What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 20, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
Well you're right about that, and in fact you've hit on what's really happening here. The market has essentially talked (screamed?) the team out of a proven strategy for building a truly high-ceiling team.

To be fair, we don't know this yet.

They could very well think that the strategy is 100% right and after 4 years of knowing the choices Bloom had in front of him and made (or didn't make) that they think someone else can better implement the same strategy with more balanced results in the farm system AND better results at the major league level.

A hire of someone like Sestanovich, Fast, Click, Gomes, Hazen or even promotion of Romero would seem to be evidence that they think the strategy is right but the person implementing the strategy is not the best choice (this is my personal feeling, and has been since the failure to at least offer the 6/$150m type contract to Bogaerts before 2022 and let him say no and the trade deadline that summer).

Now, if they go out and hire AJ Preller or Billy Eppler, I think you can make the above claim. But I don't think they will.

Rovin Romine · Sep 20, 2023

Carmine Hose said:
I am referring to superstars. They have value to a franchise beyond on the field.

Which is what, exactly?

chrisfont9 · Sep 20, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
To be fair, we don't know this yet.

They could very well think that the strategy is 100% right and after 4 years of knowing the choices Bloom had in front of him and made (or didn't make) that they think someone else can better implement the same strategy with more balanced results in the farm system AND better results at the major league level.

A hire of someone like Sestanovich, Fast, Click, Gomes, Hazen or even promotion of Romero would seem to be evidence that they think the strategy is right but the person implementing the strategy is not the best choice (this is my personal feeling, and has been since the failure to at least offer the 6/$150m type contract to Bogaerts before 2022 and let him say no and the trade deadline that summer).

Now, if they go out and hire AJ Preller or Billy Eppler, I think you can make the above claim. But I don't think they will.

Fair. I think they are being performatively impatient for the reasons Carmine stated, but if they take their PR "win" and get back to sensible roster building, albeit with heightened aggression thanks to progress with prospects and CBT room, then maybe they will talk a bit more openly about the team's actual direction.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 20, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
Fair. I think they are being performatively impatient for the reasons Carmine stated, but if they take their PR "win" and get back to sensible roster building, albeit with heightened aggression thanks to progress with prospects and CBT room, then maybe they will talk a bit more openly about the team's actual direction.

We'll see. As others have mentioned, I really just don't see what Bloom did "better" than any number of executives from the Friedman tree would have done.

Which - by the way - is absolutely fine if you are the Tampa Bay Rays (the ownership; not the guys in uniform) and are fine with turning a profit and being competitive every year and never extending yourselves to win a damn thing. It's a very lucrative and sustainable model. I think Bloom would be an absolute slam dunk in that type of environment and have tons of success - heck, he might even buy and hold his way to a World Series title like Kansas City did.

Put him in Miami, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, Arizona, Colorado, Oakland, KC, Detroit, ChW, Minnesota, Cleveland, Toronto or staying in Tampa Bay and I think he'd absolutely build a team like the Billy Beane As that consistently competes, "over-achieves" and ultimately loses every time they have to face other teams that are smart AND have money round after round after round (ie the playoffs). It's a system that is built incredibly well to sustain and have success over a 162 game season and make a ton of money.

I'm not going to lie, in many ways I think Theo's "the playoffs are a crapshoot" was more in line with thinking of the idea of "the big lie"; say it long enough and loud enough and eventually people will believe it. He also never really ACTED like that. (Extending himself arguably the greatest post-season pitchers of our lifetime; trading for Beckett in many ways because of his 2003 post-season; giving up Torres for two months of Aroldis Chapman, etc. Those aren't the moves you make if you truly believe the playoffs are a crapshoot - but by all means, TELL everyone you believe that).

My hope is the Red Sox find someone that balances those two ends. Focuses on the "long term" with the development of the sustainable pipeline. But also reads the post-season landscape AND believes in his own convictions enough to make those bold moves - and then continues to rebuild the pipeline (DDski had the "bold" part down; not the rest; Cherington I think was pretty good at it and is the one that I truly think got that raw deal in Boston. Not Epstein good, mind you, but solid).

By the way, none of this is to say that Bloom stunk - as I've always said, I think he was a pretty good GM, and was building a team that would be sustainable long term, would always be in the thick of things, and ultimately wouldn't win jack (like the Hart to Shaprio to Antonetti Indians). I understand why people are fine with that and just want good baseball to enjoy for 162 games season after season. Truly no judgement. I will say that I'm not content with that, and I'm glad that FSG isn't content with that either.

