According to BBRef, it looks like the Cubs did extend Hoerner to a 3/$35M deal from 2024 thru 2026. That's a fairly cheap deal for what will be his prime years, so safe to say he's off the table.
What does Red Sox starting pitching look like in 2024?
- Thread starter JM3
- Start date
Another occasion to wonder how things would have gone had we just signed Ha-Seong Kim to begin with. Did the Padres simply outbid? Was he always going to the West Coast? Anyway, it might have really changed a few storylines over the last few years.
Anyway, at this point I don't know how we improve on Urias, at least until Yorke is ready. The Padres will likely ask for a return commensurate with one of the Top 25 players in the game, which is what Kim has been the last two years. Edman doesn't seem like an especially safer bet. His 2022 value was mostly tied up in dWAR, which for whatever reason has regressed to roughly average this year. Donovan's bat is nifty but he doesn't seem that handy with the glove. I still think it's possible the Mets reboot on McNeil, but we don't need to give up prospects to spend 3/$40 on an erratic and possibly malcontented 32-year-old when we've got the much younger Urias in house, and Yorke possibly ready next summer.
I'd prefer the Sox try to get a proven all-star quality player for RF. My guess is Rafaela's best use will be as a super utility player, getting tons of playing time, with a Tony Phillips kind of ceiling.
EDIT: Though must say I hadn't looked at his stats in a bit. Obviously, he's on a crazy tear in Worcester. Wow.
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The only somewhat available all-star level right fielder I can think of is Juan Soto. Problem with Soto is he’s not a very good outfielder and would be downright dangerous in Fenway. I would love him in a Sox uniform but it would probably be in left and DH.
I can’t think of any available right fielders that would be available. But I’ll throw this out…. How long after Ohtani leaves before Trout asks for a trade? What kind of package would Trout cost? Could he play RF in Fenway? It’s fun to dream.
"It seems to me the Red Sox are 2-3 blue chip players from having a truly contending team "
One big power bat and 2 starters. What makes that more difficult is Turner will opt out.
One big power bat and 2 starters. What makes that more difficult is Turner will opt out.
Already have Devers, Yoshida and Casas as LH guys to roll through DH. Problem is you need a little more RH pop in the lineup. Story will provide some. But Turner isn’t just a DH, he plays a capable corner infield. Dalbec is still on the team and playing a couple times a week in RF.
The guy who's been maybe the best non-Ohtani DH in baseball this year? Probably not that easy or 28 other teams would have done it too.
Turner's having a great year, no doubt. His OPS+ is 119, putting him at aprox. #50 in baseball, tied with Casas. But I'm sure you can find several DHs slotted between Turner and Ohtani if you looked.
Turner was great for corner IF insurance that wasn't 1B only insurance for Casas' first year. If he duplicates his 2023, he'd certainly have a role on the 2024 club. But I don't think finding a dedicated DH is crucial part of the off-season puzzle if he opts out.
The only primary DHs between Turner and Ohtani by WRC+ are Belt, JD and Rooker, and he's been slightly more valuable by FWAR than any of them.
The point is his type of production isn't quite so simple to replace.
But Turner also plays the field. So (mostly) dedicated DH's are simple - just look at OPS+. It's what they do with the bat alone.
In terms of what a DH might also bring to the table, Tuner is a RHH. He's a decent backup at 1B and 3B.
The questions are, can we find a 119 OPS+ DH? (I think we can.)
Is Turner a good bet to be that guy at age 39? (Maybe - he's been consistent but age comes for everyone.)
Or do we drift so much in the club composition that a LHH DH is fine? (RHH probably preferred.)
Lastly, do we need a DH that can really only back up 1B and 3B? (Casas and Raffy are both LHH, so if you're bearish on Casas's abilities to hit lefties, 1B would be a plus. Turner has hardly played 3B this year.)
Of course it's less simple than finding a 120 wRC+ bat and plugging him into the DH slot, though. Many players with bats that good play other positions, or believe they do, and teams would offer them (or their teams) more to play those positions.
