What is next for BB?

Ralphwiggum

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I'm not disputing that BB may have "lost it", but what exactly do aging NFL HCs lose? Mental capacity? The drive to win? Clout with the players? All of these?
I don't know, do we think he would have coached until he was 90? At some point he won't be able to do it anymore, maybe that some point is now?

I'm not saying he can't still coach, maybe he can. But I also wouldn't hold it against any of the owners who hired coaches this offseason to prefer someone younger and/or had more recent success.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I don't know, do we think he would have coached until he was 90? At some point he won't be able to do it anymore, maybe that some point is now?

I'm not saying he can't still coach, maybe he can. But I also wouldn't hold it against any of the owners who hired coaches this offseason to prefer someone younger and/or had more recent success.
I think it's more likely what he lost was Tom Brady. That (or at least not having a QB) coupled with some poor decisions in picking offensive draftees and FAs is what's led to the recent suck.
 

Dave Stapleton

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I know I am going to be in the minority but, to me, this is all more of an indictment of NFL front offices than of BB. As Schefter said on Get Up this morning, this is all likely due more to front office self preservation than of a true review of whether BB can coach at this point. You're telling me that each of these teams who have fired coaches over and over again are the one's who deserve the benefit of the doubt over the coach with 6 SBs? Absolutely, last year was a disaster and BB is to blame in putting his trust in a QB and Kicker who likley cost him 5 or 6 games alone, but let's not all of a sudden hold these unsuccesful organizations as bastions of great judgement.
 

Curt S Loew

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I'm not disputing that BB may have "lost it", but what exactly do aging NFL HCs lose? Mental capacity? The drive to win? Clout with the players? All of these?
Probably a little of everything. NFL coaches just don't coach at that age. Only 5 have coached past 70 and Bill and Pete Carroll are 2 of them. Levy, Halas, and Romeo Crennel(interim) are the other three.

I know Bill is a rare specimen and he doesn't appear to have lost the desire but here are some notable coaches ages when they stopped coaching:

Don Shula - 66
Tom Landry - 65
Chuck Noll - 59
Bill Walsh - 57(NFL)

I know, I could have sworn they were older than that too! ;)

Andy Reid is 65 right right now. Which is why some have been talking about him leaving soon.
 

8slim

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I'm not disputing that BB may have "lost it", but what exactly do aging NFL HCs lose? Mental capacity? The drive to win? Clout with the players? All of these?
I watched Jim Boeheim coach until he was 77. It was abundantly clear than in his last few years he wasn’t putting in the hours he once did: he was absent on the recruiting trail, his schemes were increasingly old and ineffective, his player evaluations were poor, etc. He also had problems relating to players that were practically grandchildren to him.

Bill’s not Boeheim, but the grind of football is much more intense than basketball.

People love to say “he didn’t forget how to coach” and that’s true. But bill would be the first to say that coaching successfully requires an obscene amount of time and attention. We all slow down, both physically and mentally. Lose 10% of that edge and you’re not the greatest at what you do anymore.
 

jcd0805

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No chance - his HOF-worthy work as DC of the Giants prior to joining the Patriots assures Belichick's place on the Mount Rushmore of NFL coaching.
I totally agree, just feel like if this is it for him there's going to be too much "yea, but..." for my taste.
 

rodderick

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Getting passed over by Raheem Morris, after multiple interviews and whispers of being the favorite, is just an awful look for Bill. The Falcons are an obvious clown show, of course, but Belichick's agent should have made sure that Bill was only going to take interviews with teams that had already agreed in principle with his mode of operation should he be hired. It's obvious now that the Falcons never had any intention of hiring him once Harbaugh came off the board.


No chance - his HOF-worthy work as DC of the Giants prior to joining the Patriots assures Belichick's place on the Mount Rushmore of NFL coaching.
There's no universe in which Bill would sniff the Hall of Fame without a ticket solely on the back of his DC work with the Giants. Buddy Ryan isn't in.
 

