Tigers sign Jordan Zimmermann

LesterFan

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I think that's a pretty solid deal for the Tigers. Zimmermann isn't an ace but he's been a pretty consistent 2/3 and if they indeed got him for only 5 years I'd call it a win for the Tigers.
 

snowmanny

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Fangraphs crowdsourcing and MLBTR both predicted 6/126, so this is right in that ballpark.
 

InsideTheParker

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This is the first really discouraging news this off-season for me. I thought Z. would be a good addition to our staff, which was looking not so bad by the end of the year. I am dreading the Pricey era, because expectations are so high he can only disappoint.
 

MikeM

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Those people were pretty foolish then. Porcello only had an ERA+ as high as Zimmermann's 2015 one time over the last six years.
Agreed. Ben making the gigantic reach he did there on that extension really doesn't make for a solid comp here. A closer/better comparison (imo) would be the Lester contract, with an accompanying acknowledgement that Boston would likely have had to pay more to get this particular deal done.

All in all it's a pretty solid deal for Detroit, which probably ends up looking like "the most reasonable" FA deal on a higher end starter that gets handed out this winter. Especially if Cueto goes on to get 6.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It's not unheard of to a Free Agent acquisition vastly underperform their career numbers.
John Lackey comes to mind, if we just want to look at Red Sox examples. Sported a career 3.81 ERA with 5 straight season under 4.00 when he was signed, then promptly put up a 4.40 and a 6.60. Granted, he was hurt through most of that, but no pitchers comes with a guarantee of good health, even guys with track records of good health. Speaking of seemingly healthy pitchers, Matt Clement had 6 straight seasons of never missing a start (30+ per year) before he signed, and his shoulder imploded less than halfway through the deal.

Of course that tells us nothing of how Price or Greinke or Cueto could work out for whatever team signs them, but given the increased price tag they come with, the level of concern that they'll be average/good but underwhelming versus high expectations is equally increased. I don't really think anyone has suggested that Price will "be a 4+ ERA" after he signs, but he well could be a 3.50 ERA guy who doesn't fulfill the promise of the mythical "ACE" that will lead the team to a title or three.
 

foulkehampshire

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Those people were pretty foolish then. Porcello only had an ERA+ as high as Zimmermann's 2015 one time over the last six years.
I'm not saying there wasn't some wishcasting based on Porcello's GB% and xFIP. I am, however, not optimistic that Zimmermann is a lock to nail down a sub 3.5 ERA in the AL. The middling k-rate coupled with a high flyball % could get ugly if balls start leaving the park.
 

Wingack

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I'm not saying there wasn't some wishcasting based on Porcello's GB% and xFIP. I am, however, not optimistic that Zimmermann is a lock to nail down a sub 3.5 ERA in the AL. The middling k-rate coupled with a high flyball % could get ugly if balls start leaving the park.
Perhaps. I just think that Zimmermann's "bad" for him season last year is probably Porcello's ceiling. They aren't all that comparable.
 

InsideTheParker

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No, i think it could and you think it can't. That's a big difference.
I just don't understand the rationale that Price is suddenly going to be a 4+ ERA once he signs with us.
The length and the amount that DP will undoubtedly require set a high standard. He doesn't have to hit 4+ ERA in his first or second year to eventually disappoint expectations. If the Sox reach the post-season and his p-s performances suck, that will not be good. If that opinion is irrational-----time will tell.
 

jon abbey

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Perhaps. I just think that Zimmermann's "bad" for him season last year is probably Porcello's ceiling.
I don't believe this, I think projecting career NL pitchers moving to the AL is very hard to do. Some NL pitchers can make the jump but I don't think it's so easy.
 
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E5 Yaz

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Keith Law writes of Jordan Zimmermann's big contract with the Tigers: "Zimmermann was worse across the board in 2015 and now has 1,000-plus innings on that new ligament; any realistic projection going out five years would show some significant probability of one of two things -- major injury or major loss of effectiveness -- happening before the contract ends."
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Keith Law writes of Jordan Zimmermann's big contract with the Tigers: "Zimmermann was worse across the board in 2015 and now has 1,000-plus innings on that new ligament; any realistic projection going out five years would show some significant probability of one of two things -- major injury or major loss of effectiveness -- happening before the contract ends."
Wouldn't that be true of almost any pitcher over a five year period?
 

kelpapa

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Wouldn't that be true of almost any pitcher over a five year period?
It's only referencing pitchers that have had TJ surgery. What's the track record for longevity with TJ surgery? If this list is accurate (and it looks like it) should be, then there are only a few pitchers that have had TJ surgery before him and are still in the game including Liriano and Hudson(with more innings pitched than JZ since), Brackman, and Jaime Garcia. I may have missed someone on that list.