There are 75 hitters whose combined 2022-23 seasons cleared 120 wRC+ or above. To shorthand who among those might reasonably be considered a DH, let's look at the 37 of those had 0 (full-time DH) or negative defensive value (per Fangraphs). Five of them already play for us. Here they are, listed in descending order by hitting prowess (wRC+):
Ohtani, Trout, Altuve, Goldschmidt, Yandy Diaz, Soto, Acuña Jr., Alonso, Nathaniel Lowe, Arraez, Devers, Olson, Carpenter, Riley, Pederson, Bichette, Harper, Will Smith, Noda, Yoshida, Nimmo, Jiménez, Refsnyder, Arozarena, Guerrero Jr., Donovan, Willson Contreras, Jansen, J.D. Martinez, Turner, Henderson, Pasquantino, Hoskins, Casas, Santander, Slater, Harold Ramirez
That's an exclusive group. If you further narrow it to right-handed batters, which seems preferable given our lineup, there are 20 names (excluding Refsnyder, and including the switch-hitting Santander).
But how many of those guys are actually available? Very, very few. We can fantasize about Trout, Goldschmidt or Alonso, but in the remote chance we'd acquire them, it would constitute such a massive roster makeover so as to defeat the exercise of merely replacing Justin Turner.
There are exactly two names on that list I could see the Sox acquiring to replace Turner next year: Eloy Jiménez and Anthony Santander. Eloy has one guaranteed year and two team options on his contract at reasonable salaries, and though he's only 26, he probably is a permanent DH at this point. It's quite possible the White Sox trade him in their rebuild, but I wouldn't bank on it, and it'd likely be costly. Santander has come up among trade targets before, but the O's are contenders now and don't need to move him, and besides, DRS and OAA have him as at least a roughly average RF (though a negative LF).
Of course, we could just plug Yoshida in at DH. Personally I'd like to give him at least another year in left field — he may improve, and anyone else would be equally punished by the Monster in the eyes of the metrics. And of course, this exercise just looks at recent history. It's isn't a comprehensive list of players who will put up a 120 wRC+ in 2024.
It may be easier just to guarantee Turner another $15M or so.
There are 75 hitters whose combined 2022-23 seasons cleared 120 wRC+ or above. To shorthand who among those might reasonably be considered a DH, let's look at the 37 of those had 0 (full-time DH) or negative defensive value (per Fangraphs). Five of them already play for us. Here they are, listed in descending order by hitting prowess (wRC+):
Ohtani, Trout, Altuve, Goldschmidt, Yandy Diaz, Soto, Acuña Jr., Alonso, Nathaniel Lowe, Arraez, Devers, Olson, Carpenter, Riley, Pederson, Bichette, Harper, Will Smith, Noda, Yoshida, Nimmo, Jiménez, Refsnyder, Arozarena, Guerrero Jr., Donovan, Willson Contreras, Jansen, J.D. Martinez, Turner, Henderson, Pasquantino, Hoskins, Casas, Santander, Slater, Harold Ramirez
That's an exclusive group. If you further narrow it to right-handed batters, which seems preferable given our lineup, there are 20 names (excluding Refsnyder, and including the switch-hitting Santander).
But how many of those guys are actually available? Very, very few. We can fantasize about Trout, Goldschmidt or Alonso, but in the remote chance we'd acquire them, it would constitute such a massive roster makeover so as to defeat the exercise of merely replacing Justin Turner.
There are exactly two names on that list I could see the Sox acquiring to replace Turner next year: Eloy Jiménez and Anthony Santander. Eloy has one guaranteed year and two team options on his contract at reasonable salaries, and though he's only 26, he probably is a permanent DH at this point. It's quite possible the White Sox trade him in their rebuild, but I wouldn't bank on it, and it'd likely be costly. Santander has come up among trade targets before, but the O's are contenders now and don't need to move him, and besides, DRS and OAA have him as at least a roughly average RF (though a negative LF).
Of course, we could just plug Yoshida in at DH. Personally I'd like to give him at least another year in left field — he may improve, and anyone else would be equally punished by the Monster in the eyes of the metrics. And of course, this exercise just looks at recent history. It's isn't a comprehensive list of players who will put up a 120 wRC+ in 2024.
It may be easier just to guarantee Turner another $15M or so.
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Turner is a pretty good fit because really you probably want both Devers and Casas DHing at least once a week. Hopefully Casas improves, it seems unlikely Devers will ever progress beyond being bad at this point.
Seems like the Sox are best served trying to work out a two year deal with Turner. If he can get $6.7M just for opting out, what does it take to keep him around? Something like 2/28?
Dare I ask if Dalbec may be in Bloom’s plans?
RHH, can back up 1B, 3B and possibly LF and emergency MI.
