honestly guessing you already knew that.
See above for my thoughts on trying to penalize Moustakas for his early career struggles.
It wasn't everybody either, although the argument for me here isn't really revolving around who had the better open market value anyway. It's a matter of those more then afterthought trends being better, the current roster fit/need being better, and what I think DD is going to do at 3B after we pass on making any deadline deals.
Personally, I'll probably be pretty neutral on it overall. My giddiness for free agents now and in the near future pretty much died off after Jansen resigned in LA.
I'm so confused. Why are we talking about Moustakas again? Even the ridiculous scenario where the Red Sox waste the rest of Devers' 2017 in AA despite having no acceptable major league third baseman, he's gotta be first pick for the job in 2018 and certainly you wouldn't sign a guy who would block him for years in 2018. You don't sign a third baseman FA when your top prospect is a 3B.
And, the Royals have been the best team in the AL over the past month, they are 1.5 games back in the wildcard and still competitive for the division. They look like buyers, not sellers at the deadlne.
As for Prado, I think the basic attitude should be, sure we will take him. What will the Marlins give us in return?
And, the Royals have been the best team in the AL over the past month, they are 1.5 games back in the wildcard and still competitive for the division. They look like buyers, not sellers at the deadlne.
As for Prado, I think the basic attitude should be, sure we will take him. What will the Marlins give us in return?
Yup. He's had four appearances on the road where he gave up multiple runs, a total of nine runs in those four games. Of the 16 he's allowed all year. He's had 23 appearances on the road and didn't allow a run in 16 of them. So I don't think he's allergic to pitching in road games.
I agree completely. Let's not waste any more capital on the suck that is 3B.
Have a bet both ways on Lin; Marrero can capably provide good defence and a very occasional good day at the plate, and get Devers a cup of coffee a six weeks from now, and aim for him to start at 3B in 2018. Tired of wasting good prospects on bad acquisitions.
edited for clarity
After DD's complete screw up with Travis Shaw... Would you trade Devers for Shaw straight up right now?
You've posted the same thing on 3 or 4 different threads now. Travis Shaw is having a very good season. He is not a MVP candidate. Arenado, Bellinger, Blackmon, Bryant, Cozart, Goldschmidt, Greinke, Harper, Jansen, Kershaw, McCutchen, Murphy, Posey, Rizzo, Scherzer, Seager, Stanton, Thames, Votto and Zimmerman are all likely to get more votes than he will to name 20 NLers off the top of my head.
It was not obvious that Shaw would have a wonderful season after the 2nd half (3/4 really) he showed in Boston last year.It was not obvious that Thornburg would hurt himself and be unable to pitch and that the top 4 3b-men in the depth chart would be injured. Yes, hoping that the Panda would rebound was never going to be without substantial risk, but he did seemingly work himself back into shape and showed an impressive attitude about trying to make up for the past 2 seasons. It was a logical choice to see if that would work - it clearly didn't.
But this doesn't mean that trading Shaw
edit: Having looked a bit more deliberately I could add 8 more to the list:
Barnes, Conforto, Freeman, Gennett, Ozuna, Rendon, Sogard and Turner. So I'd put Travis Shaw at about the 30th most likely person to win the NL MVP this year.
It was not obvious that Shaw would have a wonderful season after the 2nd half (3/4 really) he showed in Boston last year.It was not obvious that Thornburg would hurt himself and be unable to pitch and that the top 4 3b-men in the depth chart would be injured. Yes, hoping that the Panda would rebound was never going to be without substantial risk, but he did seemingly work himself back into shape and showed an impressive attitude about trying to make up for the past 2 seasons. It was a logical choice to see if that would work - it clearly didn't.
But this doesn't mean that trading Shaw
We did not give
for a
. Thornburg was a very good, young, cost-controlled arm and may still have a future with us. The trade was not
, it was a rational decision. And I certainly wouldn't trade Rafael f-ing Devers now for Travis Shaw straight up. Would you?
edit: Having looked a bit more deliberately I could add 8 more to the list:
Barnes, Conforto, Freeman, Gennett, Ozuna, Rendon, Sogard and Turner. So I'd put Travis Shaw at about the 30th most likely person to win the NL MVP this year.
Last edited:
Oh hell no.
The more I think about it, the more I think this is the best option. We need to do two things. 1) Make the post-season, preferably by winning the division and 2) Have a team that can get hot in October.
