What does Red Sox relief pitching look like in 2024?

jon abbey · Oct 14, 2023

Not sure why we are hypothesizing, no one subscribes to The Athletic? From July:

"The day after the Dodgers came calling, Ryan Brasier tried something new. The 35-year-old’s struggles had reached a breaking point in Boston and left him looking for a job. Los Angeles was curious about his willingness to try out a few new things. That involved tweaking the shape of and tilt on his slider, refining the location on his four-seam fastball and even fiddling with a two-seam fastball. Also, the Dodgers asked, could Brasier throw a cutter?

The next day, Brasier went out and tried for the first time. “It was actually (coming out) like sinkers,” Brasier said of the pitch’s profile. Working out at the Dodgers’ facility in Arizona a few days later, director of minor league pitching Rob Hill had him try out grips before they settled on something that worked, quelling some of Brasier’s woes against lefties and giving a different look to play off his slider. Add him to the cutter crew."

https://theathletic.com/4702169/2023/07/19/dodger-details-new-pitches-deadline-needs/

Max Power · Oct 14, 2023

jon abbey said:
Not sure why we are hypothesizing, no one subscribes to The Athletic? From July:

"The day after the Dodgers came calling, Ryan Brasier tried something new. The 35-year-old’s struggles had reached a breaking point in Boston and left him looking for a job. Los Angeles was curious about his willingness to try out a few new things. That involved tweaking the shape of and tilt on his slider, refining the location on his four-seam fastball and even fiddling with a two-seam fastball. Also, the Dodgers asked, could Brasier throw a cutter?

The next day, Brasier went out and tried for the first time. “It was actually (coming out) like sinkers,” Brasier said of the pitch’s profile. Working out at the Dodgers’ facility in Arizona a few days later, director of minor league pitching Rob Hill had him try out grips before they settled on something that worked, quelling some of Brasier’s woes against lefties and giving a different look to play off his slider. Add him to the cutter crew."

https://theathletic.com/4702169/2023/07/19/dodger-details-new-pitches-deadline-needs/

We all know he was not willing to adjust the tilt on anything in Boston.

In retrospect it makes sense that the Red Sox kept holding onto him the last couple of years. He quickly became useful pitcher again for the Dodgers, which shows that there was something in there that the team could recognize even if they couldn't extract it themselves.

chawson · Oct 14, 2023

Max Power said:
We all know he was not willing to adjust the tilt on anything in Boston.

In retrospect it makes sense that the Red Sox kept holding onto him the last couple of years. He quickly became useful pitcher again for the Dodgers, which shows that there was something in there that the team could recognize even if they couldn't extract it themselves.

Same with Ort, it’s really hard to give up on a guy with a 96+ mph fastball, especially one with plus command, in Brasier’s case. It’s not the only factor, but that kind of velocity seems requisite to being a successful reliever these days.

Sin Duda · Oct 15, 2023

The other aspect of being out of a job, stated by Brasier himself, is that he finally got some rest. But the Jon Abbey quoted article, above, wins the day. So I'd say pitching coach and overall pitching coaching is who I'd be looking at, but they're all gone.

Petagine in a Bottle · Oct 21, 2023

Ha! 1 2/3 scoreless in the WS. Career 4.75.

Tokyo Sox · Nov 3, 2023

JM3 said:
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1713372350345773553

I think this is maybe who @Sandy Leon Trotsky was thinking of in the SP thread that doesn't need to be posted. Matsui is a full international FA.

TomRicardo · Nov 3, 2023

Tokyo Sox said:
I think this is maybe who @Sandy Leon Trotsky was thinking of in the SP thread that doesn't need to be posted. Matsui is a full international FA.

Looking at the bullpen, I don't see a really big move outside of set up / elite LHRP.

You are starting with:

Jansen
Martin
Bernardino
Winckowski
Pivetta
Whitlock

with Mata (no more options), Joely Rodriquez, Murphy, Weiss, and other "arms" working for back end positions.

There are such massive holes in the rotation putting a ton of money and effort into the bullpen past a high end set up/closer lefty so Matsui or if you are going to spend Hader.

TomRicardo · Nov 3, 2023

JM3 said:
Joely has a team option they are very unlikely to exercise. But agree with the rest. You also add Houck to the mix if you add enough starting.

I am really concerned on having enough starting. That is going to be a very heavy lift. Bloom left the rotation decimated,.

