2 mil more AAV than Rick Porcello.Morosi says it is 5 years $110 million.
Yeah, outstanding deal when compared to one like Porcello's.2 mil more AAV than Rick Porcello.
I'd call that a deal.
Those people were pretty foolish then. Porcello only had an ERA+ as high as Zimmermann's 2015 one time over the last six years.That's about market price for a #2 starter.
His numbers were about what people were projecting from Porcello.
He can only disappoint? What if he pitches as he has for his whole career and we challenge for the World Series every year?I am dreading the Pricey era, because expectations are so high he can only disappoint.
Then we can only be disappointed for JWH's bank accountHe can only disappoint? What if he pitches as he has for his whole career and we challenge for the World Series every year?
Agreed. Ben making the gigantic reach he did there on that extension really doesn't make for a solid comp here. A closer/better comparison (imo) would be the Lester contract, with an accompanying acknowledgement that Boston would likely have had to pay more to get this particular deal done.Those people were pretty foolish then. Porcello only had an ERA+ as high as Zimmermann's 2015 one time over the last six years.
From your lips to God's ears, as my mother used to say. I just don't see that happening and you do.He can only disappoint? What if he pitches as he has for his whole career and we challenge for the World Series every year?
No, i think it could and you think it can't. That's a big difference.From your lips to God's ears, as my mother used to say.
I just don't see that happening and you do.
I just don't understand the rationale that Price is suddenly going to be a 4+ ERA once he signs with us.No, i think it could and you think it can't. That's a big difference.
There's a hintI just don't understand the rationale that Price is suddenly going to be a 4+ ERA once he signs with us.
It's not unheard of to a Free Agent acquisition vastly underperform their career numbers.I just don't understand the rationale that Price is suddenly going to be a 4+ ERA once he signs with us.
John Lackey comes to mind, if we just want to look at Red Sox examples. Sported a career 3.81 ERA with 5 straight season under 4.00 when he was signed, then promptly put up a 4.40 and a 6.60. Granted, he was hurt through most of that, but no pitchers comes with a guarantee of good health, even guys with track records of good health. Speaking of seemingly healthy pitchers, Matt Clement had 6 straight seasons of never missing a start (30+ per year) before he signed, and his shoulder imploded less than halfway through the deal.It's not unheard of to a Free Agent acquisition vastly underperform their career numbers.
I'm not saying there wasn't some wishcasting based on Porcello's GB% and xFIP. I am, however, not optimistic that Zimmermann is a lock to nail down a sub 3.5 ERA in the AL. The middling k-rate coupled with a high flyball % could get ugly if balls start leaving the park.Those people were pretty foolish then. Porcello only had an ERA+ as high as Zimmermann's 2015 one time over the last six years.
Absolutely and I'm guessing you left off Carl Crawford because he isn't a pitcher but Carl Fucking Crawford.John Lackey comes to mind, if we just want to look at Red Sox examples.
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Perhaps. I just think that Zimmermann's "bad" for him season last year is probably Porcello's ceiling. They aren't all that comparable.I'm not saying there wasn't some wishcasting based on Porcello's GB% and xFIP. I am, however, not optimistic that Zimmermann is a lock to nail down a sub 3.5 ERA in the AL. The middling k-rate coupled with a high flyball % could get ugly if balls start leaving the park.
No, i think it could and you think it can't. That's a big difference.
The length and the amount that DP will undoubtedly require set a high standard. He doesn't have to hit 4+ ERA in his first or second year to eventually disappoint expectations. If the Sox reach the post-season and his p-s performances suck, that will not be good. If that opinion is irrational-----time will tell.I just don't understand the rationale that Price is suddenly going to be a 4+ ERA once he signs with us.
I don't believe this, I think projecting career NL pitchers moving to the AL is very hard to do. Some NL pitchers can make the jump but I don't think it's so easy.Perhaps. I just think that Zimmermann's "bad" for him season last year is probably Porcello's ceiling.
Wouldn't that be true of almost any pitcher over a five year period?Keith Law writes of Jordan Zimmermann's big contract with the Tigers: "Zimmermann was worse across the board in 2015 and now has 1,000-plus innings on that new ligament; any realistic projection going out five years would show some significant probability of one of two things -- major injury or major loss of effectiveness -- happening before the contract ends."
It's only referencing pitchers that have had TJ surgery. What's the track record for longevity with TJ surgery? If this list is accurate (and it looks like it) should be, then there are only a few pitchers that have had TJ surgery before him and are still in the game including Liriano and Hudson(with more innings pitched than JZ since), Brackman, and Jaime Garcia. I may have missed someone on that list.Wouldn't that be true of almost any pitcher over a five year period?