Are his struggles against…. Well basically any ML pitching over?
RHH, can back up 1B, 3B and possibly LF and emergency MI.
Are his struggles against…. Well basically any ML pitching over?
Do we want/need Turner for 2 additional years in his age 39 & 40 seasons. I love that he can still field three infield positions, but that might be a big ask for another 2 years and I'm not sure that we want his as a full time DH in '25 when we might have a few other candidates in house.
There is a borderline all star named Verdugo who might be interesting
EDIT--while I say this somewhat tongue in cheek, I do think that Verdugo will stay around next season, unless the Sox really are ready to hand the job to Rafaela.
Second EDIT--and I see that the starting pitching thread has taken quite a detour
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Much of that would depend on how the next 50 games play out, but I'm not interested in 2 years.
You work? Wow, I've forgotten what that's like. gomen ne (= sorry) If you do get the chance to visit here (it seems like the rest of the planet is on holiday here now) maybe we can grab a ball game and you can experience first hand how different things are here.
I'm still a feet/inches/mph guy but the planet has moved in a different direction....and I have a rough idea.....but it's still very rough. What's easy for me to remember is 160 = 100mph
Not unless we have DH injuries like we’ve had middle infielder injuries. Assuming CB wants to keep his job in Boston
I could see Dalbec fitting on this team. Career 853 OPS vs LHPers. If it allows them to spend big on SP(s) I could live with that. They could easily run back the same lineup next year, without Turner, and with Rafaela, and still be good. CR breaks in on short side of platoon, but getting maybe 1/3 of Abs vs RHPers. Duran moves to LF or the bench vs lefties. The team fits together pretty good.
That said, I would support a serious effort to bring Jorge Soler in if we are moving on from Turner.
On the SP front, I am looking at Nola.
That said, I would support a serious effort to bring Jorge Soler in if we are moving on from Turner.
On the SP front, I am looking at Nola.
I would love to take you up on that! Thank you for the kind offer. Same holds true for me if you're ever in Austin (Sandy Leon Trotsky is here too but we can never agree on the best restaurants).
The 7m is a sunk cost, it's already gone (absent him suffering a major injury in the last 2 months). If they think he's a good signing at 1-15 then the fact that they actually have to pay him 22m is irrelevant, because if they didn't sign him for 1-15 and instead signed an equal different player for 1-15 they're still out the 22m.
I am curious what teams think about Eduardo Rodriguez. He's a 30 year-old lefty (he'll be 31 when next season starts) who's having his best-ever season for a non-contender just in time for him to be able to opt out. He seems to have recovered from his myocarditis and his mental health issues, but the circumstances around him nixing the trade to LA are a little cloudy (it sounds like he indicated an interest in accepting the trade, but then changed his mind when the Dodgers wouldn't make it worth his while financially).
If he opts out, he'll be looking for a raise from the 3/$49m the Tigers still owe him.
Carlos Rodon is similar to Rodriguez in terms of age and level of success (Rodon's best year is better than Rodridguez's best) and got 6/$162 from the Yankees -- is a team going to be willing to pay that much for E-Rod?
I'd be in favor of bringing him back to Boston, but I wouldn't go over 5/$125 and would be nervous going over 5/$100.
If he opts out, he'll be looking for a raise from the 3/$49m the Tigers still owe him.
Carlos Rodon is similar to Rodriguez in terms of age and level of success (Rodon's best year is better than Rodridguez's best) and got 6/$162 from the Yankees -- is a team going to be willing to pay that much for E-Rod?
I'd be in favor of bringing him back to Boston, but I wouldn't go over 5/$125 and would be nervous going over 5/$100.
I wouldn't mind having him back, but Yamamoto is priority #1 (I'm sure plenty of other teams feel the same though). For me the big question is whether last winter's prices are the new norm or just a one time thing led by TEX/NYM/SD that they'll back off after this season. $20m AAV feels like the max I'd ever want to pay for him, and 5 years feels long.
I haven't seen this. Reports say E-Rod nixed it because his "family feels happy in Detroit," and some kind of family/marital stuff led to his prolonged departure last year. He seems like less of a lock to opt out now than I thought he'd be. I can only speculate how his family feels/felt about Boston or whether his preference extends to East Coast/Midwest teams or Detroit specifically.
If he does opt out, his geographic need thins the market and suggests he'll get nowhere near Rodón's contract (which looks like a disaster anyway). Seems like a tricky situation. I'd be happy to have him back but it seems like a personal matter whether Boston's a favorable or unfavorable location.
