Trading Chips and Keepers

southshoresoxfan

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Sprowl said:
 
I made the comparison two days ago. If you don't like it, you'd be better off stating your reasons and rationale instead of playing thread police.
 
Because its completely and utterly absurd? Do i need to list the reasons why comparing Kelly Olynyk, who has flat out sucked this season, to one of the best players in franchise history is ridiculous?  Olynky doesn't even have a remotely passable back to the basket game, never mind one of the best in the history of the league. Arm length, touch, feel for the game.  Olynyk is Raef LaFrentz without the 3pt shot. 
 

Sprowl

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southshoresoxfan said:
 
Because its completely and utterly absurd? Do i need to list the reasons why comparing Kelly Olynyk, who has flat out sucked this season, to one of the best players in franchise history is ridiculous?  Olynky doesn't even have a remotely passable back to the basket game, never mind one of the best in the history of the league. Arm length, touch, feel for the game.  Olynyk is Raef LaFrentz without the 3pt shot. 
 
Yes, if you want to post on this board, you do need to list the reasons. Every Celtic has sucked this season, some more than others, so whether or not a player is a keeper depends on potential for growth, not performance in 2013-2014. As far as his moves go, Olynyk has a pretty good touch on the leaner, a decent mid-range face-up shot, and an occasional turnaround on the right baseline. I don't think adding a turnaround to the middle or a jump hook are beyond his developmental capacities, and I certainly wouldn't want him spending all his time at the high post like LaFrentz.
 
As far as big men developing their offensive games, McHale didn't show off his post moves much until 1983-84, when he was 26. He spent his first three seasons coming off the bench, hitting the offensive boards, and shutting down opposing forwards.
 

wutang112878

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southshoresoxfan said:
 
Because its completely and utterly absurd? Do i need to list the reasons why comparing Kelly Olynyk, who has flat out sucked this season, to one of the best players in franchise history is ridiculous?  Olynky doesn't even have a remotely passable back to the basket game, never mind one of the best in the history of the league. Arm length, touch, feel for the game.  Olynyk is Raef LaFrentz without the 3pt shot. 
 
Before you rant you might want to re-read:
 
 
A big man looking unimpressive at 25 is, well, unimpressive. A big man looking unimpressive at 22 is par for the course. It is way too early to give up on Olynyk. He has Kevin McHale length and touch inside. He certainly can't touch McHale for variety, moves, or defensive instincts, but by the time Olynyk is 25, I think he will be a real asset.
 
 
The only direct comparison to McHale was that he had his 'length' and 'touch'.  On the length we are probably arguing over a few inches of wingspan, and on the touch I havent seen enough to vehemently oppose or support that.  It was explicitly stated that the comparison wasnt based on moves or variety of moves.
 
The point was that he has a few slivers of the makeup of one of the best players ever.  Would it have been equally outlandish to say that Perk had a quiet side like the Chief?
 

Brickowski

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I'm having difficulty thinking of a comparable for Olynyk. I've seen everything from a poor man's Nowitzki or McHale, to Spencer Hawes, Brad Lohaus or Rick Robey. IMHO Olynyk is a more willing and able passer than any of those players; he was a point guard before he had a huge growth spurt. He also has post moves (he showed this in Summer league) but he's not strong enough to use them against better NBA front court players. His modest wingspan doesn't bother me, but his lack of strength does.

Whichever comparable player you select, it has to be someone who is a decent passer.
 

Kliq

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Kelly is a mix of David Lee and Ryan Anderson at his peak. He can stretch the floor like Anderson (although he will probably be never the 3pt threat that Anderson is) and he is a soft touch and good passing skills like David Lee. Like both of those players, he will probably always be a liability on defense, but hopefully he can improve enough to get substantial minutes in the rotation. 
 
100% we should have took Giannis instead of him, but Giannis was still kind of a mystery before the draft and I don't think a lot of scouts saw him as having this much of an impact this early. That doesn't mean that Olynyk can't be a quality player. Frankly, Olynyk's performance so far this year has been par for the course with most of his fellow rookies.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I really do not see the comparison.  Their length is more a difference than a comparison point---McHale has been reported to have an 8' wingspan, Olynyk's is 6-10.  I agree Olynyk has nice touch, but to date he has shown about 1% of McHale's inside touch---Olynyk is much more a jump shooter and mobile guy than a pure post-up scorer.
 