Cellar-Door

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I find some of the "well you're looking for a coach who'll be there a long time" stuff somewhat silly. There are 6 coaches in the NFL right now who have been in their job for more than 5 years. 22 teams will go into next year with coaches who have been with the team 3 years or fewer, 20 will be 2 years or fewer.... Very very few franchise find long term solutions at coach. Worrying about 4 or 5 years from now with Bill would be fooling yourself about how most coaching tenures last. If you think he'll give you 2-3 years of top level coaching.... that's most likely more than you'll get out of whatever younger coach you hire.

I would guess the real answer is far less about that, than it is about concerns about how he fits into your front office organizational power structures.
 

Rook05

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I wonder whether Jon Gruden would write it. He's already written a successful book: View: https://www.amazon.com/Do-You-Love-Football-Winning/dp/B000C4SGOG

He was also totally charming on the ESPN college set before Army-Navy, which produced the all-timer Belichick image below: https://www.patriots.com/video/coach-bill-belichick-discusses-the-history-and-importance-of-army-navy-game-on-e

Hang on. Is this the same sports coat he wore for his farewell press conference?!
 

jcd0805

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I find some of the "well you're looking for a coach who'll be there a long time" stuff somewhat silly. There are 6 coaches in the NFL right now who have been in their job for more than 5 years. 22 teams will go into next year with coaches who have been with the team 3 years or fewer, 20 will be 2 years or fewer.... Very very few franchise find long term solutions at coach. Worrying about 4 or 5 years from now with Bill would be fooling yourself about how most coaching tenures last. If you think he'll give you 2-3 years of top level coaching.... that's most likely more than you'll get out of whatever younger coach you hire.

I would guess the real answer is far less about that, than it is about concerns about how he fits into your front office organizational power structures.
I don't think it's silly at all. Every team wants what the Pats had-decades of stability. Pete Carroll is an excellent coach who is also old, nobody is beating his door down either. It sucks but youth and the chance for a long-term plan is what the teams seem to value most now.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't think it's silly at all. Every team wants what the Pats had-decades of stability. Pete Carroll is an excellent coach who is also old, nobody is beating his door down either. It sucks but youth and the chance for a long-term plan is what the teams seem to value most now.
I think it's bad strategy to ignore the data you have in the hope that you hit an outlier. If most coaches are only going to last 3-5 years, then you shouldn't make how long they might hypothetically last a particularly high priority, especially in the NFL where 90% of your roster is turning over every few years. I think most NFL owners are smart enough that they aren't going into their coaching search with "is young enough that if he turns out to be the greatest coach of his generation AND we hit on our GM, and we hit on QB..... we could get a 7-10 year run." being more important than "is he the best coach for our situation". Especially since half these owners are gonna be dead or bedridden in 10 years, maybe 5.

There are a lot of much better reasons to not hire Bill Belichick than his age
 

ShaneTrot

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I am very torn about this Atlanta hiring. Raheem Morris seems like a nice, capable guy who has paid his dues and deserves another shot at being a head coach. I want to see BB coach again. I think Bill leaving New England will be good for him. If BB didn't get the job because McKay and Fontenot campaigned against him for job preservation reasons, I hope the Falcons crash and burn. Sorry, Raheem.
 

Tony C

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Mac Jones killing Belichick is like Paris felling Achilles, but at least Paris was known for his accuracy.
This deserves some love! :)

We are feeling bad for Bill Belichick now? He’s had a pretty good life, I don’t think he really cares about us. Nothing can take away what the Patriots accomplished when he was here; I’m not so sure why what other people think about his career and how it stacks up to others matters to so many, it doesn’t change what happened here and what it meant to each of us
This is where I'm at. Fair to debate if he's the greatest, great, or a good coach who matched fortuitously with Brady (anyone saying he's a bad coach who just rode Brady's coattails is an idiot). But I also don't get all the rending of garments. I don't really know if he's "despicable" or not, though he certainly does make it his business to arrogantly treat others in public with condescending disdain, which to me is a sign of a jerk. But whatever... he's an extremely wealthy man who is highly respected and also quite old. If he doesn't get hired..so be it.

