Viva Lost Vegas: McDaniels fired

[Toe Nash]

I mean, he kind of forced out the franchise QB (whatever you think of Carr), went and got his guy who seems to be totally cooked. He also got Hoyer instead of just keeping Stidham and then decided to start Hoyer when Jimmy was out with predictable results. I don't know that it's more complicated than that.

I don't think Carr was going to take them anywhere but your plan needs to be a little better than that.

 

[lexrageorge]

Who's tree is Belichick part of then?

This is a dumb discussion regardless and seems to be in the recent vein of this board discrediting Belichick for such things as not winning the Super Bowl good enough.

99% of the discussion around coaching "trees" is absurd. Each coach is their own individual, and brings their own unique style, no matter who they may have served as assistant. Belichick was a Parcells assistant, but is a very different coach than Parcells in many ways.

And it's also totally arbitrary. McDaniels and Patricia are part of Belichick's "tree", but O'Brien and Saban aren't?

Finally, no head coach would be successful with a broken down Garropollo at QB, who as noted is having a significantly worse season than even Mac Jones. JimmyG is 32 and is probably seeing his final year as a starter in the NFL; wouldn't be surprised if he retires in the offseason. It was the Raiders GM and (likely) owner that decided to ditch Derek Carr; neither has any connection to Belichick last I checked.

 

[rodderick]

This is not a post at you, just more a general confusion about why these guys are committed to a system that is so difficult to learn for many players in the league. BB always talks about putting players in the best position to succeed and focusing on what they can do rather than what they can't, yet for years (decades?) we've heard about Erhardt-Perkins being a "step above" other systems in terms of complexity. As if it somehow gives BB, the Patriots, McDaniels, etc. a pass for the fact the offense can often suck.

It just seems like a silly choice to make, particularly when some of the best athletes are coming out of colleges that simplify offense as much as possible. What's the point? What's the payoff? If it's so good, why isn't it taking the league by storm? I don't get it.

Speaking as someone whose football knowledge is paltry compared to some other posters here, the impression I get is that it's a system that puts a whole lot on the players, especially the quarterback, and thus it's ultimately a very low floor, high ceiling offense. I think we saw that with Daboll and how it looked with Allen and Diggs in contrast to how it looks now in New York. The payoff is really high if you have aptitude at QB and playmakers around him, but it will likely make mediocre talent look worse than these newer "QB proof" systems.

 

[PC Drunken Friar]

Maybe that's a good thing for LV. Hiring marquee names that can't coach hasn't worked out too well.

For sure, maybe I should have been more specific. Particularly getting Harbaugh to leave U of Michigan.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I mean, he kind of forced out the franchise QB (whatever you think of Carr), went and got his guy who seems to be totally cooked. He also got Hoyer instead of just keeping Stidham and then decided to start Hoyer when Jimmy was out with predictable results. I don't know that it's more complicated than that.

I don't think Carr was going to take them anywhere but your plan needs to be a little better than that.

The following two things can be true:

- Carr stinks and will never lead a team to winning anything. He has a long career of proving just that.

- Replacing Carr with Jimmy G was a mistake, not because Carr was good but because Jimmy is broken.

 

[ManicCompression]

Speaking as someone whose football knowledge is paltry compared to some other posters here, the impression I get is that it's a system that puts a whole lot on the players, especially the quarterback, and thus it's ultimately a very low floor, high ceiling offense. I think we saw that with Daboll and how it looked with Allen and Diggs in contrast to how it looks now in New York.

So basically, it's a bad system if you don't have Tom Brady or Josh Allen?

 

[bosockboy]

I like Josh a lot and think he's made some bad choices in choosing his two HC opportunities. I haven't followed him as an HC closely so others may say he sucked as an HC. Regardless, I hope he ends up back in NE at least as an OC because I think we've seen his value in that role over the past 15-plus years.

Value stapled to Tom Brady.

 

[lexrageorge]

So basically, it's a bad system if you don't have Tom Brady or Josh Allen?

Or, more likely, any system looks bad when you have a bad QB. Mac Jones and the 2023 Jimmy Garropollo are both bad QB's.

 

[rodderick]

So basically, it's a bad system if you don't have Tom Brady or Josh Allen?