Edit - You pretty much need to leave Whitlock and Pivetta roster spots because of how bad the starting situation is. The fact you have are going into the season with 5 swing men (Houck, Whitlock, Pivetta, Mata, and Crawford) because you only have 1 and half starters (Bello and Sale) is insane.

simplicio · Nov 4, 2023

So who's on our LHRP wishlist now? Bernardino has been good but he can't be our only guy.

PedroisGod · Nov 5, 2023

Stephenson was unbelievable after his trade to the Rays. I don't know what he'll cost or whether he can carry it over to a new team, but he's always had good stuff and I liked what I saw out of him.

Sin Duda · Nov 6, 2023

JM3 said:
Here's Hand's list with the lefties marked...
13. Will Smith - L
...
Will Smith has won 3 straight World Series so he seems good at winning.

And acting. I loved him in "I am Legend".

jwbasham84 · Nov 29, 2023

What do you think we could get for him? I don't really feel like he's much of a value on his current deal. Only 1 year commitment from the other team, but do you think he'd bring back anything of substance? Would we pay down his salary to get a better return?

simplicio · Nov 29, 2023

Agree, I'd love a Kenley trade if we can line in a couple dependable starters.

moondog80 · Nov 29, 2023

JM3 said:
I look at a Kenley trade as a good way to free up net payroll. Go be the highest bidder on Yamamoto & Dr. Montgomery's husband & have high leverage arms in your pen that include Whitlock, Houck, Martin + Winck, Pivetta, Schreiber, etc.

In terms of a return, either could use him directly as part of a trade for a right handed bat or SP, or just trade him for prospects to replenish part of what you're giving up to get that bat or pitcher.

I'd expect Kenley to have more or less neutral value; some teams would want the Sox to pay some of his $, but there would be at least one that would send back a lottery ticket or two and take on his deal.

Ronnie_Dobbs · Nov 29, 2023

Don't we have enough already under the CBT to get two top line pitchers? Yamamoto at the top end would be getting 25M per. If we trade away Verdugo that still leaves us 37M to spend on another pitcher? We could just roll with our best defensive 2B and take the hit on lack of offense and we have the rest of the roster basically set. Kenley was fine last year when we used him appropriately I feel

chawson · Nov 29, 2023

simplicio said:
Agree, I'd love a Kenley trade if we can line in a couple dependable starters.

I really like the guy but it does make some sense. If everything goes according to (some people’s) plan and we acquire 2+ starters from outside the org, then we’re probably looking at Martin, Schreiber, Whitlock, Houck, Winckowski and Campbell as righties in the bullpen, with potentially Mata, Robertson and Kelly who could conceivably step forward. Plus whatever happens with Crawford and Pivetta. I don’t mind that crew.

sezwho · Nov 29, 2023

chawson said:
I really like the guy but it does make some sense. If everything goes according to (some people’s) plan and we acquire 2+ starters from outside the org, then we’re probably looking at Martin, Schreiber, Whitlock, Houck, Winckowski and Campbell as righties in the bullpen, with potentially Mata, Robertson and Kelly who could conceivably step forward. Plus whatever happens with Crawford and Pivetta. I don’t mind that crew.

Yes, I see the logic too but a near 90% save rate (ok 87.9) was a really nice asset last year even if it was a bridge to nowhere. I'd need to be convinced his money is truly blocking something special, and if I've absorbed properly from the cap-literati here that seems unlikely particularly given there's only one year left on Jansen's deal to worry about.

If I really want to be optimistic he's also someone I'd love to have around in a short series to put a fire out in any inning.

nvalvo · Nov 29, 2023

I get what you’re thinking, but I wouldn’t do it unless we’re pushing one of the higher CBT tiers.

I tend to take the view that a big part of the benefit of having an established closer is allowing the manager to deploy the other pitchers optimally. So if Kenley and Martin in classic La Russan closer and set up roles allow Cora and Bailey to be aggressive with using guys like Houck and Whitlock and Winckowski in multi-inning roles, I think that’s a great situation. I think we want 100 IP from each of those guys.

