Updated predictions on which of the five contenders will grab the last two spots? I think this is a legitimate five way race at this point. My guess is that Arsenal ends up 3rd (mainly due to having the easiest schedule and, Saturday aside, relatively strong recent form) and Southampton squeaks 4th (current leaders, second easiest schedule, only club in no other competitions) but no outcome would really surprise me. Below I list some strengths and weaknesses of each club, as well as their remaining "tough" fixtures (against other Top 7 teams or away to the stronger mid-table clubs of West Ham, Swansea, Stoke, Newcastle, or Everton).
Arsenal (tough fixtures: @Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea, @United)
They have the easiest schedule of any contender, with only two tough away fixtures, and have been in good form recently, aside from the beating they took in the NLD. Wenger also has the most experience of any of these managers in this kind of "trophy" race. I think the recent form plus the easy schedule will ultimately prevail The biggest pitfalls are injuries and a potentially congested fixture list as they're still in three competitions.
Southampton (tough fixtures: Liverpool, @Chelsea, @Everton, @Stoke, Spurs, @City)
The current leaders, one of the easier sets of remaining fixtures, and with no other competitions to distract them. I've been waiting for them to fall off and it just hasn't happened. They lost two in a row while missing both Schneiderlin and Wanyama but that pair is back now. The spine of their team is so strong that I think they'll grind out results and be in contention for the duration as long as they stay relatively healthy. It will be interesting if they're fighting for a spot on the last day and facing a City team with nothing to play for (but which may like to see one of its big rivals fall short).
United (tough fixtures: @Swansea, @Newcastle, Tottenham, @Liverpool, City, @Chelsea, @Everton, Arsenal)
They arguably have the most talent on paper (perhaps bar Arsenal) and they have the big advantage of not playing in Europe. But the fixture list is really tough and their form has been pretty mediocre for a while now. I keep waiting for them to improve and it just hasn't happened so far. They have three weeks to get it figured out (and to build some cushion over opponents) because the fixture list in March and April is just brutal.
Spurs (tough fixtures: @Liverpool, @United, @Newcastle, Southampton, City, @Stoke, @Everton)
I can't figure this team out - smack around top clubs at home, then lose to weak sides. I was very impressed by the way they just took it to Arsenal this past weekend and I think there's reason to believe that Pochettino has figured out a system and set of players that works for them. If they had one of the easier remaining schedules or weren't still playing in Europe on Thursdays, I'd be tempted to pick them for Top 4. With both of those factors working against them, however, I think it will be tough.
Liverpool (tough fixtures: Spurs, @Southampton, City, @Swansea, United, @Arsenal, @Chelsea, @Stoke)
Almost everything I said about Spurs I could also say about Liverpool. Promising if somewhat inconsistent form in the last month or so, manager seems to be finding a good system right in time, but a tough schedule plus European Thursdays. They also start a few points further behind.
Arsenal (tough fixtures: @Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea, @United)
They have the easiest schedule of any contender, with only two tough away fixtures, and have been in good form recently, aside from the beating they took in the NLD. Wenger also has the most experience of any of these managers in this kind of "trophy" race. I think the recent form plus the easy schedule will ultimately prevail The biggest pitfalls are injuries and a potentially congested fixture list as they're still in three competitions.
Southampton (tough fixtures: Liverpool, @Chelsea, @Everton, @Stoke, Spurs, @City)
The current leaders, one of the easier sets of remaining fixtures, and with no other competitions to distract them. I've been waiting for them to fall off and it just hasn't happened. They lost two in a row while missing both Schneiderlin and Wanyama but that pair is back now. The spine of their team is so strong that I think they'll grind out results and be in contention for the duration as long as they stay relatively healthy. It will be interesting if they're fighting for a spot on the last day and facing a City team with nothing to play for (but which may like to see one of its big rivals fall short).
United (tough fixtures: @Swansea, @Newcastle, Tottenham, @Liverpool, City, @Chelsea, @Everton, Arsenal)
They arguably have the most talent on paper (perhaps bar Arsenal) and they have the big advantage of not playing in Europe. But the fixture list is really tough and their form has been pretty mediocre for a while now. I keep waiting for them to improve and it just hasn't happened so far. They have three weeks to get it figured out (and to build some cushion over opponents) because the fixture list in March and April is just brutal.
Spurs (tough fixtures: @Liverpool, @United, @Newcastle, Southampton, City, @Stoke, @Everton)
I can't figure this team out - smack around top clubs at home, then lose to weak sides. I was very impressed by the way they just took it to Arsenal this past weekend and I think there's reason to believe that Pochettino has figured out a system and set of players that works for them. If they had one of the easier remaining schedules or weren't still playing in Europe on Thursdays, I'd be tempted to pick them for Top 4. With both of those factors working against them, however, I think it will be tough.
Liverpool (tough fixtures: Spurs, @Southampton, City, @Swansea, United, @Arsenal, @Chelsea, @Stoke)
Almost everything I said about Spurs I could also say about Liverpool. Promising if somewhat inconsistent form in the last month or so, manager seems to be finding a good system right in time, but a tough schedule plus European Thursdays. They also start a few points further behind.