That Yahoo article covers what Rodriguez said after the deadline. Ken Rosenthal has additional reporting:
Probably the other question is whether Boston is off his list. He signed with the Tigers almost instantly, which gave his departure a "running for the exits" feel. So there may be an impediment there to a reunion. I liked him on the mound but he was a little off kilter sometimes. When he mocked Correa tapping his "watch", I dunno if that woke up the Astros but nothing good happened from there.
I also wonder if Boston would kick in a little more to make it worth his time, assuming we were on the list? Depending upon the driver for rejecting the trade, if its mental health related he may be more open in the off season when there is more time to contemplate (pure speculation based on various comments, not a doctor).
Thanks for starting this thread @JM3.
I really hope that the Red Sox go out and acquire two actual starting pitchers. My personal belief is that they need to acquire two top half of the rotation starters or at minimum a top half of the rotation starter and then someone that profiles as a 3/4 type to provide stability to the rotation, but ideally the former.
They'll have the money to go out and sign two top tier FAs, but I just don't see them doing that, but that would be my preference with the strength of the FA class. So I think the next choice would be to sign one top tier FA and trade for another top half of the rotation starter. I've mentioned several times guys that I'd like and players I'd be looking at moving, but won't go further down that road until we see what is even speculated as being available in the off-season. As such, we're left with one top tier FA and one mid tier FA being the combination of what I think makes the most sense and is at least feasible.
I'll echo the thoughts of many others that I'd like them to target Yamamoto as well, and then someone from the Montgomery, Flaherty, Lynn, Stroman, Gray types. If we're limiting ourselves to talking about free agent options (or at least as of now I'm limiting myself to talking about FA options) I'd like to see the rotation next year look like:
Yamamoto, Bello, JMontgomery, Crawford, Houck.
Stroman would be my second choice for the #3 role. Both Montgomery and Stroman have shown an ability to handle the rigors of the AL East (97 starts with a 3.94 ERA for Montgomery; 129 with a 3.76 for Stroman). That would give the team the ability to see if Houck can continue refining his arsenal enough to be a big league starter while providing innings in case he cannot.
I really hope that the Red Sox go out and acquire two actual starting pitchers. My personal belief is that they need to acquire two top half of the rotation starters or at minimum a top half of the rotation starter and then someone that profiles as a 3/4 type to provide stability to the rotation, but ideally the former.
They'll have the money to go out and sign two top tier FAs, but I just don't see them doing that, but that would be my preference with the strength of the FA class. So I think the next choice would be to sign one top tier FA and trade for another top half of the rotation starter. I've mentioned several times guys that I'd like and players I'd be looking at moving, but won't go further down that road until we see what is even speculated as being available in the off-season. As such, we're left with one top tier FA and one mid tier FA being the combination of what I think makes the most sense and is at least feasible.
I'll echo the thoughts of many others that I'd like them to target Yamamoto as well, and then someone from the Montgomery, Flaherty, Lynn, Stroman, Gray types. If we're limiting ourselves to talking about free agent options (or at least as of now I'm limiting myself to talking about FA options) I'd like to see the rotation next year look like:
Yamamoto, Bello, JMontgomery, Crawford, Houck.
Stroman would be my second choice for the #3 role. Both Montgomery and Stroman have shown an ability to handle the rigors of the AL East (97 starts with a 3.94 ERA for Montgomery; 129 with a 3.76 for Stroman). That would give the team the ability to see if Houck can continue refining his arsenal enough to be a big league starter while providing innings in case he cannot.
This is definitely a good year to spend some money on a Free Agent SP as there's shockingly a bit of glut of them. A lot of teams will make QO's to them so that loss of a pick needs to be figured into the overall cost.
Yamamoto is going to cost a lot, but most of it will be Henry's direct money and not The Red Sox' money (salary implications) so there's that additional point to go high for him.
I'd still kick the tires on Rodriguez.... maybe he's open to a return to Boston and has only one year remaining so could be a better short term option than the lesser FA types that may opt for a one year deal. Additionally shouldn't hurt too much in a trade and Detroit is one of the places where Dalbec actually could get a chance. Not saying just Dalbec in a trade, but would something like Murphy, Dalbec and a lower mL with some upside make that happen?
I'm not going to lie, Snell would not be high on my list of targets.