I think in today's NFL, with guys coming out of college with less experience running NFL style offenses than ever, that might very well be an accurate representation of it, yes. On the other hand you have systems like Shanahan's which ask the QB to do so little they can't erase any deficits or climb out of holes and then you're 1-35 when trailing by 3 or more points at the start of the fourth quarter like that team is. It's hard.

 

[cornwalls@6]

99% of the discussion around coaching "trees" is absurd. Each coach is their own individual, and brings their own unique style, no matter who they may have served as assistant. Belichick was a Parcells assistant, but is a very different coach than Parcells in many ways.

And it's also totally arbitrary. McDaniels and Patricia are part of Belichick's "tree", but O'Brien and Saban aren't?

Finally, no head coach would be successful with a broken down Garropollo at QB, who as noted is having a significantly worse season than even Mac Jones. JimmyG is 32 and is probably seeing his final year as a starter in the NFL; wouldn't be surprised if he retires in the offseason. It was the Raiders GM and (likely) owner that decided to ditch Derek Carr; neither has any connection to Belichick last I checked.

Thank you. I’ve always thought it was a meaningless metric for evaluating a head coaches value/or stature. So many variables go into determining whether a coach succeeds in the league or not. If you come from a winning program, it’s going to get you more opportunities. Beyond that, I don’t think the record of his protégés says much of anything about a head coach.

 

[tims4wins]

My take on coaching trees is that volume is the most meaningful metric. How many of your guys elevate to coordinator and head positions? Weis, Crennel, McDaniels, BOB, Patricia, Mangini, Daboll... there's a lot.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The coaching tree talk is also absurd because there are axes to grind. Brian Daboll was not mentioned as part of the BB coaching tree last year when the Giants had some success. This year they stink and suddenly he's part of the coaching tree again.

It's stupid "analysis."

 

[ManicCompression]

I think in today's NFL, with guys coming out of college with less experience running NFL style offenses than ever, that might very well be an accurate representation of it, yes. On the other hand you have systems like Shanahan's which ask the QB to do so little they can't erase any deficits or climb out of holes and then you're 1-35 when trailing by 3 or more points at the start of the fourth quarter like that team is. It's hard.

Yeah, sorry to be flip. I'm just a little tired of hearing "Oh, it's because we use Erhardt-Perkins here, and it's really complex" every time there's dysfunction in a BB related offense. At some point, surely the system must be partially to blame.

 

[CoffeeNerdness]

and then you're 1-35 when trailing by 3 or more points at the start of the fourth quarter like that team is.

Is that real? Holy shit.

 

[Kenesaw Martin Landau]

My take on coaching trees is that volume is the most meaningful metric. How many of your guys elevate to coordinator and head positions? Weis, Crennel, McDaniels, BOB, Patricia, Mangini, Daboll... there's a lot.

You could add the front office "tree", Ziegler, Caserio, Pioli, etc.

 

[8slim]

I thought McDaniels was a great OC. I'd take him back in that role in a heartbeat. I'm baffled by the talk about his scheme being "old and predictable". Wasn't the 2021 Pats O pretty darn good, especially given that it was being led by a rookie QB?

I don't know what the team offense metric-du-jour is, but the 2021 Pats were 10th in Expected Points, 5th in net yards per pass attempt, 11th in yards per rush attempt, and 4th in total points.

Some guys just aren't cut out to be a head coach. He's one of 'em.

 

[slamminsammya]

I think the NFL sucks in general at hiring head coaches but it has gotten much better. The "hire a offensive / defensive coordinator" approach is incredibly unimaginative, and usually they are considered "good" coordinators without correcting much if at all for how much talent they had to work with. Does anyone hire a coordinator whose units were middle of the pack?

 

[kenneycb]

Bill only coached for 3 seasons as an assistant elsewhere before being hired by the Giants, and then he spent 12 years there. His formative years as a coach in the NFL were under Parcells, he went from assistant coach to positional coach to DC to eventual HC candidate in NY, so he's a Parcells tree guy. Aside from his decade+ as an assistant, Saban had been a DC in college, a HC in college and a positional coach in the NFL before he ever got the Browns DC job. I'd argue that the mere fact that he was hired by Bill to be a DC is proof that he was an established coach by that time.

