Ferm Sheller said:So we're rooting for Pitt to win next week and take the 3 seed, leaving Cincy and Indy at 4 and 5? Pitt beats the 6 seed at home and the winner of Indy/Cincy comes to NE to get slaughtered?
Next he'll review the play "Our American Cousin" without mention of that odd little scene.RedOctober3829 said:Trent refuses to criticize Peyton. "Let's not talk about the 4 INTs"
Pit/Cin winner is the #3 seed loser is #5. Indy is locked in at #4.Ferm Sheller said:. Actually, now that I have a better look, Indy also might have to lose next week for that scenario to work.
ShaneTrot said:What has happened to the Denver defense? They were stellar earlier this season.
The guys next to me in the bar were saying the same thing and I fail to understand how this makes any sense. It was first and 10 from the Cinci 19. How can it possibly be more likely to get the required touchdown from somewhere further back than than the 19 and requiring an onside kick? Am I missing something?Dan to Theo to Ben said:GO BAMA!
Should have kicked the FG with the 2 TO's (Would get ball back with 15-20 seconds if fail to get onsides, hope for dpi thereafter)
jercra said:The guys next to me in the bar were saying the same thing and I fail to understand how this makes any sense. It was first and 10 from the Cinci 19. How can it possibly be more likely to get the required touchdown from somewhere further back than than the 19 and requiring an onside kick? Am I missing something?
FelixMantilla said:This game is over.
Cincy doesn't have a prayer.
Peyton in the looker room after the game... " I got a lot of problems with you people!"singaporesoxfan said:Peyton should be good and ready for the Airing of the Grievances.
.ArmyBoSoxFan said:Pit/Cin winner is the #3 seed loser is #5. Indy is locked in at #4.
This only makes sense to me if you're going to have so little time left after the onside kick that there's no chance of getting in FG range. I'd rather have the ball after an onside kick with 30 seconds left only needing a field goal than have it after an onside kick with 1:20 left needing a touchdown. Has the "kick the field goal / onside / hail mary touchdown" sequence ever worked?Papelbon's Poutine said:The general idea is that you can throw a TD pass from further out than you can kick a field goal. If the last play is your chance to win, you're better off throwing a bomb from midfield than trying a 65 yd Fg. Or a Music City miracle lateral or whatever.
So you kick the FG, preserve as much time as possible and go onside kick. If they had done that there would have been ~1:20 left and all three time outs left. (You could see that was what Peyton was expecting - as he came to the line he looked to the sideline and made a spiking motion, presumably that they would go this route and preserve their timeouts; you also heard Gruden say it too on the broadcast). Even if they had scored on the play he threw the pick, they would have had ~1:10-1:15 and two timeouts. Much less time left if it took a couple tries.
They still need another score either way, but less time and less timeouts, plus the scoring play to win needs to be significantly closer if its a FG.
Edit: and yes, there's always the hope for DPI or another defensive penalty that gives you a second shot at a last play. Simplified idea is if you need two scores, you take one as soon as you can get it with reasonable certainty.
Gorton Fisherman said:Andy Dalton looks like a character from one of those old stop motion Christmas specials.
jercra said:I don't know anything about the guys at the linked site but they performed 30k simulations to see the scoring probabilities for kicking the FG first or going for the TD.
http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/game-strategy/155-field-goal-first
In short, it's basically a wash, though slightly weighted towards kicking the FG first. The important part of their simulation though is that the offensive team has to have at least 2 timeouts because the basis of the analysis is that you have to avoid the onside kick. So you kick the FG, punt, force 3 and out (using your timeouts), then go for the TD. It's a pretty interesting read and the comments clarify a few questions about the simulator.
No, this is the first year.MentalDisabldLst said:i think that happens every year for week 17. it's part of the usual deal.