I think they like the things Bloom did well, and now want to find someone else who can do those things well AND make better judgements about the MLB roster. Hopefully it's one of the Sestanovich / Click types and they do just that - and if / when they don't, move on from them in 4/5 years too and try again.

*Now watch them go and throw $25m at Dave Dombrowski to come back and I'll have to eat my words.

Carmine Hose · Sep 20, 2023

Rovin Romine said:
Which is what, exactly?

Ratings, ticket sales, sponsorships.....money

sezwho · Sep 20, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
We'll see. As others have mentioned, I really just don't see what Bloom did "better" than any number of executives from the Friedman tree would have done.

Which - by the way - is absolutely fine if you are the Tampa Bay Rays (the ownership; not the guys in uniform) and are fine with turning a profit and being competitive every year and never extending yourselves to win a damn thing. It's a very lucrative and sustainable model. I think Bloom would be an absolute slam dunk in that type of environment and have tons of success - heck, he might even buy and hold his way to a World Series title like Kansas City did.

Put him in Miami, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Cincinatti, Arizona, Colorado, Oakland, KC, Detroit, ChW, Minnesota, Cleveland, Toronto or staying in Tampa Bay and I think he'd absolutely build a team like the Billy Beane As that consistently competes, "over-achieves" and ultimately loses every time they have to face other teams that are smart AND have money round after round after round (ie the playoffs). It's a system that is built incredibly well to sustain and have success over a 162 game season and make a ton of money.

I'm not going to lie, in many ways I think Theo's "the playoffs are a crapshoot" was more in line with thinking of the idea of "the big lie"; say it long enough and loud enough and eventually people will believe it. He also never really ACTED like that. (Extending himself arguably the greatest post-season pitchers of our lifetime; trading for Beckett in many ways because of his 2003 post-season; giving up Torres for two months of Aroldis Chapman, etc. Those aren't the moves you make if you truly believe the playoffs are a crapshoot - but by all means, TELL everyone you believe that).

My hope is the Red Sox find someone that balances those two ends. Focuses on the "long term" with the development of the sustainable pipeline. But also reads the post-season landscape AND believes in his own convictions enough to make those bold moves - and then continues to rebuild the pipeline (DDski had the "bold" part down; not the rest; Cherington I think was pretty good at it and is the one that I truly think got that raw deal in Boston. Not Epstein good, mind you, but solid).

By the way, none of this is to say that Bloom stunk - as I've always said, I think he was a pretty good GM, and was building a team that would be sustainable long term, would always be in the thick of things, and ultimately wouldn't win jack (like the Hart to Shaprio to Antonetti Indians). I understand why people are fine with that and just want good baseball to enjoy for 162 games season after season. Truly no judgement. I will say that I'm not content with that, and I'm glad that FSG isn't content with that either.

I think they like the things Bloom did well, and now want to find someone else who can do those things well AND make better judgements about the MLB roster. Hopefully it's one of the Sestanovich / Click types and they do just that - and if / when they don't, move on from them in 4/5 years too and try again.

*Now watch them go and throw $25m at Dave Dombrowski to come back and I'll have to eat my words.

This is almost exactly what I think, though expressed more eloquently.

Really interesting point about The Big Lie, it’s got me challenging my own assumptions to be honest. Also, even if it’s mostly a crapshoot, wouldn’t you wanna skew the odds as much as you could? Anyway, thanks for that.

I do happen to think that buy-and-hold would eventually work though, at least on the $200m payroll scale, but might be on the order of 10 year plan. To be clear, not saying Bloom would only have ever been buy hold.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 20, 2023

sezwho said:
This is almost exactly what I think, though expressed more eloquently.

Really interesting point about The Big Lie, it’s got me challenging my own assumptions to be honest. Also, even if it’s mostly a crapshoot, wouldn’t you wanna skew the odds as much as you could? Anyway, thanks for that.

I do happen to think that buy-and-hold would eventually work though, at least on the $200m payroll scale, but might be on the order of 10 year plan. To be clear, not saying Bloom would only have ever been buy hold.

Thanks.

To be fair, I also think eventually Bloom would have sold someone (even KC did with Cueto). Though I think we are seeing more and more reports (not just out of Boston) that at minimum give reasonable doubt as to if he is the best the Red Sox could reasonably do in succeeding with a strategy that isn’t exactly unknown in baseball.