Cassvt2023 · Nov 30, 2023

If you can free up some cash and/or get a flier of a prospect or two for a 36 yr old closer due to make $16 million on a team that isn't just a piece or two away from WS contenders, i think that's a no brainer. Leave Martin, Schreiber, and Bernardino in their set-up roles, keep Winchowski as a multi inning guy along with maybe Houck and Crawford or Pivetta, with the other being at back end of rotation. Your depth then becomes Murphy, Mata, Walter, Robertson, Campbell...and your closer is...... Garrett Whitlock.

simplicio · Nov 30, 2023

I'd like to find out if Whitlock can still pitch effectively before naming him closer. He was pretty bad for most of this season.

Cassvt2023 · Nov 30, 2023

simplicio said:
I'd like to find out if Whitlock can still pitch effectively before naming him closer. He was pretty bad for most of this season.

The stuff is there when he's healthy. He spent last season being bounced around from rotation to bullpen. If he had a set role, i believe he'd excel at closing.

Petagine in a Bottle · Nov 30, 2023

Is Whitlock still going to be restricted in terms of usage? If the team is unwilling to let him pitch back to back days and if he needs a day off for each inning pitched, than I’m not sure he can be a closer.

Red(s)HawksFan · Nov 30, 2023

Cassvt2023 said:
The stuff is there when he's healthy. He spent last season being bounced around from rotation to bullpen. If he had a set role, i believe he'd excel at closing.

Bouncing implies moving back and forth repeatedly between the rotation and the pen. He started the season in the rotation, got hurt, returned to the rotation, got hurt again, returned exclusively in the pen. I wouldn't call that bouncing, other than on and off the IL. I think his health was his downfall, not his role.

Ronnie_Dobbs · Nov 30, 2023

If we are talking about using existing resources in a closer role and dealing Kenley I'd rank them
1: Martin
2: Houck
3: Bernardino

Ronnie_Dobbs · Nov 30, 2023

Good point

Cassvt2023 · Nov 30, 2023

i agree that injuries have been a concern. However, in the 3 seasons he's pitched for the Sox he's thrown 223 Innings, with 235 K's and 45 BB's. Bailey has stated he wants guys that throw strikes. You never want a closer with shaky command who walks guys. This guy throws strikes and doesn't walk guys. I'd consider Houck in the roll as well, but not Bernadino. The point is if you could get something of value for Jansen and/or free up some payroll, we have cost controlledoptions to close in -house.

Sandy Leon Trotsky · Nov 30, 2023

I’m all for dealing Jansen. I like him but felt stressed as hell when he took the mound in a save.
Any of Houck, Martin or Whitlock should be auditioning as a closer.
I thought the “Whitlock Rule” was that he was going to be used multiple innings so would need more rest, not for if he was a more standard 1inning closer type.
That said, I do like him in that middle multiple inning role, but there’s also Murphy, Walters, hopefully Pivetta (meaning Sale made it to opening day without falling off a train) and Winchowski as all 2-3 inning types.
Leverage all those assets into a piece where the Sox are lacking

nvalvo · Nov 30, 2023

I would be interested to see a bullpen where we have something like two one-inning relievers (CL, RHSU and LHSU), two less-than-one-inning relievers, and then *everybody else* is used to go once through the opposing lineup. Something like this, if everyone's healthy:

La Russan roles for 8/9 while leading: reliable veterans who can get lefties and righties out.
Jansen RH CL | 50 IP
Martin RH SU | 50 IP

Firemen — middle-innings situational and mid-inning emergencies: these guys are picked for this role because they have huge platoon splits, the kinds of pitchers who would be ROOGIES and LOOGIES if there still were such a thing. You want one of each handedness.
Schreiber RH | 50 IP
Bernardino LH | 50 IP

New-look long relief MIRPs.
Houck RH (~9 batters ~1x/series) | 100 IP
Winckowski RH (~9 batters ~1x/series) | 100 IP
Whitlock RH (~9 batters ~1x/series) | 100 IP
Pivetta RH (~9 batters ~1x/series) | 100 IP

That's 600 IP. The average major league team last season needed 603 IP from their bullpen (max, SF: 705; min: PHI, 543; Boston: 655 IP), although the precise number depends on factors like your record (teams that win more will pitch the 9th inning on the road more often), extra innings, use of openers, and of course the starters' workload. So the workloads per role are in the ballpark of what we would need for a season.