To date, I'd describe Olynyk as a face-up big man with a jump shot, unusually good mobility, and strong passing skills who has not shown much defensively either outside or in the paint; he is also regularly beaten physically.  McHale was a low-post big man with incredible moves (he had his 'pumpkin' turnaround move from his rookie year, and added to it as his career went along), exceptional length, strong defensive skills including both man defense and help d shotblocking who was strong (for his era) and a strong rebounder.   McHale became a solid passer but didn't really start that way; he had no jumper at all until late in his career.  
 
Personally, I think Olynyk has some interesting potential but do not think he is much like McHale at this point, or likely to develop the same way....I see very different strengths, builds, and games.   If I were going to compare him to a big guy I'd think the good-do is maybe a jr. Tom Gugliotta or (offensively) some Vlade Divac (not the defense or rebounding), with the more likely offensive game as a little better version of John Salley (adding range).  And any of those would make me happy...I'm a fan of the skills, though he clearly needs a lot more development
 

Brickowski

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I'm happy if he continues to play as well as he did yesterday, and improves upon that with time. He was very effective, in part because the Kings didn't pay enough attention to him, but also because he made good decisions.
 

nighthob

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wutang112878 said:
Before you rant you might want to re-read:
 
 
The only direct comparison to McHale was that he had his 'length' and 'touch'.  On the length we are probably arguing over a few inches of wingspan, and on the touch I havent seen enough to vehemently oppose or support that.  It was explicitly stated that the comparison wasnt based on moves or variety of moves.
 
The point was that he has a few slivers of the makeup of one of the best players ever.  Would it have been equally outlandish to say that Perk had a quiet side like the Chief?
McHale's arms were longer than Kelly Olynyk himself. Pretty much the similarities between them are that they're both white and tall.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Brickowski said:
I'm having difficulty thinking of a comparable for Olynyk. I've seen everything from a poor man's Nowitzki or McHale, to Spencer Hawes, Brad Lohaus or Rick Robey.
 
This, for no other reason, is why the jury is still out for Olynyk.  Unlike Hawes, Lohaus, or Robey, he does have something of an offensive game.  It's clear that his court vision is a plus; also, while he doesn't have great foot speed, he does have an ability to figure out how to get some open space.  Problem is that open space goes away much more quickly in the NBA than college
 
To me, it's just a question whether he can figure out how to deal with the NBA.  I think he does.  It won't be right away, and may not be while he is with the Cs, but I think he will have a long career in the NBA.  Possibly not a great career but I think he will be somewhat productive nonetheless.
 

radsoxfan

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I think the best case scenario for Olynyk is a Mehmet Okur-like career. Maybe Kelly is a slightly better passer, but I still think generally that type of player would be the hope.
 
I love Sprowl's posts, but have to admit I see nothing currently or in the future that might link Olynyk's career with McHale.  For me, they're completely different players in just about every way. 
 

Brickowski

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I thought of Okur, but Olynyk is a much better passer than Okur, not slightly better. Maybe he'll become Okur with the passing skills of Vlade Divac, although both Divac and Okur had a much more powerful post presence on defense. Once again, Olynyk needs to get into the weight room and improve his strength, much as Kendrick Perkins did.
 

radsoxfan

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Olynyk makes a nice pass occasionally, and seems to see the floor decently for a big man.  But let's not get carried away, he's no passing savant, and he's averaging less than 2 assists per game.  I agree his passing is probably better than Okur's was, but it's not a major factor in determining his overall value. 
 
For what it's worth, if Olynyk becomes Okur, that would be a great outcome.  Much more likely he ends up significantly worse. I could easily see him out of the league in a few years.
 