To the “crapshoot” point:

It’s exactly what Billy Beane or someone without a ton of financial resources should say. It also makes sense for a big market exec to say that. It gives them an out if they don’t win a World Series and is a way to erase blame or accountability. I think there are some execs that truly believe it, and others that just say it because it’s smart to say it.

But someone that truly believes that doesn’t have a track record of identifying and extending themselves for pieces that have shown the ability to continue performing at a high level against other “high level performers” at the highest levels of pressure.

If you believe it’s pure dumb luck, you don’t go aggressively after the best post season pitcher of the generation, and target guys like Beckett (2003), Lackey (Theo went after him twice following his run for LAA and was ultimately right both times) and Lester (bringing him to the Cubs). He also - intelligently of course - continued to pay up for Ortiz season after season after season.

You‘re not going to be right all the time, but I’d bet the house that Epstein (and probably others) believe that it’s more like a poker game than a crapshoot. Yes, if the cards just don’t fall in your favor there is nothing you can do about it, but there are strategies that give you better chances of wining because you ARE going up against other people and not a literal roll of the dice.

Rant about my Theo adoration over because he’s not coming back. But I hope we find someone more Theo and less Billy Beane.

I bet Henry - as a wildly successful business and baseball owner - thinks he can.

(This fan thinks he can also).

chrisfont9 · Sep 20, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Thanks.

To be fair, I also think eventually Bloom would have sold someone (even KC did with Cueto). Though I think we are seeing more and more reports (not just out of Boston) that at minimum give reasonable doubt as to if he is the best the Red Sox could reasonably do in succeeding with a strategy that isn’t exactly unknown in baseball.

To the “crapshoot” point:

It’s exactly what Billy Beane or someone without a ton of financial resources should say. It also makes sense for a big market exec to say that. It gives them an out if they don’t win a World Series and is a way to erase blame or accountability. I think there are some execs that truly believe it, and others that just say it because it’s smart to say it.

But someone that truly believes that doesn’t have a track record of identifying and extending themselves for pieces that have shown the ability to continue performing at a high level against other “high level performers” at the highest levels of pressure.

If you believe it’s pure dumb luck, you don’t go aggressively after the best post season pitcher of the generation, and target guys like Beckett (2003), Lackey (Theo went after him twice following his run for LAA and was ultimately right both times) and Lester (bringing him to the Cubs). He also - intelligently of course - continued to pay up for Ortiz season after season after season.

You‘re not going to be right all the time, but I’d bet the house that Epstein (and probably others) believe that it’s more like a poker game than a crapshoot. Yes, if the cards just don’t fall in your favor there is nothing you can do about it, but there are strategies that give you better chances of wining because you ARE going up against other people and not a literal roll of the dice.

Rant about my Theo adoration over because he’s not coming back. But I hope we find someone more Theo and less Billy Beane.

I bet Henry - as a wildly successful business and baseball owner - thinks he can.

(This fan thinks he can also).

Yeah, this is how I see it, it's a crapshoot unless you can line up a playoff rotation of at least one outlier of an alpha dog pitcher (Beckett, Lester), or a whole bunch of very good ones to wear an offense down (Pedro-Schilling etc., Price-Sale-Eovaldi). Then you are playing the pressure game and over a best-of-7 series you can break your opponent. I would make a very uncomfortable offer of prospects for Framber Valdez if I thought it were ever possible to get him.

HangingW/ScottCooper · Sep 20, 2023

dhappy42 said:
I’m not in favor of it, but what’s illogical about it?

At least for 2024, multiple DHs in Yoshida and Shohei.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 21, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
Yeah, this is how I see it, it's a crapshoot unless you can line up a playoff rotation of at least one outlier of an alpha dog pitcher (Beckett, Lester), or a whole bunch of very good ones to wear an offense down (Pedro-Schilling etc., Price-Sale-Eovaldi). Then you are playing the pressure game and over a best-of-7 series you can break your opponent. I would make a very uncomfortable offer of prospects for Framber Valdez if I thought it were ever possible to get him.

Love this idea, but I agree about the impossibility of getting him. Though he would certainly be wasted pitching in front of the Boston infield defense.

I'd also give up some uncomfortable pieces for Cristian Javier as well. I likewise doubt he'd be at all available, but based on his struggles this year, I'd at least hope the new baseball czar is planning on lobbing a phone call in just to check and see.

The name I hope Boston really targets in Free Agency (at least on a cursory look) is Jordan Montgomery. I cannot imagine he's going to command anywhere near the money of someone like Yamomoto, Nola or Snell, but he's exactly what Boston needs. A dependable, 30 starts a year, 2 to 3 bWAR pitcher to provide stability to the rotation and be someone that you can count on building in rest for the bullpen the day he starts (or heavier usage of the 'pen the days surrounding him if one prefers).

