I alluded to this in the Deadline line, but thought I would separate the topic. If you have any reason to believe this season is worth salvaging, the next ten games will be pretty key.
The most obvious thing is that the non-waiver trade deadline happens on the 11th day (which is incidentally an off-day)
BOS: 4@TOR, 3@TBR, 3 TOR
BAL: 3@LAA, 4@SEA, Off, 3 LAA
TOR: 4 BOS, 3@NYY, 3@BOS
NYY: 4 TEX, 3 TOR, 3@TEX
TBR: Off, 2 @STL, Off, 3 BOS, 3 MIL
CLE: 3 @MIN, 4 @KCR, 3 SEA
Given this, Ben should have a pretty good idea of how much of a seller he should be on deadline day. Obviously, the worst situation for decision making is if the Sox win 6 or 7 of these games. Even if they win 4 or 5, they are treading water and time to make up ground is running out. Obviously, if they only win 0-3 of these games, they will lose ground and take themselves out any way. If they win 6 or 7, they will almost by default jump ahead of teams in the standings or the other games will all work out that you get all of the wild card contenders within a couple of games of each other, but with the Sox at the rear. This is a tough situation because you are kind of in contention, but can't afford any poor streaks since you have so much competition. With 8 or more (this means you make up at least 3 games on TOR and at least 1 on NYY), you get the same situation but with the Sox moving closer to the middle of the pack.
So, I guess I will pose this question to the amateur GMs. How do you handle this? Do you see what happens this week at the Rogers Centre? Have you already made up your mind? And please let's leave all the wishcasting for players to other threads. We don't need another place to discuss pie in the sky ideas. Let's just take for granted that if someone comes around and blows the Sox away the odds are long enough that the Sox will make the trade. We can also assume that Peavy is on the block for whatever no matter how the games go.
The most obvious thing is that the non-waiver trade deadline happens on the 11th day (which is incidentally an off-day)
BOS: 4@TOR, 3@TBR, 3 TOR
BAL: 3@LAA, 4@SEA, Off, 3 LAA
TOR: 4 BOS, 3@NYY, 3@BOS
NYY: 4 TEX, 3 TOR, 3@TEX
TBR: Off, 2 @STL, Off, 3 BOS, 3 MIL
CLE: 3 @MIN, 4 @KCR, 3 SEA
Given this, Ben should have a pretty good idea of how much of a seller he should be on deadline day. Obviously, the worst situation for decision making is if the Sox win 6 or 7 of these games. Even if they win 4 or 5, they are treading water and time to make up ground is running out. Obviously, if they only win 0-3 of these games, they will lose ground and take themselves out any way. If they win 6 or 7, they will almost by default jump ahead of teams in the standings or the other games will all work out that you get all of the wild card contenders within a couple of games of each other, but with the Sox at the rear. This is a tough situation because you are kind of in contention, but can't afford any poor streaks since you have so much competition. With 8 or more (this means you make up at least 3 games on TOR and at least 1 on NYY), you get the same situation but with the Sox moving closer to the middle of the pack.
So, I guess I will pose this question to the amateur GMs. How do you handle this? Do you see what happens this week at the Rogers Centre? Have you already made up your mind? And please let's leave all the wishcasting for players to other threads. We don't need another place to discuss pie in the sky ideas. Let's just take for granted that if someone comes around and blows the Sox away the odds are long enough that the Sox will make the trade. We can also assume that Peavy is on the block for whatever no matter how the games go.