Why not Ray Perkins? He was the HC for 6 years and hired Belichick as an assistant for the Giants. Are you only counted as part of the tree if you reach a certain level? How do you define "established coach"? Are you not established by 10 years but once you get a DC job you are? It's stupid and it's completely arbitrary depending on the argument you're trying to make. It's like when you do / don't include Vrabel as part of the BB tree even though he's never actually coached under BB.

 

[8slim]

Coaching trees are so so dumb. It assumes the staff member was on the receiving end of some mystical transfer of knowledge by the head coach that shaped their future.

I imagine most of us have a lifetime of working for people. How many really had a major influence on how we did our jobs and, more importantly, how we led teams afterwards. Personally I can think of 2, out of many many more than that.

 

[rodderick]

Why not Ray Perkins? He was the HC for 6 years and hired Belichick as an assistant for the Giants. Are you only counted as part of the tree if you reach a certain level? How do you define "established coach"? Are you not established by 10 years but once you get a DC job you are?

Man, I don't think I'm being all that controversial in saying "20 years of prior coaching experience at the college and NFL level, including prior DC and HC stints before taking a job with someone for 4 years" and "3 years of low level assistant roles before taking a job working for someone and then spending 12 years in various roles" are very different scenarios. I don't have to elaborate a whole specific thesis and yeah, the discussion is dumb in general, I just think Bill is clearly a Parcells guy and to me Saban isn't a Bill guy.

 

[tims4wins]

You could add the front office "tree", Ziegler, Caserio, Pioli, etc.

Good point.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Oh fuck, coaching trees.

Anyways, I figured that crew was in trouble because of how much static was emanating from that place, but a true midseason firing (as opposed to a firing with a few weeks left in the season to get a jump on the hiring process) is a bit surprising.

 

[Eric1984]

He was his DC in Cleveland then got hired by MSU, thus beginning his college career. Not sure how he can’t be.

Saban spent 4 years as George Perles' DC at MSU before he spent a day in the NFL. Before that, he spent over a decade as a position coach in a number of college programs. He had a year as a D1 HC at Toledo before BB brought him to Cleveland.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I do find it pretty funny that Ziegler and Josh went to Los Vegas, did exactly what a lot of people have been advocating for Bill to do here.... and are fired after less than 2 years.

 

[tims4wins]

I do find it pretty funny that Ziegler and Josh went to Los Vegas, did exactly what a lot of people have been advocating for Bill to do here.... and are fired after less than 2 years.

Fair point, but if BB had retired after the playoff appearance in 2021 and a new coach / GM had started in 2022 and had this performance to date, they'd probably be on the chopping block too.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Fair point, but if BB had retired after the playoff appearance in 2021 and a new coach / GM had started in 2022 and had this performance to date, they'd probably be on the chopping block too.

Yes, there are indeed different standards for guys with no track record of success when compared with the most successful person in the history of the league... as there should be

 

[tims4wins]

Yes, there are indeed different standards for guys with no track record of success when compared with the most successful person in the history of the league... as there should be

No disagreement there.

 

[AlNipper49]

The argument is absolutely insane. It assumes that BB is hiring coaches based on their ability to be and/or act as head coaches. Over his tenure in NE he's been the head coach in all professional sports with the most stability. Given the outcome that he probably intended/intends to coach for as long as he has, why would he have been looking for those qualities in the first place?

 

[DJnVa]

How often does a head coach get fired midseason by two different teams? Gotta think that's it for him as an HC, unless he wants to go to college.

I wonder if college could be a place for him. A school outside the P5 that needs some pub, in the Sun Belt or CUSA or something, and he comes in promising to go all out on offense. I've read he's kinda prickly in person though, so recruiting may not be a thing.

 

[E5 Yaz]

nfl.com: Antonio Pierce becomes the Raiders' eighth head coach (third interim) in the last 13 years, dating back to when Davis took over the team in 2011.

 

[Cellar-Door]

So last time Josh got fired, he came back during that year as a special assistant to help out.... Bill O'Brien.
Not sure that happens again this time though, since BOB had likely already told Bill he was going to take the PSU job by that point so it was assisting while also setting up to be re-hired as OC.

Ziegler seems even less likely to come back, hard to ask him to work under Groh, and it puts Groh in a tough position to bring back his former boss.