Depth for the long relief role:
Mata RH (~9 batters ~1x/series)
Murphy LH (~9 batters ~1x/series)
Gonzalez RH (~9 batters ~1x/series)
Drohan LH (~9 batters ~1x/series)
Gambrell RH (~9 batters ~1x/series)
Penrod LH (~9 batters ~1x/series)

Depth for the short relief role:
Guerrero RH
Hoppe RH
Walter LH
Campbell RH

The goal would be for (health permitting) each of those four long relief guys to get between 6 and 9 outs 30 to 40 times, so call it a 100 IP. You do a day off per inning pitched (or probably something a bit smarter than that), and you're more aggressive with the hook in higher-leverage outings. So you could use those guys more frequently if the starters were pitching deep more often and if we avoided many extra-inning games. So the goal would be to do something like...

Bello pitches five strong, but then gets in trouble. There's one out, two on, and the next three hitters are LRL, so Bernardino warms up quick, gets a lefty, walks a righty to load the bases, and then gets another lefty to escape the inning. Then it's the seventh, so you hand the game to Houck (or whichever long guy is rested), who either finishes the game or hands it off to Martin and Jansen, depending on lead and leverage. Or let's say Crawford is on a strict 18 batters faced regimen. That gets him through 4, and then you bring in Pivetta to start the fifth, and he faces another 9 batters, and then you hand things off to either another long guy or the SU/CL depending on where things stand with the score and such.

Do people see what I'm after here? It would have the additional advantage of keeping our potential starting depth fairly stretched out, so if/when a starter gets hurt, Pivetta or Houck is ready to pitch four innings his first time through the rotation, then five, then six..., and then we can promote somebody from the Worcester or Portland rotation and put him in the Pivetta's spot. I think we actually have the personnel, in that we have a bazillion 5th starter types.

Yo La Tengo · Dec 1, 2023

Sandy Leon Trotsky said:
I’m all for dealing Jansen. I like him but felt stressed as hell when he took the mound in a save.
Any of Houck, Martin or Whitlock should be auditioning as a closer.
I thought the “Whitlock Rule” was that he was going to be used multiple innings so would need more rest, not for if he was a more standard 1inning closer type.
That said, I do like him in that middle multiple inning role, but there’s also Murphy, Walters, hopefully Pivetta (meaning Sale made it to opening day without falling off a train) and Winchowski as all 2-3 inning types.
Leverage all those assets into a piece where the Sox are lacking

I don't understand the urge to trade Jansen. He was effective in his role, doesn't have an obvious replacement, and allows Cora and the bullpen to have set patterns of usage, which has real world value even though I/we wish it didn't. If the Sox are good, they are going to want to have an experienced closer. If they are bad, they can trade Jansen at the deadline when he would likely have a price tag that matches whatever he could be exchanged for this offseason.

KillerBs · Dec 1, 2023

I 100% see what you are after here and also agree completely.

As hard is it to admit, the expectation that most starters will go 6 innings per start is not borne out by reality, but appears to still be the operating principle for organizing pitching staffs. MLB teams appear to be asking SPs to prepare to go out and finish 6, when they know they consistently cannot do it, which leads to cobbled together strategies in middle innings. Instead I am inclined to think it is makes more sense to send many of our pitchers out with the expectation that they are going to work 4 innings per turn, with anything after that considered an unusual and fairly rare helping of gravy.

In practice, I wonder about the following as a slight alteration from what you set out directly above.

Montgomery (or YY) and Bello for 180 IPs each, 32 starts x almost 6 innings per. More or less traditional SP role.
6 more pitchers who you expect to work 4 IPs 32X per year for 128 IPs for the season: Sale, Crawford, Houck, Pivetta, Whitlock, and let's say Manaea (or Paxton). These 6 are paired in 3 groups of 2, with the expectation of getting 7 or 8 IPs a game from the pair. They are on regular turns every 5th day. Who starts and who relieves is not that important. Ideally a lefty is paired with a righty. There would be an opportunity to graduate to a traditional SP role if justified by performance.
That leaves 5 more bullpen spots to cover the remaining 300 IPs which is more or less doable I think. Jansen, Martin, Winck, Bernardino, plus 1 hopefully LHP (Hader would be nice). You may need a rubber arm 13th man out here too, at least available on shuttle from Worcester, idk.

On the days when you are piggy backing two long guys, I like your idea of using a short man between the two long pitchers to get a platoon advantage in the 5th, which may pay dividends in the 8th or 9th.

I think it could work, and also think the Red Sox have the personnel for it.

What does Red Sox relief pitching look like in 2024?

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