If I'm an owner I'd hire him in very specific circumstances but not in many other circumstances. Frankly I'd likely hire Pete Carroll in more circumstances, since he's clearly better at working with others, but I'm also not rending my garments if Pete doesn't get a gig. Head coaches might treat themselves like King Louis XIV, but I don't see that they have a right to anything and I can see why BB didn't get any of the jobs that have been on offer.

It isn't just that a year off will mean the right circumstance might arise, but it might also give BB a chance to reflect that given his crappy recent GM/head of operations performance, a demand for control is a bit much for a guy his age and recent track record. He's a great coach and can be for a few more years. But, in his famous phrase, maybe he should content himself with just doing his job -- the one he's great at -- rather than stuff he doesn't seem so great at.
 
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I know I am going to be in the minority but, to me, this is all more of an indictment of NFL front offices than of BB. As Schefter said on Get Up this morning, this is all likely due more to front office self preservation than of a true review of whether BB can coach at this point. You're telling me that each of these teams who have fired coaches over and over again are the one's who deserve the benefit of the doubt over the coach with 6 SBs? Absolutely, last year was a disaster and BB is to blame in putting his trust in a QB and Kicker who likley cost him 5 or 6 games alone, but let's not all of a sudden hold these unsuccesful organizations as bastions of great judgement.
Bingo!

And here's my two cents...

If your excuse for dismissing PC and BB are their ages...

On what planet is Raheem Morris a better option than Mike Vrabel?

This is simply 'self preservation' by front-office folks.
 

joe dokes

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If this source is accurate, BB did want full control in ATL

"Under his decision-making umbrella" is so vague as to be meaningless. (despite the use of fancy-sounding words designed to make it sound specific and official-ish). Not saying he didnt want it all, just that this tweet doesn't really say that, IMO.
"
 

Mystic Merlin

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Bill will most certainly be fine, and he’s been around so long that what people think of his career is basically set in stone at this point. For example, the wins record is great, but whose opinion of Bill would change based on whether he gets it?

I was simultaneously bummed out by the thought of Bill on other team’s sideline and intrigued to see how he did at his next stop, and I’m also cool with Bill becoming some kind of football ambassador, if sooner than I expected.
 

snowmanny

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I'm not disputing that BB may have "lost it", but what exactly do aging NFL HCs lose? Mental capacity? The drive to win? Clout with the players? All of these?
I think one argument would be that the game has changed and he doesn't fully grasp what sort of QB and offensive weapons you need to compete these days. Not saying I believe it.

Also, he always has made draft and personnel and in-game decisions that seemed kind of wait...what (to borrow a phrase). When you're hitting on them you're a genius; when you miss on them you're an idiot; when you're older and miss on them you're in cognitive decline.
 

Justthetippett

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The team that may have made the most sense from the beginning is still out there (officially at least) in Washington. They are rebuilding their football operation. New owner wants to get off on the right foot. I don't even think Peters' hiring precludes BB, since he has the preexisting relationship and has shown he can work well with Caserio, etc. I know all signs are that they will hire Johnson, but I think that could have worked.
 

jcd0805

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Bingo!

And here's my two cents...

If your excuse for dismissing PC and BB are their ages...

On what planet is Raheem Morris a better option than Mike Vrabel?

This is simply 'self preservation' by front-office folks.
Yes teams not jumping on Vrabel is even more mind-boggling to me than BB still being unemployed.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yes teams not jumping on Vrabel is even more mind-boggling to me than BB still being unemployed.
Why? He's a decent but not that accomplished coach who got shown the door in TEN allegedly because he was unable to function with multiple GMs and started looking for an exit when not given player personnel control. Bill Bellichick can point to 2 decades of unprecedented success and 6 rings when asking for player personnel control. Vrabel can point to 3 playoff appearances, and only 2 wins, 5 years ago. What does Vrabel really have that makes him a shoo-in for a job compared to other guys in the field?

