The Pass Defense Under Bill Belichick

MentalDisabldLst · Mar 12, 2015

So based on that, it's suggestive that, all else equal, Belichick:

- Does not care about yards given up
- Cares very much about Comp%, YPA and Sacks
- Believes the above are likelier inputs towards preventing scoring
- Thinks INTs are nice but not essential, so long as you can limit YPA

There are caveats a mile long, but since most TV "analysis" is based around talking about rankings based on yards, it's helpful to remember that points are the ultimate measuring stick and there are a number of things more highly correlated with points (scored or allowed) than raw yardage totals.

I'm willing to bet that if you dove a bit further in, you'd probably find that:

- Successful seasons will average a much better net turnover rate (some of which, of course, will be luck)
- Successful seasons will share a much more favorable distribution of opponent drive length
- Key inputs to special teams success (drive position start, net punting, FG rate above expectation for its distance) will be meaningfully higher in successful seasons

Building on DotB's point last night, I'd probably be most interested to look at some analysis of general defensive "approach", i.e. whether the pass defense in a given year was primarily predicated on pass rush vs tight secondary coverage, and see whether there were meaningful differences in YPA, Comp%, Passer Rating, etc between those groups of seasons. Or given BB's propensity for changing game plans from week to week, seeing if you can split the game plan types into "stop the run" vs "contain scrambling" vs "disrupt routes" vs "favor tight man covg", or similar groups based on what you see in the video, and break down their stats that way. Would obviously be a much bigger project, but might illuminate (or even prove the worth of) some of BB's core tactical philosophy.

Reverend · Mar 12, 2015

Have told ever checked out phrenile's sig?

Because seriously, I can't read that.

SirPsychoSquints · Mar 12, 2015

http://sonsofsamhorn.net/soshchart/

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The Pass Defense Under Bill Belichick

ivanvamp

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MentalDisabldLst

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Reverend

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ivanvamp

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SirPsychoSquints

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ivanvamp

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