Trading Jon Lester (news and speculation thread)
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That is absolutely a playoff caliber rotation, but replace that with Lester, Lackey, Buccholz, RDLR and Workman and I still think it is a playoff roatation. And it saves them money. Money to go get some bats. Lester will cost less than Shields and Santana. And with Lackey at 500, all the better. That is what gets me partially so angry. I think they can save money by giving Lester a sizable contract, because it will be less expensive than the alternative.Snodgrass'Muff said:
Whatever, I have said my peace. It will stink, and at a hundred different levels, when he goes.
edit: because I can't type for beans.
I'm 100 percent with you on the Lester evaluation The worry I have with this approach is that if the market for Santana and Shields caliber pitchers turns out to be four or five years they'll end up either somewhat SOL and shopping the Dempster aisle or reclamation rack or end up mini panicking and taking what ends up to be a worse risk reward than just signing Lester would have been.Snodgrass'Muff said:
If they trade Lester to either St Louis or Pittsburgh, does that drive the market for Lackey higher? Doesn't Milwaukee and the losing team in the NL Central get more nervous?
3/5th's of the rotation could be dealt for what should be a pretty remarkable haul. How did this team not work again?
Norm Siebern said:
I'm not sure it will cost less to have Lester and Lackey. It's probably not realistic to expect Lackey to pitch for league minimum. If they keep him, they are likely going to buy out the option for a team friendly extension in the 10-12 million range. Add 24 million for Lester and we're looking at a minimum of 34 million for them. I'm pretty sure they can get two pitchers in the Shields/Santana range for significantly less than that.
Stitch01 said:
It might go that way, but I doubt both Lester and Scherzer will sign early so it's entirely possible that if the market for mid tier starters goes nuts, they may reevaluated on Lester and make a 6 year offer, or decide to make a run at Scherzer. If they are moving on from Lester at his current asking price, they are probably betting on finding a short years starter or two at an AAV around 12-15. If that bet doesn't pay off, they'll adjust.
bosockboy said:
Can we get a source on stuff like this?
RT @Ken_Rosenthal: Source: #Athletics also in the mix for Lester, as first reported by @GordonEdes.Luis Taint said:
Wait, what? Shields and Santana aren't going to cost more than Lester, and if they do, the Sox won't touch them.Norm Siebern said:
You seem to be posting under the impression that the Sox are now determined to go out and spend more money on a free-agent pitcher (Scherzer, Shields, Santana) because they don't like something about Lester specifically. They've made it clear that they just don't want to make nine-figure, 5-6 year commitments to pitchers that are over thirty when they sign their contracts. They're certainly not going to be going after Scherzer, nor will they sign Price, Santana or any other older guy for the terms that Lester will command on the market. That money is going elsewhere.
Snodgrass'Muff said:
He's not exactly breaking any news here: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/competitive-balance-lottery-pays-out-12-draft-picks?ymd=20140723&content_id=85923640&vkey=news_mlb
When you say "stuff like this" it kinda sounds like you think this is hard to find info. It's been out for a while.
Its not really a secret. The Cards got a round 1 comp pick in next years draft that can be traded.Snodgrass'Muff said:
Yes, and a deal does not have to be made unless they get a good package in return. The Sox are the ones still in the drivers seat. If I'm a team that has a shot to go far in the post-season for the first time in awhile (e.g., Oakland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Toronto, Milwaukee, Los Angeles), then I don't worry so much about over-thinking the "rent a player for two months" issue. Lester is a top-of-the-rotation left-handed ace, and could make all the difference in a short postseason series.BigSoxFan said:
As others have mentioned, prospects (as hyped as some may be) are not guarantees, so roll the dice and get him. Not that "Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell" is a perfect comparison, but I doubt there would have been much regret if the Sox won the Series that year (even the Brady Anderson and Curt Schilling for Mike Boddicker wasn't horrible at the time). And if the Sox don't get a good package in return, then hold onto him and use the exclusive signing window to get a deal done, or at least try.
Ideally, Lester stays for a reasonable deal and is still compensated well by the Sox. I don't think Ben would let him go over a disagreement of 1-2 years on a contract....If he is traded and not pursued heavily by Boston after the season, then it is safe to assume that the sides are very far apart. And if that is the case, then they make the deal...I will be sad to see him go, but this could be quite an opportunity to get some solid core young players, and you have to do it if you feel he won't resign anyways. I don't feel this front office would completely nickel and dime a home-grown player of Lester's talent and team history. I think they've proven that they have the top goal of putting a team on the field that can consistently contend.
Crappy production out of our CF, LF, RF, C, SS, 3B, and 2B positions. That and Buchholz.knucklecup said:
I can see it. Shark hasn't been stellar and Hammels has been lousy. Reliever turned starter Chavez may be out of gas. Kaz wasn't great this week. Milone has pitched poorly at Sacto since being sent down, and he may be pulling a Doubront. Billy B really wants it this year.Luis Taint said:
Saw Pedro Alvarez's name. He has been benched, at least the last 2 nights for fielding woes. He has 23 errors at 3B, 20 of them throwing errors. Haven't seen him but he must be going all Knoblach or A-Rod that one year. Do not trade Lester for him.