His "value" would probably be that of a two, but generally speaking he and Gilbert both go deep enough in games (relatively speaking to 2020s baseball) that I'd want to split them up in the rotation to optimize bullpen usage.

I know some would rather just pay money and keep the prospects - and I totally understand that line of thinking - but free agency for starting pitching is so littered with landmines that I'd almost rather spend the prospect capital to get someone young and with term to add to the front half of the rotation.

My personal hope for the off-season and subsequent 2024 rotation remains:

Logan Gilbert (Bleis, Yorke, Verdugo to replace Teoscar in RF for them next year and Pivetta to be there until Robbie Ray is back - also checks out on BTV but we MIGHT have to add a prospect as it's slanted toward Boston).
Bello
One of Ryu or Maeda
Montgomery
Houck/Crawford battle

*Trade a fully paid Chris Sale to hopefully recoup some of the prospects lost to acquire Logan Gilbert (or similar).

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 21, 2023

JM3 said:
This may be silly, but it concerns me how hard people hit the ball off Logan Gilbert.

He's in the 9th percentile in average exit velocity & 10th percentile in hard hit rate. The one thing he does really well is not walk people...which is nice...but people hitting the ball that hard, that often is concerning.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/logan-gilbert-669302?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Seems to me as someone that gets absolutely tagged when he misses his spots - but he doesn't miss his spots very often.

He also, amazingly, has a better career split (ERA) on the road, similar K rate and similar WHIP, so he's not "just" a product of Safeco. But it's the consistency I adore, along with the extension he offers and what seems to be a low effort delivery (this is admittedly based on watching him infrequently - and prospect reports so someone can correct me if I'm way off base, but the scouting reports back up what I've seen when I've watched him pitch). https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/tag/Logan+Gilbert

Just to tie it back to someone we've been discussing, he's like the anti-Cabrera.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 22, 2023

JM3 said:
I mean, he's clearly a very solid MLB pitcher. I just have significant concerns about a guy coming to Boston & allowing people to hit the ball hard 45% of the time considering out stadium, division & defense. I do like how he continues in a reasonably effective manner deeper into games, but he has a top 10 defense, the easiest stadium in the league for pitchers (#31), & the rest of the AL West isn't exactly a bunch of launchpads (13, 14, 17 & 21).

Compare that to the Red Sox where they play in the #2 hitters park &, have by far the worst defense in MLB, I don't think he has the same success or gets as deep into games if you move the same pitcher throwing the same pitches to our situation.

Also, philosophically, a guy who is getting hit that hard while exhibiting great control, is the type of guy who is really concerning to fall off a cliff if his control declines - unless there's a corresponding stuff increase, which is of course possible at 26.

So I admit to not knowing how to find career split data from a site other than bb-ref, so if there are others with better predictive data please tell me (genuinely asking), but bb-ref is where I looked to discern Safeco vs non Safeco data.

Generally speaking, I too would have pause looking at someone coming from a pitcher's park to a hitter's one, that is a concern I share and look into first. I understand that ERA isn't necessarily predictive, but it does show that he has - at least to this point - actually fared better away from Safeco than at it. So that is what I looked into before developing my own opinion on why he is a player I'd target and move serious prospect capital for.

The largest data size is to look at simple home / road splits:

Over the course of his career he's logged:
41 starts in Seattle where the opposition hits .244/.280/.416/.695 against him. He strikes out 9 per 9ip, and his k/bb ratio is an amazing 5.63 to 1. That has yielded a 3.97ERA at Safeco.

45 starts on the road, where he's been a little better - or at least tougher to hit - .236/.291/.398/.689. Oddly the exact same 9.0k per 9 but a slightly less mind blowing but still excellent 3.72k / bb ratio. This has given him an even better 3.60ERA away from Seattle.

I did a little further digging (which admittedly is going to lead to incredibly small sample size variance, and in the AL East parks (obviously facing AL East opponents) he's put up an expected stat line between the two. He's only faced each team in their home park once (aside from 2 in Tampa), but as much as one can yield from 6 starts he's been slightly better in the AL East parks that he's been in Seattle.