Edit- Vrabel is the type of coach that least gets jobs honestly... he's not a playcaller on either side of the ball, he's a motivational guy... other than Tomlin how many of those guys are even left? Teams want scheme technicians now.
 
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Silverdude2167

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Why? He's a decent but not that accomplished coach who got shown the door in TEN allegedly because he was unable to function with multiple GMs and started looking for an exit when not given player personnel control. Bill Bellichick can point to 2 decades of unprecedented success and 6 rings when asking for player personnel control. Vrabel can point to 3 playoff appearances, and only 2 wins, 5 years ago. What does Vrabel really have that makes him a shoo-in for a job compared to other guys in the field?

Edit- Vrabel is the type of coach that least gets jobs honestly... he's not a playcaller on either side of the ball, he's a motivational guy... other than Tomlin how many of those guys are even left? Teams want scheme technicians now.
Did you see who the Falcons hired?

You think he is better than Varbel?
 

Cellar-Door

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Did you see who the Falcons hired?

You think he is better than Varbel?
Not particularly, but I also think he's a guy with a lot of success as a coordinator and who won't want Player Personnel control, and who has a great existing relationship with the decision makers in place.

If just on-field coaching was all that mattered Bill would have a ton of offers, he's still probably the best defensive gameplanner in the league, he has a ridiculous history of success, he likely brings with him one of the more successful OCs of the last 2 decades.
The post I responded to was saying it was more surprising that Vrabel didn't have a job. I was pointing out that Vrabel has a lot of the same fit issues within an organization as Bill, and a lot less to lean on in terms of reasons you should accommodate them.
 

Tony C

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I'd add I don't get the disrespect for Raheem Morris. I have no idea if it'll work out better than his previous stint at TB, but he has all the credentials: highly respected as a coordinator; experience as a head coach; raves about his leadership skills; ability to work as part of a collaborative team. I've always thought that the best hires are on a guy's 2nd go-round. Rookie coaches struggle. BB was 36-44 with the Browns, hardly sterling. But Morris is still super young, has all the possible experience needed, players love to play for him, and based on the how the Rams virtually plead his case apparently coaches/management love him, too.

Maybe Vrabel will have a better 2nd stint, too.
 

Auger34

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I know I am going to be in the minority but, to me, this is all more of an indictment of NFL front offices than of BB. As Schefter said on Get Up this morning, this is all likely due more to front office self preservation than of a true review of whether BB can coach at this point. You're telling me that each of these teams who have fired coaches over and over again are the one's who deserve the benefit of the doubt over the coach with 6 SBs? Absolutely, last year was a disaster and BB is to blame in putting his trust in a QB and Kicker who likley cost him 5 or 6 games alone, but let's not all of a sudden hold these unsuccesful organizations as bastions of great judgement.
Bingo.

This is all preservation and higher ups preferring not to do the hard work that comes with Belichick.
 

Auger34

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Not particularly, but I also think he's a guy with a lot of success as a coordinator and who won't want Player Personnel control, and who has a great existing relationship with the decision makers in place..
He really hasn’t had a lot of success as a coordinator. He’s been mediocre to bad. Coaches and media members have been telling us he’s awesome and such a great coordinator but the numbers don’t back that up at all.

I am all for giving coaches a second chance and I understand he was incredibly young when he coached the Bucs but this is honestly an insane hire. I will have to be given some pretty strong evidence (other than Sean McVay gushing about him when he benefits from Morris being hired by another team) to change my mind and I have yet to see anything close to it
 

sezwho

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He really hasn’t had a lot of success as a coordinator. He’s been mediocre to bad. Coaches and media members have been telling us he’s awesome and such a great coordinator but the numbers don’t back that up at all.