Ynoa is pretty much a non-prospect at this point. He has been horrendous in A ball. Alcantara is the only reasonable prospect left in that system, and the Sox obviously know what he can do. Unless the A's are moving another piece for prospects for Lester, or are engaged in a three team move, they are not going to get Lester.
DrewDawg said:
Bigpupp said:
I looked in the MLB and Minor League forums to see what he was talking about and didn't see anything to flesh out his post. If it's considered widely known information, then I'm sorry for not keeping up, but I hadn't seen it mentioned before then. At the very least, mentioning which pick they have would probably be a good thing. It's the 3rd pick in the competitive balance round, which follows the first round.
5 HR in 36.2 innings though. 3 of his 5 games started have been against Houston or Seattle.DrewDawg said:
For Moss, Reddick, and Lowrie. The Sox will then trade Uehara, trade for Papplebon, and sign Masterson in the offseasonknucklecup said:
thestardawg said:
Alcantara is out for the year (TJ in April).
I wouldn't rule out OAK or Billy Beane. They don't have a single top 50 prospect but they do have some interesting assets, including Drew Pomeranz, Daniel Robertson (high-A SS), Renato Nunez (high-A 3B) and a competitive balance pick (Round B, #2). It would be more of a quantity-over-quality trade, assuming you couldn't get top-50 prospects from other teams.
One benefit of trading Lester to Oakland is that there would be no fear of him loving it there and wanting to stay in the offseason. A trade to Oakland would make a re-signing of Lester more possible than trading him anywhere else
knucklecup said:
They have 3 regular position players with more than 250 PAs and an OPS above .750. They have a team OPS below .700 (OPS+ of 95). They are among the bottom 1/3 of MLB in Runs, Hits, HR, RBI, batting average and slugging. Yet have the dubious standing of being among the 5-best teams at striking out, grounding into doubles players, and leaving runners on base and in scoring position. Not to mention, their #3 hitter tonight is sporting a .704 OPS and their everyday 6-9 hitters have put up an aggregate slash line of 230/280/334/614.
What I'm trying to get at is that Brock Holt, David Ortiz and Mike Napoli are the only three players that have come close to or exceeded their offensive expectations this season and made meaningful contributions to scoring runs on a regular basis.
Harry Hooper said:
Damn, what is Tampa waiting for? If they can get Tavares/Miller/pick for Price, they should be all over that yesterday. Fortunately, the Red Sox don't have the problem that they're playing so well the clubhouse would lose their minds over a white flag trade. I hope Tampa keeps winning, at least through Thursday.
Man, even just Miller for Lester would be pretty sweet.
Couldn't Matt Olson be a piece coming from Oakland?
1st round supp from 2012, he's 20 playing in A+ in the Cal league (I know, I know)
393/534927 this year. 30 HR, 91BB/108K
As a 19 year old in the Midwest (A) league, he put up a respectable 326/435/761 line playing 2 years below league average and in a pitchers league.
He's a thumper, not a lot of those around today.
1st round supp from 2012, he's 20 playing in A+ in the Cal league (I know, I know)
393/534927 this year. 30 HR, 91BB/108K
As a 19 year old in the Midwest (A) league, he put up a respectable 326/435/761 line playing 2 years below league average and in a pitchers league.
He's a thumper, not a lot of those around today.
Big night for Kemp. 2 HRs, one a bomb to dead central. Maybe he's coming around. Not that it's happening, but interesting.
With Lester, they are obviously scared to death of a CC or Johan Santana decline accompanied by the giant contract. I've wanted them to pay him all along, for all the sentimental reasons, and also because I think he'll continue to be very good/great for years. Horse is the right term. That delivery is a thing of beauty.
I really think the team is outsmarting themselves here. We'll see.
With Lester, they are obviously scared to death of a CC or Johan Santana decline accompanied by the giant contract. I've wanted them to pay him all along, for all the sentimental reasons, and also because I think he'll continue to be very good/great for years. Horse is the right term. That delivery is a thing of beauty.
I really think the team is outsmarting themselves here. We'll see.
I don't want anything to do with Kemp either. Even more so if it costs Lester.
For one, Kemp isn't THAT much younger than Lester, and he isn't that big of a game changer. He has hit over 30 HR's exactly once in his career, and his 39 in 2011 were a major outlier. He has driven in over 100 runs exactly twice in his career. Once was 101, and his 126 was a major outlier.
"Advanced statistics"? OPS+ over 125 exactly once in his career... again his career 2011, which is also the only time he had over 300 total bases. Matt Kemp is an above average baseball player. Matt Kemp is NOT a game changing baseball player. His 2011 season was an 8.2 WAR season. He has put up a total of 11.0 WAR in the rest of his 9 year career.... 1.22 WAR per season.