Truly I understand why the hard hit batted ball data might give someone pause, but the other factors (age, contract status, performance, durability, mechanics) make him someone I'd be certainly willing to invest heavily in. Don't get me wrong, I'd rather land Spencer Strider, but I'm trying to keep it somewhat in the bounds of "I can see why DiPoto might listen on Gilbert if we offered him Bleis, Yorke, Verdugo and Pivetta" whereas Anthopolous would assume that the Boston front office had been taken over by WEEI callers if that were offered for Strider.

Vermonter At Large · Sep 22, 2023

I extracted this from an article on MLB.com by the Brewers' beat writer:

"Lowest xwOBA allowed, SP, since All-Star break:
1. Brewers: .287
2. Rays: .300
3. Twins: .302
4. Red Sox: .306
5. Blue Jays: .307"

Discuss.

RedOctober3829 · Sep 22, 2023

HangingW/ScottCooper said:
At least for 2024, multiple DHs in Yoshida and Shohei.

If you can sign Ohtani, you make it work with Yoshida in left field. No question about it.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 22, 2023

JM3 said:
I use Fangraphs for splits, but my point isn't that he only pitches well in his really good pitching park home. Just that it's a really good spot for pitchers & his ERA would absolutely be higher & his innings per start would absolutely be lower over the course of a season if he played his home games at Fenway instead & had the disastrous '23 Red Sox defense rather than the quite good Mariners one.

The unanswerable question (to me) is how much worse? & the fact that people hit the ball that hard against him concerns me that it would be more of a drop off, rather than less.

So it feels to me like we'd be buying high on him & we'd immediately feel disappointed about the return... unless the Red Sox defense gets significantly better, or he becomes even better at actual pitching. Which is of course possible.

Off the top of my head, I'd use Kevin Gausman as a reasonable comp. Gausman induces a bit more whiffs and has a bit higher chase rate, but doesn't limit the walks the same way Gilbert does. Both pitchers tend to get hit very hard when they get hit. 21st% barrel and 22nd% hard hit percentiles for Gausman; 27th% barrel and 10th% hard hit for Gilbert.

Again, not an exact comp (Toronto is more of a hitter's park than Fenway) but just for a rough expectation from someone with similar batted ball data that came from a big park (SF) to the AL East, and Gausman has pitched to a 3.32ERA his two seasons in Toronto; I'd probably equate that to around a 3.70ERA (ish) for Gilbert in Boston.

Though, admittedly this doesn't really matter because I highly doubt Seattle would take hitting prospects for Gilbert that aren't Roman Anthony (which I probably wouldn't do) or Marcelo Mayer (which I probably would), but either way regardless of what BTV says, I highly doubt Yorke, Bleis, Verdugo and Pivetta or anything comparable get it done. Just fun to think about because I believe trading for a SP and signing pieces like Montgomery and Maeda/Ryu is a better bet than spending big in free agency.

Realistically, I think the Sox have two choices. Roll the dice and spend serious money in free agency or have continued below league average pitching for the next couple of years since there are a lot of rotation holes and there isn't anyone on the horizon to fix said problem before lets say 2026 otherwise. It's a tough spot to be in for the new front office for sure.

chrisfont9 · Sep 22, 2023

Vermonter At Large said:
I extracted this from an article on MLB.com by the Brewers' beat writer:

"Lowest xwOBA allowed, SP, since All-Star break:
1. Brewers: .287
2. Rays: .300
3. Twins: .302
4. Red Sox: .306
5. Blue Jays: .307"

Discuss.

Total team pitching is 24th in ERA, 26th in WHIP post ASB. So either that stat says the Sox were incredibly unlucky with BABIP or the bullpen is largely to blame. They have given up a lot of three-run homers, which is a cluster thing that wouldn't show up in any OBA numbers.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 22, 2023

Either way, I'm willing to table any Gilbert talk until he's even mentioned as somewhat of a possibility from somewhere other than my home office...

On Montgomery, I pictured him as getting something a bit more than Taillon and Senga, so call it 5/$85m - might have to go to 5/$95m since Boston isn't really seen as a contender in the baseball landscape right now (if this matters to Montgomery, no idea if it does).

I suppose on Ryu and Maeda, it's more an agree to disagree on how good our cost-controlled guys really are.

I think Bello certainly is and he's 1 spot. I feel pretty good giving the #5 spot to one of Crawford / Houck and putting the other in the 'pen. I have no confidence in penciling them both in, and even less confidence in penciling in anyone else the Sox have at MLB, AAA or AA in place of one of those two. I have literally zero confidence in Chris Sale and if the next PoBO wants to bank on his health and let him scuttle another season, so be it, but I'd be amazed to see someone make the same mistake as two prior GMs, both of whom in essence got fired in large part due to banking on said individual.