Has the .com written about this yet?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Of course, but that's not a reason to expect them to underperform upon signing a deal.
Of course, no one suggested they expect him to under-perform upon signing the deal, nor that any potential under-performance will come immediately. At least not until you came in talking about sudden 4+ ERA performances. I only read ITP suggesting Price likely will be a disappointment. As I said earlier, there are folks who will find a 3.50 ERA over the course of the contract a disappointment if it isn't accompanied by a ring or two. Bigger the contract, bigger the expectations, easier it is to disappoint with even an otherwise good performance. I think that's all that was being suggested.
 

Joshv02

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Perhaps. I just think that Zimmermann's "bad" for him season last year is probably Porcello's ceiling. They aren't all that comparable.
xFIP Ages 23, 24, 25:
Porcello: 3.89, 3.19, 3.68 -- wtd average: 3.55
Zimmermann: 3.92 (31 IP), 3.78, 3.78 -- wtd average: 3.80

Ages 26:
Porcello: 3.72
Zimmermann: 3.48

My money is still on Porcello having the better (measured by xFIP or fWAR) next five years.
 
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Darnell's Son

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We've got the Zimmermann pickup covered at the .com.


It's only referencing pitchers that have had TJ surgery. What's the track record for longevity with TJ surgery? If this list is accurate (and it looks like it) should be, then there are only a few pitchers that have had TJ surgery before him and are still in the game including Liriano and Hudson(with more innings pitched than JZ since), Brackman, and Jaime Garcia. I may have missed someone on that list.

Has the .com written about this yet?
We haven't, but it's something we've been looking at. If we find something new to say on the subject, we'll write about it.
 

smastroyin

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Who cares how Porcello performs by FIP or xFIP when he consistently under-performs those numbers in on-the-field results?
 

Joshv02

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Who cares how Porcello performs by FIP or xFIP when he consistently under-performs those numbers in on-the-field results?
He is only 27 and in 2014, he had a lower ERA than FIP/xFIP predicted.
In all events, regardless of quibbling with the word "consistent," the way you under perform your xFIP is when you cluster hits or allowed higher percentage of HRs with MOB then expected. Given that LOB% has a very weak y-t-y correlation, my expectation for any pitcher is that we should expect them to have a similar LOB% as one would predict given their component stats - obviously, Kershaw will have a higher LOB% because he just gets a higher percentage of people out in all situations. But, we should expect Porcello's LOB% to be roughly similar to people who have a 3 or 4:1 SO/BB ratio with a 47-50% GB%.

However, I'm responding to the idea that it would be "foolish" to think that Porcello is a worse bet (or certainly was at the time he signed his extension) than Zimmermann so even if you disagree with the above argument, its hard to think that is is "foolish." I can certainly see an argument that says that while most pitchers do not cluster hits significant different than their component stats would suggest, Porcello is the exception. But it would also not be "foolish" to suggest that given his SO/BB ratio, his historically good GB%, and his age that Porcello is the better bet going forward.
 
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Snodgrass'Muff

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And that's before considering this frightening drop in velocity.


Hat tip to @Manramsclan for posting it first. I'd take Porcello on his remaining contract over Zimmermann for what he just signed. That's not to say that it's a slam dunk. But if I was putting money on which pitcher would be worth more to their teams over their remaining contracts, I'd bet on Porcello if for no other reason than I expect him to be on the field much more.

It's certainly reasonable to go the other way, and if Zimmermann's drop in velocity is not a sign of impending injury but is just the wearing down of his arm as he ages, he very well could be the better pitcher going forward. I'm pretty sure his best days are behind him, however, and I'm still hopeful Porcello's best are yet to come.
 
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smastroyin

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He is only 27 and in 2014, he had a higher ERA than FIP/xFIP predicted.
In all events, regardless of quibbling with the word "consistent," the way you under perform your xFIP is when you cluster hits or allowed higher percentage of HRs with MOB then expected. Given that LOB% has a very weak y-t-y correlation, my expectation for any pitcher is that we should expect them to have a similar LOB% as one would predict given their component stats - obviously, Kershaw will have a higher LOB% because he just gets a higher percentage of people out in all situations. But, we should expect Porcello's LOB% to be roughly similar to people who have a 3 or 4:1 SO/BB ratio with a 47-50% GB%.

However, I'm responding to the idea that it would be "foolish" to think that Porcello is a worse bet (or certainly was at the time he signed his extension) than Zimmermann so even if you disagree with the above argument, its hard to think that is is "foolish." I can certainly see an argument that says that while most pitchers do not cluster hits significant different than their component stats would suggest, Porcello is the exception. But it would also not be "foolish" to suggest that given his SO/BB ratio, his historically good GB%, and his age that Porcello is the better bet going forward.
The basics behind xFIP and FIP are that in very large data sets, the background noise and various skill evens out. What gets people in trouble is when they assume the background noise is going to even out for an individual pitcher.