Brickowski

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For his career, Okur averaged 2 assists per 36 minutes. Olynyk will easily average twice that. Or 3 times that. Don't get me wrong: like you I've been disappointed in his play. But the potential is there.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Olynyk has a better chance of popping up in my rec league then he does being the next Mehmet Okur. Okur was a somewhat useful player in his prime, decent defensive big with a nice top of the key 3pt shot.  I just dont see it with Olynyk.  The eye test is huge for me w bigs, if they look awkward and clumsy in their movements, they usually do not succeed at this level.
 
The same reason i'm down on Olynyk is why i was never low on Sully.  His footwork and smoothness is impeccable.  Embiid's smoothness is ridiculous, which is one of the many reasons i think he will be a superstar in this league.
 
Let's be fair with KO tho...he was the 13th pick in a somewhat depressed draft class.  Let's hope he can be a 7-9th man on a decent team in a cpl years. I hope I'm wrong but i just do not see it.
 

radsoxfan

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southshoresoxfan said:
Olynyk has a better chance of popping up in my rec league then he does being the next Mehmet Okur. Okur was a somewhat useful player in his prime, decent defensive big with a nice top of the key 3pt shot.  I just dont see it with Olynyk.  The eye test is huge for me w bigs, if they look awkward and clumsy in their movements, they usually do not succeed at this level.
 
 
I don't think saying someone's upside is Mehmet Okur is being very optimistic.  That's the absolute best case scenario.  
 
I agree that Olynyk has not looked very good, and I'm not expecting much.  Okur just seems like the type of player he would be if everything falls just right.
 

luckiestman

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Olynyk somehow looked great against the Kings. He looked even better than the night he had over twenty points. It really seemed like he was playing with an edge instead of playing like a scared kid.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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southshoresoxfan said:
Olynyk has a better chance of popping up in my rec league then he does being the next Mehmet Okur. Okur was a somewhat useful player in his prime, decent defensive big with a nice top of the key 3pt shot.  I just dont see it with Olynyk.  The eye test is huge for me w bigs, if they look awkward and clumsy in their movements, they usually do not succeed at this level.
 
You really think Olynyk is awkward and clumsy?  That's interesting because I see him as relatively fluid in his motions for a 7-footer, but understandin that he does not have great quickness or agility.
 
Here's a recent article that includes KO's shot chart - http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/1/27/5348056/kelly-olynyk-celtics-rookie.  I think there is a lot of room for optimism - good touch around the basket; shooting 40% from the right elbow 3-pointer, which is a harder shot than straight on or in the corner; 62% from the top of the key.
 
Quite frankly, KO has in the past demonstrated the potential to have an offensive game that not many 7-footers have had.  I'm not going to post any weird scouting comparisons or first year stat comparisons, but KO needs some time to adjust to the NBA game.  If he can't adjust then he will be a bust.  But it's certainly not impossible that he will make the necessary adjustments to the NBA game and become a solid contributor.
 
I will note that we were having this same discussion about Avery Bradley in the initial portions of his career.
 

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I'm with WBCD on this one  -  he's neither awkward nor clumsy, he's just not as strong or quick as his competition.  With discipline, he can put on some more muscle.  That won't make him quicker, but it will help him on defense and on the boards.  He won't be in anyone's rec league any time soon.  The question is whether his pro career will play out in the NBA or elsewhere.  
 

Devizier

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southshoresoxfan said:
Let's be fair with KO tho...he was the 13th pick in a somewhat depressed draft class.  Let's hope he can be a 7-9th man on a decent team in a cpl years. I hope I'm wrong but i just do not see it.
 
I actually think this class has the chance to be the worst of all time, defeating the vaunted Stromile Swift class of '00.
 
ETA: If we're going to put serious predictions here, I'm thinking Olynyk's best case scenario is Danny Ferry.
 

JakeRae

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I'm in the boat that doesn't see Olynyk as awkward or clumsy. Right now, he is not strong enough for the 5 and not quick enough for the 4. The latter won't change but the former can.

