Nate's strong start to the season had me looking at his fangraphs player page today and it has me wondering what we should be expecting out of this guy going forward? Injury is obviously a major concern but lets assume health for the remainder of his contract (lol i know). I struggle to see him as anything but the mid to back end of the rotation guy with injury concerns but there is some reason to think he's something more than that these days.
Eovaldi went through his second Tommy John surgery in 2016 and most people just assumed he was done, I think. A cautionary tale that talent doesn't always meet performance. When I look at the numbers though, I see a pretty big improvement since he came back from injury. Take a look.
K%
Career best pre 2016 18.5%
2019 - 23.2
2020 - 26.1
2021 - 25.5
BB%
Career best pre 2016 - 5.0% but every other year was over 7.5% before and after 2014
2019 - 4.4%
2020 - 3.5%
2021 - 4.3%
xFIP
Career best - 3.78 (other years 4.80, 4.56, 4.15, 3.81, 4.22)
2019 - 3.67
2020 - 3.32
2021 - 2.64
I'm just not sure WHY he's performing at such a higher level than he was pre-injury. He introduced the cutter in 2016 but only threw it 7.3% of the time. He's throwing that pitch roughly 20% of the time post surgery. He's also ticked up his CB% significantly to 18% from 9% pre surgery. He's also scrapped his change up for a splitter in 2016 which hes throwing about 13% of the time. You would think the change in pitch mix would explain the difference in performance but none of them is really getting him great performance above average (except his curve ball which is a real strength post surgery). It could be a situation where the different pitch mix is creating a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" scenario but it's unclear.
It's a mystery to me. Batters are swinging and missing at his stuff way more, mostly pitches outside the zone which indicates the splitter and curve ball are pretty effective. Most of the rest of his contact numbers seem pretty similar though.
So I guess my question to the board is "who is this guy?" There is obvious evidence as a Red Sox that Nathan Eovaldi's performance is significantly better than his pre injury self. Usually there is some indication as to a change in style that led to the change in performance but I just may not be smart enough to see it. Either way, its an interesting discussion. What do people think?
Eovaldi went through his second Tommy John surgery in 2016 and most people just assumed he was done, I think. A cautionary tale that talent doesn't always meet performance. When I look at the numbers though, I see a pretty big improvement since he came back from injury. Take a look.
K%
Career best pre 2016 18.5%
2019 - 23.2
2020 - 26.1
2021 - 25.5
BB%
Career best pre 2016 - 5.0% but every other year was over 7.5% before and after 2014
2019 - 4.4%
2020 - 3.5%
2021 - 4.3%
xFIP
Career best - 3.78 (other years 4.80, 4.56, 4.15, 3.81, 4.22)
2019 - 3.67
2020 - 3.32
2021 - 2.64
I'm just not sure WHY he's performing at such a higher level than he was pre-injury. He introduced the cutter in 2016 but only threw it 7.3% of the time. He's throwing that pitch roughly 20% of the time post surgery. He's also ticked up his CB% significantly to 18% from 9% pre surgery. He's also scrapped his change up for a splitter in 2016 which hes throwing about 13% of the time. You would think the change in pitch mix would explain the difference in performance but none of them is really getting him great performance above average (except his curve ball which is a real strength post surgery). It could be a situation where the different pitch mix is creating a "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" scenario but it's unclear.
It's a mystery to me. Batters are swinging and missing at his stuff way more, mostly pitches outside the zone which indicates the splitter and curve ball are pretty effective. Most of the rest of his contact numbers seem pretty similar though.
So I guess my question to the board is "who is this guy?" There is obvious evidence as a Red Sox that Nathan Eovaldi's performance is significantly better than his pre injury self. Usually there is some indication as to a change in style that led to the change in performance but I just may not be smart enough to see it. Either way, its an interesting discussion. What do people think?