KillerBs said:
Shaw's surely had a great 60 AB run here, but I am still dubious based on the minor league performance. I get Drek's point that everyone's ML performance does not reflect their minor league performance, but at the same time you cannot ignore his inability to hit at AAA this year. His 736 OPS at AA at age 23 is a red flag for me too.
That doesn't mean I write him off. It does mean if I have a choice between giving PT between Shaw OTOH and Bradley or Castillo on the other I give it to the OFers. It also means that I cant conceive of what Shaw could do the rest of 2015 that would make me comfortable penciling him as a starting 1b for 2016. A bench spot? sure maybe. But there is too much risk there to turn to the job over to Shaw for 2016, even if it is only the big half of a platoon.
Shaw's AAA line against RHP this year is 0.258/0.342/0.361. That is over 194 PAs. Last year in 223 PAs against AAA RHP his slash line was 0.291/0.348/0.502. So far this year at the ML level his slash against RHP is 0.282 0.326 0.436. If you dig into his AAA numbers this year you see a really awful April (.185/.260/.308) followed by a modest bounce back in May (.250/.336/.394) and June (.288/.342/.356). Prior to his first call-up breaking his hot streak in June he was posting a slash of .364/.429/.455. He spent July riding the shuttle so the decline in is overall stats (BRef's splits include both mL and ML PAs for the month) is explainable.
May and June aren't too off from the guy who moved up to AAA last year and had a .262/.321/.431 line. That guy had a LH/RH split of .189/.253/.256 vs. .291/.348/.502, so it isn't like he's never hit AAA pitching, he's just never hit AAA LHP.
His ML line against RHP is .282/.326/.436. Not bad, better when you consider that about a quarter of those PAs came while riding the shuttle and he basically need nothing productive in them. It is also only about .060 points better than all of his projections from Fangraphs (ZIPS, Steamer, and Depth Charts all placed Shaw as a ~.700 OPS MLer).
The explosion against LHP is the mystery. It isn't the product of cheap hits, or even some kind of astronomical BABIP (.385 against LHP so far this year). My observation largely attributes it to LHPs pitching him like he's your average LHB. Throw fastballs on the opposite edge and breaking balls that move off the plate away, expecting him to dribble the fastballs down the left foul line and swing and miss at the breakers. Instead he's showing great plate discipline and very impressive reach. He's leaving breaking balls and fastballs off the plate alone, squaring up outside fastballs, and when thrown a mistake breaking ball that lands on the outer edge he's showing the bat speed and reach to get around on them and hook them hard to right field. I don't know how to post his zones from ESPN, but if you check it
HERE you will see blobs of red middle/middle, middle/outside, low/middle, and outside/middle (not to mention a blob off the plate and in the bottom of the zone also outside).
He is likely experiencing a confluence of causality. MLB LHPs don't have a book on him so they're treating him like the standard AAA LH rube. He's seeing a nice bounce in plate control as ML umpires are more accurate than mL umps and Shaw was likely getting a lot of bad calls from these exact same borderline strikes form LHPs in AAA. He's also obviously riding a hot streak.
What happens when LHPs start busting him inside is the real question. Is the more precise outside strike really that big an asset to Shaw's game? If so he might suddenly become split neutral or even reverse as so many mediocre LHPs live on those outside breakers and can't effectively pitch inside.
Lastly, both his BABIP and BB%s have taken some hits this year relative to his norms. His BB% for example had always been in the 13-14% range and to date in AAA (last year and this year) has been around 8%. His BABIP has traditionally bee in the .300's, including last year in his first stint at AAA. His year in AAA it is .289. So his current ML BABIP of .304 is not only well within league norms, it is within Shaw's own career norms, and his BB% is likely only going to trend up from the current 6.3% he's sporting at the ML level. A big part of his strong AA season in 2014 was a significant decline in K% (BABIP was still only .301) to 11.1%. He had a 22% K rate in his first taste of AA, that appeared again in his first taste of AAA, but he was working the K% down in AAA this year at 16.8%. His secondary stats all indicate that his current small sample isn't a complete mirage built on unsustainable BABIP, BB%, K%, etc.. His ISO is riding high to be sure, but it wouldn't be out of the question for him to normalize at something that still starts with a .2xx.
He was having a mediocre AAA season, largely a mediocre April that he rebounded from, prior to getting put on the shuttle and seeing inconsistent ABs. Now that he's seeing regular ABs he's gotten hot and is on a tear. I don't think it's any more fair to assume he's the guy his base AAA stat line suggest than to consider him the guy his current ML line suggests. Both have serious sample size issues and major caveats attached.
If he doesn't turn into a pumpkin by the end of the season I think the FO would be absolutely out of their minds to not go into 2016 with Travis Shaw as the backup 1B/3B and probably even start working him out in LF. He has shown that his tools at least have the potential to transition well against ML pitching. He absolutely should not be written in as a presumptive starter however, unless 2016 is an intentional punt year.
If the FO wants to move Hanley to 1B I don't think Travis Shaw should change their thinking any. He'd be a great defensive sub/backup who could take a game or two a week there as well as one or two from Sandoval and maybe a game a week in LF depending on the state of the roster. If they're set in keeping Hanley in LF however I'd be fine with the club taking Shaw, presumptive FA Kyle Blanks, and/or another guy or two on short years to compete for the job. The Cards might trade or even DFA Brandon Moss given how poorly he's done this year and specifically for them, so that's one option for another LHB to add to the competition. Sam Travis might, if he goes on a tear with his first taste of AAA, slip into the RHB options by mid-season as well. If Hanley isn't moving to 1B I'd rather see the club try to composite the position together and find a diamond in the rough than drop market rate on a veteran answer. All disposable dollars need to go to getting a front line starting pitcher (or two) and some much needed bullpen help.