Something to keep in mind with Olynyk is that he didn't really start to focus on being an effective big until his redshirted junior year. He basically had one college season at his current position prior to being drafted. Raw is not the right descriptor for him as he has well developed perimeter skills, but his interior skills are still developing just as his physique is. We all need to give him time. One of the great things about being bad is that you don't need to stress about the time it takes to see if young players develop.
 

nighthob

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Devizier said:
If we're going to put serious predictions here, I'm thinking Olynyk's best case scenario is Danny Ferry.
You mean you think that some team will mortgage their future to trade for him and he'll return there 15 years later to run the team into the ground as general manager? Can we trade him to the Lakers‽‽‽
 

JakeRae

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Devizier said:
Carroll and Lou Williams' shitty contract works, and the Celtics can use Lou as expiring money next season.
Brand and Carroll also works and gets them an expiring this year instead. Any of the Hawks young players could easily be added to either of these options.



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JakeRae

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Rudy Pemberton said:
Carroll is a month older than Green. Doesn't seem like a move that really does much for the C's present or future.
It gets them out of paying Green for the next 2 years. Ideally, there would be either one of the Hawks recent 1sts, if Ainge thinks either of them has value, or a 1st rounder coming back as well, but I'd probably pull the trigger for just the financial savings. Green is not going to help this team become a contender again.
 

Brickowski

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IMHO it's not worth it unless the Hawks also give up their swap rights to the 2014 Nets pick that the Celtics now own.

Carroll and Brand's expiring. That's it (works on the RealGM checker). No reason to take on Lou Williams' two year deal.
 

JakeRae

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Brickowski said:
IMHO it's not worth it unless the Hawks also give up their swap rights to the 2014 Nets pick that the Celtics now own.

Carroll and Brand's expiring. That's it (works on the RealGM checker). No reason to take on Lou Williams' two year deal.
 
This is too absolute. Brand's contract is more desirable. But, both sides know this. If the Celtics are taking back Williams, they are going to get something of greater value than if they get Brand. What the Hawks are willing to give up determines which deal you take. Also, Ainge may still be largely focused on cap room in a year rather than this offseason. If that is the case, the value difference for the Celtics might be fairly negligible. 
 

Brickowski

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This is a pretty good deal for Atlanta as is. IMHO Ainge could do better shopping Green elsewhere if he also has to take on Lou Williams.
 

radsoxfan

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Brickowski said:
This is a pretty good deal for Atlanta as is. IMHO Ainge could do better shopping Green elsewhere if he also has to take on Lou Williams.
 
Maybe I'm in the minority, but I don't think taking on Williams is a burden at all.  He tore his ACL the same month as Rondo, and has predictably struggled so far in his return.  I don't know how bad the medicals are, but assuming it's just a standard ACL tear and nothing else, I think he should be OK in the long run.
 
Williams is on a reasonable contract, basically the same money as Courtney Lee for 1 less year.  And before his injury he was a very good scorer in the league.  I'd have no problem at all taking on Williams. He's a pretty good player when healthy, and very fairly paid in my opinion. He will be MUCH better than Bayless as a scoring guard off the bench once he gets his legs back. 
 

JakeRae

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Brickowski said:
This is a pretty good deal for Atlanta as is. IMHO Ainge could do better shopping Green elsewhere if he also has to take on Lou Williams.
What is a pretty good deal? You don't know enough to make this statement because there aren't any rumors covering what the discussed deal really looks like. Green for Carroll+ leaves so much room for what other pieces are involved so as to make it impossible to judge. 
 
Also, Ainge is presumably shopping Green everywhere. Unless there is a rumor of a better deal out there, it's pretty hard to say he could get better value elsewhere. If a deal gets reached, it would be fair to question if he got a fair return, but that is distinct from claiming that someone else would have given up more. Almost definitionally, they would not have. (There are situations where a player gets traded abruptly without an extensive shopping period where questioning whether another team would've given up greater value is reasonable. This is not one of those situations.)
 

Grin&MartyBarret

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I'd jump at Carroll and Brand for Green if I were Ainge. Carroll's having a nice little season at a very affordable rate, and would give the C's improved production in a lot of areas at a quarter of the cost.
 

moondog80

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Brickowski said:
IMHO it's not worth it unless the Hawks also give up their swap rights to the 2014 Nets pick that the Celtics now own.

