I wind up defending almost every borderline Belichick decision, and for once I think it was almost definitively the wrong choice. Given that Folk ultimately had the distance, I was less angry after the miss than I was concerned when he lined up, but to me it was a far worse decision than not going for it to end the half.
It's been said already, but looking at every factor:
- Folk is hurtish
- Folk hasn't hit from that distance in a decade
- It was pouring, and one would think that level of rain is more likely to affect a long kick than a short pass
- The Bucs would have had almost a full minute and 2 time outs to go 50 yards in 4 down territory
I think there is a decent chance Mac would have gotten clobbered, or the pass batted down, or a good pass dropped...but comparing these two options, I take B every time:
- A) Kick a 56 yarder in the rain with an accurate but low strength kicker then stop the Bucs from getting into field goal territory
- B) Pick up 3 yards, then milk the clock as you pick up 10-15 more yards to put it in Folk's wheelhouse and kick roughly as time expires
I thought the coaching staff pitched an almost perfect game last night - the defense played fantastically on the scariest WR trio in the league and McDaniels called some of his best drives in literal years - but I think kicking there was objectively wrong unless you think Mac would crumble if he blows it, which doesn't at all fit with what we've seen from him (and would be a problem in its own right).
If you could guarantee that you pick up another 10-15 more yards then the calculation makes sense. Here were the last 8 actual pass attempts by Mac though (not counting penalties):
- Incomplete short left to Smith
- Incomplete short middle to Smith
- Complete short right to Bolden for 0 yards
- Complete short middle to Henry for 9 yards
- Complete short right to Bolden for 7 yards
- Incomplete short right to Meyers
- Complete short left to Meyers for 7 yards
- Incomplete short right to Meyers
So in his last 8 actual pass attempts, he went 4-8 for 23 yards. Four incompletions.
In that 4th down situation, if I'm Tampa, I'm playing press coverage and sending the house and making him get rid of the ball in 2 seconds, not worrying about anything deep. Sure, they could get burned that way, but there's very little chance that Belichick or Mac would try a deep ball in that situation. So I am not at all confident that they'd have gotten the first down. But even if they had, they hadn't shown much so I'm not sure they'd have picked up those additional yards. And even if they had, we're still talking about a long (though obviously not AS long) field goal attempt.
So again, in order for going for it to be the right move, the Pats would have had to (1) convert a 50/50 fourth down attempt, (2) not go backward on a sack or penalty, and (3) make a long field goal anyway (Folk is, career, 72.8% from 40-49).
I think this is just one of those things that could go either way and it's crazy for anyone to crucify BB over this call. (not that you're doing that, but some are)