JM3 said:
Eh, I think they're in a fine spot & they have $80m to spend & some good top of the rotation options available, & lots of ways to get creative. Spending their budget on guys who aren't really an improvement over their cost-controlled guys does not seem like much of a way forward, unless they're trading some of those cost controlled guys for value.

We'll see. $80m can get spent up pretty quickly when you have 3 holes in the rotation to fill, no middle of the order RH presence under contract, no SP prospects that look capable of taking a spot in 2024 or 2025, at least to do it with ERAs below call it 4.50 or such. I do think the Sox will land someone, but I hope it's not another situation where we have two dependable starters and then are pining hopes on guys that have a track record of injury or just not being good. We've seen that movie two straight years and the ending stunk both times.

I think they need at minimum two dependable, top half of the rotation starters (ie Gilbert and Montgomery in my scenario) and a 4th (ie Ryu). That's before addressing the line up's lack of RH pop.

Vermonter At Large · Sep 22, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
Total team pitching is 24th in ERA, 26th in WHIP post ASB. So either that stat says the Sox were incredibly unlucky with BABIP or the bullpen is largely to blame. They have given up a lot of three-run homers, which is a cluster thing that wouldn't show up in any OBA numbers.

Yeah, this stat has to be considered really, really dodgy. It may also be skewed by the ridiculously small number of innings pitched by SPs, which I believe is last in MLB.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 22, 2023

JM3 said:
If you want to spend $20m/year on Montgomery & $10m/year on Maeda/Ryu, why not just spend $30m/year on the top of the market?

Generally speaking, because I do agree that paying at the top of the FA market is a very risky proposition. This year specifically 1) there are going to be a ton of teams in on Yamamoto and I think the price gets way too out of control; 2) I don't trust Snell; 3) I do like Nola, and would be all over something like 5/$150m, but I don't think there is any way that gets it done.

Also, more specific to this Red Sox team, because I think you have three holes in the rotation that need to be filled, as well as a core RH bat, and you're not getting those pieces with Brainer Bonaci and Shane Drohan. So resources (money) are going to have to be spread around to fix a ton of pitching holes.

JM3 said:
Sale has pitched more innings this year than Ryu has in the last 2 years combined, & is 2 years younger than Ryu. Why would you have more faith in him next year than Sale? Feels like a "grass is greener" thing. Like you want to not pin your hopes on guys with a track record of injury...by bringing in a guy with a track record of injury. Maeda is also a year older than Sale, pitches 5 innings per start...& missed all of 2022 with Tommy John surgery.

I believe both Ryu is coming off TJs (and pitching decently enough factoring in said surgery) as is Maeda. It's not Sale's TJS from 2020 that bothers me (or whenever he got it), it's the rib (I think) injury coming back from that, followed by the finger; followed by the wrist, followed by the shoulder issue, followed by whatever he's going to have next year.

Though more to the point, I genuinely think of posters like yourself, @Rovin Romine and others that continue to bank on Sale to be intelligent people that have data to back up their assertions, and I think that there are probably general managers that see what you guys do and think Sale will give 28 starts next year (or whatever) and I'm hopeful that by paying $25m for him to pitch there, the Sox are able to buy someone else version of "Drew Gilbert" or "Luisangel Acuna" the way the Mets just did. Also - to be clear - you guys might be right. But I don't want to depend on him again, especially not if someone else will give up decent prospects if we pay the freight. If they won't, I'd still spend on one of Ryu or Maeda, let Crawford and Houck both be in the 'pen and have one of them ready for the inevitable Sale injury and because one way or the other he's done after 2024 in Boston.

JM3 said:
How would those moves differ from the Kluber signing?

They're not all that different from the Kluber signing. The difference is with the Kluber signing there were already only question marks in the rotation before him. Sale and Paxton are / were both in their late 30s and coming off injuries, Bello was in essence a "prospect"; as were Houck, Whitlock and Crawford. So you added one question mark to 4 question marks.

I'm hoping we add one question mark to what I hope will be: "Jon Lester" (a young cost controlled, dependable starter with a 3.65ish ERA that can go on ace like runs) , Bello, question mark; Montgomery, "Houford". (Oh, and one of the prospects you sent out for "Jon Lester" is somewhat bought back by paying for Chris Sale to pitch elsewhere for a season).

chrisfont9 · Sep 22, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Generally speaking, because I do agree that paying at the top of the FA market is a very risky proposition. This year specifically 1) there are going to be a ton of teams in on Yamamoto and I think the price gets way too out of control; 2) I don't trust Snell; 3) I do like Nola, and would be all over something like 5/$150m, but I don't think there is any way that gets it done.