We're in first place with drek at third and all the injury issues. It's not unreasonable to think this team can win the division as is. It's also not unreasonable to think that the chances of getting more out of third from internal options are okay. Lin and Marrero have some chance of being okay. There's some chance Holt gets healthy and performs well. There's some chance Devers demonstrates that he's the guy before the playoff roster is set. Heck, there's some chance that Sandoval comes back and doesn't suck and some chance we pick up a minor league vet who can manage to be unterrible.
I don't know that we can put numerical values on any of it, but considering how good the team is even with the drek, how top heavy the system is, how young the core is, and that the team as currently structured is one nobody would want to play in the playoffs, standing pat isn't a terrible idea.
I actually think they can, and should, wait a couple weeks to decide on 3B: between Sandoval, Peralta, Holt, Lin, Marrero, and Devers, you have six possible options. But there are questions about each (doneness, doneness, health, regression, regression, and development, respectively). They have to decide about Sandoval by Monday -- and, in order to learn more about Devers's readiness by 7/31, they should decide about Peralta soon, too (I'm guessing Devers goes to Pawtucket early next week).
If Sandoval and Peralta are done, Holt isn't ready, Lin and Marrero come back to earth, and they continue to not think Devers is ready, then, yeah, they should trade for the best 3B Blake Swihart can buy. But I'm willing to bet at least one of those six options will pan out, in which case you can afford to upgrade the bench with a Plouffe type instead and use the savings to get a reliever.
If Sandoval and Peralta are done, Holt isn't ready, Lin and Marrero come back to earth, and they continue to not think Devers is ready, then, yeah, they should trade for the best 3B Blake Swihart can buy. But I'm willing to bet at least one of those six options will pan out, in which case you can afford to upgrade the bench with a Plouffe type instead and use the savings to get a reliever.
No. Nobody would do that. Nobody would do anything close to that.
I would say it's more like three, since Sandoval, Peralta, and Marrero are obviously terrible.
Peralta's current line in Pawtucket: .200/.195/.375. Tough to have an OBP lower than your BA but that's what you get with a 11/0 K/BB ratio. But at least he makes up for his horrendous bat with defense that is merely very bad.
Last edited:
In the hypothetical not going to happen category, I wonder if DD would consider moving Devers for 1.5 seasons of Donaldson. I wouldn't do it, and in-division trades of any magnitude are very rare.
But it's the type of move DD does, and it maximizes this window we have with Sale, Price and all this cheap young talent.
But it's the type of move DD does, and it maximizes this window we have with Sale, Price and all this cheap young talent.
Stating the obvious, perhaps, but I think Peralta is the first to be shipped off the island. There's no contractual obligation and he's shown next to nothing.
Is there any chance at all that Marrero continues to be not shitty against LHPs, such that he's at least platoon-worthy, in addition to being versatile?
His OPS vs lefties in the minors by season
2012: .749
2013 .793
2014: .803
2015: .582
2016: .522
2017: .558
He used to hit them well when he was a non-zero with the bat, but he hasn't shown anything recently until this major league stint. I tend to think pitchers treat him a bit like the kid who couldn't hit anything without a fat bat this year.
It has worked short term because neither Lin nor Panda (nor Peralta recently) hit lefties well, but when Holt gets back, having no platoon split, I would hope he'd get a shot.
FWIW - upcoming lefties they could potentially face before the deadline are CC, Paxton, Duffy, Vargas, Happ and Liriano.
Here's hoping they have somebody manning 3b on August 1st who doesn't need a platoon guy.
Last edited:
Holt has made 90 starts at third base in season seasons of major league ball and he hasn't fielded especially well at that position. He also has had an average OPS+ of 91 during those years with 98 being his top. He is a utility player you bring off the bench but he does have the advantage over Lin/Marrero of having played the four infield positions as well as both corner outfield ones. Frankly, If I were the Red Sox (based on what I have seen so far) I would try to expand Lin's positioning with the idea of making him the man off the bench.
And all they had to do was keep Adrian Beltre.
Lin had no career L/R split in the minors and this year had identical slash lines vs L and R in the minors. This is only true if you say Lin doesn't hit righties well either.
Lin's positioning doesn't need to be expanded he has played outfield and the middle infield positions in the minors. Third was a position he had hardly played until recently.
The only position Lin hasn't played that Holt has is first and they have two guys on the bench who can already play there.
Assuming Lin is almost as good as he has looked I'd say that is already the plan.
The only position Lin hasn't played that Holt has is first and they have two guys on the bench who can already play there.
Assuming Lin is almost as good as he has looked I'd say that is already the plan.