I am all for giving coaches a second chance and I understand he was incredibly young when he coached the Bucs but this is honestly an insane hire. I will have to be given some pretty strong evidence (other than Sean McVay gushing about him when he benefits from Morris being hired by another team) to change my mind and I have yet to see anything close to it
I also hope he does well in his second chance, and no reason to suspect he wouldn’t. I wonder if the result is driven by the process though. I mean obviously it is, but specifically is it the result of doing fifteen interviews once and another bunch a second time over a couple weeks?

He ‘won’ the interviews where Belichick ‘lost’ (assuming he truly wanted the job and isn’t holding out for better) presumably because he didn’t present as comprehensive a plan and he didn’t blow away the room.

I’ll bet that’s true: the young charismatic go getter has a 50 point plan with options and a bunch of energy and certainly not the same ‘splainin to do about the last several years.

My question is, is that really the best way to do things? I mean specifically the scale of interviews. I would want the perspectives and ideas, sure, but it kind of turns into a weird talent show. Maybe that was the (Rich’s?) point.
 

slamminsammya

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I also hope he does well in his second chance, and no reason to suspect he wouldn’t. I wonder if the result is driven by the process though. I mean obviously it is, but specifically is it the result of doing fifteen interviews once and another bunch a second time over a couple weeks?

He ‘won’ the interviews where Belichick ‘lost’ (assuming he truly wanted the job and isn’t holding out for better) presumably because he didn’t present as comprehensive a plan and he didn’t blow away the room.

I’ll bet that’s true: the young charismatic go getter has a 50 point plan with options and a bunch of energy and certainly not the same ‘splainin to do about the last several years.

My question is, is that really the best way to do things? I mean specifically the scale of interviews. I would want the perspectives and ideas, sure, but it kind of turns into a weird talent show. Maybe that was the (Rich’s?) point.
I think whatever process NFL teams go through to choose head coaches is really dumb - it might not be but that would mean their process for deciding when to fire them is also very bad.

The whole "hire a coordinator whose unit was good regardless of the talent on it" thinking has led to so many many peter principle guys over the years.
 

jcd0805

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Why? He's a decent but not that accomplished coach who got shown the door in TEN allegedly because he was unable to function with multiple GMs and started looking for an exit when not given player personnel control. Bill Bellichick can point to 2 decades of unprecedented success and 6 rings when asking for player personnel control. Vrabel can point to 3 playoff appearances, and only 2 wins, 5 years ago. What does Vrabel really have that makes him a shoo-in for a job compared to other guys in the field?

Edit- Vrabel is the type of coach that least gets jobs honestly... he's not a playcaller on either side of the ball, he's a motivational guy... other than Tomlin how many of those guys are even left? Teams want scheme technicians now.
He got Ryan Tannehill to the AFC championship. I believe it was his GM who made the stellar decision to trade away AJ Brown, no? I think that’s a valid reason to not get along with him. He’s the same age as Raheem as has had much more success as a head coach, that’s why I’m surpsied Raheem got a gig before him.
 

Cellar-Door

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He got Ryan Tannehill to the AFC championship. I believe it was his GM who made the stellar decision to trade away AJ Brown, no? I think that’s a valid reason to not get along with him. He’s the same age as Raheem as has had much more success as a head coach, that’s why I’m surpsied Raheem got a gig before him.
He had 2 GMs, and he took a pretty loaded team nowhere after that one kinda fluky season, (they were 9-7 and won two playoff games with Derrick Henry running for THREE HUNDRED SEVENTY SEVEN yards in them). Also, seriously... you think AJ Brown is the difference between a 1 seed and a below .500 team? It also doesn't explain why his team with AJ Brown shit the bed as a home playoff favorite.
He might be a solid enough coach, but his record is basically similar to Bill O'Brien, except he got himself fired a year earlier
 