 
This likely won't be a big deal.   Brooklyn is only 2.5 games back from Atlanta and the gap is closing. 
 

nighthob

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That's not a bad thing, though. Because Atnalta might be amenable to tossing in the extra #1 as it's only a mid first.
 

mcpickl

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Not that it matters much since it's a garbage rumor, but it's likely from a twitter account that isn't really Mitch Lawrence.
 
Unverified, less than 400 followers and has never linked to his own articles?
 
Seems like a real longshot it's actually his account.
 

The X Man Cometh

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You guys see the deal Ainge got Chris Jonson on? 4 years and all three pending ones are nonguaranteed. Basically indentured servitude.
 

The X Man Cometh

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TheRooster said:
except for the 6 figure salary of course
 
Everyone in the NBA gets six figs.
 
2013-14: $320K
2014-15: $915K (non-guaranteed)
2015-16: $981K (non-guaranteed)
2016-17: $1.1 million (non-guaranteed)
 
That's incredibly good for the Cs.
 
If he plays like a scrub, he gets what is essentially scrub money, so its not even a big deal. Replacing an end of bench guy with a warm body costs something in that 400k-800k ballpark regardless. And if we don't want to even pay him that, we can just dump him with no consequence.
 
And? If he plays decent, and turns into some kind of MLE type shooting specialist, we get to have him around on scrub money. Which would make him very tradeable and a useful minor asset. Its a big win-win situation for the Celtics.
 

radsoxfan

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The X Man Cometh said:
 
And? If he plays decent, and turns into some kind of MLE type shooting specialist, we get to have him around on scrub money. Which would make him very tradeable and a useful minor asset. Its a big win-win situation for the Celtics.
 
 
And it's a big win for Chris Johnson.  He was undrafted and stuck in the D-league until Danny scooped him up.  You get team friendly terms when there is no demand for your services.
 
I agree the contract is good for the Celtics, but it's not really different than many 2nd round picks or undrafted free agents.  Look at Pressey's deal, it's exactly the same (except he has 1 less year of service time so the yearly salaries are marginally less).
 

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I didn't expect Johnson to get guaranteed money next year, but I'm surprised he had to accept 3 unguaranteed years. He's got some Jimmy Butler upside to him, as a steals/threes guy.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Its perfect for the celtics. Guys who can step in and give you 5-10 mpg with a 3pt shot are well worth the lg minimum. Good for them, and good for the kid for getting a nice raise. Hell likely be on the roster next year unless danny pulls a 07 type rabbit out of the hat
 

Brickowski

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Its perfect for the celtics. Guys who can step in and give you 5-10 mpg with a 3pt shot are well worth the lg minimum. Good for them, and good for the kid for getting a nice raise. Hell likely be on the roster next year unless danny pulls a 07 type rabbit out of the hat
IMHO he's going to be more than a 10 mpg player. He's better than that. His contract also makes him a very nice sweetener in a trade, if Ainge wants to go that route.
 

Devizier

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Let's take bets on who gets traded this year.
 
I'm going with Bass and Humphries, that's it.
 
Lot of smoke around Green, but he ends up not getting dealt becasue he's not good enough for a palatable return (crappier player with similar contract and a couple of bundled draft picks would qualify), nor bad enough for a straight dump.
 

Brickowski

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Let's take bets on who gets traded this year.
 
I'm going with Bass and Humphries, that's it.
Yes, and I think the most likely destination is Phoenix in exchange for Okafor and a pick or two. Golden State is allegedly interested in Bass, but the Celtics need Speights like a fish needs a bicycle.
 

thehitcat

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Bass only I think because while he might want to deal Green the offers will either be not enough talent wise in Danny's eyes or they'll be pure salary dumps (Green and Wallace for a conditional 2nd in 2020 for example) and Danny won't want to do that.  Also I think Humphries sticks unless he gets a good offer for him because I can see Danny signing him again for 1 more year at a similar salary to his current in order to hang onto the slot (which he doesn't need this summer but might at the end of 2014-15.)
 

wutang112878

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thehitcat said:
or they'll be pure salary dumps (Green and Wallace for a conditional 2nd in 2020 for example) and Danny won't want to do that.  
 
I'd do that in a hearbeat.  Granted I would prefer to get something for Green, but if that something is just getting out of Wallace's deal thats pretty awesome to me.