Lester has a career WAR (in the same time period) of 31.0, including two season over 6 and another over 5 (and likely a second after this year). He doesn't lead the league in a ton of categories, but a 200 innings per year pitcher at and average of over 4 WAR per season is much less replaceable than Matt Kemp. Not to mention, that Kemp has shown far more signs of age and "injury pronenesss" than Lester.
I readily admit that I am a Jon Lester fanboy. I have posted before about some of the reasons why, so i won't bore you with them again.... but trading Lester for a package that includes Matt Kemp makes no sense to me. If the orgnization simply knows that they can't re-sign him, and they trade him for a bunch of guys who will make the next ten years better then that I could understand.
But if they trade him for Matt Kemp.... I honestly think there will be a large portion of Boston who make Matt Kemp feel far worse than they ever made Carl Crawford feel.
For one, Kemp isn't THAT much younger than Lester, and he isn't that big of a game changer. He has hit over 30 HR's exactly once in his career, and his 39 in 2011 were a major outlier. He has driven in over 100 runs exactly twice in his career. Once was 101, and his 126 was a major outlier.
"Advanced statistics"? OPS+ over 125 exactly once in his career... again his career 2011, which is also the only time he had over 300 total bases. Matt Kemp is an above average baseball player. Matt Kemp is NOT a game changing baseball player. His 2011 season was an 8.2 WAR season. He has put up a total of 11.0 WAR in the rest of his 9 year career.... 1.22 WAR per season.
Lester has a career WAR (in the same time period) of 31.0, including two season over 6 and another over 5 (and likely a second after this year). He doesn't lead the league in a ton of categories, but a 200 innings per year pitcher at and average of over 4 WAR per season is much less replaceable than Matt Kemp. Not to mention, that Kemp has shown far more signs of age and "injury pronenesss" than Lester.
I readily admit that I am a Jon Lester fanboy. I have posted before about some of the reasons why, so i won't bore you with them again.... but trading Lester for a package that includes Matt Kemp makes no sense to me. If the orgnization simply knows that they can't re-sign him, and they trade him for a bunch of guys who will make the next ten years better then that I could understand.
But if they trade him for Matt Kemp.... I honestly think there will be a large portion of Boston who make Matt Kemp feel far worse than they ever made Carl Crawford feel.
Let's recap the facts (as seen by a clam):
1. Lester has not yet been traded.
2. If Ben can't get what he wants in trade for Lester, he's not going to cave.
3. If the Sox retain Lester, it's plausible they sign him to an equitable deal. That doesn't necessarily mean 7 years (as often quoted in the thread).
4. The Sox cannot replace Lester's talent on the open market, unless they sign Price or Scherzer, both of which will be more costly (money or prospects).
5. Winning past World Series is irrelevant. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to remember a Tony Clark ground rule double or Torii Hunter growing up an inch too short.
6. A Playoff-favorite team needs front line pitching. A Wild Card team needs a genuine ace.
7. Well-funded teams have the advantage of being able to gamble on late-end down years in a contract (as well as overpaying for bench depth).
John Jonathon Tyler Lester is an ace.
{edit: 8. I guarantee no one in the front office has a hard and fast rule about "over 30". That's just media-generated crap. The idea that the Red Sox staff doesn't look at each player as an individual case is insulting. If they have qualms about an aging Lester, it's from inside information and observation, not some arbitrary notion of having lived 30-years on earth.}
1. Lester has not yet been traded.
2. If Ben can't get what he wants in trade for Lester, he's not going to cave.
3. If the Sox retain Lester, it's plausible they sign him to an equitable deal. That doesn't necessarily mean 7 years (as often quoted in the thread).
4. The Sox cannot replace Lester's talent on the open market, unless they sign Price or Scherzer, both of which will be more costly (money or prospects).
5. Winning past World Series is irrelevant. Anyone who thinks otherwise needs to remember a Tony Clark ground rule double or Torii Hunter growing up an inch too short.
6. A Playoff-favorite team needs front line pitching. A Wild Card team needs a genuine ace.
7. Well-funded teams have the advantage of being able to gamble on late-end down years in a contract (as well as overpaying for bench depth).
{edit: 8. I guarantee no one in the front office has a hard and fast rule about "over 30". That's just media-generated crap. The idea that the Red Sox staff doesn't look at each player as an individual case is insulting. If they have qualms about an aging Lester, it's from inside information and observation, not some arbitrary notion of having lived 30-years on earth.}
edoug said:
It will crash for a little bit. Which will be a good for people to cool down a bit.
Who is going to make out better, the team that trades Lester or Price first, or the team that sits back and waits to the last minute?
And he has a 794-0 win loss record.Reverend said:
And the wiki folks were nice enough to let us know who we are getting in return...
Lester was traded to the Baltimore Orioles in the early morning of July 30th 2014 right before the trade deadline for Jeff Fiorentino.
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