j-man

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I am very torn about this Atlanta hiring. Raheem Morris seems like a nice, capable guy who has paid his dues and deserves another shot at being a head coach. I want to see BB coach again. I think Bill leaving New England will be good for him. If BB didn't get the job because McKay and Fontenot campaigned against him for job preservation reasons, I hope the Falcons crash and burn. Sorry, Raheem.
i agree with u 100% i really think had this happed last season he would had a shot in Denver denver new owners wanted a big name and with bill denver would had kept their 1st round pick the gm likely would had left the only drawbacks would be
1 no josh
2 likely had to keep wilson a year
3 denver is not shy about giveing a coach full power did it with reeves shanny josh
4 denver is paying payton 17 mil a year likey for bill they wouild had went 20-25 mil

i know its far away from nantucket but mrkraft better thank the man upspairs for sean payton wanting to get back in so quick because i doubt bill loses to Vegas 2x wash jets and ne all at home
let just say will bill as head coach of the broncos denver at least makes the playoffs
 

Reardon's Beard

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If he embraced it, and a big if...Belichick would be the anti media media personality with the sharpest takes. No fucks to give and could roast anyone to the delight of everyone. He could be America's coach and everyone would take their football IQ up a few points each week.
 

j-man

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If he embraced it, and a big if...Belichick would be the anti media media personality with the sharpest takes. No fucks to give and could roast anyone to the delight of everyone. He could be America's coach and everyone would take their football IQ up a few points each week.
yeah he couild be coach madden just not as peronbale
 

Swedgin

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I know I am going to be in the minority but, to me, this is all more of an indictment of NFL front offices than of BB. As Schefter said on Get Up this morning, this is all likely due more to front office self preservation than of a true review of whether BB can coach at this point. You're telling me that each of these teams who have fired coaches over and over again are the one's who deserve the benefit of the doubt over the coach with 6 SBs? Absolutely, last year was a disaster and BB is to blame in putting his trust in a QB and Kicker who likley cost him 5 or 6 games alone, but let's not all of a sudden hold these unsuccesful organizations as bastions of great judgement.
There are a lot of valid reasons for teams to be wary of hiring BB:
  1. The Judge/Patricia debacle. I am a process first guy. That decision was gross malpractice. Even setting aside the GM of it all, assembling a staff is (usually) on the coach. BB has never offered (reportedly even to ownership) a cogent explanation for that decision.
    1. 1. Multiple folks have reported that BB is not interested in "coaching coaches" at this point in his career. This is the only logical (if not rationale from the standpoint of the best interests of the team) explanation for hiring Judge and Matty P. If there is truth to reporting that BB wants to work only with people he knows and who know his terminology/methodology, then a team would be hiring a coach definitionally incapable of hiring a quality staff.
  2. Buying the groceries. The GM of it all. He has had unfettered control for at least decade. The recent results have not been good. Even if he proclaims that he doesn't want control (he reportedly said the precisely the opposite to ATL), how well is that going to work in practice. Think of your own experience. BB is still a human being - monotone robotic press conferences notwithstanding. Do you really think he can help himself after all that time and power.
  3. Special teams/penalties. The Special Teams/penalties were the canary in the coal mine. Mr. All Four Phases and disciplined football - coached teams that failed on both fronts. While he might still be a top notch DC, the idea that BB is still an elite head coach is not born out by the results. Six SB and all times have no bearing on what kind of coach he is NOW.
  4. While the press conference was a nice touch, BB and the Krafts apparently not had a good relationship for some time. Owners are human beings to. For many if not most owner now, an NFL team is a fun toy - not the their primary business. When its time to play with your toy, do want to have deal with a curmudgeon or a kiss ass.
 

radsoxfan

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I find some of the "well you're looking for a coach who'll be there a long time" stuff somewhat silly. There are 6 coaches in the NFL right now who have been in their job for more than 5 years. 22 teams will go into next year with coaches who have been with the team 3 years or fewer, 20 will be 2 years or fewer.... Very very few franchise find long term solutions at coach. Worrying about 4 or 5 years from now with Bill would be fooling yourself about how most coaching tenures last. If you think he'll give you 2-3 years of top level coaching.... that's most likely more than you'll get out of whatever younger coach you hire.