The rest of your post is a good reminder of how, after Yamamoto, you are sorting through pretty familiar choices in terms of potential impact -- probably dependable guys who might go on a run for a year or three, but more likely deal with injuries, age, and performance variation.

Yamamoto is the only option on the market for a young player who could be a significant difference maker. Not that he's immune to performance or injury risks, but they would be lower than the over-30 guys. Nobody else has a value ceiling even close to his, given his age and performance level. I think the Sox can't afford NOT to pay at the top of the market. Unless they want to wait another year or two. We need a true #1 as soon as humanly possible.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Sep 22, 2023

Just wanting to add that the amount of people suddenly tossing Mayer into the "look to trade him" bucket is probably the same amount as the people who also said Bleis and Yorke were untouchable last offseason but now also think they're both expendable and probably will look to add Anthony into the "deal him..." bucket after he puts up a subpar 3 months in AAA next offseason.

I'm 100% hoping for Yamamoto and suspect that part of the Bloom dismissal may have been a reluctance to spend a massive amount on a SP (which honestly is understandable given that what seems the normal for high price FA pitchers is closer to Chris Sale). But besides that, they really need to leverage some outfield depth (Duran and Abreu likely having the most value) and IF depth (Yorke is 100% expendable and the most valuable not named Mayer) to get a return with maybe 2 years remaining that can absorb the Chris Sale money after that guy shatters the day his contract expires.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Sep 22, 2023

JM3 said:
I think you mean 2 years ago from Yorke. But yeah, the desire to unload prospects seems directly related to the health of that prospect at any given moment.

Thanks. Yes. Terribly worded even besides that goof.

Big Papi's Mango Salsa · Sep 22, 2023

Not for nothing, but I have no qualms with the idea of the Sox ponying up for something like: Yamamoto, Bello, Montgomery then going Houck, Crawford, Murphy, for the last two spots. Honestly, I'd even be fine with that as Nola at the front if the cost of Yamamoto gets too out of hand.

Generally, I'd rather trade prospects for someone young and cheap because I think with good drafting and development (which I think the Sox will have) that it's easier to replace prospects than it is to replace $35m in luxury tax spending if someone gets hurt, but that's a different argument altogether and more than one ways to skin a cat, etc.

Or, just to go back to 2006 - I'd rather trade Ramirez and Sanchez for Beckett and sign Matsuzaka then just sign Zito and Matsuzaka both.

I can't stress this enough - I don't want to give up Mayer (certainly) nor give away Bleis, Yorke or whomever. I'm saying if you look at pitchers whom would probably be considered "unavailable" I'd use them to get that pitcher if they had multiple years of term left. One year of Brandon Woodruff - no chance. 4 years of someone like Gilbert or Kirby I'd consider Mayer. 2 years of someone like Gallen and I'm more than fine giving up Bleis. Though that's mostly because we have Anthony, Rafaela and Duran already - not because Bleis stinks or is hurt. (And regarding Gilbert specifically, that I have a different opinion of the player.)

If Arizona (in some hypothetical situation) said "Gallen but it costs you Rafaela and Yorke (and we keep Bleis) I'm fine with that too.

I think this is an off season we should trade some prospect redundancy for something we don't have - a top of the rotation, young, cost controlled starting pitcher. The reason I'm trading Bleis and Yorke are because we have Anthony, Rafaela and Duran (Bleis) as well as Mayer, now Urias and Zanatello (Yorke).

If I thought we could actually get said pitcher for Abreu, Duran and Bonaci (instead of Bleis and Yorke) I'd do that every time, but that's so far away from what it would cost that I don't bother stating it.

Yeah, I'm right there with you @chrisfont9 in terms of "after Yamamoto." I like Nola a good bit, but his data have taken a huge hit this year. I think that could still be fatigue from last season and how much Philly rode him and Wheeler, but it could be something more ominous as well, and I don't discount that, so I don't think I'd be comfortable going up to what he's probably going to cost.

But to the point the formerly vaunted pitching class of 2023-24 looks a lot different with a "less than 2022" Nola, Urias likely done, Ohtani needing TJS, and Giolito putting up a 10ERA in his last 10 starts.