Of course, but that's not a reason to expect them to underperform upon signing a deal.It's not unheard of to a Free Agent acquisition vastly underperform their career numbers.
Of course, no one suggested they expect him to under-perform upon signing the deal, nor that any potential under-performance will come immediately. At least not until you came in talking about sudden 4+ ERA performances. I only read ITP suggesting Price likely will be a disappointment. As I said earlier, there are folks who will find a 3.50 ERA over the course of the contract a disappointment if it isn't accompanied by a ring or two. Bigger the contract, bigger the expectations, easier it is to disappoint with even an otherwise good performance. I think that's all that was being suggested.Of course, but that's not a reason to expect them to underperform upon signing a deal.
xFIP Ages 23, 24, 25:Perhaps. I just think that Zimmermann's "bad" for him season last year is probably Porcello's ceiling. They aren't all that comparable.
We haven't, but it's something we've been looking at. If we find something new to say on the subject, we'll write about it.It's only referencing pitchers that have had TJ surgery. What's the track record for longevity with TJ surgery? If this list is accurate (and it looks like it) should be, then there are only a few pitchers that have had TJ surgery before him and are still in the game including Liriano and Hudson(with more innings pitched than JZ since), Brackman, and Jaime Garcia. I may have missed someone on that list.
Has the .com written about this yet?
He is only 27 and in 2014, he had a lower ERA than FIP/xFIP predicted.Who cares how Porcello performs by FIP or xFIP when he consistently under-performs those numbers in on-the-field results?
The basics behind xFIP and FIP are that in very large data sets, the background noise and various skill evens out. What gets people in trouble is when they assume the background noise is going to even out for an individual pitcher.He is only 27 and in 2014, he had a higher ERA than FIP/xFIP predicted.
In all events, regardless of quibbling with the word "consistent," the way you under perform your xFIP is when you cluster hits or allowed higher percentage of HRs with MOB then expected. Given that LOB% has a very weak y-t-y correlation, my expectation for any pitcher is that we should expect them to have a similar LOB% as one would predict given their component stats - obviously, Kershaw will have a higher LOB% because he just gets a higher percentage of people out in all situations. But, we should expect Porcello's LOB% to be roughly similar to people who have a 3 or 4:1 SO/BB ratio with a 47-50% GB%.
However, I'm responding to the idea that it would be "foolish" to think that Porcello is a worse bet (or certainly was at the time he signed his extension) than Zimmermann so even if you disagree with the above argument, its hard to think that is is "foolish." I can certainly see an argument that says that while most pitchers do not cluster hits significant different than their component stats would suggest, Porcello is the exception. But it would also not be "foolish" to suggest that given his SO/BB ratio, his historically good GB%, and his age that Porcello is the better bet going forward.
FIP can be made more predictive by comparing it against a pitcher's career BABIP.The basics behind xFIP and FIP are that in very large data sets, the background noise and various skill evens out. What gets people in trouble is when they assume the background noise is going to even out for an individual pitcher.
If you dig into the peripherals, you will see that his rookie year he was blessed with a .,277 BABIP. I say blessed because he has not had nearly that result in subsequent years.
There is a presumption that everything inside of error bars is noise, but it's not. It has been observed that FIP and xFIP track year to year only about as well as ERA and aren't any better at predicting the future than e.g. Marcel. How this relates to Zimmerman of course is up for debate, but the reason I made the somewhat glib comment is about using xFIP as a proxy for actual results on the field.
No one really knows. Zimmerman settled for a pretty low contract but he's just one person who possibly really wanted a Midwestern team. Are the number of good pitchers going to lower the contract offers? I think we'll know a lot more after the next big ticket starter signs.Does this set the contract for the other top tier guys? Does this mean Cueto will settle for an AAV in the $22m range but maybe with one or two more years? Is Price really worth $8m/year and an extra year or two?
I was amused by all the folks (many of them Nats fans) arguing that "he never said that" or "that is just a rumor". I was fairly sure that "rumor" had a basis in fact (perhaps the Nats GM let it slip in an interview or something) and that he would sign with a "competitive" Midwest team, meaning either the Cubs, Tigers or Cards, and sure enough....He wanted to go back to the Midwest.
Hey, I posted this "rumor" on Sosh about a month or more ago and most pooh-poohed it, saying players go for the most money, always. No, not always.I was amused by all the folks (many of them Nats fans) arguing that "he never said that" or "that is just a rumor". I was fairly sure that "rumor" had a basis in fact (perhaps the Nats GM let it slip in an interview or something) and that he would sign with a "competitive" Midwest team, meaning either the Cubs, Tigers or Cards, and sure enough....
Color me less disappointed than I was 3 days ago.Color me disappointed that Zimmerman is the first one off the board. Was hoping he might be a nice landing spot If the Sox miss out on Price or Greinke.