I would guess the real answer is far less about that, than it is about concerns about how he fits into your front office organizational power structures.
Agree with the organizational power structure issue, but I think you're under estimating the "long term upside" many teams are hoping for with a head coaching hire.

Certainly this doesn't happen often (maybe only 10-20% of the time?), but when it does, it's massive. Hires like McVay, Shanahan, Harbaugh etc. are hugely valuable. Just because it's not that common doesn't mean it's not a big factor in the hiring process. A lot of teams are willing to risk hiring a potential flame out that's likely worse than BB will be over the next 2-3 years for the chance at a long term solution.

Basically, a short term dud of a hire is not as bad as a long term homerun hire is good. BB is going to have a higher likelihood of being at least OK for a few years (and maybe that's all a team like Buf or Dal needs), but most of bad teams without a coach are hoping for more.

NFL teams draft on upside all the time, even if that upside won't hit very often. That's a huge % of the value of any draft pick and any new head coaching hire as well. Hard to see the BB upside for some of these young mediocre teams. Makes a lot more sense for a very good team that just needs to avoid having a below average coach, but that opportunity hasn't presented itself (yet).
 
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Gdiguy

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Eh I think that's true and not true...

NFL teams draft on upside all the time, even if that upside won't hit very often. That's a huge % of the value of any draft pick and any new head coaching hire as well. Hard to see the BB upside for some of these young mediocre teams. Makes a lot more sense for a very good team that just needs to avoid having a below average coach, but that opportunity hasn't presented itself (yet).
Like the bolded is true, but it's true because everyone you're drafting has zero track record in the NFL - and even picks that are supposed to have a 'high floor' still flame out a lot more often than former all-Pro players do.

Certainly this doesn't happen often (maybe only 10-20% of the time?), but when it does, it's massive. Hires like McVay, Shanahan, Harbaugh etc. are hugely valuable. Just because it's not that common doesn't mean it's not a big factor in the hiring process. A lot of teams are willing to risk hiring a potential flame out that's likely worse than BB will be over the next 2-3 years for the chance at a long term solution.

Basically, a short term dud of a hire is not as bad as a long term homerun hire is good. BB is going to have a higher likelihood of being at least OK for a few years (and maybe that's all a team like Buf or Dal needs), but most of bad teams without a coach are hoping for more.
I agree this is what's actually happening, and even that for some teams that are looking at a decade-long rebuild it could be the right call... but I think the risk/reward is a lot closer than you're suggesting. Buf or Dal needs 'ok' like tomorrow; there's a number of teams for which 'above-average competence' could mean playoff contention within 3-4 years

But bigger-picture, I think your point also hits on the negative aspect of this - which is that Owners and GMs also want to have that massive 'home run hire'. The funny thing about this coming full circle is that I'd argue R Kraft is a prime example of this, where (even in other threads here) his decision to hire BB is a huge part of what gives him 'what a smart owner' credibility, and every other owner wants that

I dunno; I feel like you see this a lot across sports (hell, I'd argue it's at least part of what people dislike about Bloom, fairly or not), where some GM/owners want to win (as in the championship), and some want to "win" (as in seem smarter than the other GMs & owners) - and the former has more success, because the latter wind up so focused on whether they're able to find diamonds in the rough or win every trade or avoid embarrassing failed FA signings that they never actually push the chips in to trying to win a title.
 

Auger34

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He had 2 GMs, and he took a pretty loaded team nowhere after that one kinda fluky season, (they were 9-7 and won two playoff games with Derrick Henry running for THREE HUNDRED SEVENTY SEVEN yards in them). Also, seriously... you think AJ Brown is the difference between a 1 seed and a below .500 team? It also doesn't explain why his team with AJ Brown shit the bed as a home playoff favorite.
He might be a solid enough coach, but his record is basically similar to Bill O'Brien, except he got himself fired a year earlier
….and that record is a shit ton better than Raheem Morris.