 

[Rudy's Curve]

Let's take a look back at some of the greatest hits:

- Blew 16-point lead against Arizona with eight minutes to go and lost in OT on a fumble return
- Blew 17-0 lead to Chiefs
- Shut out by the Saints and didn't cross the 50 until the last drive down 24-0
- Blew 17-0 lead to 2-6 Jaguars
- Lost at home to Jeff Saturday in his debut, who would not win another game
- Blew 13-point lead with three minutes left to just off the street Baker Mayfield, who went 98 yards with 1:45 left and no timeouts
- Gave up 76-yard TD drive to Kenny Pickett for all the marbles when he had to have a TD
- Clowned from start to finish by D2 rookie
- Outgained by over 300 yards and 19 minutes of possession against the Lions

I'm not sure Belichick has nine embarrassments like that in his Pats career. Josh did it in a year and a half!

 

[Justthetippett]

I thought McDaniels was a great OC. I'd take him back in that role in a heartbeat. I'm baffled by the talk about his scheme being "old and predictable". Wasn't the 2021 Pats O pretty darn good, especially given that it was being led by a rookie QB?

I don't know what the team offense metric-du-jour is, but the 2021 Pats were 10th in Expected Points, 5th in net yards per pass attempt, 11th in yards per rush attempt, and 4th in total points.

Some guys just aren't cut out to be a head coach. He's one of 'em.

It's also hard to separate play calling from execution. The two plays to Adams on MNF were excellent calls and atrocious throws.

Whatever it takes to be a good HC though, Josh doesn't have it. You either have to be a great manager (like John Harbaugh or in that vein) or have some real expertise on one or both sides of the ball and at least some managerial skills. He seems to really lack the latter. Things really would have exploded in Indy, which would have been both fun and painful to watch.

I wonder if pending minority owner TB will have some role going forward, either in a front office capacity or some other formal advisory position.

 

[sodenj5]

It's also hard to separate play calling from execution. The two plays to Adams on MNF were excellent calls and atrocious throws.

Whatever it takes to be a good HC though, Josh doesn't have it. You either have to be a great manager (like John Harbaugh or in that vein) or have some real expertise on one or both sides of the ball and at least some managerial skills. He seems to really lack the latter. Things really would have exploded in Indy, which would have been both fun and painful to watch.

I wonder if pending minority owner TB will have some role going forward, either in a front office capacity or some other formal advisory position.

Ultimately, you have to add value somewhere. McDaniels’ value is supposed to come in the form of offense, and the Raiders offense stinks.

He isn’t adding value to the defense, and he is almost certainly creating negative value as a manager/leader/decision maker.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Coaching tree is a marketing term. Like essential vitamins and minerals.

That people put stock into it is why we have had a legacy admissions process at all of our bestest institutions of higher learning etc.

However if McDaniels failure as a head coach means its yet another sign that BB is washed/overrated/Brady-aided absolutely has to go, sure. Its not a logical argument but people apparently aren't alone in making it.

 

[E5 Yaz]

However if McDaniels failure as a head coach means its yet another sign that BB is washed/overrated/Brady-aided absolutely has to go, sure. Its not a logical argument but people apparently aren't alone in making it.

I think this is part of it. We're in the middle of the tear down BB's legacy portion of the program and, as useless as a coaching tree is as a measuring stick, it'll be brought up

 

[cornwalls@6]

Let's take a look back at some of the greatest hits:

- Blew 16-point lead against Arizona with eight minutes to go and lost in OT on a fumble return
- Blew 17-0 lead to Chiefs
- Shut out by the Saints and didn't cross the 50 until the last drive down 24-0
- Blew 17-0 lead to 2-6 Jaguars
- Lost at home to Jeff Saturday in his debut, who would not win another game
- Blew 13-point lead with three minutes left to just off the street Baker Mayfield, who went 98 yards with 1:45 left and no timeouts
- Gave up 76-yard TD drive to Kenny Pickett for all the marbles when he had to have a TD
- Clowned from start to finish by D2 rookie
- Outgained by over 300 yards and 19 minutes of possession against the Lions

I'm not sure Belichick has nine embarrassments like that in his Pats career. Josh did it in a year and a half!

And yet beat BB twice

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

And yet beat BB twice

Plus one more time as HC of the Broncos.

 

[The Social Chair]

A big part of the Patriot Way is how demanding drill sergeant Belichick is of players. Practicing in pads, etc. We’ve all heard the endless stories from disgruntled former players that playing for the Patriots isn’t “fun” and that it’s not for everyone. The coaching tree all having the same issues elsewhere (losing the locker room) probably isn’t a coincidence. They try to wear the hoodie and run their teams like Bill does, but they don’t have the credibility or management skills to pull it off.