We already have one undependable SP not only taking up a good chunk of change but even more importantly, being factored into the rotation plans even though it's basically a lock he's going to start less than 20 games per season, we don't need another that already has a track record of missing a lot of time, especially for his age 31-36 seasons or whatever the number would be for Snell.
Even in his "healthy" years Snell misses around a month of starts, and in his entire career has eclipsed 130ip exactly once (and that was back in 2018 in his age 25 season) . He is a good pitcher, but not one I'd want to invest big dollars in, especially for his age 30+ seasons.
We already have one undependable SP not only taking up a good chunk of change but even more importantly, being factored into the rotation plans even though it's basically a lock he's going to start less than 20 games per season, we don't need another that already has a track record of missing a lot of time, especially for his age 31-36 seasons or whatever the number would be for Snell.
Even in his "healthy" years Snell misses around a month of starts, and in his entire career has eclipsed 130ip exactly once (and that was back in 2018 in his age 25 season) . He is a good pitcher, but not one I'd want to invest big dollars in, especially for his age 30+ seasons.
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Agreed. Especially a guy who will only surpass 130 innings for the 2nd time in his career. That 2.61 ERA this year is a total mirage. Someone will pay for it, but I don’t think it will be the Sox.
I don't disagree btw, I just thought it was an interesting discussion point.
The only way I could really see it is if the market stays low & they think they see something that they could legitimately fix in his mechanics to make the results this season the expectation (by significantly lowering the walks probably).
He's also made at least 23 starts every non-truncated season since 2017. Not a ton of innings, but pretty solid contributions.
Would expect him to sign somewhere else for tons of money & be told the Red Sox were in on him, though.
The only way I could really see it is if the market stays low & they think they see something that they could legitimately fix in his mechanics to make the results this season the expectation (by significantly lowering the walks probably).
He's also made at least 23 starts every non-truncated season since 2017. Not a ton of innings, but pretty solid contributions.
Would expect him to sign somewhere else for tons of money & be told the Red Sox were in on him, though.
I'd expect them to go after Aaron Nola because of his durability (has made 30+ starts every year since 2017...except 2020 when he made all 12 starts in the shortened season) and he may be a slight discount because of his inflated ERA this year (4.49 versus 3.86 xERA and 3.77 xFIP).
We'll see how crazy the market is, but with s decent number of starters going to FA this offseason, it might be a buyers market on some of these guys.
We'll see how crazy the market is, but with s decent number of starters going to FA this offseason, it might be a buyers market on some of these guys.
I'm pretty sure I've watched every Blake Snell start this year. The game threads would be highly entertaining if the Sox signed him. He'll walk 3 in a row to load the bases and then strikeout the next 3. His ability to pitch out of jams is pretty impressive, but he's gotten lucky this year with the walks not coming back to bite him. His "stuff" is great, he just struggles to control it. He'll pretty consistently give you 5 IP and have to check out because he's at 100+ pitches.
I like Blake Snell, he's a good dude and he can pitch, but for the money I'd probably just want the Sox to bring Paxton back on a 2-3 yr deal.
I like Blake Snell, he's a good dude and he can pitch, but for the money I'd probably just want the Sox to bring Paxton back on a 2-3 yr deal.
Nola is interesting because he drastically underperformed his xFIP most seasons. His strikeout rate is way down (worst of his career), & despite his best BABIP since 2018, he still has a 4.49 ERA.
He performs better with xFIP because he's allowed a ton of homers. That could be in part because he doesn't throw that hard (19th percentile), & because he hangs a fair amount of curveballs which isn't surprising as he throws them 32.6% of the time this year, up from 26% last year. 10 of his 26 homers allowed have been on the curveball (38.5%). His groundball rate is also at a career low.
Idk... I'm just not into the profile. Especially at Fenway.
Yeah these are fair critiques. I just like the durability and the lack of walks. Kind of reminds me of a Rick Porcello with a better K rate....he had a gopher ball issue too. But to be fair on your argument, durability becomes a bigger question mark after age 30. Red Sox signed Porcello for his age 26-30 seasons whereas Nola will be 30 to start next season.
Rosenthal just wrote up why the Mets will be in on Yamamoto at the Athletic. Is he just spitballing on a Friday or does he know something of their plans? Either way, the Sox will have to pay big and convince Yamamoto that they will be more relevant than the Mets. Which isn't that hard I guess.