You’re argument basically boils down to Morris hypothetically gets along better with his GM so he’s a better hire and heavily discounts actual coaching ability
 

Eddie Jurak

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I find some of the "well you're looking for a coach who'll be there a long time" stuff somewhat silly. There are 6 coaches in the NFL right now who have been in their job for more than 5 years. 22 teams will go into next year with coaches who have been with the team 3 years or fewer, 20 will be 2 years or fewer.... Very very few franchise find long term solutions at coach. Worrying about 4 or 5 years from now with Bill would be fooling yourself about how most coaching tenures last. If you think he'll give you 2-3 years of top level coaching.... that's most likely more than you'll get out of whatever younger coach you hire.

I would guess the real answer is far less about that, than it is about concerns about how he fits into your front office organizational power structures.
I think it's bad strategy to ignore the data you have in the hope that you hit an outlier. If most coaches are only going to last 3-5 years, then you shouldn't make how long they might hypothetically last a particularly high priority, especially in the NFL where 90% of your roster is turning over every few years. I think most NFL owners are smart enough that they aren't going into their coaching search with "is young enough that if he turns out to be the greatest coach of his generation AND we hit on our GM, and we hit on QB..... we could get a 7-10 year run." being more important than "is he the best coach for our situation". Especially since half these owners are gonna be dead or bedridden in 10 years, maybe 5.

There are a lot of much better reasons to not hire Bill Belichick than his age
I assume coachng tenure and coaching success are highly correlated, and no teams are out there looking for a coach who will fail.
 

rodderick

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….and that record is a shit ton better than Raheem Morris.

You’re argument basically boils down to Morris hypothetically gets along better with his GM so he’s a better hire and heavily discounts actual coaching ability
Also better than Bill's in the past 4 years. People don't seem to realize that the only franchise that had reason to heavily weigh what Bill accomplished 10+ years ago was the Patriots, and they fired him. No team is looking at Bill with the sort of reverence he'd get in, say, 2015.
 

lexrageorge

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I guess I can interpret in 2 ways that latest report from the Xitter post linked above:

1.) Bill truly wanted full control over personnel, and had no interest in the job if he didn't get it. Maybe unrealistic, but totally fair if he wants to do things his way or not at all.

2.) Bill didn't want full control, but wanted input into who to draft and who to sign. Not really all that different from most experienced coaches such as Reid and Harbaugh. However, when the GM wants to draft a receiver and Bill wants a guard instead, it will make for an awkward situation in the draft room not unlike the one experienced with Kraft, Parcells, and Grier.

Or maybe it's just Bill's age. Because this is no way, no how Morris is a better football coach than Belichick.
 

Devizier

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Fair disclosure, wanted to keep Belichick although didn’t feel particularly strongly about it. Certainly have no doubts about his legacy.

I think one thing people are overlooking about Belichick is a lot of owners believe the Ballghazi, Spygate stuff. They think he’s a cheater and an asshole besides. So theres going to be a contingent out there that wants nothing to do with him. I think this came into play with Brady, too.
 

johnmd20

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….and that record is a shit ton better than Raheem Morris.

You’re argument basically boils down to Morris hypothetically gets along better with his GM so he’s a better hire and heavily discounts actual coaching ability
To some people, process is way way more important than results.

Belichick had a good process, so the fact that the Pats scored the least amount of points in the NFL is a point in their favor because they stuck to their process.(of picking bad players) But, hey, at least it's an ethos.
 

lexrageorge

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To some people, process is way way more important than results.

Belichick had a good process, so the fact that the Pats scored the least amount of points in the NFL is a point in their favor because they stuck to their process.(of picking bad players) But, hey, at least it's an ethos.
That’s not what happened.