They don't have Tom Brady

 

[rodderick]

To me it seemed as if Josh valued having the QB be "his guy" above all else, he wanted someone to play his plays as they were designed to be played and I believe he correctly identified Derek Carr as a guy who was gun shy, skipping over reads and too quick to check down. He's always been a timid passer, and timid passers won't take you anywhere in the NFL. The hubris comes from believing all it took for that offense to succeed was a QB that was bought into the system and willing to do what Josh wanted him to do. Jimmy is that, but he also kinda sucks it turns out, so talent mattered.

 

[GB5]

Kirk Fetentz at Iowa and Pat Hill formerly of Fresno State are two very successful college coaches who I believe are Belichick tree branches.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I just don't get how anyone spends any time thinking about "coaching trees" beyond noting it in terms of expected style of play.

The concept that an elevated assistant will almost certainly mimic or even closely resemble the decision making of a former boss simply isn't consistent with human experience.

My guess is that Josh probably had a lot of things he wanted to do differently than BB and did them. Now he is being paid to sit home. That's not on BB even if people are trying to connect the dots.

With regards to a Josh return, what exactly is the downside?

 

[E5 Yaz]

With regards to a Josh return, what exactly is the downside?

They might make him the heir apparent

 

[Ed Hillel]

They don't have Tom Brady

There was a hell of a lot more than Tom Brady to the successful Pats teams. The defenses were chock full of Pro Bowl caliber players and on-the-field generals, and the Special Teams were consistently elite outside of the punters. Especially the first run, from 2001-2008 or so.

 

[reggiecleveland]

So basically, it's a bad system if you don't have Tom Brady or Josh Allen?

The rules of the NFL, which were changed in large part to defeat Belichick and help Peyton Manning, mean without a great QB you will have trouble winning. To me, the idea Bill is a bad coach is a delayed victory for the Colts who changed the rules. Even Lombardi said pro football was flawed becasue the QB was too important.

 

[tims4wins]

I just don't get how anyone spends any time thinking about "coaching trees" beyond noting it in terms of expected style of play.

The concept that an elevated assistant will almost certainly mimic or even closely resemble the decision making of a former boss simply isn't consistent with human experience.

My guess is that Josh probably had a lot of things he wanted to do differently than BB and did them. Now he is being paid to sit home. That's not on BB even if people are trying to connect the dots.

With regards to a Josh return, what exactly is the downside?

They might get worse!

 

[Auger34]

I mean, he kind of forced out the franchise QB (whatever you think of Carr), went and got his guy who seems to be totally cooked. He also got Hoyer instead of just keeping Stidham and then decided to start Hoyer when Jimmy was out with predictable results. I don't know that it's more complicated than that.

I don't think Carr was going to take them anywhere but your plan needs to be a little better than that.

I just posted a variation of this but I 100% agree.

Carr is no great shakes but he's a competent NFL QB. I mean, McDaniels literally ran him out of town and brought in a guy who has been really, really fucking bad. Combined with his personality, it looks like that made him completely lose the locker room.

Bill Barnwell did a rundown of all of the moves that McD and Ziegler made...they were really an atrocious duo. I don't know how anyone could look at this and act like they just needed more time or that there was anything positive brewing

 

[Jimbodandy]

nfl.com: Antonio Pierce becomes the Raiders' eighth head coach (third interim) in the last 13 years, dating back to when Davis took over the team in 2011.

The Al Davis ownership tree doesn't look so hot either.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

They might make him the heir apparent

If the Krafts believe Josh is the next HC - and we have zero evidence of it - they presumably have his number. Him being around the corner probably doesn't change the odds much for that outcome.

 

[ShaneTrot]

This tells me that Davis made more money on that move to Vegas than was initially thought. I do feel bad for Josh, that offensive line is putrid but he did a bad job with some slick skill players. Offense is down all over the league this year. What is the reason? All the QB injuries necessitating shitty backups playing, the Fangio defenses stifling big plays, putrid offenses like NE, LV, NYG, NYJ, etc, the piss poor offensive line play across the league, or it's just all the above. The product is unwatchable at times this year.