His ERA-FIP by year: -.81, +.61, +.69, +.68, +.79, -.24, +.79
His ERA-xFIP by year: -.31, +.68, +.73, +.70, +1.13, -.25, +1.20

If you dig into the peripherals, you will see that his rookie year he was blessed with a .,277 BABIP. I say blessed because he has not had nearly that result in subsequent years. Now, you can believe that these numbers aren't predictive, but if you don't see a generally negative pattern with a big outlier in 2014 in terms of how Porcello's peripherals translate into on-field success at preventing runs, then I don't know what to tell you. Yes, there are systemic issues such as fielding and bullpen, but other Red Sox and Tiger starters don't have these kinds of numbers. So Porcello may be more prone to clustering or other effects than other pitchers, and that counts against him. He may have a tendency to have a high HR/FB% and that also counts against him.

There is a presumption that everything inside of error bars is noise, but it's not. It has been observed that FIP and xFIP track year to year only about as well as ERA and aren't any better at predicting the future than e.g. Marcel. There is a bunch of work on this by Matt Swartz at FG, but he is a huge fan of SIERA so maybe comes with that bias. Regardless, a quick conclusion that you can come to in knowing only that fact is that FIP and xFIP don't really do a better job of separating luck from skill, they have only moved where the skill is measured.

I want as much as anyone for Porcello to be a successful pitcher as a Boston Red Sox, but I bristle really strongly at the idea that he is that successful pitcher if he merely continues his FIP and xFIP trend. What matters are (team) wins and losses, and those are determined by the actual results, not the predicted results. How this relates to Zimmerman of course is up for debate, but the reason I made the somewhat glib comment is about using xFIP as a proxy for actual results on the field.
 
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Minneapolis Millers

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Back to the signing for a moment, it's interesting to see the Tigers ultimately pass on resigning Scherzer last year only to dip back in to the high end FA market this year, for a lesser SP. But they did save $100M or so (w/o calculating the value of Scherzer's deferred money) in the exchange. Was that wise? Time will tell.

Boston finds itself in a similar position, having let Lester slip away last year only to be looking for a new "ace" this year. Assuming they get one, they won't be saving $100M on the swap unless they get the SP through a trade (in which case they're just exchanging mL resources for $$$).
 

jk333

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The basics behind xFIP and FIP are that in very large data sets, the background noise and various skill evens out. What gets people in trouble is when they assume the background noise is going to even out for an individual pitcher.
If you dig into the peripherals, you will see that his rookie year he was blessed with a .,277 BABIP. I say blessed because he has not had nearly that result in subsequent years.

There is a presumption that everything inside of error bars is noise, but it's not. It has been observed that FIP and xFIP track year to year only about as well as ERA and aren't any better at predicting the future than e.g. Marcel. How this relates to Zimmerman of course is up for debate, but the reason I made the somewhat glib comment is about using xFIP as a proxy for actual results on the field.
FIP can be made more predictive by comparing it against a pitcher's career BABIP.

Ricky Nolasco always has a higher ERA than FIP. His career ERA is 4.3, a half run higher than FIP would predict. He has a career BABIP of .314. Cueto is an example on the other side, his ERA is always better. His career FIP is 3.8 but his career ERA is 3.3, he has a career .265 BABIP. The FIP-ERA differences typically involve a high or low BABIP. FIP is most accurate when BABIP is around .300. The Porcello contract won't be horrible but it looks like it won't be very good either.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Looks like it's 5/$110. The annual $$$ seems about right, but is anyone else surprised that he settled for a 5-year deal? He's a little younger than most of the other FAs. Even with the QO, I thought there'd be teams willing to go 6 years. Maybe he really likes Detroit?? Or didn't want to get caught in a game of musical chairs...
 

Apisith

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Does this set the contract for the other top tier guys?

Does this mean Cueto will settle for an AAV in the $22m range but maybe with one or two more years?

Is Price really worth $8m/year and an extra year or two?
 

jk333

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Does this set the contract for the other top tier guys? Does this mean Cueto will settle for an AAV in the $22m range but maybe with one or two more years? Is Price really worth $8m/year and an extra year or two?
No one really knows. Zimmerman settled for a pretty low contract but he's just one person who possibly really wanted a Midwestern team. Are the number of good pitchers going to lower the contract offers? I think we'll know a lot more after the next big ticket starter signs.

As an agent for Price, I would still be looking for a 200 million dollar contract. I'd expect that Cueto's agent is trying to "beat" the Lester contract.
 

TheYaz67

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He wanted to go back to the Midwest.
I was amused by all the folks (many of them Nats fans) arguing that "he never said that" or "that is just a rumor". I was fairly sure that "rumor" had a basis in fact (perhaps the Nats GM let it slip in an interview or something) and that he would sign with a "competitive" Midwest team, meaning either the Cubs, Tigers or Cards, and sure enough....
 

InsideTheParker

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I was amused by all the folks (many of them Nats fans) arguing that "he never said that" or "that is just a rumor". I was fairly sure that "rumor" had a basis in fact (perhaps the Nats GM let it slip in an interview or something) and that he would sign with a "competitive" Midwest team, meaning either the Cubs, Tigers or Cards, and sure enough....
Hey, I posted this "rumor" on Sosh about a month or more ago and most pooh-poohed it, saying players go for the most money, always. No, not always.