I just happen to think there are going to be safer and possibly more attractive options if we're willing to deal some prospects and looking in the middle class free agent starters - which I fully admit that others will disagree with and I understand why they feel as such.

chrisfont9 · Sep 22, 2023

Big Papi's Mango Salsa said:
Not for nothing, but I have no qualms with the idea of the Sox ponying up for something like: Yamamoto, Bello, Montgomery then going Houck, Crawford, Murphy, for the last two spots. Honestly, I'd even be fine with that as Nola at the front if the cost of Yamamoto gets too out of hand.

His bb/9 in Japan would be top 4 in MLB. His 6.0 k/bb would be top 3 as well. He has six strikeout pitches, five if you don't count the rare slider usage, and his 4-seam averages over 95. He's allowed 2 HR in 157 innings this year. Let's make the cost get out of hand!!

Seriously. It's just money. Drop him and one of the other perfectly solid older guy names here on top of the rest of this roster and barring the (seemingly inevitable) catastrophic luck we should in business.

jon abbey · Sep 22, 2023

chrisfont9 said:
His bb/9 in Japan would be top 4 in MLB. His 6.0 k/bb would be top 3 as well. He has six strikeout pitches, five if you don't count the rare slider usage, and his 4-seam averages over 95. He's allowed 2 HR in 157 innings this year. Let's make the cost get out of hand!!

Seriously. It's just money. Drop him and one of the other perfectly solid older guy names here on top of the rest of this roster and barring the (seemingly inevitable) catastrophic luck we should in business.

I keep meaning to start a thread to get on the record just how far people are willing to go for Yamamoto. What if Cohen or someone else offers 10/300?

Rasputin · Sep 22, 2023

Just to pull a question out of my ass.

Would you be willing to play Justin Turner at second base for a season to make room for Ohtani at DH?

chrisfont9 · Sep 22, 2023

jon abbey said:
I keep meaning to start a thread to get on the record just how far people are willing to go for Yamamoto. What if Cohen or someone else offers 10/300?

Fine with me, although north of that is approaching my own personal tolerance limit. Budget-wise, the Sox have so few commitments after next year that there is no real downside to the roster in the first, what, 6 years of that deal? Pretty speculative, but unlike the teams set to pay guys huge amounts into their 40s, the Sox have Devers long term and so far that's it. Yamamoto for 10 years would still only take him to age 36. If he is anything close to what he looks like, that's a fair deal or an easily tradeable contract for most of those 10 years. With a lot of bats in the system, they can work around this expense for at least the next 5-6 years, easy.

Put another way... what if the Sox say 10/280 and then the Mets go to 300. What is that extra $2m? If you think there are other ways to acquire an ace (without trading all your prospects), then the money matters. But if there's only one ace-level guy out there, you aren't comparing this cost to the cost of a different guy. You're comparing it to the cost of finishing around .500 indefinitely, until you can find another ace.

Red(s)HawksFan · Sep 22, 2023

JM3 said:
Will Middlebrooks on Shohei:

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1705330374396576144

I have my doubts that Will Middlebrooks has any particular inside line here. That said, every front office in baseball should be trying to find a way to get Ohtani this winter so what he's saying isn't particularly meaningful. Every front office in baseball should be exploring how to get every top available player. Doesn't mean it's achievable for most. Gotta shoot your shot though. That's just due diligence.

simplicio · Sep 22, 2023

JM3 said:
Right now they have Bello...

...then a bucket of...

Sale
Houck
Crawford
Whitlock
Pivetta
Murphy

Can they just pick 4 guys from that bucket and have them share starts? 4 innings each every 5 days. I'm tired of them all losing games for us in the 5th.

RobertsSteal · Sep 22, 2023

Is there any reasonable way to find out how many games this year were lost in the 5th inning?
I know it’s actually a stupid question because each event affects the next. So just changing that one inning’s outcomes isn’t determinate of a different outcome.
BUT… how many times did we fall behind for good in the 5th? Could be an interesting number for fun.

jbupstate · Sep 23, 2023

JM3 said:
So the RedSoxPayroll guy did a mock off season...

View: https://twitter.com/redsoxpayroll/status/1705385491632357800

1) Yamamoto - 8/$208m
2) Nola - 5/$112.5m
3) Cease for Yorke, Houck, Blaze & Bonaci
4) Merrifield - 2/$28m
5) Duvall - 1/$10m
6) Moore - 2/$14m
7) Gomes - 1/$7m

Total Payroll: $258m

Merrifield? Why? To block better players? Merrifield stinks.

What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?

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